Our Undeclared Wars

[a fan]

Our leaders are shaking in their shoes at the threat of ticking off Iran and escalating the situation even further. The fact that there have been 150 plus attacks on our troops since October already tells you the situation has escalated. It also indicates that the bad actors are doing the escalation. I'm just saying.

Personally I like leaders who are thoughtful and who think things through which some (you) perceive as weakness.
Just as dangerous as those hair trigger types like Graham and Cotton plus moronic football coach masquerading as a Senator from Alabama and, of course, weak kneed tough talker Orange Fatso.

You, of course, do recall that we lost a few soldiers at an air base in Iraq after we whacked Soliemani a few years back to a missile strike.

Your missing my point. The bad actors have attacked our forces over 150 times since October. I think the fear that defending those forces = escalating is a ship that has already sailed. It now has taken the loss of 3 soldiers to light a fire under under our leaders to do the thing they should have done 4 months ago. They hemmed and hawed because after all... we don't want to get the Iranians upset with us.

No. I see your point and disagree with it. I simply reminded what happened last time we though we were acting tough and got the same outcome

You can't the past. You can learn from your mistakes and do your best not to repeat them.

Send all US ships the long way around. Welcome to capitalism. That's move #1.

[old salt]

Katib Hezbollah says they're stopping their attacks on US forces, in deference to the Iraqi govt.
OK -- let's see if they stop. If they do, Iraq won't ask us to leave.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-ea ... 024-01-30/

Meanwhile. Iran needs to feel some pain. I recommend an attack on their spy ship(s) in the Red Sea & Gulf of Aden which are providing targeting info for the Houthis. That does not necessarily mean sinking the ships, rather disabling them & forcing them back to their homeports in Iran.

[cradleandshoot]

Katib Hezbollah says they're stopping their attacks on US forces, in deference to the Iraqi govt.
OK -- let's see if they stop. If they do, Iraq won't ask us to leave.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-ea ... 024-01-30/

Meanwhile. Iran needs to feel some pain. I recommend an attack on their spy ship(s) in the Red Sea & Gulf of Aden which are providing targeting info for the Houthis. That does not necessarily mean sinking the ships, rather disabling them & forcing them back to their homeports in Iran.

+1 that sounds like the perfect response. Not an act of war but it sends a strong message.

[old salt]

Katib Hezbollah says they're stopping their attacks on US forces, in deference to the Iraqi govt.
OK -- let's see if they stop. If they do, Iraq won't ask us to leave.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-ea ... 024-01-30/

Meanwhile. Iran needs to feel some pain. I recommend an attack on their spy ship(s) in the Red Sea & Gulf of Aden which are providing targeting info for the Houthis. That does not necessarily mean sinking the ships, rather disabling them & forcing them back to their homeports in Iran.

+1 that sounds like the perfect response. Not an act of war but it sends a strong message.

https://www.iranintl.com/en/202311227450
https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/06/politics ... index.html
https://electronica-submarina.com/mines ... aval-mine/

[youthathletics]

Katib Hezbollah says they're stopping their attacks on US forces, in deference to the Iraqi govt.
OK -- let's see if they stop. If they do, Iraq won't ask us to leave.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-ea ... 024-01-30/

Meanwhile. Iran needs to feel some pain. I recommend an attack on their spy ship(s) in the Red Sea & Gulf of Aden which are providing targeting info for the Houthis. That does not necessarily mean sinking the ships, rather disabling them & forcing them back to their homeports in Iran.

+1 that sounds like the perfect response. Not an act of war but it sends a strong message.

https://www.iranintl.com/en/202311227450
https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/06/politics ... index.html
https://electronica-submarina.com/mines ... aval-mine/

Maybe that’s what Biden was focusing on: https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Politics/bid ... =106773572

[cradleandshoot]

Why would Joe Biden fess up and state publicly he has decided how to retaliate for the drone attack? IMO that is a question that is answered in a typical very vague manner. I would have thought the answer would be something along the line of " we are still evaluating and gathering information." I'm hoping there is some method to the madness going on here. It does appear the Iranians are sitting on pins and needles wondering when the next shoe will drop. This could be a stroke of genius on Bidens part.

[tech37]

Why would Joe Biden fess up and state publicly he has decided how to retaliate for the drone attack? IMO that is a question that is answered in a typical very vague manner. I would have thought the answer would be something along the line of " we are still evaluating and gathering information." I'm hoping there is some method to the madness going on here. It does appear the Iranians are sitting on pins and needles wondering when the next shoe will drop. This could be a stroke of genius on Bidens part.

"We are not seeking a conflict with the regime in the military way," Kirby continued. "We're not looking to escalate here. This attack over the weekend was escalatory, make no mistake about it. And it requires a response." – Kirby

May be a financial strike against Iran only?

[cradleandshoot]

Why would Joe Biden fess up and state publicly he has decided how to retaliate for the drone attack? IMO that is a question that is answered in a typical very vague manner. I would have thought the answer would be something along the line of " we are still evaluating and gathering information." I'm hoping there is some method to the madness going on here. It does appear the Iranians are sitting on pins and needles wondering when the next shoe will drop. This could be a stroke of genius on Bidens part.

"We are not seeking a conflict with the regime in the military way," Kirby continued. "We're not looking to escalate here. This attack over the weekend was escalatory, make no mistake about it. And it requires a response." – Kirby

May be a financial strike against Iran only?

I wasn't aware of our ability to initiate a financial strike. I was under the impression we gave Iran all those billions we were holding.

[tech37]

Why would Joe Biden fess up and state publicly he has decided how to retaliate for the drone attack? IMO that is a question that is answered in a typical very vague manner. I would have thought the answer would be something along the line of " we are still evaluating and gathering information." I'm hoping there is some method to the madness going on here. It does appear the Iranians are sitting on pins and needles wondering when the next shoe will drop. This could be a stroke of genius on Bidens part.

"We are not seeking a conflict with the regime in the military way," Kirby continued. "We're not looking to escalate here. This attack over the weekend was escalatory, make no mistake about it. And it requires a response." – Kirby

May be a financial strike against Iran only?

I wasn't aware of our ability to initiate a financial strike. I was under the impression we gave Iran all those billions we were holding.

Why so cynical C&S?

[cradleandshoot]

Why would Joe Biden fess up and state publicly he has decided how to retaliate for the drone attack? IMO that is a question that is answered in a typical very vague manner. I would have thought the answer would be something along the line of " we are still evaluating and gathering information." I'm hoping there is some method to the madness going on here. It does appear the Iranians are sitting on pins and needles wondering when the next shoe will drop. This could be a stroke of genius on Bidens part.

"We are not seeking a conflict with the regime in the military way," Kirby continued. "We're not looking to escalate here. This attack over the weekend was escalatory, make no mistake about it. And it requires a response." – Kirby

May be a financial strike against Iran only?

I wasn't aware of our ability to initiate a financial strike. I was under the impression we gave Iran all those billions we were holding.

Why so cynical C&S?

Because you can't get blood from a stone. Well, that is what I have heard.

I am interested to find out what his plan is.

[tech37]

Why would Joe Biden fess up and state publicly he has decided how to retaliate for the drone attack? IMO that is a question that is answered in a typical very vague manner. I would have thought the answer would be something along the line of " we are still evaluating and gathering information." I'm hoping there is some method to the madness going on here. It does appear the Iranians are sitting on pins and needles wondering when the next shoe will drop. This could be a stroke of genius on Bidens part.

"We are not seeking a conflict with the regime in the military way," Kirby continued. "We're not looking to escalate here. This attack over the weekend was escalatory, make no mistake about it. And it requires a response." – Kirby

May be a financial strike against Iran only?

I wasn't aware of our ability to initiate a financial strike. I was under the impression we gave Iran all those billions we were holding.

Why so cynical C&S?

Because you can't get blood from a stone. Well, that is what I have heard.

I am interested to find out what his plan is.

Hasn't the Iran oil market become robust (relatively speaking) since Biden Admin took over? Sanction the sh!t out of them?

[Kismet]

Why would Joe Biden fess up and state publicly he has decided how to retaliate for the drone attack? IMO that is a question that is answered in a typical very vague manner. I would have thought the answer would be something along the line of " we are still evaluating and gathering information." I'm hoping there is some method to the madness going on here. It does appear the Iranians are sitting on pins and needles wondering when the next shoe will drop. This could be a stroke of genius on Bidens part.

"We are not seeking a conflict with the regime in the military way," Kirby continued. "We're not looking to escalate here. This attack over the weekend was escalatory, make no mistake about it. And it requires a response." – Kirby

May be a financial strike against Iran only?

I wasn't aware of our ability to initiate a financial strike. I was under the impression we gave Iran all those billions we were holding.

Why so cynical C&S?

Because you can't get blood from a stone. Well, that is what I have heard.

I am interested to find out what his plan is.

You'll find out soon enough.

Houthis tried again against USN Destroyer last night - USS Gravely- they lost again.

[cradleandshoot]

Why would Joe Biden fess up and state publicly he has decided how to retaliate for the drone attack? IMO that is a question that is answered in a typical very vague manner. I would have thought the answer would be something along the line of " we are still evaluating and gathering information." I'm hoping there is some method to the madness going on here. It does appear the Iranians are sitting on pins and needles wondering when the next shoe will drop. This could be a stroke of genius on Bidens part.

"We are not seeking a conflict with the regime in the military way," Kirby continued. "We're not looking to escalate here. This attack over the weekend was escalatory, make no mistake about it. And it requires a response." – Kirby

May be a financial strike against Iran only?

I wasn't aware of our ability to initiate a financial strike. I was under the impression we gave Iran all those billions we were holding.

Why so cynical C&S?

Because you can't get blood from a stone. Well, that is what I have heard.

I am interested to find out what his plan is.

Hasn't the Iran oil market become robust (relatively speaking) since Biden Admin took over? Sanction the sh!t out of them?

That certainly would be thinking outside of the box. It also gives the Iranian government something else to think about.

[Farfromgeneva]

Sanctioning Iran is out of the box thinking?

Whoa boy.

[cradleandshoot]

Sanctioning Iran is out of the box thinking?

Whoa boy.

There is a very long track record of sanctions having little to no influence on the leadership. The pain and suffering from sanctions normally is passed on to the peasants. Think North Korea if you would like an example. I said it is out of the box thinking in the context of what Joe might do. Think about it. If you have decided on a course of action do you declare to the world you have decided on a course of action. If you decided on a course of action on a very lucrative business deal do you announce it to any competitors or do you keep it under the hat?

[MDlaxfan76]

Sanctioning Iran is out of the box thinking?

Whoa boy.

There is a very long track record of sanctions having little to no influence on the leadership. The pain and suffering from sanctions normally is passed on to the peasants. Think North Korea if you would like an example. I said it is out of the box thinking in the context of what Joe might do. Think about it. If you have decided on a course of action do you declare to the world you have decided on a course of action. If you decided on a course of action on a very lucrative business deal do you announce it to any competitors or do you keep it under the hat?

It's also pretty clear that energy sanctions have little impact, given that energy markets are global and without universal compliance they don't bite the sanctioned very much, just put some friction into the system that raises energy costs for all.

They do make for some domestic PR...

Sanctioning individuals and their freedom of movement and personal investment is at least targeted to those who are decision makers.

[cradleandshoot]

Sanctioning Iran is out of the box thinking?

Whoa boy.

There is a very long track record of sanctions having little to no influence on the leadership. The pain and suffering from sanctions normally is passed on to the peasants. Think North Korea if you would like an example. I said it is out of the box thinking in the context of what Joe might do. Think about it. If you have decided on a course of action do you declare to the world you have decided on a course of action. If you decided on a course of action on a very lucrative business deal do you announce it to any competitors or do you keep it under the hat?

It's also pretty clear that energy sanctions have little impact, given that energy markets are global and without universal compliance they don't bite the sanctioned very much, just put some friction into the system that raises energy costs for all.

They do make for some domestic PR...

Sanctioning individuals and their freedom of movement and personal investment is at least targeted to those who are decision makers.

That makes it even more intriguing what President Biden has chosen to do.

[youthathletics]

@CENTCOM
·
3h
Jan. 31 at approximately 3:30 p.m. (Sanaa time), USCENTCOM forces struck and destroyed a Houthi surface-to-air missile prepared to launch. U.S. forces identified the missile in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen and determined that it presented an imminent threat to U.S. aircraft.

[cradleandshoot]

Actually, what I'd want to know is how exactly this drone particular attack evaded air defense of the facility and then include any locations where drones are located or manufactured in any retaliatory strike regardless of whether they are inside Iran or not.

Force protection is job #1 for our military in this region. Was this attack a lucky hit or something bigger than that. If bigger, then that capability must be targeting in any response.

I said this in another thread. We have to be on point 100% of the time every damn day. The bad actors only have to get lucky once. Except was it luck or did they exploit a weakness our people didn't see?

Yep. When you look at the number of attacks on US forces ashore & ships in the ME, it's remarkable that only 1 got through sufficiently to cause 3 deaths, & that due to confusion with a returning US drone. Overall, if accurate, that speaks well for our overall force protection measures & the effectiveness of our ISR & air defenses. I'm particularly impressed with the performance of the Navy's Aegis system compared to what we lived with in my day trying to counter the Soviet anti-ship cruise missile threat. We would have expected hits & losses by this point.

This is strictly a comment on the effectiveness of our air defense systems & their integration into our force protection measures.
It is not a comment on the effectiveness of our strategy of deterrence in the ME against Iran & proxies...which has failed.

My theory OS is when one of our destroyers is positioned correctly it will not be one missile being fired. I believe they will launch many missiles and drones in a coordinated attempt to overwhelm the Aegis defense systems. 40 or 50 threats all approaching at the same time from different directions and different trajectories would be real test for defense radar. I don't know how many incoming threats can realistically be engaged simultaneously. I also don't know if the bad actors have the ability to launch such an attack. I wouldn't underestimate their capabilities. That would be a huge feather in their caps if they could take out an Aegis destroyer. They only have to get lucky once. FTR what about that Phalanx guns? What effective range can they engage targets?

Force protection is paramount. If you don't think the US Navy has simulated your threat you're likely mistaken. What you fail to mention is that US Navy ships have multiple layered protection from other ships with AEGIS capability plus overhead assets from both carrier-based and USAF land-based assets. Report on CBS Evening News last night overview of Naval Operations Center in Bahrain is instructive as to their capabilities.

https://cnreurafcent.cnic.navy.mil/Inst ... A-Bahrain/

That said, just got a lesson in force protection in Jordan on a smaller scale where a confluence of actions adversely affected air defense operations and a drone got through said defense. Not technically a bad guy escalation per se' but military fatalities are escalatory from our POV

Phalanx is uber-short range last line of defense

https://www.navy.mil/Resources/Fact-Fil ... stem-ciws/

That Phalanx gun is the weapon system that just the other day shot down an anti ship missile that was missed by that high tech state of the art multi layered defense system. Uber short range yet highly effective. CIWS sure is due some credit.

[Kismet]

Actually, what I'd want to know is how exactly this drone particular attack evaded air defense of the facility and then include any locations where drones are located or manufactured in any retaliatory strike regardless of whether they are inside Iran or not.

Force protection is job #1 for our military in this region. Was this attack a lucky hit or something bigger than that. If bigger, then that capability must be targeting in any response.

I said this in another thread. We have to be on point 100% of the time every damn day. The bad actors only have to get lucky once. Except was it luck or did they exploit a weakness our people didn't see?

Yep. When you look at the number of attacks on US forces ashore & ships in the ME, it's remarkable that only 1 got through sufficiently to cause 3 deaths, & that due to confusion with a returning US drone. Overall, if accurate, that speaks well for our overall force protection measures & the effectiveness of our ISR & air defenses. I'm particularly impressed with the performance of the Navy's Aegis system compared to what we lived with in my day trying to counter the Soviet anti-ship cruise missile threat. We would have expected hits & losses by this point.

This is strictly a comment on the effectiveness of our air defense systems & their integration into our force protection measures.
It is not a comment on the effectiveness of our strategy of deterrence in the ME against Iran & proxies...which has failed.

My theory OS is when one of our destroyers is positioned correctly it will not be one missile being fired. I believe they will launch many missiles and drones in a coordinated attempt to overwhelm the Aegis defense systems. 40 or 50 threats all approaching at the same time from different directions and different trajectories would be real test for defense radar. I don't know how many incoming threats can realistically be engaged simultaneously. I also don't know if the bad actors have the ability to launch such an attack. I wouldn't underestimate their capabilities. That would be a huge feather in their caps if they could take out an Aegis destroyer. They only have to get lucky once. FTR what about that Phalanx guns? What effective range can they engage targets?

Force protection is paramount. If you don't think the US Navy has simulated your threat you're likely mistaken. What you fail to mention is that US Navy ships have multiple layered protection from other ships with AEGIS capability plus overhead assets from both carrier-based and USAF land-based assets. Report on CBS Evening News last night overview of Naval Operations Center in Bahrain is instructive as to their capabilities.

https://cnreurafcent.cnic.navy.mil/Inst ... A-Bahrain/

That said, just got a lesson in force protection in Jordan on a smaller scale where a confluence of actions adversely affected air defense operations and a drone got through said defense. Not technically a bad guy escalation per se' but military fatalities are escalatory from our POV

Phalanx is uber-short range last line of defense

https://www.navy.mil/Resources/Fact-Fil ... stem-ciws/

That Phalanx gun is the weapon system that just the other day shot down an anti ship missile that was missed by that high tech state of the art multi layered defense system. Uber short range yet highly effective. CIWS sure is due some credit.

This is what one would expect from a multi-layered defense system.