LaxPower Back-Up Stick

Biden and Kamela promise to pick the economy up from the “Trump doldrums.”

Let’s hope so.

Dow up 470pts (1.6%) today, puts us at 29,550.

Undoubtedly, it will soar in January.

You think the market activity the last week arms a half has to do with Trump tearing apart the integrity of US democratic process to stick with the lie he created or because the world figured out within three days of the election that Biden won, even if he doesn’t take office until Jan?

Of course it could be a pro Biden swing. Or a pro trump Swing. He had things going the right direction before the Rona hit.

All I read is it’s probably excitement about split gov and no likely major policy changes.

kramerica.inc wrote: ↑Mon Nov 16, 2020 11:47 pm Of course it could be a pro Biden swing. Or a pro trump Swing. He had things going the right direction before the Rona hit.

All I read is it’s probably excitement about split gov and no likely major policy changes.

Which things were 'going the right direction'?

corporate profits?

yes.

But how could that suggest a pro Trump swing now that he's lost the election?

Covid did hit, Trump bungled, and we're entering a brutal winter with rolling economic impacts again as well as the health aspects. But Trmp lost and the market knows it.

However, the vaccine news is indeed giving the market hope, and the election of Biden provides hope that distribution will not be bungled and, in the meantime, public health measure will get better managed, if late.

I agree that it's possible that divided government is reassuring versus a landslide win by the Dems with Dems crowing about a mandate to dramatically reshape the economy. Regardless of the merits, that would scare the stock market.

Everything Trump had going in "the right direction" was on borrowed dime too. "Tax and Spend" vs. "Tax Cut and Spend More" seems to be our choices nowadays.

kramerica.inc wrote: ↑Mon Nov 16, 2020 11:47 pm Of course it could be a pro Biden swing. Or a pro trump Swing. He had things going the right direction before the Rona hit.

All I read is it’s probably excitement about split gov and no likely major policy changes.

Lunacy

Sectors and companies at risk of being impacted by new regulations and sweeping policy changes under a Democratic majority probably HATE the certainty that a split gov't (no new regulations) gives them.

Except that regulations are done primarily by executive branch agencies without congressional approval. Just like exec orders.

Face it. Market likes Joe.

ggait wrote: ↑Tue Nov 17, 2020 10:21 am Except that regulations are done primarily by executive branch agencies without congressional approval. Just like exec orders.

Face it. Market likes Joe.

It is the Biden Bounce.

Typical Lax Dad wrote: ↑Tue Nov 17, 2020 10:28 am

ggait wrote: ↑Tue Nov 17, 2020 10:21 am Except that regulations are done primarily by executive branch agencies without congressional approval. Just like exec orders.

Face it. Market likes Joe.

It is the Biden Bounce.

Let's hope its more than just a bounce. Steady growth like we got the past 4 years and generally under Obama too would be preferred.

kramerica.inc wrote: ↑Tue Nov 17, 2020 10:31 am

Typical Lax Dad wrote: ↑Tue Nov 17, 2020 10:28 am

ggait wrote: ↑Tue Nov 17, 2020 10:21 am Except that regulations are done primarily by executive branch agencies without congressional approval. Just like exec orders.

Face it. Market likes Joe.

It is the Biden Bounce.

Let's hope its more than just a bounce. Steady growth like we got the past 4 years and generally under Obama too would be preferred.

The market performance under Obama, at virtually every interval, outperformed Trump. GDP growth was marginally better under Trump and he had the benefit of tax reform which was supposed to juice the economy. I was being facetious with my bounce comment. Waiting to hear back from some friends that were foaming at the mouth about how the market responded to Trump in 2016..... I haven’t heard peep.

I hope the economy and the market continue to do well. Right now its kind of a disconnect. An infrastructure program will pay dividends for us, IMO.

Typical Lax Dad wrote: ↑Tue Nov 17, 2020 10:37 am

kramerica.inc wrote: ↑Tue Nov 17, 2020 10:31 am

Typical Lax Dad wrote: ↑Tue Nov 17, 2020 10:28 am

ggait wrote: ↑Tue Nov 17, 2020 10:21 am Except that regulations are done primarily by executive branch agencies without congressional approval. Just like exec orders.

Face it. Market likes Joe.

It is the Biden Bounce.

Let's hope its more than just a bounce. Steady growth like we got the past 4 years and generally under Obama too would be preferred.

The market performance under Obama, at virtually every interval, outperformed Trump. GDP growth was marginally better under Trump and he had the benefit of tax reform which was supposed to juice the economy. I was being facetious with my bounce comment. Waiting to hear back from some friends that were foaming at the mouth about how the market responded to Trump in 2016..... I haven’t heard peep.

I hope the economy and the market continue to do well. Right now its kind of a disconnect. An infrastructure program will pay dividends for us, IMO.

We've been needing an infrastructure program for years.
Agree it would do wonders for the country, the citizens, and the economy.

kramerica.inc wrote: ↑Mon Nov 16, 2020 11:47 pm Of course it could be a pro Biden swing. Or a pro trump Swing. He had things going the right direction before the Rona hit.

All I read is it’s probably excitement about split gov and no likely major policy changes.

Aside from the stock market, which is not the economy, can you point to quantitative or measurable items that indicate the president had things going in the right direction economically? And I would point out that economists who lean both Ways have exposed massive flaws in the measurement of unemployment rate, they are all working towards a better measurement to eventually be adopted by the government which would apply underemployed, meaning people working but below the level they need to support themselves effectively. By this measurement we weren’t doing very good.

So not applying a flawed UE rate and understanding the stock market doesn’t mean anything, what did he have going well?

GDP growth?
Stability of the dollar?
Budget deficit?
Productivity?
Inflation? (Why did we have Powell lowering Fed Funds prior to Rona if inflation was stable at the long run benchmark? Deflation is 100x worse than inflation when it hits you surely know)
Other metrics?

holmes435 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 17, 2020 9:01 am Everything Trump had going in "the right direction" was on borrowed dime too. "Tax and Spend" vs. "Tax Cut and Spend More" seems to be our choices nowadays.

The last part is what bugs me. At this point taxes have to go up, unfortunately (thanks boomer generation, will never stop on this one, the 1980s ruined this country for everyone afterwards), but it shouldn’t have been that way and if we have to hit future generations harder than prior ones got as taxes were being reduced and spending went up then some degree of sterilization and reduced spending has to occur too.

Farfromgeneva wrote: ↑Tue Nov 17, 2020 10:59 am

holmes435 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 17, 2020 9:01 am Everything Trump had going in "the right direction" was on borrowed dime too. "Tax and Spend" vs. "Tax Cut and Spend More" seems to be our choices nowadays.

The last part is what bugs me. At this point taxes have to go up, unfortunately (thanks boomer generation, will never stop on this one, the 1980s ruined this country for everyone afterwards), but it shouldn’t have been that way and if we have to hit future generations harder than prior ones got as taxes were being reduced and spending went up then some degree of sterilization and reduced spending has to occur too.

The eighties?

2 decades into uninterrupted democrat power in the house and senate. With another decade and a half to go.

Pelosi Biden and Schumer in the middle of "ruining it for everyone afterwards"

kramerica.inc wrote: ↑Tue Nov 17, 2020 10:31 am

Typical Lax Dad wrote: ↑Tue Nov 17, 2020 10:28 am

ggait wrote: ↑Tue Nov 17, 2020 10:21 am Except that regulations are done primarily by executive branch agencies without congressional approval. Just like exec orders.

Face it. Market likes Joe.

It is the Biden Bounce.

Let's hope its more than just a bounce. Steady growth like we got the past 4 years and generally under Obama too would be preferred.

From Q3 2018 to Q4 2019 GDP growth
2.1%
1.3%
2.9%
1.5%
2.6%
2.4%

This was the year and a half prior to Covid. Looks like around 2.2-2.3% on average and pretty volatile. Prior four quarters is under 2%.

6ftstick wrote: ↑Tue Nov 17, 2020 11:06 am

Farfromgeneva wrote: ↑Tue Nov 17, 2020 10:59 am

holmes435 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 17, 2020 9:01 am Everything Trump had going in "the right direction" was on borrowed dime too. "Tax and Spend" vs. "Tax Cut and Spend More" seems to be our choices nowadays.

The last part is what bugs me. At this point taxes have to go up, unfortunately (thanks boomer generation, will never stop on this one, the 1980s ruined this country for everyone afterwards), but it shouldn’t have been that way and if we have to hit future generations harder than prior ones got as taxes were being reduced and spending went up then some degree of sterilization and reduced spending has to occur too.

The eighties?

2 decades into uninterrupted democrat power in the house and senate. With another decade and a half to go.

Pelosi Biden and Schumer in the middle of "ruining it for everyone afterwards"

Yeah it’s all those dirty liberal lying cheating baby murdering people who don’t think like you who are the problem.

a fan wrote: ↑Mon Nov 16, 2020 10:52 pm

Cooter wrote: ↑Mon Nov 16, 2020 9:17 pm "More people are gone to die" - Biden if the transition doesn't start soon.

I think Biden thinks he is the 2nd coming of Christ or something. Wasn't he also talking about solving the global warming problem.

Is the basic idea here that you're going to give us four years of missives from the Department of Irony?

I doubt that I personally will. When lacrosse starts up I will mostly deal with lacrosse.

That being said, Biden with his moderate intelligence level, senility, and disingenuousness will probably provide a lot of material over the next 4 years.

kramerica.inc wrote: ↑Tue Nov 17, 2020 10:17 am Sectors and companies at risk of being impacted by new regulations and sweeping policy changes under a Democratic majority probably HATE the certainty that a split gov't (no new regulations) gives them.

IMHO, if anything is driving the market bounce, it's two things. First the news of vaccines.

And second, is that everyone in my biz is expecting that Biden will get rid of the pointless tariffs (speaking of regulations that you don't think the R"s engage in ) early in his term. I don't think you've noticed how much economic damage Trump's tariffs have done.

Partly because he just handed Farmers a few billion dollars of YOUR MONEY to lessen the blow of Trump's stupid game. It was $22 Billion in 2019 alone, Kramerica. Cash. For no reason. That's half the budget for Department of Education, for heaven's sake. Money wasted on NOTHING.

So maybe tone down the blame of Dems and regulations? Republican Tariffs are regulations too, my friend......

Farfromgeneva wrote: ↑Tue Nov 17, 2020 11:08 am

6ftstick wrote: ↑Tue Nov 17, 2020 11:06 am

Farfromgeneva wrote: ↑Tue Nov 17, 2020 10:59 am

holmes435 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 17, 2020 9:01 am Everything Trump had going in "the right direction" was on borrowed dime too. "Tax and Spend" vs. "Tax Cut and Spend More" seems to be our choices nowadays.

The last part is what bugs me. At this point taxes have to go up, unfortunately (thanks boomer generation, will never stop on this one, the 1980s ruined this country for everyone afterwards), but it shouldn’t have been that way and if we have to hit future generations harder than prior ones got as taxes were being reduced and spending went up then some degree of sterilization and reduced spending has to occur too.

The eighties?

2 decades into uninterrupted democrat power in the house and senate. With another decade and a half to go.

Pelosi Biden and Schumer in the middle of "ruining it for everyone afterwards"

Yeah it’s all those dirty liberal lying cheating baby murdering people who don’t think like you who are the problem.

Yeh but still

from the sixties to the nineties liberal democrats were unfettered. How'd they do?