LaxPower Back-Up Stick

• 25 percent of the team's winning percentage

• 50 percent of its opponents' average winning percentage

• 25 percent of its opponents' opponents' average winning percentage

44WeWantMore wrote: ↑Mon Mar 28, 2022 5:55 pm Where are you getting your laxpower rankings?
I am using: http://college.laxpower2.com/menx/rating01.php

wgdsr wrote: ↑Mon Mar 28, 2022 3:10 pm

drunkmonkey30 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 28, 2022 2:36 pm

DU-fan wrote: ↑Mon Mar 28, 2022 12:24 pm It is interesting that our poll is almost the same as the media poll, with the exception that the media has more love for Notre Dame (15 vs. 20).

I am a bit surprised with the high ranking of Harvard in both polls.

I believe the Ivy league is the top league in front of the ACC an B1G this year. Penn, Princeton, Cornell, and Yale have significant wins and clearly deserve to be in the top 10 in my opinion.

But, Harvard's biggest win is Boston U. They lost to OSU. I don't get why people are ranking them in the top 10. I don't care if a team is 6-1 and they beat NJIT, Fairfield, Michigan, Brown, and Dartmouth. I feel they are a top 15 team, but I think they are floating to the top because people are punishing teams for losing. It will sort itself out when they play Cornell, Penn, Princeton, and Yale to close out the season.

Don't want to pick a fight, and we're all entitled to our own opinion, but.....following that logic, how do you rank ND (2-4 with wins over Michigan and Detroit Mercy; loss to the same Ohio State team+ losses to top 5 teams) above Harvard? or rank them at all for that matter? 6 games left (5 of which are ACC). If they go 4-2, they'd still need to make the ACC tourney final game to be NCAA eligible.

there is no acc tourney this year.

drunkmonkey30 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 9:44 am

wgdsr wrote: ↑Mon Mar 28, 2022 3:10 pm

drunkmonkey30 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 28, 2022 2:36 pm

DU-fan wrote: ↑Mon Mar 28, 2022 12:24 pm It is interesting that our poll is almost the same as the media poll, with the exception that the media has more love for Notre Dame (15 vs. 20).

I am a bit surprised with the high ranking of Harvard in both polls.

I believe the Ivy league is the top league in front of the ACC an B1G this year. Penn, Princeton, Cornell, and Yale have significant wins and clearly deserve to be in the top 10 in my opinion.

But, Harvard's biggest win is Boston U. They lost to OSU. I don't get why people are ranking them in the top 10. I don't care if a team is 6-1 and they beat NJIT, Fairfield, Michigan, Brown, and Dartmouth. I feel they are a top 15 team, but I think they are floating to the top because people are punishing teams for losing. It will sort itself out when they play Cornell, Penn, Princeton, and Yale to close out the season.

Don't want to pick a fight, and we're all entitled to our own opinion, but.....following that logic, how do you rank ND (2-4 with wins over Michigan and Detroit Mercy; loss to the same Ohio State team+ losses to top 5 teams) above Harvard? or rank them at all for that matter? 6 games left (5 of which are ACC). If they go 4-2, they'd still need to make the ACC tourney final game to be NCAA eligible.

there is no acc tourney this year.

Ouch.. didn't realize there is no ACC tourney this year. Guess that's why they have 2 games against both Duke and Syracuse remaining on the schedule. Duke 2x, Syracuse 2x, UNC and Marquette. Going 4-2 is going to be tough. They'd need 2 additional games on the schedule if they manage 3-3 in that stretch.....seem to recall an ACC team adding a late game a few years ago to be NCAA eligible, but 2 would be a stretch (if even allowed to play that many). Would love to see them do it, ND is the only ACC team I don't actively root against.

HGK wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 2:17 pm Notre Dame has lost to the 1, 2 and 3 team in the polls in fairly good games. Also, their Maryland game was closer than any team has played the Terps this year. I am not an ND fan by any means but this “you are what your record is”, IMO is a joke. If they played Michigan’s schedule and then lost to UVA i bet they’d be ranked top 7 or so because they’d be 7-1. I agree their tournament chances are slipping quickly and they have one semi quality win, but to question them being a good team is beyond ridiculous IMO. The polls are to rank the best teams. Not to play selection committee for May. Very different agendas.

10stone5 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 1:48 pm laf / Laxpower has already started up his
Tournament Odds rankings,

ND is way down on that list,

http://college.laxpower2.com/menx/odds01.php

HillsLax wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 3:38 pm I am not sure anyone can say ND is a good team without any quality wins. Playing close might get a participation ribbon, but that does not count for much, except, it seems, in certain polls. They play Syracuse at home this week, so that should/will tell us something about both teams. For what it's worth, Draft Kings has ND at -235 and Cuse at +180.

xxxxxxx wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 4:28 pm BU at 15 in the polls is questionable to me. Wins over UMass and Bucknell, a loss to Harvard, I feel like they are pretty hyped, however, with Navy, Yale and Princeton coming up we will soon find out how real they are.

xxxxxxx wrote: ↑Wed Mar 30, 2022 1:45 pm Does a "good" loss help a team's RPI/Ranking/At Large Chances? By good I mean a close loss to a highly ranked team, obviously it is helping ND in the rankings right now but does it matter at the end? I've always believed a loss is a loss.

CU77 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 30, 2022 2:45 pm "Good" losses definitely help RPI, and especially help SOS (strength of schedule), which is an official NCAA selection criterion (while RPI is not): SOS doesn't take into account whether you won or lost those games at all.

Prior to 2009, SOS was officially the MOST IMPORTANT selection criterion (which is how in 2007 undefeated Cornell, with a win over Duke at Duke, wound up as the #4 seed while Duke was #1). Since 2009, the committee selections and seedings have been IMO defensible, if still arguable (because any outcome is arguable ...).

As the season winds down, where teams will end up on the RPI list becomes important. A full calculation takes a computer, but there is a fairly simple formula for how much a team's RPI will change from its next game.

Suppose Team A is going to play Team B. Define some numbers:

AG = number of games played by A to date (not including the upcoming game with B)
ARPI = A's current RPI
BWPxA = B's current winning percentage, excluding any prior games against A
WAB = 1 if A beats B, 0 if A loses to B

Then the change in A's RPI after playing B is approximately

ΔARPI = [(1/4)WAB + (1/2)BWPxA + (1/8) - ARPI] / (AG+1)

This should be accurate to within +/- 0.002 in most cases.

An additional correction can reduce the error to +/- 0.001 in most cases:

ΔΔARPI = [(1/2)BRPI - (1/8)BWP - (3/16)] / (AG+1)

where

BRPI = B's current RPI
BWP = B's current winning percentage (including any prior games against A)

ΔΔARPI should be added to ΔARPI to get a more accurate estimate for the change in A's RPI.

CU77 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 30, 2022 9:10 pm I have run a ton of math on RPI (and also a number of other ranking systems). Losing to a team with a very good record usually improves a team's RPI, and beating a team with a very poor recrod usually decreases a team's RPI.

Here is something I posted on laxpower in 2015:

As the season winds down, where teams will end up on the RPI list becomes important. A full calculation takes a computer, but there is a fairly simple formula for how much a team's RPI will change from its next game.

Suppose Team A is going to play Team B. Define some numbers:

AG = number of games played by A to date (not including the upcoming game with B)
ARPI = A's current RPI
BWPxA = B's current winning percentage, excluding any prior games against A
WAB = 1 if A beats B, 0 if A loses to B

Then the change in A's RPI after playing B is approximately

ΔARPI = [(1/4)WAB + (1/2)BWPxA + (1/8) - ARPI] / (AG+1)

This should be accurate to within +/- 0.002 in most cases.

An additional correction can reduce the error to +/- 0.001 in most cases:

ΔΔARPI = [(1/2)BRPI - (1/8)BWP - (3/16)] / (AG+1)

where

BRPI = B's current RPI
BWP = B's current winning percentage (including any prior games against A)

ΔΔARPI should be added to ΔARPI to get a more accurate estimate for the change in A's RPI.

The error estimates apply to late in the season, today they would be higher.