All Things Russia & Ukraine

[a fan]

You may wish to reconsider your all-or-nothing, black-or-white, no-nuance interpretation of isolationism.

Happy to. Since the history of our country, we’ve had varying degrees of isolationism, and Joe Biden is carrying that tradition onward here in 2023.

We’re all set now.

Edit to add....you should probably read some of your citations. Some of them mock the idea that America has ever been isolationist, let along during Trump.

But I rest easy knowing that the next few Presidents will also be isolationists. And I don't need to know their names or their actual policies. I'll just use my more nuanced understand of the word isolationism, and find that all of them will be isolationists in some form or another....

[Seacoaster(1)]

The Russian winter offensive appears to have failed:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgr ... ril-1-2023

"Russian, Ukrainian, and Western sources observed on April 1 that the Russian winter offensive has failed to achieve the Kremlin’s goals of seizing the Donetsk and Luhansk oblast administrative borders by March 31. Chief of the Russian General Staff Valery Gerasimov had announced on December 22 that Russian forces were focusing most of their efforts on seizing Donetsk Oblast, and Russian forces launched their winter offensive operation in early February along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna-Lyman line and on select frontlines in western Donetsk Oblast.[1] The UK Ministry of Defense (MoD) observed that Gerasimov has failed to extend Russian control over Donbas during his appointment as the theater commander in Ukraine and has achieved only marginal gains by expending mobilized personnel.[2] Ukrainian intelligence representative Andriy Yusov stated that Gerasimov missed the Kremlin’s deadline to capture Donbas by March 31.[3]

Russian milbloggers fretted that Russian forces must finish their offensive operations in Bakhmut and Avdiivka to prepare for the Ukrainian counteroffensives they expect between Orthodox Easter on April 16 and Soviet Labor Day on May 9.[4] Milbloggers highlighted their disappointment that there have not been any decisive battles throughout the winter and observed that Russia will not be capable of continuing a large-scale offensive operation if it is unable to secure Bakhmut and Avdiivka in the coming weeks.

....

Growing Russian speculation about Russian military command changes likely indicates that Russia may soon reshuffle its senior military command due to the failed winter offensive. Russian milbloggers claimed on April 1 that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) recalled Russian Airborne (VDV) Forces commander Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky from leave on March 30 after the Russian MoD reportedly replaced him with Lieutenant General Oleg Makarevich on January 13.[8] The Russian MoD never confirmed Teplinsky’s dismissal, and it is likely that the MoD placed him on leave so it could recall him to command the VDV whenever it deemed necessary. Russian milbloggers claimed that Teplinsky immediately flew to the Russian Joint Grouping Headquarters in Rostov-on-Don, Krasnodar Krai to assume command of the VDV and that he is already planning future operations.[9] One milblogger claimed that Chief of the General Staff of the Ground Forces and former Central Military District (CMD) Commander Colonel General Alexander Lapin flew with Teplinsky to the Joint Grouping Headquarters.[10] The Russian MoD replaced Lapin with Lieutenant General Andrey Mordvichev as CMD commander officially on February 17 following intense public criticism of Lapin for his management of the Svatove-Kreminna line in the fall of 2022."

[old salt]

Big NATO welcoming party for Finland.

https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2023 ... ce/384815/
One day after joining NATO, Finland preps for a record-breaking air exercise. The newest alliance member will join the U.S., Germany, and others for Air Defender 2023, a 10-day exercise in June that will also see the U.S. Air National Guard's largest-ever trans-Atlantic deployment. More than 100 ANG aircraft—A-10s, F-15Cs, F-35s, upgraded F-16s, KC-46s, and more—will make the trip.

Rapid practice. The exercise will test the ANG's "ability to rapidly deploy and rapidly employ" forces—as it might do if the Ukraine war spreads to NATO, said ANG director Lt. Gen. Michael Loh.

[old salt]

https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2023 ... ys/384681/

Ukraine Victory Unlikely This Year, Milley Says
“I'm not saying it can't be done. I'm just saying it's a very difficult task,” says top U.S. general.

Ukraine is unlikely to expel all Russian forces from its territory this year, the top U.S. officer said Friday, giving a grim reality check to the expressed goal and hopeful ambitions of policymakers, diplomats, and defense leaders from Washington to Kyiv.

“I don't think it's likely to be done in the near term for this year,” Gen. Mark Milley said Friday in an interview with Defense One.

“Zelenskyy has publicly stated many times that the Ukrainian objective is to kick every Russian out of Russian occupied Ukraine. And that is a significant military task. Very, very difficult military task. You're looking at a couple hundred thousand Russians who are still in Russian-occupied Ukraine. I'm not saying it can't be done. I'm just saying it's a very difficult task,” the Joint Chiefs chairman said. “But that is their objective. They certainly have a right to that, that is their country. And they are on the moral high ground here.”

In November, Milley said in a press conference that the probability Ukraine was going to retake Crimea and expel all Russian forces “anytime soon is not high.” His comment stirred speculation that the United States was pressuring Zelenskyy toward negotiating territorial concessions with Russia.

On Friday, Milley said Russia “has failed” strategically, operationally, “and now they’re failing tactically, as well.” That followed his testimony to the House Armed Services Committee that Russian forces were “getting slaughtered” by Ukrainian troops, due in part to poor training and human-wave tactics.

Milley was asked whether the ATACMS long-range missile would become the latest advanced weapon initially withheld from and later sent to Ukraine.

“Well, there's a policy decision to date not to, so far. And I would never predict anything on the table, off the table, for the future. But from a military standpoint, we have relatively few ATACMS, we do have to make sure that we maintain our own munitions inventories, as well. And the range of the weapon—I think there's a little bit of overstating of what an ATACMS can do and can't do. You're looking at a single shot, so think of a musket versus a repeating rifle. Whereas the GMLRS fires six shots, and ATACMs fires one. Now the range of the ATACMS is longer, but there's other systems they can get you that range. There’s UAVs, for example, that could do it, and the Brits have a couple of systems. So, those are some things that we're looking at to give them a little bit more legs. But right now, we're not providing the ATACMs.”

[Typical Lax Dad]

Big NATO welcoming party for Finland.

https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2023 ... ce/384815/
One day after joining NATO, Finland preps for a record-breaking air exercise. The newest alliance member will join the U.S., Germany, and others for Air Defender 2023, a 10-day exercise in June that will also see the U.S. Air National Guard's largest-ever trans-Atlantic deployment. More than 100 ANG aircraft—A-10s, F-15Cs, F-35s, upgraded F-16s, KC-46s, and more—will make the trip.

Rapid practice. The exercise will test the ANG's "ability to rapidly deploy and rapidly employ" forces—as it might do if the Ukraine war spreads to NATO, said ANG director Lt. Gen. Michael Loh.

This is going to make Putin really angry now….

[youthathletics]

https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2023 ... ys/384681/

Ukraine Victory Unlikely This Year, Milley Says
“I'm not saying it can't be done. I'm just saying it's a very difficult task,” says top U.S. general.

Ukraine is unlikely to expel all Russian forces from its territory this year, the top U.S. officer said Friday, giving a grim reality check to the expressed goal and hopeful ambitions of policymakers, diplomats, and defense leaders from Washington to Kyiv.

........

This is exactly what the US wants. Drain Russain cash....taking the long look, use up much our out of dated weapons, get newer stuff battle tested without our people getting killed & reason to continue defense spending ...even more.

[MDlaxfan76]

https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2023 ... ys/384681/

Ukraine Victory Unlikely This Year, Milley Says
“I'm not saying it can't be done. I'm just saying it's a very difficult task,” says top U.S. general.

Ukraine is unlikely to expel all Russian forces from its territory this year, the top U.S. officer said Friday, giving a grim reality check to the expressed goal and hopeful ambitions of policymakers, diplomats, and defense leaders from Washington to Kyiv.

........

This is exactly what the US wants. Drain Russain cash....taking the long look, use up much our out of dated weapons, get newer stuff battle tested without our people getting killed & reason to continue defense spending ...even more.

That certainly makes sense as an undercurrent.

I'm not willing to say that's actually why we do or should support Ukraine, but these are at least unconscious reasons why some see this dragging out as beneficial strategically and/or economically for themselves (defense industry).

I'd much rather see this end swiftly, but decisively, the Russian military aggression thoroughly routed by Ukraine with Western financial and technological support.

[old salt]

...at least unconscious reasons why some see this dragging out as beneficial strategically...

That's a mixed blessing. The Russians (& their Chinese customers) now see the relative limitations & shortcomings of their weapons & tactics, & can adapt, if they choose. It can also lull us into a sense of security which may not be warranted.

[MDlaxfan76]

...at least unconscious reasons why some see this dragging out as beneficial strategically...

That's a mixed blessing. The Russians (& their Chinese customers) now see the relative limitations & shortcomings of their weapons & tactics, & can adapt, if they choose. It can also lull us into a sense of security which may not be warranted.

Agreed; there are always flip sides to such upsides...

[old salt]

Per DW, 6 more Polish Mig-29's in final maint before transfer to Ukraine, which will bring total Polish Mig-29s donated to 14.
Poland has committed to donate all of their remaining Mig-29's.

Per Reuters, of 13 Slovakian Mig-29's promised, 4 have been delivered so far.

Now if Bulgaria would commit to donate their 11 or 12 Mig-29's, that would be all of NATO's Mig -29's
...except possibly the last 14 remaining Polish Mig-29's with extended service lives & upgraded with NATO compatible IFF transponders
Those remaining westernized Migs might be a useful bridge to western fighter jets for Ukraine's post war air force in transition.
http://en.aviation-report.com/modernize ... air-force/

https://breakingdefense.com/2023/03/ukr ... thin-days/
The UK is also exploring the possibility of supplying Royal Air Force (RAF) Eurofighter Typhoon Tranche 1 fighter jets to European MiG-29 operators, so the Soviet-era aircraft can, in turn, be gifted to Ukraine.

There are two major questions now for Poland and Ukraine. The first is whether other MiG-29 operators Bulgaria and Slovakia will agree to send their jets to Ukraine. The second is just how effective these jets can actually be.

As Breaking Defense reported last March, the Bulgarian Air Force has 15 MiG-29A and 3 MiG-29UB jets on hand, but only a few Fulcrums are airworthy and the remaining jets are seen more as potential sources of spare parts. According to denniknk.sk the Slovak Air Force, meanwhile, has only 9 MiG-29AS and a 2 MiG-29UBS in stock — which were all officially retired last August. (An agreement with fellow NATO members Poland and the Czech Republic was signed in order to establish joint patrols of Slovakian airspace, until the delivery of American F-16s to the Slovak Air Force in 2024.)

But according to Slovakian defense minister Jaroslav Naď, a proponent of sending the jets, Bratislava eventually could send up to 13 aircraft to Ukraine — 10 (theoretically) airworthy, modernized MiGs and three non-modernized aircraft from long-term storage that would serve as a source of spare parts.

Poland has 22 MiG-29A and 6 MiG-29UB in service, but as Duda noted, not all of them are actively being flown. Half of that fleet (the non ex-German aircraft) were equipped with modern avionics and were refurbished and overhauled in 2013-2014 with service life of their airframe extended to 40 years or 4,000 flight hours and the addition of IFF Mark XIIA mod 5 systems. And it is believed modernized MiG-29s will not be transferred to Ukraine.

[MDlaxfan76]

man, the reluctance to provide the weaponry to Ukraine that would best enable them to dominate the skies and drive Russia out...

I suspect that for all the trust building that's been done, the western allies really don't want to tempt Ukraine with striking into the heart of Russia in retaliation for the destruction of huge parts of Ukraine.

so, grind it out with Soviet era planes, tanks, etc...maybe with some 'upgrades'...

On the other hand, in a couple of years, the NATO countries will be armed to the teeth with the most advanced platforms...dramatic change in capabilities. Defense contractors will be making serious dough for quite awhile...

[old salt]

I don't care how many hot shot Ukrainian pilots are drinking buddies with Sean Penn's CA ANG pals,
Mig-29's are the only viable option in the near term. Too many differences in western fighters (as the Polish conversion illustrates).
F-16's, Eurofighter Typhoons, Mirage 2000's, early model F-18's or other used retiring western fighters are the best candidates for Ukraine's postwar air force.

The costs of standing up a NATO standard air force, in unfamiliar western aircraft, will be staggering.
In this war, there's much more bang for the buck to be gained elsewhere.

It would be a heavy lift for the US or NATO to dominate the skies over Ukraine, given the air defense systems both sides are employing.

As more wealthy EU allies are buying F-35's, their used, reconditioned F-16's are replacing the Migs in the poorer E EU allies.

[MDlaxfan76]

I don't care how many hot shot Ukrainian pilots are drinking buddies with Sean Penn's CA ANG pals,
Mig-29's are the only viable option in the near term. Too many differences in western fighters (as the Polish conversion illustrates).
F-16's, Eurofighter Typhoons, Mirage 2000's, early model F-18's or other used retiring western fighters are the best candidates for Ukraine's postwar air force.

The costs of standing up a NATO standard air force, in unfamiliar western aircraft, will be staggering.
In this war, there's much more bang for the buck to be gained elsewhere.

It would be a heavy lift for the US or NATO to dominate the skies over Ukraine, given the air defense systems both sides are employing.

As more wealthy EU allies are buying F-35's, their used, reconditioned F-16's are replacing the Migs in the poorer E EU allies.

Yes, I do understand the turnover logic.

So, the question is what ARE the best bang for the buck systems to do the most damage, precisely, as deep into the threat area as necessary, to drive Russia out of Ukraine...as soon as possible?

Does this need to push out the Russian fleet, for instance? Kerch Bridge? Strike points of massed troops? Command and control?

[DocBarrister]

I don't care how many hot shot Ukrainian pilots are drinking buddies with Sean Penn's CA ANG pals,
Mig-29's are the only viable option in the near term. Too many differences in western fighters (as the Polish conversion illustrates).
F-16's, Eurofighter Typhoons, Mirage 2000's, early model F-18's or other used retiring western fighters are the best candidates for Ukraine's postwar air force.

The costs of standing up a NATO standard air force, in unfamiliar western aircraft, will be staggering.
In this war, there's much more bang for the buck to be gained elsewhere.

It would be a heavy lift for the US or NATO to dominate the skies over Ukraine, given the air defense systems both sides are employing.

As more wealthy EU allies are buying F-35's, their used, reconditioned F-16's are replacing the Migs in the poorer E EU allies.

Based on what I have read, I’m think maybe it would be more time- and cost-efficient to give Ukraine advanced armed drones rather than F-16s.

Having said that, the United States recently evaluated two purportedly “average” Ukrainian pilots for three weeks to determine whether they could be trained to fly F-16s. The conclusion … yes, and within six months. I suspect it is inevitable that we will be sending F-16s to Ukraine.

The pilots, who have already returned to Ukraine, spent three weeks training in the United States.

“They trained on an F-16 simulator to fly with two pilots and operate weapons systems,” said the general.

“The results were very good: Ukrainian pilots can learn to fly and operate weapon systems on the F-16 in less than six months.”

General Holubtsov noted that the pilots' skills were highly regarded and that their experience could help shorten the training process.

“The pilots’ skills were evaluated very highly, and these guys were average pilots. Each pilot is unique, so an individual training plan has to be created for each one. However, based on this assessment, we can significantly shorten the training time, depending on the previous experience of Ukrainian pilots,” he said.

https://news.yahoo.com/ukrainian-pilots ... 00869.html

DocBarrister

[old salt]

I don't care how many hot shot Ukrainian pilots are drinking buddies with Sean Penn's CA ANG pals,
Mig-29's are the only viable option in the near term. Too many differences in western fighters (as the Polish conversion illustrates).
F-16's, Eurofighter Typhoons, Mirage 2000's, early model F-18's or other used retiring western fighters are the best candidates for Ukraine's postwar air force.

The costs of standing up a NATO standard air force, in unfamiliar western aircraft, will be staggering.
In this war, there's much more bang for the buck to be gained elsewhere.

It would be a heavy lift for the US or NATO to dominate the skies over Ukraine, given the air defense systems both sides are employing.

As more wealthy EU allies are buying F-35's, their used, reconditioned F-16's are replacing the Migs in the poorer E EU allies.

Yes, I do understand the turnover logic.

So, the question is what ARE the best bang for the buck systems to do the most damage, precisely, as deep into the threat area as necessary, to drive Russia out of Ukraine...as soon as possible?

Does this need to push out the Russian fleet, for instance? Kerch Bridge? Strike points of massed troops? Command and control?

Given the weapons we're providing (& those we are not), it appears that we don't want the Ukrainians to be able to attack Crimea, the Kerch Bridge, or the Russian fleet. Probably based on a fear of escalation & inability to limit what the Ukrainians would attack.

[a fan]

Pentagon makes DOJ referral over Ukraine war classified document leak
The military documents appear to contain sensitive information about U.S. and NATO material supporting Ukraine


Our classified doc system is flawless. Nothing to see here. And you're nuts if you suggest it's not working well, and needs updating.


https://www.foxnews.com/politics/pentag ... ument-leak

[youthathletics]

Pentagon makes DOJ referral over Ukraine war classified document leak
The military documents appear to contain sensitive information about U.S. and NATO material supporting Ukraine


Our classified doc system is flawless. Nothing to see here. And you're nuts if you suggest it's not working well, and needs updating.


https://www.foxnews.com/politics/pentag ... ument-leak

it’s like guns….bad people screwing up something that requires a friggen head on their shoulders to use appropriately.

[a fan]

Pentagon makes DOJ referral over Ukraine war classified document leak
The military documents appear to contain sensitive information about U.S. and NATO material supporting Ukraine


Our classified doc system is flawless. Nothing to see here. And you're nuts if you suggest it's not working well, and needs updating.


https://www.foxnews.com/politics/pentag ... ument-leak

it’s like guns….bad people screwing up something that requires people with a head on their shoulders.

Systems have flaws, and ALL systems should have continual improvement. This system isn't working at the level that this taxpayer expects...doubly so after gaining an understanding of its obvious flaws.

Agree to disagree.

[youthathletics]

Pentagon makes DOJ referral over Ukraine war classified document leak
The military documents appear to contain sensitive information about U.S. and NATO material supporting Ukraine


Our classified doc system is flawless. Nothing to see here. And you're nuts if you suggest it's not working well, and needs updating.


https://www.foxnews.com/politics/pentag ... ument-leak

it’s like guns….bad people screwing up something that requires people with a head on their shoulders.

Systems have flaws, and ALL systems should have continual improvement. This system isn't working at the level that this taxpayer expects...doubly so after gaining an understanding of its obvious flaws.

Agree to disagree.

I agree it has flaws, certainly, but, one you can never manage your way out of. Ban ‘classified’ intel and ban guns. Do we still have a problem….yep, you can not control people, they will ALWAYS find a way.

[DocBarrister]

Pentagon makes DOJ referral over Ukraine war classified document leak
The military documents appear to contain sensitive information about U.S. and NATO material supporting Ukraine


Our classified doc system is flawless. Nothing to see here. And you're nuts if you suggest it's not working well, and needs updating.


https://www.foxnews.com/politics/pentag ... ument-leak

it’s like guns….bad people screwing up something that requires people with a head on their shoulders.

Systems have flaws, and ALL systems should have continual improvement. This system isn't working at the level that this taxpayer expects...doubly so after gaining an understanding of its obvious flaws.

Agree to disagree.

I agree it has flaws, certainly, but, one you can never manage your way out of. Ban ‘classified’ intel and ban guns. Do we still have a problem….yep, you can not control people, they will ALWAYS find a way.

This is contrary to all the evidence. Japan, Australia, and the UK have all the mental health problems we do. All the “loner” problems we do. All the drug problems we do. All the poverty problems we do.

But they don’t have the gun shootings we do because they all passed strict laws limiting access to guns.

The United States is alone in having so many mass shootings because the United States has SO MANY GUNS.

The PROBLEM IS THE GUNS.

Any assertion to the contrary is a lie.

DocBarrister