All things Chinese CoronaVirus

[old salt]

anyone have an idea/analysis on why michigan is doing so poorly to this point?
no ethnic or age disparity with the rest of the u.s. detroit city is/was bad but accounts for ~25% ish of the total so you could throw that out and they'd still be in bad shape.
they seem to be an outlier. if not the outlier.

Nothing definitive - but here are some possibilities: (from https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-healt ... -neighbors)

Michigan could have been hit harder because the virus may have already been in the community for days or weeks before the symptoms or testing.

Among the possibilities Hutton and others have mentioned for the rapid spread in Michigan:

Detroit Metropolitan Airport, which has a large international hub and flights to Wuhan, China, where the outbreak originated in December and its airport remained open until Jan. 23.

Supply lines between Detroit automakers and Wuhan, a major auto hub and home to five car manufacturers including Dongfeng Motor, one of the biggest in China. General Motors has 15 assembly plants in China with its partners, while Ford has six and Fiat Chrysler has two.

Ties between automakers, particularly FCA, and Italy, which has more than 77,000 cases and 12,000 deaths.

Michigan's March 10 presidential primary and big campaign rallies leading up to it, including one that drew 6,000 in Detroit for Bernie Sanders on March 6. In contrast, Ohio cancelled its March 17 primary.

By my tally -- the greater Detroit metro area accounts for approx 3500(JHU) of 4000(NPR) MI deaths.
Go to the JHU dashboard, + zoom in on the dots in the Detroit area, look at their size & click on each, then add up their component deaths sub totals.
From Detroit, W to Lansing, N to Flint, then compare to the dots in the Chicago, Boston & NYC metro areas.
Not unlike StL & B'more, where the adjoining county has as many, or more, deaths reported.
Consistent with major NE urban population centers.

if you're adding in flint, lansing, etc. you're just looking at the majority of the population. not 80+%, but the majority.
lansing is the same distance to detroit as philly to ny.
anyway, their numbers are way out of whack from what you'd infer given everything.

OK. Remove Fllnt, Lansing & Ann Arbor.
Detroit' is in Wayne Co (1893 deaths), bordered on the N by Oakland Co (757) & Macomb Co (628), containing Detroit metro commuter communities.
Those 3 counties account for 3278 of MI's approx 4000 deaths.
MI's outbreak is concentrated in the SE corner of the state, in & around the Detroit metro area.
https://www.fox2detroit.com/news/track- ... active-map

[wgdsr]

thanks and this is kinda my point. what are 2 (or 3 if some of wayne is suburban) suburban counties in michigan doing with more deaths than florida? and so many other states.

[a fan]

Car industry. Lots of execs and engineers traveling back and forth to Europe and China all the time.

Just a guess, obviously....

[old salt]

thanks and this is kinda my point. what are 2 (or 3 if some of wayne is suburban) suburban counties in michigan doing with more deaths than florida? and so many other states.

I find it analogous to the NYC metro area, including LI, SW CT. & N NJ.
or DC metro = DC, adjacent NVA & adjacent Mont/PG Co.s in MD. (now > 1000 deaths)
Downtown + the commuter bedroom communities.

FL obviously has a more able Governor (right PB ?) ..
He took proactive measures to protect Sr communities
He's yet to unlock Dade, Broward & Palm Beach Co.'s (775 of 1365 FL deaths).

[wgdsr]

thanks and this is kinda my point. what are 2 (or 3 if some of wayne is suburban) suburban counties in michigan doing with more deaths than florida? and so many other states.

I find it analogous to the NYC metro area, including LI, SW CT. & N NJ.
or DC metro = DC, adjacent NVA & adjacent Mont/PG Co.s in MD. (now > 1000 deaths)
Downtown + the commuter bedroom communities.

FL obviously has a more able Governor (right PB ?) ..
He took proactive measures to protect Sr communities
He's yet to unlock Dade, Broward & Palm Beach.

thanks. dc area has about 6m + and probably around 12 to 1300 deaths. detroit metro 4.2 million and as you say over 3,000 deaths. that's the difference i'm talking about. nyc metro area most certainly is a hub for int'l travel, and for my money the transit system (still not fully addressed) and tight living, walking quarters make it easy to understand how they are where they are.

[old salt]

thanks and this is kinda my point. what are 2 (or 3 if some of wayne is suburban) suburban counties in michigan doing with more deaths than florida? and so many other states.

I find it analogous to the NYC metro area, including LI, SW CT. & N NJ.
or DC metro = DC, adjacent NVA & adjacent Mont/PG Co.s in MD. (now > 1000 deaths)
Downtown + the commuter bedroom communities.

FL obviously has a more able Governor (right PB ?) ..
He took proactive measures to protect Sr communities
He's yet to unlock Dade, Broward & Palm Beach.

thanks. dc area has about 6m + and probably around 12 to 1300 deaths. detroit metro 4.2 million and as you say over 3,000 deaths. that's the difference i'm talking about. nyc metro area most certainly is a hub for int'l travel, and for my money the transit system (still not fully addressed) and tight living, walking quarters make it easy to understand how they are where they are.

Yep, & much of DC can afford to shut down. Like 2 mos of snow days.
Does Detroit have a larger "underserved" population that's more vulnerable, healthwise ?

[holmes435]

Antarctica currently has 0 cases of Covid-19.

It's due to the ice-olation.

[RedFromMI]

thanks and this is kinda my point. what are 2 (or 3 if some of wayne is suburban) suburban counties in michigan doing with more deaths than florida? and so many other states.

I find it analogous to the NYC metro area, including LI, SW CT. & N NJ.
or DC metro = DC, adjacent NVA & adjacent Mont/PG Co.s in MD. (now > 1000 deaths)
Downtown + the commuter bedroom communities.

FL obviously has a more able Governor (right PB ?) ..
He took proactive measures to protect Sr communities
He's yet to unlock Dade, Broward & Palm Beach Co.'s (775 of 1365 FL deaths).

DeSantis did less than you think with S. Florida - much of that was done via local officials (D and R) who knew that they needed action pretty fast. I flew down on Wednesday March 11 into PBI - same day guy flew in from NYC infected with COVID-19 on a Jet Blue flight (I came in on American). First known infection for Palm Beach County. Started isolating my parents (86) by Thursday, and nearly complete isolation starting with about Sunday (when I flew back). Was not long before things really started shutting down for Palm Beach county and to the south.

My parents church on that Sunday even reached out beforehand and suggested that any parishoners over a certain age not attend beginning on that Sunday (March 15). Knowledgible people were taking it seriously then.

DeSantis made his version of a stay-at-home order 4/2. If it wasn't for the actions of those southern Florida pols the state would have been a disaster.

[wgdsr]

thanks and this is kinda my point. what are 2 (or 3 if some of wayne is suburban) suburban counties in michigan doing with more deaths than florida? and so many other states.

I find it analogous to the NYC metro area, including LI, SW CT. & N NJ.
or DC metro = DC, adjacent NVA & adjacent Mont/PG Co.s in MD. (now > 1000 deaths)
Downtown + the commuter bedroom communities.

FL obviously has a more able Governor (right PB ?) ..
He took proactive measures to protect Sr communities
He's yet to unlock Dade, Broward & Palm Beach.

thanks. dc area has about 6m + and probably around 12 to 1300 deaths. detroit metro 4.2 million and as you say over 3,000 deaths. that's the difference i'm talking about. nyc metro area most certainly is a hub for int'l travel, and for my money the transit system (still not fully addressed) and tight living, walking quarters make it easy to understand how they are where they are.

Yep, & much of DC can afford to shut down. Like 2 mos of snow days.
Does Detroit have a larger "underserved" population that's more vulnerable, healthwise ?

on average oakland and macomb county seem to do just fine. and poverty line is 9-11% vs 7-9+% for dc area.
maybe it could be a lot of things together. they just seem to be a major outlier.

[Typical Lax Dad]

thanks and this is kinda my point. what are 2 (or 3 if some of wayne is suburban) suburban counties in michigan doing with more deaths than florida? and so many other states.

I find it analogous to the NYC metro area, including LI, SW CT. & N NJ.
or DC metro = DC, adjacent NVA & adjacent Mont/PG Co.s in MD. (now > 1000 deaths)
Downtown + the commuter bedroom communities.

FL obviously has a more able Governor (right PB ?) ..
He took proactive measures to protect Sr communities
He's yet to unlock Dade, Broward & Palm Beach.

thanks. dc area has about 6m + and probably around 12 to 1300 deaths. detroit metro 4.2 million and as you say over 3,000 deaths. that's the difference i'm talking about. nyc metro area most certainly is a hub for int'l travel, and for my money the transit system (still not fully addressed) and tight living, walking quarters make it easy to understand how they are where they are.

Yep, & much of DC can afford to shut down. Like 2 mos of snow days.
Does Detroit have a larger "underserved" population that's more vulnerable, healthwise ?

on average oakland and macomb county seem to do just fine. and poverty line is 9-11% vs 7-9+% for dc area.
maybe it could be a lot of things together. they just seem to be a major outlier.

Detroit isn’t DC. Some beautiful suburbs though...really nice.

https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/ ... 622687002/

[kramerica.inc]

I'm not sure, but I do hear that CDC is badly underfunded, with most energies in other areas, not something like this. We're grossly underfunded in a bunch of areas of systemic public health research and mitigation. Don't get me started...

They are rightfully underfunded.
They are about as useful as a bandaid on a gunshot wound. For the past 10 years I would get the bi-weekly recurring meeting invite to the CDC's required safety reporting meetings at each military base that housed chem weapon stockpiles. For 10 years we got to listen to them talk for an hour about supervisors reminding employees about slips and falls, people not wearing safety hardhats, and avoiding fender benders in the parking lot. But no real chem demil safety. CDC has been a waste of money for decades. Not surprising they are backwards on most of this.

[MDlaxfan76]

I'm not sure, but I do hear that CDC is badly underfunded, with most energies in other areas, not something like this. We're grossly underfunded in a bunch of areas of systemic public health research and mitigation. Don't get me started...

They are rightfully underfunded.
They are about as useful as a bandaid on a gunshot wound. For the past 10 years I would get the bi-weekly recurring meeting invite to the CDC's required safety reporting meetings at each military base that housed chem weapon stockpiles. For 10 years we got to listen to them talk for an hour about supervisors reminding employees about slips and falls, people not wearing safety hardhats, and avoiding fender benders in the parking lot. But no real chem demil safety. CDC has been a waste of money for decades. Not surprising they are backwards on most of this.

The CDC was doing chemical weapons meetings? Really?
I wouldn't think that was anywhere near their expertise.

Biological weapons, maybe, but would still think that'd be a DoD expertise.

What you describe sounds more like OSHA, not CDC.

[kramerica.inc]

I'm not sure, but I do hear that CDC is badly underfunded, with most energies in other areas, not something like this. We're grossly underfunded in a bunch of areas of systemic public health research and mitigation. Don't get me started...

They are rightfully underfunded.
They are about as useful as a bandaid on a gunshot wound. For the past 10 years I would get the bi-weekly recurring meeting invite to the CDC's required safety reporting meetings at each military base that housed chem weapon stockpiles. For 10 years we got to listen to them talk for an hour about supervisors reminding employees about slips and falls, people not wearing safety hardhats, and avoiding fender benders in the parking lot. But no real chem demil safety. CDC has been a waste of money for decades. Not surprising they are backwards on most of this.

The CDC was doing chemical weapons meetings? Really?
I wouldn't think that was anywhere near their expertise.

Biological weapons, maybe, but would still think that'd be a DoD expertise.

What you describe sounds more like OSHA, not CDC.

Yup, CDC. No OSHA involvement. I remember thinking the same thing at those first meetings.

[kramerica.inc]

I also remember thinking they would bring something better to the meetings since they were hosting 2 a month...

[cradleandshoot]

Antarctica currently has 0 cases of Covid-19.

It's due to the ice-olation.

[cradleandshoot]

My wife just texted me from work. They were suppose to start up elective procedures today. Someone somewhere in NYS shot that down. There is now a mad scramble by management to try and figure this out. No one has any answers. No one has the slightest clue what is happening. This is how that phrase FUBAR came to be. Too many chiefs and not enough Indians. Is that politically incorrect to say?

[holmes435]

Some dental offices and other nonessential procedure offices opened here today. A lot of our dentist friends are still closed as they just don't have access to the additional PPE they need when dealing with aerosol generating procedures.

[cradleandshoot]

Some dental offices and other nonessential procedure offices opened here today. A lot of our dentist friends are still closed as they just don't have access to the additional PPE they need when dealing with aerosol generating procedures.

Our dentist is closed and has no idea when he can start doing procedures. The powers that be are working on what the new SOP will be.

[6ftstick]

Dr Scott Gottlieb on Squawk Box this morning

Mitigation flattened the curve but extended the persistent plateau. Didn't work as well as we thought it would!!!!!!

Unclear why Florida did so much better than projected scenario.

Persistant virus spread—STILL and for some time to come.

Antibody test at least three times—too many false positives to rely on just one!

With all this uncertainty, NOW AFTER 4 months how are you Trump clowns making claims about what could've been different.

Thats totally baseless.

[MDlaxfan76]

I also remember thinking they would bring something better to the meetings since they were hosting 2 a month...

Certainly sounds like the wrong folks to be doing it, at least with the emphasis you described.

That said, I do see that they have a group involved in this arena.

https://www.cdc.gov/nceh/demil/default.htm