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If 80% of Americans Wore Masks, COVID-19 Infections Would Plummet, New Study Says
There’s compelling evidence that Japan, Hong Kong, and other East Asian locales are doing it right and we should really, truly mask up—fast.

By David Ewing Duncan
May 8, 2020

It sounds too good to be true. But a compelling new study and computer model provide fresh evidence for a simple solution to help us emerge from this nightmarish lockdown. The formula? Always social distance in public and, most importantly, wear a mask.

If you’re wondering whether to wear or not to wear, consider this. The day before yesterday, 21 people died of COVID-19 in Japan. In the United States, 2,129 died. Comparing overall death rates for the two countries offers an even starker point of comparison with total U.S. deaths now at a staggering 76,032 and Japan’s fatalities at 577. Japan’s population is about 38% of the U.S., but even adjusting for population, the Japanese death rate is a mere 2% of America’s.

This comes despite Japan having no lockdown, still-active subways, and many businesses that have remained open—reportedly including karaoke bars, although Japanese citizens and industries are practicing social distancing where they can. Nor have the Japanese broadly embraced contact tracing, a practice by which health authorities identify someone who has been infected and then attempt to identify everyone that person might have interacted with—and potentially infected. So how does Japan do it?

“One reason is that nearly everyone there is wearing a mask,” said De Kai, an American computer scientist with joint appointments at UC Berkeley’s International Computer Science Institute and at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. He is also the chief architect of an in-depth study, set to be released in the coming days, that suggests that every one of us should be wearing a mask—whether surgical or homemade, scarf or bandana—like they do in Japan and other countries, mostly in East Asia. This formula applies to President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence (occasional mask refuseniks) as well as every other official who routinely interacts with people in public settings. Among the findings of their research paper, which the team plans to submit to a major journal: If 80% of a closed population were to don a mask, COVID-19 infection rates would statistically drop to approximately one twelfth the number of infections—compared to a live-virus population in which no one wore masks.

RedFromMI wrote: ↑Sat May 09, 2020 8:56 pm

If 80% of Americans Wore Masks, COVID-19 Infections Would Plummet, New Study Says
There’s compelling evidence that Japan, Hong Kong, and other East Asian locales are doing it right and we should really, truly mask up—fast.

By David Ewing Duncan
May 8, 2020

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/05 ... ype=earned

It sounds too good to be true. But a compelling new study and computer model provide fresh evidence for a simple solution to help us emerge from this nightmarish lockdown. The formula? Always social distance in public and, most importantly, wear a mask.

If you’re wondering whether to wear or not to wear, consider this. The day before yesterday, 21 people died of COVID-19 in Japan. In the United States, 2,129 died. Comparing overall death rates for the two countries offers an even starker point of comparison with total U.S. deaths now at a staggering 76,032 and Japan’s fatalities at 577. Japan’s population is about 38% of the U.S., but even adjusting for population, the Japanese death rate is a mere 2% of America’s.

This comes despite Japan having no lockdown, still-active subways, and many businesses that have remained open—reportedly including karaoke bars, although Japanese citizens and industries are practicing social distancing where they can. Nor have the Japanese broadly embraced contact tracing, a practice by which health authorities identify someone who has been infected and then attempt to identify everyone that person might have interacted with—and potentially infected. So how does Japan do it?

“One reason is that nearly everyone there is wearing a mask,” said De Kai, an American computer scientist with joint appointments at UC Berkeley’s International Computer Science Institute and at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. He is also the chief architect of an in-depth study, set to be released in the coming days, that suggests that every one of us should be wearing a mask—whether surgical or homemade, scarf or bandana—like they do in Japan and other countries, mostly in East Asia. This formula applies to President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence (occasional mask refuseniks) as well as every other official who routinely interacts with people in public settings. Among the findings of their research paper, which the team plans to submit to a major journal: If 80% of a closed population were to don a mask, COVID-19 infection rates would statistically drop to approximately one twelfth the number of infections—compared to a live-virus population in which no one wore masks.

ggait wrote: ↑Mon Mar 09, 2020 2:49 pm How come the CDC isn't recommending that people in gathering places use some kind of disposable or washable cloth/paper/plastic covering on their hands and face? Seems like that would be quite easy, cheap and effective. And less disruptive than widespread closings of schools and workplaces.

I'm not talking about 95% masks and health worker isolation gear. But just some kind of physical barrier (and visible reminder) to disrupt some percentage of the possible transmissions.

The biggest effect probably would be the mindfulness and habit breaking impact. The average person by habit touches their face with their hands several hundred times a day. So just telling people "don't do that!" is pretty weak sauce to modify behavior. And how many times a day are most people really going to wash their hands?

While the barriers might not totally keep me from getting infected, they should be pretty effective to prevent me from infecting you. And since we don't know who is/is not infected, why not do that in classrooms, conferences, arenas and airplanes? It would look weird, but the weird look would help reinforce the message.

What am I missing?

ggait wrote: ↑ Interesting interactive projection simulator from the Wharton school.

Let's you iterate different scenarios and see what the health and economic consequences are. Which I personally think is the right way to look at it.

For example, if you do nothing and let it rip, you get 895,000 deaths by June 30. GDP is -8.1%. And we add 6.5 million jobs.

If you keep the stay at home orders with no re-opening, you get 116,000 deaths at June 30. -11.6% GDP. And we add only 2.5 million jobs.

Lives actually are not priceless -- we value them all the time in many different ways. It is all about choices.

https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/i ... -simulator

Typical Lax Dad wrote: ↑Sat May 09, 2020 9:11 pm

We could have used some of that 18 tons of masks, gowns and other personal protection items that Trump sent to China during the first week of February.

ggait wrote: ↑Sat May 09, 2020 9:34 pm Ignoring the mask wearing by all the Asian countries was a big biff by Fauci, Birks and also by this guy:

U.S. Surgeon General
@Surgeon_General
Seriously people- STOP BUYING MASKS!

They are NOT effective in preventing general public from catching #Coronavirus, but if healthcare providers can’t get them to care for sick patients, it puts them and our communities at risk!

Talk about something not aging well.

But for something that did age very well:

ggait wrote: ↑Mon Mar 09, 2020 2:49 pm How come the CDC isn't recommending that people in gathering places use some kind of disposable or washable cloth/paper/plastic covering on their hands and face? Seems like that would be quite easy, cheap and effective. And less disruptive than widespread closings of schools and workplaces.

I'm not talking about 95% masks and health worker isolation gear. But just some kind of physical barrier (and visible reminder) to disrupt some percentage of the possible transmissions.

The biggest effect probably would be the mindfulness and habit breaking impact. The average person by habit touches their face with their hands several hundred times a day. So just telling people "don't do that!" is pretty weak sauce to modify behavior. And how many times a day are most people really going to wash their hands?

While the barriers might not totally keep me from getting infected, they should be pretty effective to prevent me from infecting you. And since we don't know who is/is not infected, why not do that in classrooms, conferences, arenas and airplanes? It would look weird, but the weird look would help reinforce the message.

What am I missing?

ggait wrote: ↑Sat May 09, 2020 9:19 pm Interesting interactive projection simulator from the Wharton school.

Let's you iterate different scenarios and see what the health and economic consequences are. Which I personally think is the right way to look at it.

For example, if you do nothing and let it rip, you get 895,000 deaths by June 30. GDP is -8.1%. And we add 6.5 million jobs.

If you keep the stay at home orders with no re-opening, you get 116,000 deaths at June 30. -11.6% GDP. And we add only 2.5 million jobs.

Lives actually are not priceless -- we value them all the time in many different ways. It is all about choices.

https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/i ... -simulator

jhu72 wrote: ↑Sat May 09, 2020 10:15 am … probably republican rat 'ers, like Roger Stone.

jhu72 wrote: ↑Sat May 09, 2020 10:15 am

Typical Lax Dad wrote: ↑Fri May 08, 2020 9:49 pm Just when you thought it couldn’t get any worse:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/08/health/h ... index.html

The earth will be fine.

… probably republican rat 'ers, like Roger Stone.

youthathletics wrote: ↑Sat May 09, 2020 8:56 pm Holy moly....Now Bill Maher is a voice if reason. https://twitter.com/delbigtree/status/1 ... 69509?s=21

Early Precautions Draw a Life-and-Death Divide Between Flushing and Corona

On paper, Flushing and Corona, two bordering neighborhoods in Queens, are more alike than different.

Separated by two highways and Flushing Meadows-Corona Park, the working-class neighborhoods have a large share of foreign-born residents. Corona is predominantly Latino, while Flushing is home to a large Asian community.

Both are high-density areas with similar socioeconomic profiles. They’re linked by the usually crowded No. 7 train.

Nearly half of workers in both neighborhoods are employed in food service, construction, cleaning and transportation — jobs that New York State has deemed essential through the pandemic.

Residents of both places typically have household income below the Queens median and a similar share of people who lack health insurance, as measured by the U.S. Census Bureau. And almost half of apartments and houses in both areas have more than one occupant per room, the Census definition of crowded.

Yet when it comes to COVID-19, the differences between the neighborhoods couldn’t be more stark.

Corona emerged as the early epicenter of the outbreak in New York City and shows no sign of slowing down. Meanwhile, the rate of test-confirmed positive cases of the virus among Flushing residents has remained among the lowest in the five boroughs.
Early Measures

The divergent impact of the virus in two similar neighborhoods suggests that low incomes and poor access to health care alone do not predicate the virus’s damage, public health experts say.

The divide between Corona and Flushing also highlights a striking possibility: that early measures many Flushing residents, workers and businesses took to protect themselves — during crucial weeks while city and state government held back — may have made a difference.

“I was very aware when the virus first started in China,” said a Flushing nurse, originally from China, who spoke with THE CITY on the condition of anonymity.

“I knew we’d be hit hard if America didn’t prepare,” she said.

In addition to wearing masks well before Gov. Andrew Cuomo ordered it April 15, she made her husband work from home days before his accounting company required its workers to do so.

In Flushing, locals suspect that early warnings from family and news reports in East Asia, coupled with preventive measures and the shuttering of businesses, lie behind the neighborhood’s low COVID-19 infection rate.

Peter Brown wrote: ↑Sun May 10, 2020 9:48 am Reading this Tamp Bay Times article, you can taste how disappointed the writer (Democrat, natch) is that even more Floridians haven't died from the virus. He is practically begging for a disaster, but mostly, he's ticked that DeSantis gets to skate.

https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/20 ... e-told-to/

The credit doesn't go to the governor ('governor' credit is only reserved for Andrew Cuomo, who has done 'epic' work in New York!); you see, Floridians are now smart, not the dumb stereotype that the national press prefers when we are not dealing with a pandemic!

A Tampa Bay Times data analysis and interviews with 15 experts help answer the question: Why not Florida? Everyone stayed home before they were told to

You can't make up this media dishonesty in your wildest dreams; movie studios would reject your script for being too exaggerated!

RedFromMI wrote: ↑Sun May 10, 2020 9:53 am

Peter Brown wrote: ↑Sun May 10, 2020 9:48 am Reading this Tamp Bay Times article, you can taste how disappointed the writer (Democrat, natch) is that even more Floridians haven't died from the virus. He is practically begging for a disaster, but mostly, he's ticked that DeSantis gets to skate.

https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/20 ... e-told-to/

The credit doesn't go to the governor ('governor' credit is only reserved for Andrew Cuomo, who has done 'epic' work in New York!); you see, Floridians are now smart, not the dumb stereotype that the national press prefers when we are not dealing with a pandemic!

A Tampa Bay Times data analysis and interviews with 15 experts help answer the question: Why not Florida? Everyone stayed home before they were told to

You can't make up this media dishonesty in your wildest dreams; movie studios would reject your script for being too exaggerated!

Amazing that you call this media dishonesty when they actually have data to back up what they are saying (do you actually read these in depth?). Heck - I was in Florida mid-March, and can confirm the beginnings of a shutdown that was occuring - not because DeSantis was ordering it - but because at least some people (a lot in fact) actually knew there was a big problem coming.

But that does not jibe with your preferred narrative...

MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Sun May 10, 2020 10:08 am

RedFromMI wrote: ↑Sun May 10, 2020 9:53 am

Peter Brown wrote: ↑Sun May 10, 2020 9:48 am Reading this Tamp Bay Times article, you can taste how disappointed the writer (Democrat, natch) is that even more Floridians haven't died from the virus. He is practically begging for a disaster, but mostly, he's ticked that DeSantis gets to skate.

https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/20 ... e-told-to/

The credit doesn't go to the governor ('governor' credit is only reserved for Andrew Cuomo, who has done 'epic' work in New York!); you see, Floridians are now smart, not the dumb stereotype that the national press prefers when we are not dealing with a pandemic!

A Tampa Bay Times data analysis and interviews with 15 experts help answer the question: Why not Florida? Everyone stayed home before they were told to

You can't make up this media dishonesty in your wildest dreams; movie studios would reject your script for being too exaggerated!

Amazing that you call this media dishonesty when they actually have data to back up what they are saying (do you actually read these in depth?). Heck - I was in Florida mid-March, and can confirm the beginnings of a shutdown that was occuring - not because DeSantis was ordering it - but because at least some people (a lot in fact) actually knew there was a big problem coming.

But that does not jibe with your preferred narrative...

Yup, PB is all "narrative", no critical reading comprehension.

BTW, PB, Cuomo screwed up early on, too.
Not as long, not as badly as Trump, but he screwed up not taking it adequately seriously fast enough.
He's admitted that's the case.
They were hit very early, extremely hard, and have been battling from behind ever since.

The primary credit he gets is not because they've worked so hard to fight the disease, but rather because they quickly decided that telling it straight would help in their fight. Persuading people to help was job #1 as it was the only real way to reduce the rapid spread...and they've banged that drum daily, with facts and empathy. A stark contrast with Trump.

There's actually much to critique about DeSantis, but if you compare his administration's work and his decisions relative to some other southern states, he looks much better. None of them are following the science. But Florida's health dept is much more professional than many of its neighbors, so much of what they've done, and what many of the cities, towns and counties have done, has been helpful.