All things Chinese CoronaVirus

[ggait]

Looks like deaths in Sweden are picking up pace.

i still like my charts better! 7 day average and rolling dailies from the swedish website.
icu looks even better than deaths. mid to high 20s per day vs high 30s to 40s in early april.
the deaths on the swedish site definitely carry a lag as they assign to the proper date of death and it's not always in the last 24 hours, icu reporting probably has an element of at least a week lag.
here are the last 5 weeks if you went sunday to saturday on the worldometer site:
4/5-4/11 514
4/12-4/18 524
4/19-4/25 681
4/26- 5/2 477
5/3-5/9 550
5/10-5/14 (only 5 days, 2 left) 309

saturday is almost always a sub 50 day on reporting to worldometer (or has been) so tomorrow will tell whether it came down appreciably or stayed mostly within a band. i wouldn't think anything less than around 20%-ish pointed to anything other than a good week unless followed up on. and even then, it's small sample size. the last 2 days at worldometer were makeups for the previous 2 days, which were atypically low for midweek reports.

There will be a natural seasonal curtailment. Have you compared their curtailment to others?

FWIW, UW has dialed down its projections for Sweden. Current proj is for 5760 deaths, which would be about 550 deaths per 1M pop. That's still bad (worse than USA), but way below where UW was projecting a couple weeks ago (2X or more worse than UK, Italy, Spain).

At the time, WGDSR and I thought those UW projections were overdone. Looks like UW's model now agrees.

[wgdsr]

Looks like deaths in Sweden are picking up pace.

i still like my charts better! 7 day average and rolling dailies from the swedish website.
icu looks even better than deaths. mid to high 20s per day vs high 30s to 40s in early april.
the deaths on the swedish site definitely carry a lag as they assign to the proper date of death and it's not always in the last 24 hours, icu reporting probably has an element of at least a week lag.
here are the last 5 weeks if you went sunday to saturday on the worldometer site:
4/5-4/11 514
4/12-4/18 524
4/19-4/25 681
4/26- 5/2 477
5/3-5/9 550
5/10-5/14 (only 5 days, 2 left) 309

saturday is almost always a sub 50 day on reporting to worldometer (or has been) so tomorrow will tell whether it came down appreciably or stayed mostly within a band. i wouldn't think anything less than around 20%-ish pointed to anything other than a good week unless followed up on. and even then, it's small sample size. the last 2 days at worldometer were makeups for the previous 2 days, which were atypically low for midweek reports.

There will be a natural seasonal curtailment. Have you compared their curtailment to others?

it looks like all the countries hardest hit (except maybe ours?) have a pretty steep tail going. they are now charged with "opening up". in the event of any better numbers from sweden, they are likely to see less of an increased engagement delta than other countries. there may still be some loosened government advisories, and/or the public may get more engaged on their own. but the working theory for them... they won't have surges doing it the way they are, and then the possibility of fits and starts... is a story yet to be written.

we're sitting here on the other side of the pond, which is why i generally use terms like "may" and "likely" (in this pandemic i realize i know nothing about the future). but unless their behavior changes, the setup now would seem to be constant results or a decline. the chance they may see substantially increased rates to me would be lower absent big behavior change.

as far as the shutdown economies "opening up"... next stage for them is handling the greatly increased contact well, using what's been learned, developed and built out and hoping for some help (weather, therapies).

[Jim Malone]

Only off by eightfold factor if story has credible sources.

https://nypost.com/2020/05/14/leaked-da ... z8OA0Tro6c

[wgdsr]

Only off by eightfold factor if story has credible sources.

https://nypost.com/2020/05/14/leaked-da ... z8OA0Tro6c

there were early, early "unconfirmed" reports and guestimates, viral leaks of 1m plus infections and over 50k deaths in the wuhan area.
cremation centers working day and night having to provide the estimates, basically. bulldozed and chain locked apartment towers so they essentially would die and not infect anyone.
who the hell knows when it comes to any info out of china. the clinical info that comes out of there is useful in that they were first and had it when no one else did (and their health professionals care, depending on what info they're allowed to get out gives it an asterisk), so you can build on it.. but that's the smallest grain of salt in a pile of large ones.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Only off by eightfold factor if story has credible sources.

https://nypost.com/2020/05/14/leaked-da ... z8OA0Tro6c

You must also not have watched much House.

[youthathletics]

Wonder if Dr. House would prescribe this: Breakthrough: Chloroquine phosphate has shown apparent efficacy in treatment of COVID-19 associated pneumonia in clinical studies. Maybe only if he was pedaling another drug that is more costly.

Ohhh...lookie here, its on the NIH website: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32074550
Then NYU is back on the trail: https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/ne ... -19-deaths

This pandemic stuff is getting creepier and creepier.

[wgdsr]

Wonder if Dr. House would prescribe this: Breakthrough: Chloroquine phosphate has shown apparent efficacy in treatment of COVID-19 associated pneumonia in clinical studies. Maybe only if he was pedaling another drug that is more costly.

Ohhh...lookie here, its on the NIH website: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32074550
Then NYU is back on the trail: https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/ne ... -19-deaths

This pandemic stuff is getting creepier and creepier.

see what they publish on it. by quote looks like they got some good results.

as always with all these observational studies... calling for the randomized trials. i guess they'll be here for hcq and others in due time.

[DocBarrister]

We need to prepare for the possibility of Trump rejecting election results

... We don’t know whether Trump will be reelected. But, as we head toward November, you have to ask yourself: If he loses, would it be more surprising if Trump graciously accepts defeat and congratulates his opponent or if he claimed to be the victim of a rigged election and a “deep state” plot?

The answer seems clear.

... What will happen if Trump loses and then takes to Twitter to say he actually won? It’s not hard to see how deadly that could become, particularly given that Fox News personalities are already absurdly throwing around the word “coup” to describe lawful investigations and oversight of the president’s conduct. When people in positions of authority and influence invoke the language of political violence and then lose power, violence often ensues. It would be a mistake to assume the United States is somehow immune from that possibility.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... n-results/

We have all seen Trump incite those heavily armed “militia” nuts to protest stay-at-home orders around the country.

If Trump refuses to accept losing the presidential election in November, can anyone here completely rule out the possibility that he would call out his militias to prevent a supposed “coup”?

If Trump calls upon the militia nuts to begin defending his power, even with violence, do any of you doubt that at least some of them will turn violent and start killing people with their AR-15s?

We have seen things during Trump’s disastrous presidency that we have never seen before.

Do any of you TRULY think it is beyond the realm of possibility that Trump would try and incite violence to maintain his power?

DocBarrister

[njbill]

Anything is possible, of course, but Trump would be sentencing himself to life in prison if he were to support a violent attempt to overthrow the government or something similar. Does he realize that? I would guess yes, but who knows?

I certainly hope there won’t be violence, but there might be. It won’t be the first or second time in our history that there have been violent outbreaks. Where would it go? Nowhere. Does he think he could start a successful civil war? Those who advocate or perpetrate the violence will be arrested, prosecuted, convicted, and jailed.

He no doubt would take to Twitter and bleat his nonsense and lies. He could well go to court to challenge the election results in certain states. He probably would be less likely to do so if he got crushed in the electoral college as opposed to if it is a close election.

On January 20, 2021 at 12:01 PM, he becomes a private citizen. No more Bill Barr or anyone else to protect him. He becomes a toothless tiger. If he incites violence, he will be arrested in a heartbeat. And there will be nothing that all the Sean Hannitys and Tucker Carlsons of Fox News will be able to do about it.

[youthathletics]

Maybe he has already begun his dossier OpoResearch and will drop it this summer. Worst case, his holdovers will be inside and be able to keep the heat up...shouldn't be hard to find a crime...just gotta find the man to fit it.

[a fan]

Do any of you TRULY think it is beyond the realm of possibility that Trump would try and incite violence to maintain his power?

DocBarrister

Yes. You're being silly.

[old salt]

A for instance

Classes at California State University will remain virtual through the fall of 2020. Timothy P. White, chancellor for the system’s 23 campuses, told the board of trustees today that the risk of infection from the coronavirus was too great to return to live instruction.

Fauci said students might feel safest if there was a vaccine for coronavirus — but it's a "bridge too far" to think a vaccine or treatment will be ready by the time classes start this fall.

Faucci also says Even though more than 100 potential vaccines are under development, “there’s no guarantee that the vaccine is actually going to be effective.

So when do the schools open.

When you have a robust testing and tracing regiment.

You guys just posted that tests are almost 40% false negatives positives whatever fits your agenda.

Keep moving the goal posts.

Our government leadership has failed to execute. Society is paying the price. If you have a complaint, vote the responsible people out of office instead of taking your anger out on lax fans. I know what I will be doing in the fall.

#ABT.
# Not Voting for Trump is a Choice

One more time.

Compare us to the 5 largest governments in Europe to have an equivalent population to the US similar land mass and freedom of societal norms. We have fewer than half the number of deaths.

Tell us all again how we've failed.

Which 5 countries do you want us to focus on, that actually have a land mass equivalent to the US ?

He didn't say just land mass -- you did.
Rather than split hairs on land mass, the following western European countries have higher mortality rates than the US -
Italy, Spain, France, Belgium, Netherlands, UK & Sweden.

[DocBarrister]

Do any of you TRULY think it is beyond the realm of possibility that Trump would try and incite violence to maintain his power?

DocBarrister

Yes. You're being silly.

Then you haven’t been watching him.

Mind you, he is trying to coerce schools to open, endangering children for his own perceived political benefit. He has already locked children in cages.

He also nearly started a shooting war with Iran. The only thing that avoided such a war was the measured response of the Ayatollahs. Just think about that for a second.

He has openly boasted about getting away with shooting someone on Fifth Avenue. He has boasted about sexually assaulting women. If we have learned anything, it’s to take his boasts seriously.

Each time we think Trump cannot go any farther in violating moral, ethical, and legal norms, he renders foolish our doubts.

Don’t ever underestimate Trump’s capacity for evil.

DocBarrister

[njbill]

his holdovers will be inside and be able to keep the heat up.

If I’m Joe Biden, after I take the oath of office and before I deliver my inaugural address in front of a crowd twice the size of the 2016 crowd, I sign an executive order firing, effective immediately, anybody appointed by Trump or hired during his presidency.

[get it to x]

Look at the latest CNN battleground poll and get back to me. Trump is schwacking Biden. Pay no attention to national polls. All of the contenders (yes, Biden is in jeopardy of not getting the nomination) have corona baggage. The only one that doesn't is Newsom and he has charisma, so I expect him to contend for the job in 2024. If it weren't for a few social issues I could get behind him. Like Trump, he has good instincts.

[RedFromMI]

Look at the latest CNN battleground poll and get back to me. Trump is schwacking Biden. Pay no attention to national polls. All of the contenders (yes, Biden is in jeopardy of not getting the nomination) have corona baggage. The only one that doesn't is Newsom and he has charisma, so I expect him to contend for the job in 2024. If it weren't for a few social issues I could get behind him. Like Trump, he has good instincts.

Bad poll. “Battleground” was a bunch of states lumped together where they polled a bit over 300 people total. Not good polling practice, and no way to appropriately weigh the numbers.

Less than a few dozen people per state

[youthathletics]

his holdovers will be inside and be able to keep the heat up.

If I’m Joe Biden, after I take the oath of office and before I deliver my inaugural address in front of a crowd twice the size of the 2016 crowd, I sign an executive order firing, effective immediately, anybody appointed by Trump or hired during his presidency.

Would be a wise move indeed.

[Typical Lax Dad]

https://www.foxnews.com/us/miami-beach- ... irus-order

[ChairmanOfTheBoard]

Doc i dont think DJ Trump would really incite violence- however, i wouldnt discount that some of his supporters may incite such, if the election results don't go their way.

i think the one thing that is certain, is that whenever we have close elections of import in the near future, there will be challenges in the courts, either dragging it out or calling into question the legitimacy, whether meritorious or not. so i could see DJ Trump losing a close one and suing in certain states. guy loves to be on the docket.

[njbill]

https://www.foxnews.com/us/miami-beach- ... irus-order

How could this possibly happen in the land of Governor Free Bird?