All things Chinese CoronaVirus

[CU88]

A thoughtful and NON POLITICAL read, from a scientist, tough days still ahead:

https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-ri ... avoid-them

"It seems many people are breathing some relief, and I’m not sure why. An epidemic curve has a relatively predictable upslope and once the peak is reached, the back slope can also be predicted. We have robust data from the outbreaks in China and Italy, that shows the backside of the mortality curve declines slowly, with deaths persisting for months. Assuming we have just crested in deaths at 70k, it is possible that we lose another 70,000 people over the next 6 weeks as we come off that peak. That's what's going to happen with a lockdown.

As states reopen, and we give the virus more fuel, all bets are off. I understand the reasons for reopening the economy, but I've said before, if you don't solve the biology, the economy won't recover.

There are very few states that have demonstrated a sustained decline in numbers of new infections. Indeed, as of May 3rd the majority are still increasing and reopening. As a simple example of the USA trend, when you take out the data from New York and just look at the rest of the USA, daily case numbers are increasing. Bottom line: the only reason the total USA new case numbers look flat right now is because the New York City epidemic was so large and now it is being contained."

[6ftstick]

A for instance

Classes at California State University will remain virtual through the fall of 2020. Timothy P. White, chancellor for the system’s 23 campuses, told the board of trustees today that the risk of infection from the coronavirus was too great to return to live instruction.

Fauci said students might feel safest if there was a vaccine for coronavirus — but it's a "bridge too far" to think a vaccine or treatment will be ready by the time classes start this fall.

Faucci also says Even though more than 100 potential vaccines are under development, “there’s no guarantee that the vaccine is actually going to be effective.

So when do the schools open.

When you have a robust testing and tracing regiment.

You guys just posted that tests are almost 40% false negatives positives whatever fits your agenda.

Keep moving the goal posts.

Our government leadership has failed to execute. Society is paying the price. If you have a complaint, vote the responsible people out of office instead of taking your anger out on lax fans. I know what I will be doing in the fall.

#ABT.
# Not Voting for Trump is a Choice

One more time.

Compare us to the 5 largest governments in Europe to have an equivalent population to the US similar land mass and freedom of societal norms. We have fewer than half the number of deaths.

Tell us all again how we've failed.

Which 5 countries do you want us to focus on, that actually have a land mass equivalent to the US ?

Combined.

UK
France
Spain
Italy
Germany

From the AP

More than 83,000 people have died in the U.S., representing more than one-fourth of global deaths and the world’s highest toll. On the planet more than 4.3 million have been infected and about 295,000 have died.

0.06860 Mortality.

So globally 99.93 survive.

[CU88]

A for instance

Classes at California State University will remain virtual through the fall of 2020. Timothy P. White, chancellor for the system’s 23 campuses, told the board of trustees today that the risk of infection from the coronavirus was too great to return to live instruction.

Fauci said students might feel safest if there was a vaccine for coronavirus — but it's a "bridge too far" to think a vaccine or treatment will be ready by the time classes start this fall.

Faucci also says Even though more than 100 potential vaccines are under development, “there’s no guarantee that the vaccine is actually going to be effective.

So when do the schools open.

When you have a robust testing and tracing regiment.

You guys just posted that tests are almost 40% false negatives positives whatever fits your agenda.

Keep moving the goal posts.

Our government leadership has failed to execute. Society is paying the price. If you have a complaint, vote the responsible people out of office instead of taking your anger out on lax fans. I know what I will be doing in the fall.

#ABT.
# Not Voting for Trump is a Choice

One more time.

Compare us to the 5 largest governments in Europe to have an equivalent population to the US similar land mass and freedom of societal norms. We have fewer than half the number of deaths.

Tell us all again how we've failed.

Which 5 countries do you want us to focus on, that actually have a land mass equivalent to the US ?

Combined.

UK
France
Spain
Italy
Germany

From the AP

More than 83,000 people have died in the U.S., representing more than one-fourth of global deaths and the world’s highest toll. On the planet more than 4.3 million have been infected and about 295,000 have died.

0.006860 Mortality.

So globally 99.9993 survive.

UK, really? This kinda skews your "land mass equivalent" factor. LOL

Sloppy attempt at science...

[RedFromMI]

(omitted)

Which 5 countries do you want us to focus on, that actually have a land mass equivalent to the US ?

Combined.

UK
France
Spain
Italy
Germany

From the AP

More than 83,000 people have died in the U.S., representing more than one-fourth of global deaths and the world’s highest toll. On the planet more than 4.3 million have been infected and about 295,000 have died.

0.06860 Mortality.

So globally 99.93 survive.

Land mass of those 5 countries = 790,000 square miles
USA = 3.8 million square miles (continental only 3.1 million square miles)

[6ftstick]

(omitted)

Which 5 countries do you want us to focus on, that actually have a land mass equivalent to the US ?

Combined.

UK
France
Spain
Italy
Germany

From the AP

More than 83,000 people have died in the U.S., representing more than one-fourth of global deaths and the world’s highest toll. On the planet more than 4.3 million have been infected and about 295,000 have died.

0.06860 Mortality.

So globally 99.93 survive.

Land mass of those 5 countries = 790,000 square miles
USA = 3.8 million square miles

Populations roughly the same 320 mil to 330 mil. Add in some more countries then. It makes our performance even better.

[Brooklyn]

It's time to go back to work in tRUMP's deadly gravy train:





Abandon all hope ye who enter here!

[RedFromMI]

On CNBC this morning, the Verizon CEO just said they started their crisis team in early FEBRUARY to help balance the network b/c they knew surge of traffic would come.

^^^From my Twitter feed.

Some people were paying attention...

[RedFromMI]

America’s coronavirus testing numbers are really improving — finally

The US still has work to do, but it’s on a positive trend.

https://www.vox.com/2020/5/14/21257264/ ... reopen-usa

After an April that some experts described as “wasted,” it looks like America is finally making some real progress on coronavirus testing in May.

Over the past couple of weeks, the United States has seen significant improvements not just with the raw number of Covid-19 tests but also other metrics experts use to gauge the scope of the US’s coronavirus outbreak and its testing capacity.

During the week of May 5, the US averaged nearly 300,000 new coronavirus tests a day, according to the Covid Tracking Project. That’s nearly double the roughly 150,000 daily tests performed in early April, although it still falls short of the number of new tests a day experts say is needed to fully control the outbreak — a number that ranges from 500,000 on the low end to tens of millions on the high end, depending on which plan you’re reading.

The US also saw a significant improvement in another key metric for coronavirus testing: the positive rate, or the percentage of tests that come back positive for Covid-19. Generally, a higher positive rate suggests that there’s not enough testing happening: It indicates only people with obvious symptoms are getting tested.

[Typical Lax Dad]

A for instance

Classes at California State University will remain virtual through the fall of 2020. Timothy P. White, chancellor for the system’s 23 campuses, told the board of trustees today that the risk of infection from the coronavirus was too great to return to live instruction.

Fauci said students might feel safest if there was a vaccine for coronavirus — but it's a "bridge too far" to think a vaccine or treatment will be ready by the time classes start this fall.

Faucci also says Even though more than 100 potential vaccines are under development, “there’s no guarantee that the vaccine is actually going to be effective.

So when do the schools open.

When you have a robust testing and tracing regiment.

You guys just posted that tests are almost 40% false negatives positives whatever fits your agenda.

Keep moving the goal posts.

Our government leadership has failed to execute. Society is paying the price. If you have a complaint, vote the responsible people out of office instead of taking your anger out on lax fans. I know what I will be doing in the fall.

#ABT.
# Not Voting for Trump is a Choice

One more time.

Compare us to the 5 largest governments in Europe to have an equivalent population to the US similar land mass and freedom of societal norms. We have fewer than half the number of deaths.

Tell us all again how we've failed.

How can I tell we failed? You are walking around with a mask on and the country is shut down. How about, we failed too!

[Typical Lax Dad]

Another mediocre bureaucrat for the coronaclown car:

https://news.yahoo.com/los-angeles-neve ... 57348.html

Yesterday the county’s health director announced that stay-at-home efforts could possibly be extended for another three months.

Mr Garcetti confirmed that residents shouldn’t expect health orders on facemasks, social distancing and working from home to “disappear in a matter of weeks or even a few months.”

“I hope for our K through 12 schools we will have some sense of opening but it won’t be in the way we’ve known schools in the past,” he said.

This is the mayor confiscating hotels for the homeless and giving them free drugs, alcohol and cigarettes.

Now we have Andy Cuomo here saying wearing a mask is a SIGN OF RESPECT. Virtue signaling from a guy that ordered coronavirus positive people back into nursing homes.

We just stuffed over 85,000 people into the Corona Clown Car.

The numbers aren't "embellished", in any way, shape or form/fashion?

A cousin died a few days ago. From "corona virus" . Nonsense. This man had alzeihmers. Anyone involved with this illness knows that it is a long struggle. For all. HOWEVER. He has been in a vegetative state since December. Remarkable that he lived this long.

Oh....btw, he NEVER got tested for V-19. Yet, this is what he died from...............

How many more of the 85k are the same? You willing to bet your investment portfolio that every single death REALLY died from V-19? carry on

So, EVENT 201's recommendations to NOT close everything down.......are they clown cars?

Are you the guy that is worried about the dangers of rubber pelletized artificial turf and is an anti-vaxxer? Ain’t that you?

[seacoaster]

Another abomination of a decision from the Wisconsin Supreme Court. I wonder where in the Wisconsin state constitution it says that the courts are responsible for the health and safety of the citizens?

https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt ... 17a50.html

How many people will get sick this time?

Here is the 4-3 decision.

https://www.wicourts.gov/sc/opinion/Dis ... qNo=260868

There's even a mention of Montesquieu, so you have that going for you. Here's a tidbit from the dissent:

"The majority opinion, authored by Chief Justice Roggensack, does not grant a stay. Thus, the declaration of rights takes immediate effect, leaving no time for a transitional safety net that a stay could provide. Majority op., ¶¶56-57. That opinion garnered four votes (Chief Justice Roggensack and Justices Ziegler, Rebecca Grassl Bradley, and Kelly). However, concurring to her own authored majority opinion, Chief Justice Roggensack writes that she "would stay future actions to enforce our decision until May 20, 2020." Chief Justice Roggensack's concurrence, ¶65. These positions taken in the majority opinion and the concurrence are fundamentally contradictory. If you are confused, you are not alone."

[wgdsr]

A thoughtful and NON POLITICAL read, from a scientist, tough days still ahead:

https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-ri ... avoid-them

"It seems many people are breathing some relief, and I’m not sure why. An epidemic curve has a relatively predictable upslope and once the peak is reached, the back slope can also be predicted. We have robust data from the outbreaks in China and Italy, that shows the backside of the mortality curve declines slowly, with deaths persisting for months. Assuming we have just crested in deaths at 70k, it is possible that we lose another 70,000 people over the next 6 weeks as we come off that peak. That's what's going to happen with a lockdown.

As states reopen, and we give the virus more fuel, all bets are off. I understand the reasons for reopening the economy, but I've said before, if you don't solve the biology, the economy won't recover.

There are very few states that have demonstrated a sustained decline in numbers of new infections. Indeed, as of May 3rd the majority are still increasing and reopening. As a simple example of the USA trend, when you take out the data from New York and just look at the rest of the USA, daily case numbers are increasing. Bottom line: the only reason the total USA new case numbers look flat right now is because the New York City epidemic was so large and now it is being contained."

a good article and maybe an outline for part of what can make for a reopening that doesn't turn catastrophic. it can be done, takes the people though to understand it.

could also be part of what has made sweden not turn catastrophic and an example to follow in some respects. summertime will help as far as being outside. workplace protocols are crucial, and employers certainly don't want to burn through that asset.

as far as daily case numbers... red above links an article that says tests have doubled in a month. it's no secret tests were hard to come by and still are. as long as increased testing is coming on line, the best numbers to judge spread and mitigation trends will continue to be hospitalizations 1st and deaths 2nd.

[RedFromMI]

America’s True Covid Toll Already Exceeds 100,000

The reported numbers leave out thousands of deaths clearly resulting from the pandemic.

By Nicholas Kristof, Opinion Columnist

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/13/opin ... d=tw-share

Discussion with an expert on why the true toll is likely between 100K and 110K at this point, not 80K.

Many supporters of President Trump believe that the figures for coronavirus fatalities are inflated, and Trump himself shared a tweet doubting the accuracy of some virus figures.

He’s right that the death toll seems off — but not in the direction he would suggest. We’ve crunched the numbers, state by state, and it appears that somewhere around 100,000 to 110,000 Americans have already died as a result of the pandemic, rather than the 83,000 whose deaths have been attributed to the disease, Covid-19.

That’s my estimate reached with the help of a Harvard statistician, Rafael Irizarry, based on a comparison of death rates this spring with those in previous years. Some states have been largely unaffected — death rates in some even appear to have dropped, perhaps because of less driving and fewer car accidents — but others have seen huge surges in deaths.

Over all, in a bit more than two months, the United States lost more Americans to the coronavirus than died over seven decades in the Korean, Vietnam, Persian Gulf, Afghanistan and Iraq Wars.

[Typical Lax Dad]

America’s True Covid Toll Already Exceeds 100,000

The reported numbers leave out thousands of deaths clearly resulting from the pandemic.

By Nicholas Kristof, Opinion Columnist

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/13/opin ... d=tw-share

Discussion with an expert on why the true toll is likely between 100K and 110K at this point, not 80K.

Many supporters of President Trump believe that the figures for coronavirus fatalities are inflated, and Trump himself shared a tweet doubting the accuracy of some virus figures.

He’s right that the death toll seems off — but not in the direction he would suggest. We’ve crunched the numbers, state by state, and it appears that somewhere around 100,000 to 110,000 Americans have already died as a result of the pandemic, rather than the 83,000 whose deaths have been attributed to the disease, Covid-19.

That’s my estimate reached with the help of a Harvard statistician, Rafael Irizarry, based on a comparison of death rates this spring with those in previous years. Some states have been largely unaffected — death rates in some even appear to have dropped, perhaps because of less driving and fewer car accidents — but others have seen huge surges in deaths.

Over all, in a bit more than two months, the United States lost more Americans to the coronavirus than died over seven decades in the Korean, Vietnam, Persian Gulf, Afghanistan and Iraq Wars.

It just requires some basic common sense...80,000 has come in 40 days.

[njbill]

Another abomination of a decision from the Wisconsin Supreme Court. I wonder where in the Wisconsin state constitution it says that the courts are responsible for the health and safety of the citizens?

https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt ... 17a50.html

How many people will get sick this time?

Here is the 4-3 decision.

https://www.wicourts.gov/sc/opinion/Dis ... qNo=260868

There's even a mention of Montesquieu, so you have that going for you. Here's a tidbit from the dissent:

"The majority opinion, authored by Chief Justice Roggensack, does not grant a stay. Thus, the declaration of rights takes immediate effect, leaving no time for a transitional safety net that a stay could provide. Majority op., ¶¶56-57. That opinion garnered four votes (Chief Justice Roggensack and Justices Ziegler, Rebecca Grassl Bradley, and Kelly). However, concurring to her own authored majority opinion, Chief Justice Roggensack writes that she "would stay future actions to enforce our decision until May 20, 2020." Chief Justice Roggensack's concurrence, ¶65. These positions taken in the majority opinion and the concurrence are fundamentally contradictory. If you are confused, you are not alone."

One of the justices in the majority, Kelly, is the guy who was defeated last month. Jill Karofsky, who defeated him, does not go on the bench until August 1. Seems pretty obvious that the decision would’ve come out differently had she been on the court.

[Typical Lax Dad]

A thoughtful and NON POLITICAL read, from a scientist, tough days still ahead:

https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-ri ... avoid-them

"It seems many people are breathing some relief, and I’m not sure why. An epidemic curve has a relatively predictable upslope and once the peak is reached, the back slope can also be predicted. We have robust data from the outbreaks in China and Italy, that shows the backside of the mortality curve declines slowly, with deaths persisting for months. Assuming we have just crested in deaths at 70k, it is possible that we lose another 70,000 people over the next 6 weeks as we come off that peak. That's what's going to happen with a lockdown.

As states reopen, and we give the virus more fuel, all bets are off. I understand the reasons for reopening the economy, but I've said before, if you don't solve the biology, the economy won't recover.

There are very few states that have demonstrated a sustained decline in numbers of new infections. Indeed, as of May 3rd the majority are still increasing and reopening. As a simple example of the USA trend, when you take out the data from New York and just look at the rest of the USA, daily case numbers are increasing. Bottom line: the only reason the total USA new case numbers look flat right now is because the New York City epidemic was so large and now it is being contained."

a good article and maybe an outline for part of what can make for a reopening that doesn't turn catastrophic. it can be done, takes the people though to understand it.

could also be part of what has made sweden not turn catastrophic and an example to follow in some respects. summertime will help as far as being outside. workplace protocols are crucial, and employers certainly don't want to burn through that asset.

as far as daily case numbers... red above links an article that says tests have doubled in a month. it's no secret tests were hard to come by and still are. as long as increased testing is coming on line, the best numbers to judge spread and mitigation trends will continue to be hospitalizations 1st and deaths 2nd.

Testing capacity is the key to resuming life. People want to be able to go out and eat at a restaurant.... SMH....that’s the concern of Gentry class Americans’ table service. Our best case scenario in my company is a ramp up to 25% occupancy in June with a goal to eventually get to our new normal of 50% with a reconfigured work space. The remaining 50% will work remotely. If you don’t need to be in the office, you won’t be in the office. The load in our building will be vastly reduced.

[njbill]

On the planet more than 4.3 million have been infected and about 295,000 have died.

0.06860 Mortality.

So globally 99.93 survive.

Your 99.93 figure is incorrect. (The “99” doesn’t belong.) Using your global numbers (4.3 million and 295,000), they produce a (rounded) mortality rate of 7%. That means for every 100 people, 7 die and 93 survive.

[Kismet]

"National data from this past week suggest that the U.S. is starting to experience a sustained and sharper decline in new covid19 cases after a period of extended plateau."- per Scott Gottleib MD

possibly some good news

Then there's the bad news from London's Financial Times (not exactly a left wing rag)

https://www.ft.com/content/97dc7de6-940 ... 1e24b679ed

whose extensive and in-depth reporting by Edward Luce indicates that testing in the US might very well have been slowed down INTENTIONALLY? This strikes me as a very big deal. - Check this item
"Edward Luce spoke with dozens of officials to discover what went wrong in Donald Trump’s first real crisis — and found a president who ignored increasingly urgent intelligence warnings and dismissed anyone who claimed to know more than him.

President Trump didn’t want to make preparations for the coronavirus pandemic because he was concerned doing so would sent the stock market into a panic, the Financial Times reports.

Said one Trump confidant: “Jared had been arguing that testing too many people, or ordering too many ventilators, would spook the markets and so we just shouldn’t do it… That advice worked far more powerfully on Trump than what the scientists were saying. He thinks they always exaggerate.”"

Pay attention to Dr. Bright's testimony before a House Committee today

You cannot run a government response to a pandemic like a private real estate company all by yourself.

[ggait]

Compare us to the 5 largest governments in Europe to have an equivalent population to the US similar land mass and freedom of societal norms. We have fewer than half the number of deaths.

Tell us all again how we've failed.

Six -- let's have this discussion with the actual data attached? Crazy concept, I know. As I've said numerous times before, we are not the worst, but far from the best.

Deaths per million pop; pop density per mile:

Spain 584; 241
Italy 514; 518
UK 495; 725
France 415; 319
Sweden 349; 60
USA 258; 87
Canada 140; 10
Germany 94; 603
Denmark 93; 350
Austria 70; 275
Norway 43; 44
Japan 5; 862
SK 5; 1339
Australia 4; 9
NZ 4; 48

National pop densities can be somewhat misleading for this purpose, since they get skewed by including vast unpopulated areas (Australian Outback, Yukon Territory). Given our pop density, we have little to write home about. And neither does Sweden. But Germany definitely does!

But to be fair, the NYC/NJ metro area is highly dense and (no surprise) that's where our cases/deaths are concentrated.

[6ftstick]

Compare us to the 5 largest governments in Europe to have an equivalent population to the US similar land mass and freedom of societal norms. We have fewer than half the number of deaths.

Tell us all again how we've failed.

Six -- let's have this discussion with the actual data attached? Crazy concept, I know. As I've said numerous times before, we are not the worst, but far from the best.

Deaths per million pop; pop density per mile:

Spain 584; 241
Italy 514; 518
UK 495; 725
France 415; 319
Sweden 349; 60
USA 258; 87
Canada 140; 10
Germany 94; 603
Denmark 93; 350
Austria 70; 275
Norway 43; 44
Japan 5; 862
SK 5; 1339
Australia 4; 9
NZ 4; 48

National pop densities can be somewhat misleading for this purpose, since they get skewed by including vast unpopulated areas (Australian Outback, Yukon Territory). Given our pop density, we have little to write home about. And neither does Sweden. But Germany definitely does!

But to be fair, the NYC/NJ metro area is highly dense and (no surprise) that's where our cases/deaths are concentrated.

328 million people 83,000 deaths——does not equal 258/million