All Things Russia & Ukraine

[old salt]

The Russian Federation is a rump malignancy … the remnant of two prior failed states, the Soviet Union and Russian Empire.

The Russian Federation is dangerous … nothing will change that. The long-term strategic goal should be to neutralize Russia politically and economically, while castrating its military.

That's the propaganda that Putin is using to stoke the paranoia of the Russian people & generate support for this war.
The neocon, globalist decadent West is out to further dismember Mother Russia. It plays right into Putin's hands.

[Brooklyn]

https://www.businessinsider.com/mark-ke ... 2023-3?amp

"Russians not knowing how to fly"


All this talk about how Putin is out to conquer the world but he can't get anyone to enlist or to fight with any degree of competence.

[MDlaxfan76]

The Russian Federation is a rump malignancy … the remnant of two prior failed states, the Soviet Union and Russian Empire.

The Russian Federation is dangerous … nothing will change that. The long-term strategic goal should be to neutralize Russia politically and economically, while castrating its military.

That's the propaganda that Putin is using to stoke the paranoia of the Russian people & generate support for this war.
The neocon, globalist decadent West is out to further dismember Mother Russia. It plays right into Putin's hands.

Yeah, Doc is the reason Putin is a war criminal.

[Typical Lax Dad]

The Russian Federation is a rump malignancy … the remnant of two prior failed states, the Soviet Union and Russian Empire.

The Russian Federation is dangerous … nothing will change that. The long-term strategic goal should be to neutralize Russia politically and economically, while castrating its military.

That's the propaganda that Putin is using to stoke the paranoia of the Russian people & generate support for this war.
The neocon, globalist decadent West is out to further dismember Mother Russia. It plays right into Putin's hands.

[old salt]

The Russian Federation is a rump malignancy … the remnant of two prior failed states, the Soviet Union and Russian Empire.

The Russian Federation is dangerous … nothing will change that. The long-term strategic goal should be to neutralize Russia politically and economically, while castrating its military.

That's the propaganda that Putin is using to stoke the paranoia of the Russian people & generate support for this war.
The neocon, globalist decadent West is out to further dismember Mother Russia. It plays right into Putin's hands.

Yeah, Doc is the reason Putin is a war criminal.

Serious question. Do you think it would be in our strategic interest if the Russian Federation came apart ?
Yes or No ? with no equivocating about democratic transition, blah, blah. There's no way that can be assured.
Do you think it's worth the risk of unforeseen consequences, given that we're demonstrating that Putin can be contained, when not deterred ?

[DocBarrister]

The Russian Federation is a rump malignancy … the remnant of two prior failed states, the Soviet Union and Russian Empire.

The Russian Federation is dangerous … nothing will change that. The long-term strategic goal should be to neutralize Russia politically and economically, while castrating its military.

That's the propaganda that Putin is using to stoke the paranoia of the Russian people & generate support for this war.
The neocon, globalist decadent West is out to further dismember Mother Russia. It plays right into Putin's hands.

Yeah, Doc is the reason Putin is a war criminal.

Serious question. Do you think it would be in our strategic interest if the Russian Federation came apart ?
Yes or No ? with no equivocating about democratic transition, blah, blah. There's no way that can be assured.
Do you think it's worth the risk of unforeseen consequences, given that we're demonstrating that Putin can be contained, when not deterred ?

Yes, it would be in our long term strategic interest to have the Russian Federation fall apart.

The Russian Federation and its predecessor, the Soviet Union, are the powers to have come closest to threatening a real nuclear conflict against the United States and its allies. Russia has been one of the most destabilizing forces in the world since the dissolution of the USSR.

NATO, the EU, and the United States have had to spend hundreds of billions of dollars to counter the military and economic disruption caused solely by Russia’s imperialistic actions.

Russia’s actions have brought economic, political, and military instability to the entire world, including bringing North Korea and Iran into the arms supply business for Russia.

You seem to think the Russian Federation brings some measure of stability to the world. Nothing could be further from the truth. Neither ISIS nor Al Qaeda has openly threatened to use nukes in Europe.

Russia needs to be castrated militarily, politically, and economically … like Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan … before it can be allowed to resume a position of leadership in the world.

DocBarrister

[Brooklyn]

Russia needs to be castrated militarily, politically, and economically

For a country that only spends $65 billion on its military (about 1/11th of the amount spent by USA), you have to wonder how they manage to create the instability you allege.

In any case let others "castrate" Russia. We need to spend our money on ourselves, not on them.

[old salt]

The Russian Federation is a rump malignancy … the remnant of two prior failed states, the Soviet Union and Russian Empire.

The Russian Federation is dangerous … nothing will change that. The long-term strategic goal should be to neutralize Russia politically and economically, while castrating its military.

That's the propaganda that Putin is using to stoke the paranoia of the Russian people & generate support for this war.
The neocon, globalist decadent West is out to further dismember Mother Russia. It plays right into Putin's hands.

Yeah, Doc is the reason Putin is a war criminal.

Serious question. Do you think it would be in our strategic interest if the Russian Federation came apart ?
Yes or No ? with no equivocating about democratic transition, blah, blah. There's no way that can be assured.
Do you think it's worth the risk of unforeseen consequences, given that we're demonstrating that Putin can be contained, when not deterred ?

Yes, it would be in our long term strategic interest to have the Russian Federation fall apart.

The Russian Federation and its predecessor, the Soviet Union, are the powers to have come closest to threatening a real nuclear conflict against the United States and its allies. Russia has been one of the most destabilizing forces in the world since the dissolution of the USSR.

NATO, the EU, and the United States have had to spend hundreds of billions of dollars to counter the military and economic disruption caused solely by Russia’s imperialistic actions.

Russia’s actions have brought economic, political, and military instability to the entire world, including bringing North Korea and Iran into the arms supply business for Russia.

You seem to think the Russian Federation brings some measure of stability to the world. Nothing could be further from the truth. Neither ISIS nor Al Qaeda has openly threatened to use nukes in Europe.

Russia needs to be castrated militarily, politically, and economically … like Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan … before it can be allowed to resume a position of leadership in the world.

DocBarrister

You focus only on your desired end state & disregard the risks in getting there, even if it were possible, which is nowhere near assured.

[a fan]

If the plan is to "think like a Russian", then you have to follow through, and not just pick and choose to do it here and there.

1. Russians think that Ukraine is theirs...who cares why. There will be no peace until they own every last inch. Act accordingly
2. Putin will not sue for peace until his popularity ratings drop. Act accordingly.
3. The Russians will not give up Crimea. Act accordingly

IMHO -- neither side has the ability to achieve victory. This is why I've thought from the outset that the most likely outcome is a frozen conflict (like Korea) based on an armistice along a line of contact. Both sides are exhausted & in stalemate. The concern is that Russia will recover, reinforce & rearm faster than Ukraine can. I'm not convinced that's what would happen. As Ukraine continues to receive & adapt western weapons, their ability to defend themselves increases. Delay may work to Ukraine's advantage. Especially if there is an armistice & cease fire & Ukraine's economy can begin to recover & the Ukrainians can begin paying for their own defense, reconstruction & the subsistence of their returning population. Ukraine may have to accept the loss of the territory that Russia now holds. That would result in a more stable & mutually defensible border anyway & reduce Russia's motivation to push for total victory. The cost to rebuild & resettle that devastated territory will be enormous. Let Russia struggle with that burden while Ukraine resettles & rebuilds the rest of their country & builds a defense capable of deterring further Russian aggression. Ukraine is a complete US & EU client state. That financial burden can't & won't be sustained indefinitely.

All immaterial.

You asked everyone to think like a Russian. That Ukraine is part of Russia....Catherine the Great.

Well, that's exactly what has happened. They did what you asked.....which leads to this:

1. Russians think that Ukraine is theirs...who cares why. There will be no peace until they own every last inch. Act accordingly
2. Putin will not sue for peace until his popularity ratings drop. Act accordingly.
3. The Russians will not give up Crimea. Act accordingly

This is why there won't be peace. Because both Zelensky and the US NeoCons (and guys like DocB) are buying what you are selling, OS. They believe that Putin won't settle for anything, because they believe that Putin thinks Ukraine is "his". Therefore, Putin won't rest until tanks are parked in Kiev.

They're doing what you asked: think like a Russian.

Obama didn't think like a Russian. It's why he didn't lift a finger militarily, and why Hillary offered a reset button. They thought like Americans.

[old salt]

If the plan is to "think like a Russian", then you have to follow through, and not just pick and choose to do it here and there.

1. Russians think that Ukraine is theirs...who cares why. There will be no peace until they own every last inch. Act accordingly
2. Putin will not sue for peace until his popularity ratings drop. Act accordingly.
3. The Russians will not give up Crimea. Act accordingly

IMHO -- neither side has the ability to achieve victory. This is why I've thought from the outset that the most likely outcome is a frozen conflict (like Korea) based on an armistice along a line of contact. Both sides are exhausted & in stalemate. The concern is that Russia will recover, reinforce & rearm faster than Ukraine can. I'm not convinced that's what would happen. As Ukraine continues to receive & adapt western weapons, their ability to defend themselves increases. Delay may work to Ukraine's advantage. Especially if there is an armistice & cease fire & Ukraine's economy can begin to recover & the Ukrainians can begin paying for their own defense, reconstruction & the subsistence of their returning population. Ukraine may have to accept the loss of the territory that Russia now holds. That would result in a more stable & mutually defensible border anyway & reduce Russia's motivation to push for total victory. The cost to rebuild & resettle that devastated territory will be enormous. Let Russia struggle with that burden while Ukraine resettles & rebuilds the rest of their country & builds a defense capable of deterring further Russian aggression. Ukraine is a complete US & EU client state. That financial burden can't & won't be sustained indefinitely.

All immaterial.

You asked everyone to think like a Russian. That Ukraine is part of Russia....Catherine the Great.

Well, that's exactly what has happened. They did what you asked.....which leads to this:

1. Russians think that Ukraine is theirs...who cares why. There will be no peace until they own every last inch. Act accordingly
2. Putin will not sue for peace until his popularity ratings drop. Act accordingly.
3. The Russians will not give up Crimea. Act accordingly

This is why there won't be peace. Because both Zelensky and the US NeoCons (and guys like DocB) are buying what you are selling, OS. They believe that Putin won't settle for anything, because they believe that Putin thinks Ukraine is "his". Therefore, Putin won't rest until tanks are parked in Kiev.

They're doing what you asked: think like a Russian.

Obama didn't think like a Russian. It's why he didn't lift a finger militarily, and why Hillary offered a reset button. They thought like Americans.

Putin will come to realize, if he hasn't already, that he won't be able to take the rest of Ukraine. He will save face by saying that he has brought Crimea, the Donbas & the land bridge back into Mother Russia. That does not mean that Putin & the Russian people will give up their sense of grievance. They'll realize that they're not able to wage endless war to recover all of Ukraine. The enmity between Russia & Ukraine will persist. It will be a frozen conflick, a la Korea.

According to your analogy, if Obama's hands off attitude had continued, the Russian tanks would already be in Kyiv.
The reset button was offered when Medvedev was the President, 5 years before Crimea & the Donbas were seized in 2014.

[a fan]

Putin will come to realize, if he hasn't already, that he won't be able to take the rest of Ukraine. He will save face by saying that he has brought Crimea, the Donbas & the land bridge back into Mother Russia. That does not mean that Putin & the Russian people will give up their sense of grievance. They'll realize that they're not able to wage endless war to recover all of Ukraine. The enmity between Russia & Ukraine will persist. It will be a frozen conflick, a la Korea.

You hope. Again, our policy makers agree with you, and so does Zelensky.

That means that they believe that Putin is incapable of leaving Ukraine alone. Think on that. Because this line of thinking affects every choice they make.

According to your analogy, if Obama's hands off attitude had continued, the Russian tanks would already be in Kyiv.

That's right. That's the consequence of thinking like an American who gets the long play. My preferred choice.

You're currently witnessing the consequence of your preferred choice: think like a Russian.

Which consequence do you prefer? Happy to agree that neither consequence is all sunshine and rainbows.

The reset button was offered when Medvedev was the President, 5 years before Crimea & the Donbas were seized in 2014.

That's right. And if Russia had modern leaders in their place smart enough to understand what was being offered? Russia would be on their way to being a 1st world nation....instead of being stuck in a failed past.

[old salt]

Putin will come to realize, if he hasn't already, that he won't be able to take the rest of Ukraine. He will save face by saying that he has brought Crimea, the Donbas & the land bridge back into Mother Russia. That does not mean that Putin & the Russian people will give up their sense of grievance. They'll realize that they're not able to wage endless war to recover all of Ukraine. The enmity between Russia & Ukraine will persist. It will be a frozen conflick, a la Korea.

You hope. Again, our policy makers agree with you, and so does Zelensky.

That means that they believe that Putin is incapable of leaving Ukraine alone. Think on that. Because this line of thinking affects every choice they make.

According to your analogy, if Obama's hands off attitude had continued, the Russian tanks would already be in Kyiv.

That's right. That's the consequence of thinking like an American who gets the long play. My preferred choice.

You're currently witnessing the consequence of your preferred choice: think like a Russian.

Which consequence do you prefer? Happy to agree that neither consequence is all sunshine and rainbows.

The reset button was offered when Medvedev was the President, 5 years before Crimea & the Donbas were seized in 2014.

That's right. And if Russia had modern leaders in their place smart enough to understand what was being offered? Russia would be on their way to being a 1st world nation....instead of being stuck in a failed past.

You are confusing me. What was your preferred choice for US policy in 2014, after Putin grabbed Crimea & the enclaves in the Donbas ?
Are you saying your long play preferred choice would have meant Russian tanks in Kyiv now ?
What do you assert was Obama's policy after the 2014 incursion ?

Ukraine's weakness invited armed intervention in 2014. Ukraine's perceived weakness invited armed intervention again in 2022.

Russia's "modern leaders" looted the country, moved their booty offshore, & became the ruling oligarchy. Was that inevitable ?
Some conclude that Russia was not fertile ground for liberal democracy, given it's long history of Czarist then Soviet totalitarian rule.

[DocBarrister]

Russia needs to be castrated militarily, politically, and economically

For a country that only spends $65 billion on its military (about 1/11th of the amount spent by USA), you have to wonder how they manage to create the instability you allege.

In any case let others "castrate" Russia. We need to spend our money on ourselves, not on them.

Russia’s efforts to assassinate the President of Chad and install a puppet government are just a recent example of how Russia is acting more like a global terrorist and criminal organization than a sovereign nation.

The United States recently warned Chad’s president that Russian mercenaries were plotting to kill him and three senior aides and that Moscow was backing Chadian rebels massing in the neighboring Central African Republic. At the same time, Moscow is courting sympathizers inside Chad’s ruling elite, including cabinet ministers and a half brother of the president.

The decision by the U.S. government to share sensitive intelligence with the head of an African state — a disclosure it then leaked — reveals one way in which the Biden administration is moving more assertively in Africa and using new tactics to stymie Russian gains on the continent.

… A U.S. official, who like others interviewed for this article spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss matters of national security, said the assassination plot in Chad represented “a new chapter” in efforts by Wagner, the Kremlin-backed private military force, to advance Russian interests in Africa.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/19/worl ... agner.html

DocBarrister

[Brooklyn]

Russia’s efforts to assassinate the President of Chad and install a puppet government are just a recent example of how Russia is acting more like a global terrorist and criminal organization than a sovereign nation.

...

DocBarrister

Gee, such wickedness! Reminds me of a certain country that pretended there were WMD in Iraq and that it was about to start WW III. The same country that invaded and occupied Afghanistan for over 20 years in a FAIL war with over a million killed in both wars. In fact, same country that undermined a democratically elected government in Nicaragua and tried to do the same in Iran. Heck, the list of such activities could go on for a few pages but I do think we've already discussed such evils over the years. Aren't you glad the UN decided to look the other way (or even supported such efforts) rather than engage in retaliatory intervention?

[PizzaSnake]

Russia needs to be castrated militarily, politically, and economically

For a country that only spends $65 billion on its military (about 1/11th of the amount spent by USA), you have to wonder how they manage to create the instability you allege.

In any case let others "castrate" Russia. We need to spend our money on ourselves, not on them.

A great deal of US expenditure is on personnel.

[MDlaxfan76]

The Russian Federation is a rump malignancy … the remnant of two prior failed states, the Soviet Union and Russian Empire.

The Russian Federation is dangerous … nothing will change that. The long-term strategic goal should be to neutralize Russia politically and economically, while castrating its military.

That's the propaganda that Putin is using to stoke the paranoia of the Russian people & generate support for this war.
The neocon, globalist decadent West is out to further dismember Mother Russia. It plays right into Putin's hands.

Yeah, Doc is the reason Putin is a war criminal.

Serious question. Do you think it would be in our strategic interest if the Russian Federation came apart ?
Yes or No ? with no equivocating about democratic transition, blah, blah. There's no way that can be assured.
Do you think it's worth the risk of unforeseen consequences, given that we're demonstrating that Putin can be contained, when not deterred ?

Serious answer? Yes.

Obviously that's just the binary answer, since you demand such.

You don't want "equivocation", but I feel the same way about the CCP.

Putin's Russia, the "Russian Federation", is now an authoritarian kleptocracy with outlandish ambitions to dominate their neighbors through force and propaganda. Their regime is correctly understood as "evil", endorsing its continuation as such is to endorse "evil".

Of course, there's a heck of a lot of challenge to how to affect change in Russia...does it require a "failed state" chaos, or can there be moderation under different leadership?

No, we're actually not demonstrating that Putin can be contained. He's unleashed horrific war crimes on his neighbor, having failed to achieve hegemony through corruption and propaganda, which he is actively attempting in multiple countries...including here in the US. It's not "contained" at all.

And it will continue if there is any faltering in Western resolve.

This constant blaming of weaker neighbors for not being stronger, while also blaming their decision to seek strong allies and democracy...as if those are "invitations" to war atrocities, is just gross, Putinesque propaganda.

I've read your back and forth with a fan, and he's right...if we understand and accept that the "Russian" (Putin hardliner) mindset is as you say, then we much recognize that there will be no peace without Putin's defeat.

I think that begins with the Russian military turning tail and retreating to pre 2014, internationally recognized, Russian Federation recognized borders. The Russians can sort themselves from there, but the only path back to international legitimacy and economic prosperity that the West should offer is with a new leadership willing to hold war criminals accountable and to provide, at least in part, some reparations...and, of course, the return of the stolen children of Ukraine...

[MDlaxfan76]

Russia needs to be castrated militarily, politically, and economically

For a country that only spends $65 billion on its military (about 1/11th of the amount spent by USA), you have to wonder how they manage to create the instability you allege.

In any case let others "castrate" Russia. We need to spend our money on ourselves, not on them.

A great deal of US expenditure is on personnel.

And the weapons systems are built by American workers.

That doesn't mean that it's the most efficient way to spend an incremental dollar, but it sure ain't not "spending it on ourselves".

[PizzaSnake]

Russia needs to be castrated militarily, politically, and economically

For a country that only spends $65 billion on its military (about 1/11th of the amount spent by USA), you have to wonder how they manage to create the instability you allege.

In any case let others "castrate" Russia. We need to spend our money on ourselves, not on them.

A great deal of US expenditure is on personnel.

And the weapons systems are built by American workers.

That doesn't mean that it's the most efficient way to spend an incremental dollar, but it sure ain't not "spending it on ourselves".

I was referring to the disparity between Russia and US personnel spending. Of course, given the obvious discrepancy between claimed expense and performance, who knows how much Russia actually spends.

[MDlaxfan76]

Russia needs to be castrated militarily, politically, and economically

For a country that only spends $65 billion on its military (about 1/11th of the amount spent by USA), you have to wonder how they manage to create the instability you allege.

In any case let others "castrate" Russia. We need to spend our money on ourselves, not on them.

A great deal of US expenditure is on personnel.

And the weapons systems are built by American workers.

That doesn't mean that it's the most efficient way to spend an incremental dollar, but it sure ain't not "spending it on ourselves".

I was referring to the disparity between Russia and US personnel spending. Of course, given the obvious discrepancy between claimed expense and performance, who knows how much Russia actually spends.

Right, I wasn't disagreeing; I was mostly responding to Brooklyn's assertion "We need to spend money on ourselves, not them".

[a fan]

You are confusing me. What was your preferred choice for US policy in 2014, after Putin grabbed Crimea & the enclaves in the Donbas ?
Are you saying your long play preferred choice would have meant Russian tanks in Kyiv now ?

Yes, I"m saying my long term choice MAY have led to Russian tanks in Kiev/Kyiv. Maybe, but not certain. Nothing would stop Putin from using force, that much is certain. But as you know, my opinion was that if we had left Ukraine alone militarily, ala Obama.....Putin wouldn't have invaded.

But I could have been wrong, obviously. So yes, Putin COULD have marched to Kyiv if I had my way. Yep. Total possibility.

And yes, this is my preferred choice. Don't know how many more times I need to tell you that. It's why I cheered Obama's choices, while Neo-Cons/Republicans hit Obama for being "soft", and not "thinking like a Russian"...and for being "condescending" with Putin. And then supported Trump as he did nothing about the Sea of Azov kerfuffle. And all that taking Crimea did for Putin was p*ss away more money on a stupid, pointless Navy for a country that doesn't need one. My opinion, of course. And turns out I was right....Putin should have blown money on land-based assets if his game was to rebuild the Soviet Union as you and others assert.

“Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake”.

What do you assert was Obama's policy after the 2014 incursion ?

Sanctions. Sit back, and let Russia implode. And that's exactly what has happened. Russia is F'ed long term. Art of War basics here: if your enemy wants to make mistakes, let them. This is Putin's Vietnam....a pointless war where even if he "wins", he "wins" a big, fat, nothing.

He could have spent this entire time working on Trade with the US and EU, and his country would be MILES ahead. Instead? Brain drain. Investments stopped.

Russia's "modern leaders" looted the country, moved their booty offshore, & became the ruling oligarchy. Was that inevitable ?
Some conclude that Russia was not fertile ground for liberal democracy, given it's long history of Czarist then Soviet totalitarian rule.

If this is true----you're the one who did all of this. You fought these guys in the Cold War----and the Soviets fell apart trying to play "army man" with the US. And they couldn't do it. Why? As I keep telling you: GDP. Money. Same as it ever was.

It's what Obama was trying to tell Putin. Putin isn't a student of history. If he was, he wouldn't be wasting his time and money on corruption and phony imperialism that he can't afford.....the same sh(t that took down the Soviets. He'd be working on trade. Taiwan did. So did S Korea....how are they doing, relatively?