LaxPower Back-Up Stick

10stone5 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 26, 2022 9:49 pm

random observer wrote: ↑Tue Apr 26, 2022 9:42 pm Based on the way things stand right now, if the Ivy only gets 4 slots I'd go so far as to say the NCAA tournament is an objectively rigged game. Everyone loved the RPI all those years that it favored the blue bloods; the media all nodded in agreement when it said the ACC was untouchable and when it said Hopkins belonged over a Rutgers team that beat them twice. But now that the Ivy League is dominating in the non-conference, all of a sudden the RPI is flawed even though it's backing up the results on the field. I just had a look at the resumes, and there are 5 Ivy League teams with inarguably superior resumes to ND and Duke, and a sixth (Harvard) who still compares favorably even though it is closer.

That's not to say Duke or ND couldn't make a deep run in May given the chance, but the results on the field should never come second to subjective judgments on potential and the eye test. Duke has more bad losses than wins of any merit, and they only have one win over a team that will make the tournament. ND has no bad losses but also has only one good win.

Its looking more and more as if one of those ACCs will be
left out - Duke or ND,

so you can bet there will be months of crying and moaning
over RPI.

MoralTerpitude wrote: ↑Tue Apr 26, 2022 10:49 pm

10stone5 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 26, 2022 9:49 pm

random observer wrote: ↑Tue Apr 26, 2022 9:42 pm Based on the way things stand right now, if the Ivy only gets 4 slots I'd go so far as to say the NCAA tournament is an objectively rigged game. Everyone loved the RPI all those years that it favored the blue bloods; the media all nodded in agreement when it said the ACC was untouchable and when it said Hopkins belonged over a Rutgers team that beat them twice. But now that the Ivy League is dominating in the non-conference, all of a sudden the RPI is flawed even though it's backing up the results on the field. I just had a look at the resumes, and there are 5 Ivy League teams with inarguably superior resumes to ND and Duke, and a sixth (Harvard) who still compares favorably even though it is closer.

That's not to say Duke or ND couldn't make a deep run in May given the chance, but the results on the field should never come second to subjective judgments on potential and the eye test. Duke has more bad losses than wins of any merit, and they only have one win over a team that will make the tournament. ND has no bad losses but also has only one good win.

Its looking more and more as if one of those ACCs will be
left out - Duke or ND,

so you can bet there will be months of crying and moaning
over RPI.

So I had been thinking that Duke-Notre Dame is an elimination game, and the winner would get into the NCAA tournament with the additional quality win. But that may not be the case. Per LaxNumbers, which uses RPI, SOS, and QWF to calculate odds of making the tourney, ND’s chances are currently 41%, and Duke’s are 25%. So both have work to do to solidify their spots.

Interestingly, an ACC tournament of sorts is shaping up on May 1st and May 7th. Cuse-ND and Duke-Carolina on the 1st, then ND-Duke at Arlotta on the 7th. If ND or Duke lose on the 1st, they are almost surely eliminated. Cuse is a bad loss at this point, and UNC would be close due to their RPI. If ND and Duke both win, they each still have a shot at the tournament by winning on the 7th.

If Cuse beats ND, the whole scenario could blow up. ND’s RPI takes a hit, which probably can’t get healthy enough with a win over Duke. On the flip side, a win over ND at that point might not help Duke’s RPI as much as it needs to. So the ACC could be left with one entry.

MoralTerpitude wrote: ↑Tue Apr 26, 2022 11:19 pm The problem with Duke is that their quality win factor is -10. If they split the next two, it will still be negative. They arebthe only team in the top 14 of the RPI, with a negative QWF.

If ND loses to Syracuse, their QWF will go negative as well.

QWF is significantly hurting both Duke and Notre Dame.

wgdsr wrote: ↑Tue Apr 26, 2022 11:57 pm
from 2017 - 2019, nc$$ selection went straight rpi. that's not in the selection criteria. the nc$$ chairman in 2019 revealed they put the top 12 rpi on the board (cutoff that year for top 8 at large) and talked a little if it looked good. then they ordered pizza. i made that last sentence up.

it was confirmed we had a new "formula". if qwf or any other such nonsense gets mentioned, you can be sure duke or nd will be in the field if they're on the bubble.

Trumansburger wrote: ↑Wed Apr 27, 2022 7:47 am

wgdsr wrote: ↑Tue Apr 26, 2022 11:57 pm
from 2017 - 2019, nc$$ selection went straight rpi. that's not in the selection criteria. the nc$$ chairman in 2019 revealed they put the top 12 rpi on the board (cutoff that year for top 8 at large) and talked a little if it looked good. then they ordered pizza. i made that last sentence up.

it was confirmed we had a new "formula". if qwf or any other such nonsense gets mentioned, you can be sure duke or nd will be in the field if they're on the bubble.

I remember 2019, Cornell (10-5) didn't get in, while ND (8-6) and Hopkins (8-7) did. ND even got the #7 seed in the tournament. Cornell beat ND head to head that year at South Bend. Don't even get me started on Hopkins that year...

.

The Orfling wrote: ↑Wed Apr 27, 2022 1:36 pm

Trumansburger wrote: ↑Wed Apr 27, 2022 7:47 am

wgdsr wrote: ↑Tue Apr 26, 2022 11:57 pm
from 2017 - 2019, nc$$ selection went straight rpi. that's not in the selection criteria. the nc$$ chairman in 2019 revealed they put the top 12 rpi on the board (cutoff that year for top 8 at large) and talked a little if it looked good. then they ordered pizza. i made that last sentence up.

it was confirmed we had a new "formula". if qwf or any other such nonsense gets mentioned, you can be sure duke or nd will be in the field if they're on the bubble.

I remember 2019, Cornell (10-5) didn't get in, while ND (8-6) and Hopkins (8-7) did. ND even got the #7 seed in the tournament. Cornell beat ND head to head that year at South Bend. Don't even get me started on Hopkins that year...

.

As I recall, 4 out of Cornell’s 5 losses were to Yale (2 losses to the then-defending national champ which made it to the finals of 2019), Penn State (made it to the Final Four), and Penn (NCAA quarterfinal team, had beaten Yale twice, Final Four quality team sharing a bracket with Yale). And neither Yale, Penn or Penn State were a surprise postseason performer — basically Cornell had 4 losses to top 5 teams. Was a tough look at the time and looks worse in hindsight.

10stone5 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 27, 2022 4:26 pm In laf’s number crunching updates as of today,
he’s got Georgetown, Maryland, Penn, Princeton, Rutgers,
Yale, Harvard as locks to make the NCAAs.

MoralTerpitude wrote: ↑Wed Apr 27, 2022 4:33 pm

10stone5 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 27, 2022 4:26 pm In laf’s number crunching updates as of today,
he’s got Georgetown, Maryland, Penn, Princeton, Rutgers,
Yale, Harvard as locks to make the NCAAs.

No UVa? Is that due the possibility of losing to Lafayette? Curious.

FannOLax wrote: ↑Wed Apr 27, 2022 5:16 pm

MoralTerpitude wrote: ↑Wed Apr 27, 2022 4:33 pm

10stone5 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 27, 2022 4:26 pm In laf’s number crunching updates as of today,
he’s got Georgetown, Maryland, Penn, Princeton, Rutgers,
Yale, Harvard as locks to make the NCAAs.

No UVa? Is that due the possibility of losing to Lafayette? Curious.

As defending national champions, UVa seems like a sure thing. Remember 2017, when defending natty champ North Carolina made the dance with an 8-7 record? Maybe the rule is unwritten, but UVa will certainly be invited to the dance.

MoralTerpitude wrote: ↑Tue Apr 26, 2022 11:19 pm The problem with Duke is that their quality win factor is -10. If they split the next two, it will still be negative. They arebthe only team in the top 14 of the RPI, with a negative QWF.

If ND loses to Syracuse, their QWF will go negative as well.

QWF is significantly hurting both Duke and Notre Dame.

Mr3Putt wrote: ↑Wed Apr 27, 2022 7:34 pm

MoralTerpitude wrote: ↑Tue Apr 26, 2022 11:19 pm The problem with Duke is that their quality win factor is -10. If they split the next two, it will still be negative. They arebthe only team in the top 14 of the RPI, with a negative QWF.

If ND loses to Syracuse, their QWF will go negative as well.

QWF is significantly hurting both Duke and Notre Dame.

ND is not losing to Syracuse. It comes down to May game vs Duke ND

MoralTerpitude wrote: ↑Wed Apr 27, 2022 4:33 pm

10stone5 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 27, 2022 4:26 pm In laf’s number crunching updates as of today,
he’s got Georgetown, Maryland, Penn, Princeton, Rutgers,
Yale, Harvard as locks to make the NCAAs.

No UVa? Is that due the possibility of losing to Lafayette? Curious.

Bluecollar wrote: ↑Thu Apr 28, 2022 9:07 am Where are these laf selection probabilities that you mention? Would love to see them!

CU77 wrote: ↑Sat Apr 23, 2022 3:32 pm Yes, assuming Penn beats Dartmouth today (and Penn is up 6-1 early in Q2). In that case, here are all eight remaining scenarios, assuming I have intepreted tie-breaking rules correctly:

Pe>D:

B>D,Y>H,Pr>C: Pr,B,Y,Pe
B>D,Y>H,C>Pr: B,C,Y,H
B>D,H>Y,Pr>C: H,Pr,B,Pe
B>D,H>Y,C>Pr: C,H,B,Y

D>B,Y>H,Pr>C: Y,Pr,B,Pe
D>B,Y>H,C>Pr: C,Y,H,Pr
D>B,H>Y,Pr>C: H,Pr,B,Pe
D>B,H>Y,C>Pr: C,H,B,Y

Trumansburger wrote: ↑Thu Apr 28, 2022 9:53 am

CU77 wrote: ↑Sat Apr 23, 2022 3:32 pm Yes, assuming Penn beats Dartmouth today (and Penn is up 6-1 early in Q2). In that case, here are all eight remaining scenarios, assuming I have intepreted tie-breaking rules correctly:

Pe>D:

B>D,Y>H,Pr>C: Pr,B,Y,Pe
B>D,Y>H,C>Pr: B,C,Y,H
B>D,H>Y,Pr>C: H,Pr,B,Pe
B>D,H>Y,C>Pr: C,H,B,Y

D>B,Y>H,Pr>C: Y,Pr,B,Pe
D>B,Y>H,C>Pr: C,Y,H,Pr
D>B,H>Y,Pr>C: H,Pr,B,Pe
D>B,H>Y,C>Pr: C,H,B,Y

Interestingly, Laf has Penn, Princeton, Yale and Harvard as locks but none of those teams are guaranteed to make the Ivy Tournament.