All things Chinese CoronaVirus

[MDlaxfan76]

95326471_10222782782307791_789160855789895680_n.jpg

How long did it last? 6-7 months?

Guess experts knew at the start that only 100K would die. And it would only last 7 months. Why worry?

You didn’t answer a simple question.

Let me help you, 6ft.
That pandemic looked and felt like a bad flu, something that varies year to year, but is pretty darn inevitably going to come and go.
It turned out to be worse than just a bad flu, 1.5-3X worse.
But no real risk of overwhelmed hospital systems.

This one had clear dynamics that were way, way worse.
Much faster spread, much more deadly fast.

That was obvious out of the gate, at least if you were listening to the scientists, watching what was happening in Wuhan.

And weren't trying desperately to ignore it. Ostrich.

And there were no "flu" tests available in 1969. So a lot of the determination of the depth of the problem were after the fact - looking at excess mortality.

Which makes my point. No expert knew the possible outcome of the pandemic. When 10's of thou=sands were dying. But life went on.

Do you even remember the Asian Flu pandemic in 1968.

Actually, yes. I was 11. There was concern, but not much more than the normal annual flu concern.
Which makes sense as at most it was 3X worse than a low year. Only 50% more than a bad flu year.

Not remotely the sort of crushed hospital systems.
You do realize that with a no distancing response, estimates are 10-20X US deaths compared to that pandemic? Despite 50 years of health science in-between?

And that's just the COVID-19 direct deaths, not the huge ancillary death rate caused by overwhelmed hospital systems. Even with all of NY's efforts to distance, these other deaths have jumped as well.

And not including the potential social disorder if food systems are overwhelmed.

[Peter Brown]

It appears as if New York seeded the entire country.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/07/us/n ... break.html

‘But Florida beaches....’

Anyone still touting Cuomo?

Yes, I am. I think he's been doing a heck of a job. He speaks in complete sentences, tells it as best he can with the information he's given. Has been realistic but you can't deal with what you don't know....and there's still a whole lot to be learned about this virus. To say NY seeded the entire country is an irresponsible jab on your part. Had anyone known what they know now (20-20 hindsight) I'm sure things would have run differently. The initial focus was on China, meanwhile countless numbers passed through NY coming from Europe....who, other than you, knew that was a big mistake?
For those who can't see the article (it's a little choppy in that charts don't print but you can still get the gist):

I'm quoting the New York Times.

Travel From New York City Seeded Wave of U.S. Outbreaks; The coronavirus outbreak in New York City became the primary source of infections around the United States, researchers have determined...

[MDlaxfan76]

95326471_10222782782307791_789160855789895680_n.jpg

How long did it last? 6-7 months?

Guess experts knew at the start that only 100K would die. And it would only last 7 months. Why worry?

You didn’t answer a simple question.

Let me help you, 6ft.
That pandemic looked and felt like a bad flu, something that varies year to year, but is pretty darn inevitably going to come and go.
It turned out to be worse than just a bad flu, 1.5-3X worse.
But no real risk of overwhelmed hospital systems.

This one had clear dynamics that were way, way worse.
Much faster spread, much more deadly fast.

That was obvious out of the gate, at least if you were listening to the scientists, watching what was happening in Wuhan.

And weren't trying desperately to ignore it. Ostrich.

So let me understand your point.

If the threat isn't scary bad 100K dead is OK

But a big scary pandemic 100K dead is way too many.

huh?
did I say 100k is "too many"..it's going to be more.

Could it have been less? Likely.
But it was definitely going to be rough and very difficult to manage.
It required swift, thorough action and consistently beaten back at each turn.
But it sure as shooting wasn't going to magically go away or just be 'like the flu'...

It ain't the same bug, 6ft.

Unchecked with distancing, it was going to kill millions in the US...we're playing for time to get therapies and vaccines, meanwhile a lot of folks are going to die.

The question is how many and whether our systems are overwhelmed.

It's the idiots who purposely risk others that tick me off.

[MDlaxfan76]

It appears as if New York seeded the entire country.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/07/us/n ... break.html

‘But Florida beaches....’

Anyone still touting Cuomo?

Yes, I am. I think he's been doing a heck of a job. He speaks in complete sentences, tells it as best he can with the information he's given. Has been realistic but you can't deal with what you don't know....and there's still a whole lot to be learned about this virus. To say NY seeded the entire country is an irresponsible jab on your part. Had anyone known what they know now (20-20 hindsight) I'm sure things would have run differently. The initial focus was on China, meanwhile countless numbers passed through NY coming from Europe....who, other than you, knew that was a big mistake?
For those who can't see the article (it's a little choppy in that charts don't print but you can still get the gist):

I'm quoting the New York Times.

Travel From New York City Seeded Wave of U.S. Outbreaks; The coronavirus outbreak in New York City became the primary source of infections around the United States, researchers have determined...

So what, PB?
Did you know that previously?
Or were you too busy applauding the half-assed China travel ban?

"seeded"???
yes, no testing early on allowed the infection to grow undetected and to spread from there.

By comparison to the Florida beaches timing, the virus was known to be here in large amounts and it's asymptomatic transmission was known well...yes, Florida consciously allowed those partiers to continue, knowing they'd later leave to far flung locations taking with them any infections picked up as asymptomatic carriers.

That conscious decision is the issue PB...as is all conscious decisions being made going forward.

[SCLaxAttack]

Wouldn't surprise me one bit. Trump should have shut JFK, LGA, and EWR when he shut down air traffic from China. Wait, what? He didn't shut down China air traffic? Or traffic from Europe? Well I'll be.

Round two - new strains of the virus being found country-wide from states that've opened too soon.

[DMac]

It appears as if New York seeded the entire country.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/07/us/n ... break.html

‘But Florida beaches....’

Anyone still touting Cuomo?

Yes, I am. I think he's been doing a heck of a job. He speaks in complete sentences, tells it as best he can with the information he's given. Has been realistic but you can't deal with what you don't know....and there's still a whole lot to be learned about this virus. To say NY seeded the entire country is an irresponsible jab on your part. Had anyone known what they know now (20-20 hindsight) I'm sure things would have run differently. The initial focus was on China, meanwhile countless numbers passed through NY coming from Europe....who, other than you, knew that was a big mistake?
For those who can't see the article (it's a little choppy in that charts don't print but you can still get the gist):

I'm quoting the New York Times.

Travel From New York City Seeded Wave of U.S. Outbreaks; The coronavirus outbreak in New York City became the primary source of infections around the United States, researchers have determined...

The point is, you want to hold Cuomo (the bad D guy) responsible for the seeding.
That's just ridiculous, he was in the dark like the rest of us were.

[RedFromMI]

It appears as if New York seeded the entire country.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/07/us/n ... break.html

‘But Florida beaches....’

Anyone still touting Cuomo?

Yes, I am. I think he's been doing a heck of a job. He speaks in complete sentences, tells it as best he can with the information he's given. Has been realistic but you can't deal with what you don't know....and there's still a whole lot to be learned about this virus. To say NY seeded the entire country is an irresponsible jab on your part. Had anyone known what they know now (20-20 hindsight) I'm sure things would have run differently. The initial focus was on China, meanwhile countless numbers passed through NY coming from Europe....who, other than you, knew that was a big mistake?
For those who can't see the article (it's a little choppy in that charts don't print but you can still get the gist):

I'm quoting the New York Times.

Travel From New York City Seeded Wave of U.S. Outbreaks; The coronavirus outbreak in New York City became the primary source of infections around the United States, researchers have determined...

So what, PB?
Did you know that previously?
Or were you too busy applauding the half-assed China travel ban?

And of course the states are responsible for handling people coming in from overseas, right? It's not the Trump administration's fault they had no effective screening of incoming travelers (in fact crowded them all together waiting for their turn in the airport for entry)?

[Peter Brown]

It appears as if New York seeded the entire country.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/07/us/n ... break.html

‘But Florida beaches....’

Anyone still touting Cuomo?

Yes, I am. I think he's been doing a heck of a job. He speaks in complete sentences, tells it as best he can with the information he's given. Has been realistic but you can't deal with what you don't know....and there's still a whole lot to be learned about this virus. To say NY seeded the entire country is an irresponsible jab on your part. Had anyone known what they know now (20-20 hindsight) I'm sure things would have run differently. The initial focus was on China, meanwhile countless numbers passed through NY coming from Europe....who, other than you, knew that was a big mistake?
For those who can't see the article (it's a little choppy in that charts don't print but you can still get the gist):

I'm quoting the New York Times.

Travel From New York City Seeded Wave of U.S. Outbreaks; The coronavirus outbreak in New York City became the primary source of infections around the United States, researchers have determined...

The point is, you want to hold Cuomo (the bad D guy) responsible for the seeding.
That's just ridiculous, he was in the dark like the rest of us were.

No doubt.

But then how does one square that common sense sentiment with this MDLax post in March:

"We're talking about competence in a crisis. DeSantis has definitely cost lives"

Have any of you stated that Cuomo has 'cost lives'? By every measure, Cuomo is wildly worse.

Just looking for consistency...

[Typical Lax Dad]

We have crossed the 70,000 threshold in 38 days and the President’s team has advised that it could get worse.



We have no immunity. Thank goodness that this virus isn’t more deadly. We would be turning off the lights on the economy.

[MDlaxfan76]

It appears as if New York seeded the entire country.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/07/us/n ... break.html

‘But Florida beaches....’

Anyone still touting Cuomo?

Yes, I am. I think he's been doing a heck of a job. He speaks in complete sentences, tells it as best he can with the information he's given. Has been realistic but you can't deal with what you don't know....and there's still a whole lot to be learned about this virus. To say NY seeded the entire country is an irresponsible jab on your part. Had anyone known what they know now (20-20 hindsight) I'm sure things would have run differently. The initial focus was on China, meanwhile countless numbers passed through NY coming from Europe....who, other than you, knew that was a big mistake?
For those who can't see the article (it's a little choppy in that charts don't print but you can still get the gist):

I'm quoting the New York Times.

Travel From New York City Seeded Wave of U.S. Outbreaks; The coronavirus outbreak in New York City became the primary source of infections around the United States, researchers have determined...

The point is, you want to hold Cuomo (the bad D guy) responsible for the seeding.
That's just ridiculous, he was in the dark like the rest of us were.

No doubt.

But then how does one square that common sense sentiment with this MDLax post in March:

"We're talking about competence in a crisis. DeSantis has definitely cost lives"

Have any of you stated that Cuomo has 'cost lives'? By every measure, Cuomo is wildly worse.

Just looking for consistency...

Answering again.

Without testing approved and available from the Federal government, Cuomo and all other Governors were blind in the early days. So, the virus grew rapidly through asymptomatic spread. As it will.

DeSantis made a conscious decision much later, knowing that the virus was in Florida and that it was capable of spreading rapidly through asymptomatic spread to allow the partiers to go at it willy nilly, knowing they would then take any infections they'd gained back across the country to other communities.

That was a conscious decision.

But sure, had we (or more importantly Cuomo) known how significant the spread already was in NY, he could have shut down sooner. And that would have saved lives.

But I hold the Trump Administration to account for the testing debacle. And for Trump himself's consistently dismissive messaging to the public.

[DMac]

So what you're saying, PB, is that one irresponsible jab begets another one.
Nice. Good for the page count, but doesn't put much in the accomplished column.

[Typical Lax Dad]

A little edutainment

[Peter Brown]

It appears as if New York seeded the entire country.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/07/us/n ... break.html

‘But Florida beaches....’

Anyone still touting Cuomo?

Yes, I am. I think he's been doing a heck of a job. He speaks in complete sentences, tells it as best he can with the information he's given. Has been realistic but you can't deal with what you don't know....and there's still a whole lot to be learned about this virus. To say NY seeded the entire country is an irresponsible jab on your part. Had anyone known what they know now (20-20 hindsight) I'm sure things would have run differently. The initial focus was on China, meanwhile countless numbers passed through NY coming from Europe....who, other than you, knew that was a big mistake?
For those who can't see the article (it's a little choppy in that charts don't print but you can still get the gist):

I'm quoting the New York Times.

Travel From New York City Seeded Wave of U.S. Outbreaks; The coronavirus outbreak in New York City became the primary source of infections around the United States, researchers have determined...

The point is, you want to hold Cuomo (the bad D guy) responsible for the seeding.
That's just ridiculous, he was in the dark like the rest of us were.

No doubt.

But then how does one square that common sense sentiment with this MDLax post in March:

"We're talking about competence in a crisis. DeSantis has definitely cost lives"

Have any of you stated that Cuomo has 'cost lives'? By every measure, Cuomo is wildly worse.

Just looking for consistency...

Answering again.

Without testing approved and available from the Federal government, Cuomo and all other Governors were blind in the early days. So, the virus grew rapidly through asymptomatic spread. As it will.

DeSantis made a conscious decision much later, knowing that the virus was in Florida and that it was capable of spreading rapidly through asymptomatic spread to allow the partiers to go at it willy nilly, knowing they would then take any infections they'd gained back across the country to other communities.

That was a conscious decision.

But sure, had we (or more importantly Cuomo) known how significant the spread already was in NY, he could have shut down sooner. And that would have saved lives.

But I hold the Trump Administration to account for the testing debacle. And for Trump himself's consistently dismissive messaging to the public.

You got a jones for DeSantis, as does most of the Democratic Party, which would be cool if you'd simply admit it and not play word salad games trying to justify it. You don't like the guy for some reason, no problem; he probably wouldn't like you either!

By every statistical measure, Ron has handled this Covid virus issue way better than any state, let alone Cuomo, who has handled it maybe not as well. Stats do not lie. And I don't really blame Cuomo. But you came on here in March and kept repeating the 'DeSantis will cause deaths by seeding every state with Spring Breakers going home'.

Here is an exact quote: "We're talking about competence in a crisis. DeSantis has definitely cost lives."

Me personally, I know you don't know what you are talking about, but opinions are opinions and you're free to post them. The thing is, have you similarly castigated Cuomo? If so, feel free to post that quote!

Just looking for consistency.

[Peter Brown]

So what you're saying, PB, is that one irresponsible jab begets another one.
Nice. Good for the page count, but doesn't put much in the accomplished column.

I thought the NYT was like a Bible to Democrats, infallible. Thought I was doing you a solid.

You ought to see the quotes I'm not allowed to use because they spring from the pages of The Federalist!

[DMac]

You're not doing me any solids with the D and R stuff, I'm neither and have let you know that more than once but you've labelled me (in your mind) so that's how it is, I guess.

[MDlaxfan76]

It appears as if New York seeded the entire country.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/07/us/n ... break.html

‘But Florida beaches....’

Anyone still touting Cuomo?

Yes, I am. I think he's been doing a heck of a job. He speaks in complete sentences, tells it as best he can with the information he's given. Has been realistic but you can't deal with what you don't know....and there's still a whole lot to be learned about this virus. To say NY seeded the entire country is an irresponsible jab on your part. Had anyone known what they know now (20-20 hindsight) I'm sure things would have run differently. The initial focus was on China, meanwhile countless numbers passed through NY coming from Europe....who, other than you, knew that was a big mistake?
For those who can't see the article (it's a little choppy in that charts don't print but you can still get the gist):

I'm quoting the New York Times.

Travel From New York City Seeded Wave of U.S. Outbreaks; The coronavirus outbreak in New York City became the primary source of infections around the United States, researchers have determined...

The point is, you want to hold Cuomo (the bad D guy) responsible for the seeding.
That's just ridiculous, he was in the dark like the rest of us were.

No doubt.

But then how does one square that common sense sentiment with this MDLax post in March:

"We're talking about competence in a crisis. DeSantis has definitely cost lives"

Have any of you stated that Cuomo has 'cost lives'? By every measure, Cuomo is wildly worse.

Just looking for consistency...

Answering again.

Without testing approved and available from the Federal government, Cuomo and all other Governors were blind in the early days. So, the virus grew rapidly through asymptomatic spread. As it will.

DeSantis made a conscious decision much later, knowing that the virus was in Florida and that it was capable of spreading rapidly through asymptomatic spread to allow the partiers to go at it willy nilly, knowing they would then take any infections they'd gained back across the country to other communities.

That was a conscious decision.

But sure, had we (or more importantly Cuomo) known how significant the spread already was in NY, he could have shut down sooner. And that would have saved lives.

But I hold the Trump Administration to account for the testing debacle. And for Trump himself's consistently dismissive messaging to the public.

You got a jones for DeSantis, as does most of the Democratic Party, which would be cool if you'd simply admit it and not play word salad games trying to justify it. You don't like the guy for some reason, no problem; he probably wouldn't like you either!

By every statistical measure, Ron has handled this Covid virus issue way better than any state, let alone Cuomo, who has handled it maybe not as well. Stats do not lie. And I don't really blame Cuomo. But you came on here in March and kept repeating the 'DeSantis will cause deaths by seeding every state with Spring Breakers going home'.

Here is an exact quote: "We're talking about competence in a crisis. DeSantis has definitely cost lives."

Me personally, I know you don't know what you are talking about, but opinions are opinions and you're free to post them. The thing is, have you similarly castigated Cuomo? If so, feel free to post that quote!

Just looking for consistency.

I've answered twice, PB...please read my responses.

Way different timing.

No, my only issue with DeSantis is that he chose to go all-in as a Trump sycophant. And that played out in how he handled spring break.

I think Florida has been super fortunate not to have been where the European virus first got traction in the US.
I do think their health administration has done a good job.

But sure, I'd likely think well of DeSantis had he not chosen to be such a Trump sycophant and instead had charted a more independent course like my GOP governor. After all, I'm not a Dem!

[wgdsr]

i guess you are welcome to assume that what he writes isn't what he means, really.

i happen to think he's correct. that to have really effective testing (and contact tracing) as a prime weapon, as opposed to a secondary one, we need those kind of numbers.

however, i also think we are nowhere near capable of getting them.

Yeah, I just don't read "targeted" as "all".

I do think what he's suggesting is way, way more testing than we have in the pipeline at this point.
I read him as saying to scale the heck up America.
Get with it NOW.

The rollout of this effort needs to begin with, in addition to known symptomatic cases, medical and other first responders, senior care, etc test and trace. Add to that essential workers in congregated work conditions, test and trace with some regularity. Add to that other high count situations, where lots of different people come into contact with potential spreaders...test and trace...

Layer this up as capacity increases.

Meanwhile, we need to do all the other best practices.

The only justification not to do an enormous effort to scale testing is if we think this going to magically go away.

or if it is so highly transmissible partly because so many are asymptomatic. did you see my link on prisons? thousands. 95% asymptomatic. who are you going to "target"?

btw, c cuomo is on yelling testing, testing, tracing, testing and puts gupta on to put a number on it and he says 20 m per day. good luck!

the virus has evolved or we just didn't see it clearly enough. spreaders are everywhere. heard quite a while ago biggest shedding time is right before or just as symptoms arrive. i guess they meant if there are any.

Fair argument. Indeed, if we test enough to find that huge % of people have previously contracted and were asymptomatic, and we find that they cannot re-contract and become carriers again, we can slow down testing as a key measure.

But yeah, we COULD do 20 million tests per day if we really wanted to do so.
I don't see that as necessary for targeted, more like 5 million.

Of course, what matters is for the virus to be beaten down to a lower level in order to make that possible.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/07/coronav ... ummer.html
that's an nih director talking about a program that is astonishing his peers and colleagues by its ambition. soliciting for poc tests from the scientific community... in order to maybe provide "millions" more tests by the end of the summer. 4-5 months away. whatever millions means.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/07/coronav ... ummer.html
that's gottlieb talking about the 1.5 million tests per week now (215,000 per day) maybe getting to a capacity of as much as 3 million per week (430,000 per day) by the end of the month. and then higher in june july and august.

you're at 5 million (35 million per week).
gupta's at 20 million (140 million per week. he took that from the harvard paper).

i am all for more testing. how can anyone not be? again, just my opinion, really don't think people get how where we are isn't going to be won with testing as the lead. the testing we are capable of doing doesn't match the spread. doesn't match the logistics. doesn't match the timing. chasing our tail, again. not a panacea. it's help on the margin at least until the fall. hopefully, we've wrestled this with other measures by then.

[MDlaxfan76]

i guess you are welcome to assume that what he writes isn't what he means, really.

i happen to think he's correct. that to have really effective testing (and contact tracing) as a prime weapon, as opposed to a secondary one, we need those kind of numbers.

however, i also think we are nowhere near capable of getting them.

Yeah, I just don't read "targeted" as "all".

I do think what he's suggesting is way, way more testing than we have in the pipeline at this point.
I read him as saying to scale the heck up America.
Get with it NOW.

The rollout of this effort needs to begin with, in addition to known symptomatic cases, medical and other first responders, senior care, etc test and trace. Add to that essential workers in congregated work conditions, test and trace with some regularity. Add to that other high count situations, where lots of different people come into contact with potential spreaders...test and trace...

Layer this up as capacity increases.

Meanwhile, we need to do all the other best practices.

The only justification not to do an enormous effort to scale testing is if we think this going to magically go away.

or if it is so highly transmissible partly because so many are asymptomatic. did you see my link on prisons? thousands. 95% asymptomatic. who are you going to "target"?

btw, c cuomo is on yelling testing, testing, tracing, testing and puts gupta on to put a number on it and he says 20 m per day. good luck!

the virus has evolved or we just didn't see it clearly enough. spreaders are everywhere. heard quite a while ago biggest shedding time is right before or just as symptoms arrive. i guess they meant if there are any.

Fair argument. Indeed, if we test enough to find that huge % of people have previously contracted and were asymptomatic, and we find that they cannot re-contract and become carriers again, we can slow down testing as a key measure.

But yeah, we COULD do 20 million tests per day if we really wanted to do so.
I don't see that as necessary for targeted, more like 5 million.

Of course, what matters is for the virus to be beaten down to a lower level in order to make that possible.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/07/coronav ... ummer.html
that's an nih director talking about a program that is astonishing his peers and colleagues by its ambition. soliciting for poc tests from the scientific community... in order to maybe provide "millions" more tests by the end of the summer. 4-5 months away. whatever millions means.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/07/coronav ... ummer.html
that's gottlieb talking about the 1.5 million tests per week now (215,000 per day) maybe getting to a capacity of as much as 3 million per week (430,000 per day) by the end of the month. and then higher in june july and august.

you're at 5 million (35 million per week).
gupta's at 20 million (140 million per week. he took that from the harvard paper).

i am all for more testing. how can anyone not be? again, just my opinion, really don't think people get how where we are isn't going to be won with testing as the lead. the testing we are capable of doing doesn't match the spread. doesn't match the logistics. doesn't match the timing. chasing our tail, again. not a panacea. it's help on the margin at least until the fall. hopefully, we've wrestled this with other measures by then.

I think we are actually very, very close in our views on this.

I think testing becomes the best tool only if we can manage to get the #'s way down instead of growing across the country. Right now we're going the wrong direction.

And no, we don't have the full force and weight of our system, led by the federal government to do what it will take to get to the necessary scale.

Which means that all the other measures we can take will be the best we can do, with whatever testing we can muster.

The more testing that we can do, the better, (under any circumstance) but our best opportunity to use it to actually squelch the spread to near nought was an opportunity missed early on. We may or may not get that opportunity again.

[Typical Lax Dad]

i guess you are welcome to assume that what he writes isn't what he means, really.

i happen to think he's correct. that to have really effective testing (and contact tracing) as a prime weapon, as opposed to a secondary one, we need those kind of numbers.

however, i also think we are nowhere near capable of getting them.

Yeah, I just don't read "targeted" as "all".

I do think what he's suggesting is way, way more testing than we have in the pipeline at this point.
I read him as saying to scale the heck up America.
Get with it NOW.

The rollout of this effort needs to begin with, in addition to known symptomatic cases, medical and other first responders, senior care, etc test and trace. Add to that essential workers in congregated work conditions, test and trace with some regularity. Add to that other high count situations, where lots of different people come into contact with potential spreaders...test and trace...

Layer this up as capacity increases.

Meanwhile, we need to do all the other best practices.

The only justification not to do an enormous effort to scale testing is if we think this going to magically go away.

or if it is so highly transmissible partly because so many are asymptomatic. did you see my link on prisons? thousands. 95% asymptomatic. who are you going to "target"?

btw, c cuomo is on yelling testing, testing, tracing, testing and puts gupta on to put a number on it and he says 20 m per day. good luck!

the virus has evolved or we just didn't see it clearly enough. spreaders are everywhere. heard quite a while ago biggest shedding time is right before or just as symptoms arrive. i guess they meant if there are any.

Fair argument. Indeed, if we test enough to find that huge % of people have previously contracted and were asymptomatic, and we find that they cannot re-contract and become carriers again, we can slow down testing as a key measure.

But yeah, we COULD do 20 million tests per day if we really wanted to do so.
I don't see that as necessary for targeted, more like 5 million.

Of course, what matters is for the virus to be beaten down to a lower level in order to make that possible.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/07/coronav ... ummer.html
that's an nih director talking about a program that is astonishing his peers and colleagues by its ambition. soliciting for poc tests from the scientific community... in order to maybe provide "millions" more tests by the end of the summer. 4-5 months away. whatever millions means.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/07/coronav ... ummer.html
that's gottlieb talking about the 1.5 million tests per week now (215,000 per day) maybe getting to a capacity of as much as 3 million per week (430,000 per day) by the end of the month. and then higher in june july and august.

you're at 5 million (35 million per week).
gupta's at 20 million (140 million per week. he took that from the harvard paper).

i am all for more testing. how can anyone not be? again, just my opinion, really don't think people get how where we are isn't going to be won with testing as the lead. the testing we are capable of doing doesn't match the spread. doesn't match the logistics. doesn't match the timing. chasing our tail, again. not a panacea. it's help on the margin at least until the fall. hopefully, we've wrestled this with other measures by then.

We are playing catch up because the spread has been so vast. My perspective is the fewer deaths by county, the less likely the virus has spread. In many counties, mobility is not so great that travel poses a real spread threat. Test those that travel outside of their county? In areas with a higher death counts, the testing should be wider and more frequent. I am sure an optimal testing state will be rolled out. Getting the capacity up comes first. Otherwise a strategy to meet an objective is meaningless.

[ggait]

Which makes my point. No expert knew the possible outcome of the pandemic. When 10's of thou=sands were dying. But life went on.

Do you even remember the Asian Flu pandemic in 1968.

Six --

1. I totally agree with you that 100k USA deaths (mostly old sick people) and 1 million deaths worldwide WITH NO MEASURES DEPLOYED is not that big a deal. It is in the ballpark range of, basically, shirt happens. 2-3x what you get with a typical flu season. Acceptable; just suck it up and move on. I personally don't remember anything about flu in 1968 -- because no extraordinary measures had to be deployed that impacted my life as a kid.

2. 1918 pandemic was a big deal. 675k USA deaths (when USA pop was 103 million fyi), 50 million worldwide. Even with significant measures deployed (although the measures were rudimentary and deployed late). You'd agree, I'm sure, that the Spanish flu was a big deal and not something to just suck up and accept.

3. So far, Covid is looking like 134k USA deaths (per UW) WITH UNPRECEDENTED MEASURES DEPLOYED. Basically in line with Fauci/Birks at 100-240k. Without measures deployed, who knows? Fauci/Birks were saying 7 figures.

Covid is not as bad as #2, I agree. Especially since #2 killed a lot of young people. But 100k while doing nothing (#1) and 100k after doing quadruple back flips (#3) are not the same thing.

So if you want to argue that 500+k USA deaths is no big deal and we should just suck it up, go ahead and do that.

But please stop trying to gaslight us all with the idea that #3 is the same as #1. I don't think you are that stupid, so are you just being a jerk?

Serious, honest question for you Six.