All things Chinese CoronaVirus

[tech37]

Fair enough.

And don’t get me wrong. I’m not excited about “only” 200k deaths. At this point, it’s here and it’s a risk.

The “unintended consequences“ are being counted as Part of those covid deaths- people who had other underlying conditions or couldn’t get a bed due to someone else taking the spot. Those are part of the 200k numbers.

But what is being ignored are the unintended consequences of keeping people at home, people afraid to get regular treatments or needed surgeries or life-threatening ailments checked out at ERs. Cancers going undiagnosed, mental illness, depression, and of course the financial side, families and businesses in ruin. That is a risk too IMO. And a toll of covid.

I’d argue that those unintended consequences and terrible scenarios probably outnumber the worst case death scenarios. And those can be prevented by lifting restrictions and imploring people to go about their lives in a new, different and safer manner. But let them know that there are still risks.

+1

+2

It sucks all around, and there are no right moves, given the lack of testing. Hopefully, two things happen.

1. Testing catches up. Testing helps let us know how deadly the disease is.
2. This virus is far more contagious than we thought, and therefore it's far less deadly than we thought...and places like Italy and NY simply got hit all at once.

Exactly a fan...

I can’t even begin to express my disgust at this “discussion”.

These are false choices being discussed here. Yes, we’re headed to over 100,000 deaths. There is nothing that will stop that now. However, there is no reason we should ever get close to 200,000 deaths.

Advocating the opening up of the economy now, when the pandemic is still going strong, is little more than complicity in mass deaths. No, those “unintended consequences” deaths from mitigation efforts will not outnumber the excess deaths from the pandemic if we loosen those restrictions.

Americans don’t have to die if we only instituted a massive testing, contact tracing, and quarantine program. The United States has the financial resources to implement such a program. We have the manpower. We have the manufacturing capability. All we lack is the political will because a malignant narcissist is in the Oval Office and doesn’t want testing to drive up the case and death numbers.

We are quite literally witnessing mass homicide on a historic scale ... and those of you who buy into the false choices framed by Trump are only aiding this atrocity.

We have to keep trying.

South Korea is still implementing substantial mitigation efforts at great cost to their economy, because they are still fighting to keep their death toll under 300.

THREE HUNDRED.

And here you are discussing 200,000 deaths as being somehow an acceptable sacrifice.

Are you kidding me?

What is wrong with you ^#%*+%# people?


DocBarrister

Nice. You fail to understand that we people realize that, as a fan has said, there are no good choices. It's an extremely tough call, and extremely uncomfortable to consider.

You're often wrong on here IMO... hope that's the case more than ever.

[a fan]

So beyond Doc's political reasons, what else is prohibiting us from upping our testing game? If South Korea can do it, why can't we? Can't we buy the the Korean testing tchnology or at least pay them for advice on how to make it happen? It would appear that a few tens of billions tossed at the testing solution would save trillions in terms of getting the economy back on track effectively as opposed to haltingly. It would also buy us more time to come up with a safe and effective vaccine. Come on America, we can do this.

Simple. Millionaires in Congress and the White House have convinced themselves that the economic damage is largely over, and we'll flip a switch in one week, and the economy will pop on like a searchlight.

So they don't think tests are needed. I've been saying for weeks now that the .gov isn't in the way of full economic activiity....people's choices are.

And having testing on hand for my employees, for example, would make me feel exponentially better about bringing folks back to work.

But neither Trump nor Congress put forward any bills or EO's to build the testing infrastructure needed to shave weeks off of test availability.


And a steak dinner says that we don't have the vaccine production needed to take a cure....if/when we find one....to mass produce the vaccine quickly.

Trump and Congress are pinning our hopes to the idea that this virus isn't as deadly as we thought....so people will simply start back to normal before the summer is out.

Not much of a plan, if you ask me. But here's hoping.

[6ftstick]

So beyond Doc's political reasons, what else is prohibiting us from upping our testing game? If South Korea can do it, why can't we? Can't we buy the the Korean testing tchnology or at least pay them for advice on how to make it happen? It would appear that a few tens of billions tossed at the testing solution would save trillions in terms of getting the economy back on track effectively as opposed to haltingly. It would also buy us more time to come up with a safe and effective vaccine. Come on America, we can do this.

Simple. Millionaires in Congress and the White House have convinced themselves that the economic damage is largely over, and we'll flip a switch in one week, and the economy will pop on like a searchlight.

So they don't think tests are needed. I've been saying for weeks now that the .gov isn't in the way of full economic activiity....people's choices are.

And having testing on hand for my employees, for example, would make me feel exponentially better about bringing folks back to work.

But neither Trump nor Congress put forward any bills or EO's to build the testing infrastructure needed to shave weeks off of test availability.


And a steak dinner says that we don't have the vaccine production needed to take a cure....if/when we find one....to mass produce the vaccine quickly.

Trump and Congress are pinning our hopes to the idea that this virus isn't as deadly as we thought....so people will simply start back to normal before the summer is out.

Not much of a plan, if you ask me. But here's hoping.

More than 30 million Americans now unemployed. More than any time during the depression. What's that worth?

[CU88]

Over 75,000 Americans dead from COVID-19 as of yesterday.

[6ftstick]

Comparing the task of testing & tracing in S Korea vs the US was unrealistic at the outset & remains so.

So simplistic.

Nonsense. That’s an excuse without any basis whatsoever.

What’s the issue? Population? South Korea is not a small nation, with 51 million people.

Distrust of the government? South Koreans distrust their government more than Americans do. They locked one president up in prison and drove a second to suicide.

Legal limitations? Nonsense. Coronavirus is not the first contagion where mandatory reporting, isolation, and
contact tracing have been done.

Is it some misplaced belief that the South Koreans are more servile or meek when facing government mandates? Are you kidding me? They overthrew a dictatorship in the 1980s and student protests are routinely violent.

Is it some notion that the U.S. is more pro-business? Please, the massive Korean chaebols make U.S. corporations look like hippy communes from the 1960s.

If there are two main differences between South Korea and the U.S.:

(1) South Korea doesn’t have 60 million people stupid enough to vote for Donald Trump; and

(2) South Korea isn’t led by a moronic, evil, malignant narcissist like Donald Trump.

Ok ... so, considering the last two factors, maybe you’re actually right.

Never mind ....

DocBarrister

So beyond Doc's political reasons, what else is prohibiting us from upping our testing game? If South Korea can do it, why can't we? Can't we buy the the Korean testing tchnology or at least pay them for advice on how to make it happen? It would appear that a few tens of billions tossed at the testing solution would save trillions in terms of getting the economy back on track effectively as opposed to haltingly. It would also buy us more time to come up with a safe and effective vaccine. Come on America, we can do this.

A population barely 20% of ours (10 million in one city) in an area the size of Missouri. In a country with NO constitutional guarantees.

The comparison is BS.

Compare us to the 5 largest EU countries with roughly the same population spread out over an area still not the size of the US with more personal freedoms than SK and we're less than have the death total.

[6ftstick]

Over 75,000 Americans dead from COVID-19 as of yesterday.

You and your friends keep telling us 100K dead doesn't matter. Just as long as Trump had nothing to do with it.

[6ftstick]

Remember how much crapola was heaped on Peter regarding his Governor.

Remember all the praise the media and our left leaning buddies here heaped on Governor Cuomo,

As of today

NY has over 20,000 dead.

Florida 1600. 61 yesterday

[a fan]

More than 30 million Americans now unemployed. More than any time during the depression. What's that worth?

I don't understand what you're asking me here.

[CU88]

Now we know why pence doesn't wear PPE, the freaking boxes were empty!

https://popculture.com/trending/news/mi ... mic-video/

[dislaxxic]

WHISTLEBLOWER DETAILS HOW TRUMP’S BUREAUCRATS REFUSED TO SECURE N95 MASKS AS PANDEMIC LOOMED

OUT THE WHISTLEBLOWER! He/She is obviously someone who hates America and has a terminal case of TDS!!

..

[Typical Lax Dad]

Now we know why pence doesn't wear PPE, the freaking boxes were empty!

https://popculture.com/trending/news/mi ... mic-video/

“ I will be freer to make a delivery after the pandemic is over...”

[6ftstick]

(1) South Korea doesn’t have 60 million people stupid enough to vote for Donald Trump; and

(2) South Korea isn’t led by a moronic, evil, malignant narcissist like Donald Trump.

And the countries that have higher death rates than the US? What's their excuse? Five countries in the EU plus the UK have higher death rates than we do.

NYC has a population density that's twice what Seoul's is, btw. That doesn't help.

And S Korea is the same freaking size as Minnesota.....it's just a "shade" easier to manage one single monoculture that size, than 50 entirely different States all with entirely different populations and cultures....all in 3.8 million square miles, instead of S Korea's 37,000 square miles.

I'm flabbergasted

posted tis at 7:40 this morning

A population barely 20% of ours (10 million in one city) in an area the size of Missouri. In a country with NO constitutional guarantees.

The comparison is BS.

Compare us to the 5 largest EU countries with roughly the same population spread out over an area still not the size of the US with more personal freedoms than SK and we're less than have the death total.

[a fan]

(1) South Korea doesn’t have 60 million people stupid enough to vote for Donald Trump; and

(2) South Korea isn’t led by a moronic, evil, malignant narcissist like Donald Trump.

And the countries that have higher death rates than the US? What's their excuse? Five countries in the EU plus the UK have higher death rates than we do.

NYC has a population density that's twice what Seoul's is, btw. That doesn't help.

And S Korea is the same freaking size as Minnesota.....it's just a "shade" easier to manage one single monoculture that size, than 50 entirely different States all with entirely different populations and cultures....all in 3.8 million square miles, instead of S Korea's 37,000 square miles.

I'm flabbergasted

posted tis at 7:40 this morning

A population barely 20% of ours (10 million in one city) in an area the size of Missouri. In a country with NO constitutional guarantees.

The comparison is BS.

Compare us to the 5 largest EU countries with roughly the same population spread out over an area still not the size of the US with more personal freedoms than SK and we're less than have the death total.

You lost me.....or maybe I'm misreading your post.

You understand that I'm refuting DocB's silly post, right?

[Typical Lax Dad]

Spain, Italy & Germany are opening up. Ask your friends in Lyon if France is yet.

They were supposed to open up on the 6th. I will ask....actually it was the 11th. I sent a WhatsApp

France begins opening up next Mon. 2 zones. Paris & NE corner slower than the rest of the country.

I had not heard back. Thanks. Set of friends in Lyon, Neully, and near the Swiss border.

Looks like Lyon might be just inside the green zone.

https://www.thelocal.fr/20200504/france ... partements

I got an email from my friend. I was told Lyon will be "de-confined" on Monday. They will be able to go out, visit parks but will be required to wear a mask but they have to be careful.... Can be with a maximum of 10 people if friends and must stay 1 meter from others. My friend owns a business which has locations in 3 cities and employs over 1,000 people. It is a SAP type company. Employees that are laid off are paid 84% by the government and 16% by the company (optional). The funds flow from the company to the employee and the government reimburses the company for 84%. Its clean and effective. Going forward and for the time being, 90% of the employees will continue to work from home.

[6ftstick]

(1) South Korea doesn’t have 60 million people stupid enough to vote for Donald Trump; and

(2) South Korea isn’t led by a moronic, evil, malignant narcissist like Donald Trump.

And the countries that have higher death rates than the US? What's their excuse? Five countries in the EU plus the UK have higher death rates than we do.

NYC has a population density that's twice what Seoul's is, btw. That doesn't help.

And S Korea is the same freaking size as Minnesota.....it's just a "shade" easier to manage one single monoculture that size, than 50 entirely different States all with entirely different populations and cultures....all in 3.8 million square miles, instead of S Korea's 37,000 square miles.

I'm flabbergasted

posted tis at 7:40 this morning

A population barely 20% of ours (10 million in one city) in an area the size of Missouri. In a country with NO constitutional guarantees.

The comparison is BS.

Compare us to the 5 largest EU countries with roughly the same population spread out over an area still not the size of the US with more personal freedoms than SK and we're less than have the death total.

You lost me.....or maybe I'm misreading your post.

You understand that I'm refuting DocB's silly post, right?

Im flaberasted we both posted nearly the same thing a few hours apart.

[a fan]

Got it. Sorry, I didn't understand what you were saying there....

[runrussellrun]

Over 75,000 Americans dead from COVID-19 as of yesterday.

So...it will be 2.4 million US folks dead this year, instead of 2.3. Got it.

Anything else?

yes, alcohol IS essential......and is perfectly harmless to use. For you. And others. Take one for the road.

donundrums abound.......con the don. conundrums ......

[wgdsr]

40-50% of the covid deaths in texas are in nursing homes.
75% in minnesota
60% in massachusetts and maine.
75% in rhode island.
60% in connecticut. more disturbingly, 90% of last week's deaths. even as we know what we know.
68% in pennsylvania. 80% in the pittsburgh area.
60% in washington.
50% in new jersey.
new york was lower in percentages, but now ny is recalibrating every day and looks like it might be a disaster in policy and numbers.
and on and on and on.

not old people. in nursing homes and long term care facilities only. it would seem there's a fairly straightforward way to reduce deaths in a major way, and that's to start treating nursing homes like they are the fort knox of covid.

we can all drone on and on about our solutions. as can the government. we absolutely know these are the centers of the worst outcomes for covid targets. a fraction of the money spent on all other resources to fight the pandemic can be expended to get nursing homes buttoned up. those are monster numbers.

reports of many of them struggling to obtain ppe as hospitals are prioritized. this is where it's happening. supplies, tests, protocols. get them locked down with the highest of protocols until we can determine a sensible way for families to reengage with them.

[old salt]

(1) South Korea doesn’t have 60 million people stupid enough to vote for Donald Trump; and

(2) South Korea isn’t led by a moronic, evil, malignant narcissist like Donald Trump.

And the countries that have higher death rates than the US? What's their excuse? Five countries in the EU plus the UK have higher death rates than we do.

NYC has a population density that's twice what Seoul's is, btw. That doesn't help.

And S Korea is the same freaking size as Minnesota.....it's just a "shade" easier to manage one single monoculture that size, than 50 entirely different States all with entirely different populations and cultures....all in 3.8 million square miles, instead of S Korea's 37,000 square miles.

Here's the best explainer I've seen which accounts for S Korea's success :

They had 2 things going for them --

-- a robust PH system, developed & maintained from dealing with past viral outbreaks. They had a nationwide contact tracing network & mehodology already in place.

-- they had a patient zero they could promptly ID & a concentrated group that was initially in contact, upon whom they could readily focus their contact tracing efforts.

https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2020/0 ... e_today_nl

On February 16, a Sunday, a 61-year-old woman with a fever entered the Shincheonji Church of Jesus in Daegu, South Korea. She touched her finger to a digital scanner. She passed through a pair of glass doors and proceeded downstairs, to the prayer hall, where she sat with approximately 1,000 other worshippers in a large windowless room. Hours later, she exited the building and left behind a trail of pathogens that would lead to thousands of infections, triggering one of the largest coronavirus outbreaks in the world.

By the end of February, South Korea had the most COVID-19 patients of any country outside China. New confirmed cases were doubling every few days, and pharmacies were running out of face masks. More than a dozen countries imposed travel restrictions to protect their citizens from the Korean outbreak, including the U.S., which had, at the time, recorded an official COVID-19 death toll low enough to count on one hand.

But just as South Korea appeared to be descending into catastrophe, the country stopped the virus in its tracks. The government demanded that the Shincheonji Church turn over its full membership list, through which the Ministry of Health identified thousands of worshippers. All were ordered to self-isolate. Within days, thousands of people in Daegu were tested for the virus. Individuals with the most serious cases were sent to hospitals, while those with milder cases checked into isolation units at converted corporate training facilities. The government used a combination of interviews and cellphone surveillance to track down the recent contacts of new patients and ordered those contacts to self-isolate as well.

Within a month, the Korean outbreak was effectively contained.

South Korea’s COVID-19 policy was forged in the crucible of previous public-health crises. In 2002, the SARS outbreak ... In 2009, the H1N1 influenza... From these epidemics, South Korean public-health officials recognized the necessity of early testing and the importance of isolating new patients to prevent secondary infections.

But 2015’s Middle East Respiratory Syndrome, or MERS, created the playbook that the country has used to break the back of COVID-19.

“MERS was transfixing and frightening to Koreans, because the disease was spreading through crowded hospitals and their waiting rooms,”
“People were getting sick, but they were also afraid of going to the hospital for fear that it would make them even more sick.”

The government made several damaging mistakes before arresting the spread of MERS. In the early days of the epidemic, testing kits were unavailable, as was information about the viral spread. When the government refused to announce which hospitals were witnessing outbreaks, citizens and politicians alike slammed it for its lack of transparency.

In response to MERS, South Korea rewrote much of its infectious-disease-prevention legislation. To expedite testing, it gave laboratories the green light to use unapproved diagnostic kits during a public-health emergency. To expand contact tracing, it gave health authorities warrantless access to CCTV footage and the geolocation data from the new patients’ phones. To increase transparency, the new laws required local governments to send prompt alerts, such as emergency texts, to disclose the recent whereabouts of new patients. “The government has failed, and the people have lost their trust,” declared Moon Jae-in, the head of the opposition party during the MERS outbreak. The public approved of both the sentiment and its source. Two years later, Moon was elected president of South Korea.

Today, south Korea’s COVID-19 response strategy sits atop three pillars: fast and free testing, expansive tracing technology, and mandatory isolation of the most severe cases. Each pillar was shaped by the epidemics that preceded the 2019 novel coronavirus.

[MDlaxfan76]

40-50% of the covid deaths in texas are in nursing homes.
75% in minnesota
60% in massachusetts and maine.
75% in rhode island.
60% in connecticut. more disturbingly, 90% of last week's deaths. even as we know what we know.
68% in pennsylvania. 80% in the pittsburgh area.
60% in washington.
50% in new jersey.
new york was lower in percentages, but now ny is recalibrating every day and looks like it might be a disaster in policy and numbers.
and on and on and on.

not old people. in nursing homes and long term care facilities only. it would seem there's a fairly straightforward way to reduce deaths in a major way, and that's to start treating nursing homes like they are the fort knox of covid.

we can all drone on and on about our solutions. as can the government. we absolutely know these are the centers of the worst outcomes for covid targets. a fraction of the money spent on all other resources to fight the pandemic can be expended to get nursing homes buttoned up. those are monster numbers.

reports of many of them struggling to obtain ppe as hospitals are prioritized. this is where it's happening. supplies, tests, protocols. get them locked down with the highest of protocols until we can determine a sensible way for families to reengage with them.

This is of course correct, need more PPE, need more focus. (which isn't to say short the hospitals!!!)

So, how do we feel about Pence making a show of delivering 'supplies' to a nursing home...with empty boxes for show?

My mother in law is in assisted living. Very strict lockdown, PPE, etc.
So far, no residents infected. But two staff.

But it's a high end facility with apartments, not a low budget nursing home with multiple beds per room.