All things CoronaVirus

[CU88]

Yesterday Joke Show in the Rose Garden:

Reporter: So when you promised 4 million tests 7 weeks ago, you were just talking about tests being sent out, not completed?

PENCE: "Precisely correct"


So I didn’t have to complete any tests to get credit?

Now you tell me!

r's are so stupid...

[youthathletics]

I don't know how you boys live in blue states.

Red states opening up, as they should. I get NY, NJ, and IL, but the rest seem perfectly fine. Not entirely sure what the Democrat fascination is with totalitarian control of people and business and their demand that everyone stay home and inside. Get outside and breathe real oxygen, develop your immune system. The only expert of you is you, not some disassociated politician who is angling for votes, money, and power.

Anyway, me too, I am also almost done with the board, not because I have not learned (I have!), but because my company is back to work. We are expecting to be back on the road (traveling) no later than May 11th, but mostly re-opened May 4th, Monday baby!

American capitalism is the cure for all of your ailments.

Back to work!!!!

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/27/politics ... index.html

Good for you PB. I can't wait to get back to work as well. I never realized i was such a lightening rod for the hate mongers among us.

It's everlastingly interesting to see people who claim to be empathetic to the common man, to actually do everything in their power to deny that man his right to work. And don't believe the bs about health; they want the economy to seize, full stop.

The country is opening back up regardless how much they scream. New York City will be (unfortunately) last, but that's the nature of a densely packed city that relies mostly on public transportation.

On a very serious note, I can not imagine NYC escaping this pandemic without a massive hit to real estate values.

https://ny.curbed.com/2020/3/10/2117341 ... s-covid-19

From a Bronx ER Dr.

Third, inordinate fear misguides the public response. While COVID-19 is serious, fear of it is being over-amplified. The public needs to understand that the vast majority of infected people do quite well.

Finally, COVID-19 is more prevalent than we think. Many New Yorkers already have the COVID-19 infection, whether they are aware of it or not. As of today, over 43 percent of those tested are positive in The Bronx. We are developing a significant degree of natural herd immunity. Distancing works, but I am skeptical that it is playing as predominant a role as many think

CORONAVIRUS REALITY CHECK

[RedFromMI]

From a Bronx ER Dr.

Third, inordinate fear misguides the public response. While COVID-19 is serious, fear of it is being over-amplified. The public needs to understand that the vast majority of infected people do quite well.

Finally, COVID-19 is more prevalent than we think. Many New Yorkers already have the COVID-19 infection, whether they are aware of it or not. As of today, over 43 percent of those tested are positive in The Bronx. We are developing a significant degree of natural herd immunity. Distancing works, but I am skeptical that it is playing as predominant a role as many think

CORONAVIRUS REALITY CHECK

Herd immunity requires a minimum of about 65%, or even more depending on how "virulent" a particular bacteria/virus is. Since COVID-19 is particularly easy to spread, that number is higher.

43 percent of those tested positive does not mean 43 percent of the population in the Bronx actually has experienced COVID-19, unless you are careful to make sure you select a representative sampling of the population. And since he is referring to testing for infection that number may be limited if testing is still limited (it is).

At BEST where he is in the Bronx they may be halfway to herd immunity. Latest testing numbers released by the governor for antibody tests put the NYC number at about 24%.

I have no idea where he comes up with SD is not the main reason it has not been worse. SD is quite well known within the epidemiology community.

And of course, the NY Post is a Murdoch property - so you might want to consider the editorial motives in finding this particular ER doc. (BTW, ER docs don't have any specialized epidemiological training compared to pretty much all other kinds of physicians). Unless he has a degree in public health...(which I can find no evidence of).

[Typical Lax Dad]

From a Bronx ER Dr.

Third, inordinate fear misguides the public response. While COVID-19 is serious, fear of it is being over-amplified. The public needs to understand that the vast majority of infected people do quite well.

Finally, COVID-19 is more prevalent than we think. Many New Yorkers already have the COVID-19 infection, whether they are aware of it or not. As of today, over 43 percent of those tested are positive in The Bronx. We are developing a significant degree of natural herd immunity. Distancing works, but I am skeptical that it is playing as predominant a role as many think

CORONAVIRUS REALITY CHECK

Herd immunity requires a minimum of about 65%, or even more depending on how "virulent" a particular bacteria/virus is. Since COVID-19 is particularly easy to spread, that number is higher.

43 percent of those tested positive does not mean 43 percent of the population in the Bronx actually has experienced COVID-19, unless you are careful to make sure you select a representative sampling of the population. And since he is referring to testing for infection that number may be limited if testing is still limited (it is).

At BEST where he is in the Bronx they may be halfway to herd immunity. Latest testing numbers released by the governor for antibody tests put the NYC number at about 24%.

I have no idea where he comes up with SD is not the main reason it has not been worse. SD is quite well known within the epidemiology community.

And of course, the NY Post is a Murdoch property - so you might want to consider the editorial motives in finding this particular ER doc. (BTW, ER docs don't have any specialized epidemiological training compared to pretty much all other kinds of physicians). Unless he has a degree in public health...(which I can find no evidence of).

I just had a similar conversation with a friend about editorials (wsj in this case)... just because it’s a “doctor” it doesn’t mean expert. It is a device used to basically mislead people.

[RedFromMI]

From a Bronx ER Dr.

Third, inordinate fear misguides the public response. While COVID-19 is serious, fear of it is being over-amplified. The public needs to understand that the vast majority of infected people do quite well.

Finally, COVID-19 is more prevalent than we think. Many New Yorkers already have the COVID-19 infection, whether they are aware of it or not. As of today, over 43 percent of those tested are positive in The Bronx. We are developing a significant degree of natural herd immunity. Distancing works, but I am skeptical that it is playing as predominant a role as many think

CORONAVIRUS REALITY CHECK

Herd immunity requires a minimum of about 65%, or even more depending on how "virulent" a particular bacteria/virus is. Since COVID-19 is particularly easy to spread, that number is higher.

43 percent of those tested positive does not mean 43 percent of the population in the Bronx actually has experienced COVID-19, unless you are careful to make sure you select a representative sampling of the population. And since he is referring to testing for infection that number may be limited if testing is still limited (it is).

At BEST where he is in the Bronx they may be halfway to herd immunity. Latest testing numbers released by the governor for antibody tests put the NYC number at about 24%.

I have no idea where he comes up with SD is not the main reason it has not been worse. SD is quite well known within the epidemiology community.

And of course, the NY Post is a Murdoch property - so you might want to consider the editorial motives in finding this particular ER doc. (BTW, ER docs don't have any specialized epidemiological training compared to pretty much all other kinds of physicians). Unless he has a degree in public health...(which I can find no evidence of).

I just had a similar conversation with a friend about editorials (wsj in this case)... just be it’s a “doctor” it doesn’t mean expert. It is a device used to basically mislead people.

I also had a wife (late sadly) who had a degree in health education, and have a daughter with a DO+MPH degree. Although her MPH specialty was in health promotions not epidemiology, she did take courses in it, and she has never said we are ready to open up at all.

Of course WSJ and NY Post have the same owners with editorial interest in pushing a particular point of view. Maybe not quite as extreme as Fox News evening shows, but still need to be consistent with the "party" line.

If you want a good list of doctors/epidemiologists/other experts on COVID-19 on Twitter, Josh Marshall (editor/owner TalkingPointsMemo) has made a listing of experts and their posts:

https://twitter.com/i/lists/1233998285779632128

Good resource to follow.

[kramerica.inc]

Was listening to a report on the possibility or perhaps likelihood of college students choosing to not return to class next fall or take a year off until things settle down. I’m thinking that if I were an incoming freshman or sophomore I would be inclined to take a year off. Tough decisions and tough times for colleges, especially those that are already struggling.

If a college was going to try to charge you full boat for an online or condensed version of classes, (especially a methodology that they haven't mastered yet) why waste your money?

My wife is a professor at the local university. As one of the younger, more technology savvy professors in the department, she is literally responsible for posting syllabi and setting up all the other professor's blackboards and portals. Half of the professors have no clue what they are doing. THey all want to run classes like normal, via emails.

My aunt is a long tenured PHD at a well-respected university in the NE. Considered one of the best professors on campus. Been a department chair, won a bunch of awards blah blah blah. She confided in me last week that she has no clue what shes doing with the online version of her class and cant even use the online portal. She literally has some other professor doing her student interactions for her.

I can guarantee this bs is happening everywhere.

If our kids were entering the college market this fall, I'd certainly recommend they take a year off or suggest they consider a school that already has a robust online presence to start their college career. You can always transfer in a year or two to graduate.

[old salt]

Was listening to a report on the possibility or perhaps likelihood of college students choosing to not return to class next fall or take a year off until things settle down. I’m thinking that if I were an incoming freshman or sophomore I would be inclined to take a year off. Tough decisions and tough times for colleges, especially those that are already struggling.

If a college was going to try to charge you full boat for an online or condensed version of classes, (especially a methodology that they haven't mastered yet) why waste your money?

My wife is a professor at the local university. As one of the younger, more technology savvy professors in the department, she is literally responsible for posting syllabi and setting up all the other professor's blackboards and portals. Half of the professors have no clue what they are doing. THey all want to run classes like normal, via emails.

My aunt is a long tenured PHD at a well-respected university in the NE. Considered one of the best professors on campus. Been a department chair, won a bunch of awards blah blah blah. She confided in me last week that she has no clue what shes doing with the online version of her class and cant even use the online portal. She literally has some other professor doing her student interactions for her.

I can guarantee this bs is happening everywhere.

If our kids were entering the college market this fall, I'd certainly recommend they take a year off or suggest they consider a school that already has a robust online presence to start their college career. You can always transfer in a year or two to graduate.

How are MD's community colleges doing with their online courses ?
Could be a lot of bang for the bucks for 1 year.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Was listening to a report on the possibility or perhaps likelihood of college students choosing to not return to class next fall or take a year off until things settle down. I’m thinking that if I were an incoming freshman or sophomore I would be inclined to take a year off. Tough decisions and tough times for colleges, especially those that are already struggling.

If a college was going to try to charge you full boat for an online or condensed version of classes, (especially a methodology that they haven't mastered yet) why waste your money?

My wife is a professor at the local university. As one of the younger, more technology savvy professors in the department, she is literally responsible for posting syllabi and setting up all the other professor's blackboards and portals. Half of the professors have no clue what they are doing. THey all want to run classes like normal, via emails.

My aunt is a long tenured PHD at a well-respected university in the NE. Considered one of the best professors on campus. Been a department chair, won a bunch of awards blah blah blah. She confided in me last week that she has no clue what shes doing with the online version of her class and cant even use the online portal. She literally has some other professor doing her student interactions for her.

I can guarantee this bs is happening everywhere.

If our kids were entering the college market this fall, I'd certainly recommend they take a year off or suggest they consider a school that already has a robust online presence to start their college career. You can always transfer in a year or two to graduate.

My wife has not had those issues but she does not like teaching online and the students don’t like it either. My daughter is a student at a small NE college and she doesn’t like it either. A friend is also an Adjunct professor at Baltimore private. She doesn’t like the online teaching experience either. Parents, faculty and students all seem to be willing to pay and be paid for the on campus experience.

[youthathletics]

Worth a read while on the crapper....
https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/coronav ... h-leibsohn

[Peter Brown]

I don't know how you boys live in blue states.

Red states opening up, as they should. I get NY, NJ, and IL, but the rest seem perfectly fine. Not entirely sure what the Democrat fascination is with totalitarian control of people and business and their demand that everyone stay home and inside. Get outside and breathe real oxygen, develop your immune system. The only expert of you is you, not some disassociated politician who is angling for votes, money, and power.

Anyway, me too, I am also almost done with the board, not because I have not learned (I have!), but because my company is back to work. We are expecting to be back on the road (traveling) no later than May 11th, but mostly re-opened May 4th, Monday baby!

American capitalism is the cure for all of your ailments.

Back to work!!!!

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/27/politics ... index.html

Good for you PB. I can't wait to get back to work as well. I never realized i was such a lightening rod for the hate mongers among us.

It's everlastingly interesting to see people who claim to be empathetic to the common man, to actually do everything in their power to deny that man his right to work. And don't believe the bs about health; they want the economy to seize, full stop.

The country is opening back up regardless how much they scream. New York City will be (unfortunately) last, but that's the nature of a densely packed city that relies mostly on public transportation.

On a very serious note, I can not imagine NYC escaping this pandemic without a massive hit to real estate values.

https://ny.curbed.com/2020/3/10/2117341 ... s-covid-19

From a Bronx ER Dr.

Third, inordinate fear misguides the public response. While COVID-19 is serious, fear of it is being over-amplified. The public needs to understand that the vast majority of infected people do quite well.

Finally, COVID-19 is more prevalent than we think. Many New Yorkers already have the COVID-19 infection, whether they are aware of it or not. As of today, over 43 percent of those tested are positive in The Bronx. We are developing a significant degree of natural herd immunity. Distancing works, but I am skeptical that it is playing as predominant a role as many think

CORONAVIRUS REALITY CHECK

This doctor will be silenced soon. One can NOT speak truth.

[SCLaxAttack]

Worth a read while on the crapper....
https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/coronav ... h-leibsohn

And if you printed it out rather than taking your phone in with you you could use the paper to wipe yourself - that’s about all that article’s worth.

Almost from the start the author tells you to suspend the importance of population density between the states while evaluating each state’s effectiveness. They want you to dismiss the importance of 20.3M people living in 3450 square miles in the NY metro area while the highest density of people in FL is metro Miami - ~1/3 the people in an area a little under twice as big. (6.2M in 6137 sq.mi.) Oh, the predominance of public transportation in the NY metro area means nothing either.

But FOX is still telling their viewers that Trump was just being sarcastic, too.

[RedFromMI]

From a Bronx ER Dr.

Third, inordinate fear misguides the public response. While COVID-19 is serious, fear of it is being over-amplified. The public needs to understand that the vast majority of infected people do quite well.

Finally, COVID-19 is more prevalent than we think. Many New Yorkers already have the COVID-19 infection, whether they are aware of it or not. As of today, over 43 percent of those tested are positive in The Bronx. We are developing a significant degree of natural herd immunity. Distancing works, but I am skeptical that it is playing as predominant a role as many think

The words I bolded are so ambiguous to be almost meaningless. Are these antibody tests? Live virus tests? Most likely the latter.

Latest citywide result of antibody tests are around 24%. 43% seems too high for that type of test, but if you mean the tests to see if you have an active case of COVID-19 that result is unremarkable because it depends so heavily on exactly who is getting tested.

Oh - herd immunity for a virus so easily transmitted could be well over 80%. Don't let his quote make you think that herd immunity is nearly reached.

[CU88]

Statement from a Mayo Clinic spokesperson:

We made the Vice President and his staff aware of our policy regarding masking. For all additional inquiries please contact his press team.

DEPLORABLE

[Peter Brown]

Worth a read while on the crapper....
https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/coronav ... h-leibsohn

And if you printed it out rather than taking your phone in with you you could use the paper to wipe yourself - that’s about all that article’s worth.

Almost from the start the author tells you to suspend the importance of population density between the states while evaluating each state’s effectiveness. They want you to dismiss the importance of 20.3M people living in 3450 square miles in the NY metro area while the highest density of people in FL is metro Miami - ~1/3 the people in an area a little under twice as big. (6.2M in 6137 sq.mi.) Oh, the predominance of public transportation in the NY metro area means nothing either.

But FOX is still telling their viewers that Trump was just being sarcastic, too.

And yet you leave out the most inconvenient facts: the virus attacks the elderly and POC far more than other groups, and over 20 percent of Florida (17% NY) is over 65 and POC represent 43%(37% in NY). So even with density issues removed, you'd expect Florida to do much worse than it has. We only have 2% of all Covid deaths in the US while NY has over 40%.

And yet, all we heard was Cuomo good man and DeSantis bad man. I can't figure out why; wrestling with the reasoning.

[RedFromMI]

Worth a read while on the crapper....
https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/coronav ... h-leibsohn

And if you printed it out rather than taking your phone in with you you could use the paper to wipe yourself - that’s about all that article’s worth.

Almost from the start the author tells you to suspend the importance of population density between the states while evaluating each state’s effectiveness. They want you to dismiss the importance of 20.3M people living in 3450 square miles in the NY metro area while the highest density of people in FL is metro Miami - ~1/3 the people in an area a little under twice as big. (6.2M in 6137 sq.mi.) Oh, the predominance of public transportation in the NY metro area means nothing either.

But FOX is still telling their viewers that Trump was just being sarcastic, too.

And yet you leave out the most inconvenient facts: the virus attacks the elderly and POC far more than other groups, and over 20 percent of Florida (17% NY) is over 65 and POC represent 43%(37% in NY). So even with density issues removed, you'd expect Florida to do much worse than it has. We only have 2% of all Covid deaths in the US while NY has over 40%.

And yet, all we heard was Cuomo good man and DeSantis bad man. I can't figure out why; wrestling with the reasoning.

Some reasons why:
1. Most of the prevention of spread in Florida was due to mayors and county officials in S. Florida making the early calls to begin to shut things down (and I was there in Palm Beach county when it first started during part of my school's Spring Break week visiting family). DeSantis sat on his hands during that time.
2. Cuomo while acting later than he should (and he is quite willing to admit it) has led the state part of the effort to stem the tide in the worst hit region of the country. When he holds his press conferences he is perfectly willing to talk at length about what went on/is going on/needs to happen. DeSantis not so much.
3. DeSantis does not actually seem to understand the problem - or at least does not show it. Seems more concerned with toeing the Trumpian line about reopening (or is that the PB line) than being a true leader.
4. Spring Break parties - like Mardi Gras - look like prime spreader activities. DeSantis sat on his hands (as did a lot of local officials due to the thoughts of lost business including some in S. Florida).

DeSantis got a better deal to start with due to luck. But he does not make one confident he knows what he is doing (or is even capable of understanding his limitations).

[old salt]

Worth a read while on the crapper....
https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/coronav ... h-leibsohn

And if you printed it out rather than taking your phone in with you you could use the paper to wipe yourself - that’s about all that article’s worth.

Almost from the start the author tells you to suspend the importance of population density between the states while evaluating each state’s effectiveness. They want you to dismiss the importance of 20.3M people living in 3450 square miles in the NY metro area while the highest density of people in FL is metro Miami - ~1/3 the people in an area a little under twice as big. (6.2M in 6137 sq.mi.) Oh, the predominance of public transportation in the NY metro area means nothing either.

But FOX is still telling their viewers that Trump was just being sarcastic, too.

And yet you leave out the most inconvenient facts: the virus attacks the elderly and POC far more than other groups, and over 20 percent of Florida (17% NY) is over 65 and POC represent 43%(37% in NY). So even with density issues removed, you'd expect Florida to do much worse than it has. We only have 2% of all Covid deaths in the US while NY has over 40%.

And yet, all we heard was Cuomo good man and DeSantis bad man. I can't figure out why; wrestling with the reasoning.

Some reasons why:
1. Most of the prevention of spread in Florida was due to mayors and county officials in S. Florida making the early calls to begin to shut things down (and I was there in Palm Beach county when it first started during part of my school's Spring Break week visiting family). DeSantis sat on his hands during that time.
2. Cuomo while acting later than he should (and he is quite willing to admit it) has led the state part of the effort to stem the tide in the worst hit region of the country. When he holds his press conferences he is perfectly willing to talk at length about what went on/is going on/needs to happen. DeSantis not so much.
3. DeSantis does not actually seem to understand the problem - or at least does not show it. Seems more concerned with toeing the Trumpian line about reopening (or is that the PB line) than being a true leader.
4. Spring Break parties - like Mardi Gras - look like prime spreader activities. DeSantis sat on his hands (as did a lot of local officials due to the thoughts of lost business including some in S. Florida).

DeSantis got a better deal to start with due to luck. But he does not make one confident he knows what he is doing (or is even capable of understanding his limitations).

How do you explain this away ?

What DeSantis did do was take a much more vertical approach to the virus than others, like Cuomo. In early March, DeSantis put out targeted and preventative messaging to his elder population, advising them to stay at home. In places like The Villages (home to over 125,000 retirees), DeSantis implemented golf-cart drive-through coronavirus testing. He deployed the National Guard to help institute testing in the state’s nursing homes where, unlike New York, older COVID-19 patients were not sent.   

Early on, DeSantis suspended visitation and ordered staff screening at long-term care facilities.  He also dispatched millions of masks and gloves and hundreds of thousands of face shields and gowns, also known as personal protective equipment, to nursing homes and other centers caring for the elderly. These actions, among others, led Florida to a 93 percent better per capita long-term care facility death rate than New York.   

[DocBarrister]

Results from coronavirus antibody tests have started to trickle in, and they bolster the consensus among disease experts that the virus is significantly more lethal than seasonal flu and has seeded the most disruptive pandemic in the last century.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/a ... story.html

DocBarrister

[Peter Brown]

Worth a read while on the crapper....
https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/coronav ... h-leibsohn

And if you printed it out rather than taking your phone in with you you could use the paper to wipe yourself - that’s about all that article’s worth.

Almost from the start the author tells you to suspend the importance of population density between the states while evaluating each state’s effectiveness. They want you to dismiss the importance of 20.3M people living in 3450 square miles in the NY metro area while the highest density of people in FL is metro Miami - ~1/3 the people in an area a little under twice as big. (6.2M in 6137 sq.mi.) Oh, the predominance of public transportation in the NY metro area means nothing either.

But FOX is still telling their viewers that Trump was just being sarcastic, too.

And yet you leave out the most inconvenient facts: the virus attacks the elderly and POC far more than other groups, and over 20 percent of Florida (17% NY) is over 65 and POC represent 43%(37% in NY). So even with density issues removed, you'd expect Florida to do much worse than it has. We only have 2% of all Covid deaths in the US while NY has over 40%.

And yet, all we heard was Cuomo good man and DeSantis bad man. I can't figure out why; wrestling with the reasoning.

Some reasons why:
1. Most of the prevention of spread in Florida was due to mayors and county officials in S. Florida making the early calls to begin to shut things down (and I was there in Palm Beach county when it first started during part of my school's Spring Break week visiting family). DeSantis sat on his hands during that time.
2. Cuomo while acting later than he should (and he is quite willing to admit it) has led the state part of the effort to stem the tide in the worst hit region of the country. When he holds his press conferences he is perfectly willing to talk at length about what went on/is going on/needs to happen. DeSantis not so much.
3. DeSantis does not actually seem to understand the problem - or at least does not show it. Seems more concerned with toeing the Trumpian line about reopening (or is that the PB line) than being a true leader.
4. Spring Break parties - like Mardi Gras - look like prime spreader activities. DeSantis sat on his hands (as did a lot of local officials due to the thoughts of lost business including some in S. Florida).

DeSantis got a better deal to start with due to luck. But he does not make one confident he knows what he is doing (or is even capable of understanding his limitations).

When I read this post from Red, I'm actually reminded of this: Notice how the denial is so often the preface to the justification.

'DeSantis is dumb and weak but Cuomo is smart and strong, now let me justify why Cuomo's results are (epically and demonstrably) so much worse'.

[MDlaxfan76]

Easy, NY was hit early and hard and didn't have enough PPE for medical staff in hospitals, much less for anyone else, given the enormous increase in usage.

Florida came much later and received PPE on time. Helped to be a Trumpist on the latter, former was just luck.

That's why those 'missing 6 weeks' of not cranking up PPE production, testing, etc are so important and to have a national distribution system instead of states bidding against one another. We needed far more than we had. Still do.

[kramerica.inc]

Clear as mud: