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Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Posted: Thu Apr 23, 2020 2:48 pm
by RedFromMI
calourie wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 2:43 pm
Cooter wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:38 pm
Peter Brown wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:24 pm I don't know who this guy (Steve Hanke) is other than he is a Johns Hopkins econ professor. Read his tweet just now:

https://twitter.com/steve_hanke/status/ ... 57092?s=20

He is in essence saying a formal study in NYS (confirmed by Cuomo) shows that way more people have this virus than expected, but because we are all not dropping dead, the virus has a natural limitation on populations excepting those who are specifically compromised. He is also saying, go back to work.

Curious what the Dems here are thinking in reply to that.
I am pretty much in agreement with Hanke. What his twitter says is:
BREAKING: a #NewYork state study finds that ~14% of those tested had signs of the #coronavirus.

Gov. Cuomo says this translates to 2.7M coronavirus infections statewide.

The clock has run out on blanket lockdowns. It's time to reopen, carefully, & get Americans back to work.
2.7 million is 10 times that listed for New York (268,512) at the moment.

Lockdown those in bad health or elderly (at risk) away from society as best we can.
Democrat here, and say what I've been saying for some time now. Keep an eye on the numbers and the trends those numbers imply. We now all know this disease impacts the already infirmed elderly much more virulently and mortally than others, so the issue becomes what balance of attrition in that group we are willing to tolerate to begin the normalization of social and economic activity for those less impacted. The return to somewhat normal activity will require a considerably more severe isolation of the elderly (no visitations and such by family and others) until an effective vaccine is developed, or enough testing is in place to determine who is/isn't a carrier. Otherwise the number of deaths among the elderly will likely increase at a more disconcerting rate than occurs now. This scenario would likely put a severe damper on the pace of our return to normal which in itself would be to the detriment of economic activity and growth.

Full disclosure, I'm in the vulnerable group, and will be self isolating until I get a fairly reliably all clear, no matter what others do.
And 14% (which is state wide) or 21% which is the suggested number for the city is at the very least a factor of three or four too low for herd immunity.

And the lockdown the "bad health" portion is far larger than most people are willing to admit. So both the risk you would take to "open up" is still quite great, and the "open" you might envision would be probably too limited to make any good effect.

Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Posted: Thu Apr 23, 2020 3:18 pm
by thatsmell
runrussellrun wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 9:56 am
thatsmell wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 9:44 am Want to get out of your house? Take a walk. Take a drive. Totally legal in even the most locked down of states. Get stopped or pulled over? Just tell em you’re going to the hospital or booze store.
This isn't about "stretching the legs".

It's the ability to earn income. you and yours are happy to prevent millions of your neighbors from doing that.

Only, stats, and the medical community are saying this thing has been around (thank you JHU72 for providing the links) since the fall.....the anti bodies from tests, etc. Not the massive impact & outbreak as thought, especially without any social distortion.

and you all a 100% sure, that social distancing, is the reason why? :roll:
Dont look at me. My spending habits haven't changed one iota in the past 2 months. But I'm more of a recluse anyway. I'm still spending my money the same as I always have- with the exception of gasoline - still buying groceries from the same places, still eating from the same local restaurants etc. Might actually be spending more online.

Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Posted: Thu Apr 23, 2020 3:37 pm
by njbill
19 virus cases have been linked to the Wisconsin primary. Good job, Republicans.

Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Posted: Thu Apr 23, 2020 3:54 pm
by Typical Lax Dad
njbill wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 3:37 pm 19 virus cases have been linked to the Wisconsin primary. Good job, Republicans.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1188606

The sooner we get back to work, the sooner we will all be back at home.

https://www.fda.gov/patients/fast-track ... ity-review

Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Posted: Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:05 pm
by SCLaxAttack
Typical Lax Dad wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:45 pm
wgdsr wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:41 pm
https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/23/dat ... -patients/

this looks curiously like it might be 1 of the 2 reports out of china that were trials supposed to be scrapped? for not meeting patient numbers, news that was out a couple days before their awesomer news on chicago study last friday. all of these seem to be focusing on later stage treatment (up to 12 days after symptoms).
many proponents, as with hcq, believe the main benefit for remdesivir would be much earlier. given they don't have a lot of dosages anyway, maybe that doesn't help much if in fact that's the way things line up. be interested to see trials of them utilizing sooner, i'm guessing they're doing them.
We will get some concrete information soon. The guys I know have one drug in phase II and another in phase III. Someone will come up with an effective treatment. I like the guys I know but it could be anyone, including Gilead. You can’t rush the science.
Is one of those drugs sarilumab as mentioned in this article? https://www.newsday.com/news/health/cor ... 1.43997870

Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Posted: Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:23 pm
by RedFromMI
Don't know if this has been posted:
Hidden Outbreaks Spread Through U.S. Cities Far Earlier Than Americans Knew, Estimates Say
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/us/c ... e=Homepage

23 confirmed cases 3/1

model estimated cases as of that date: 28000!

over 10K in NYC

Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Posted: Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:33 pm
by Typical Lax Dad
SCLaxAttack wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:05 pm
Typical Lax Dad wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:45 pm
wgdsr wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:41 pm
https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/23/dat ... -patients/

this looks curiously like it might be 1 of the 2 reports out of china that were trials supposed to be scrapped? for not meeting patient numbers, news that was out a couple days before their awesomer news on chicago study last friday. all of these seem to be focusing on later stage treatment (up to 12 days after symptoms).
many proponents, as with hcq, believe the main benefit for remdesivir would be much earlier. given they don't have a lot of dosages anyway, maybe that doesn't help much if in fact that's the way things line up. be interested to see trials of them utilizing sooner, i'm guessing they're doing them.
We will get some concrete information soon. The guys I know have one drug in phase II and another in phase III. Someone will come up with an effective treatment. I like the guys I know but it could be anyone, including Gilead. You can’t rush the science.
Is one of those drugs sarilumab as mentioned in this article? https://www.newsday.com/news/health/cor ... 1.43997870
No. But from what I can glean from the article you linked is that it’s in the same sphere. We will get a solution. It’s just a matter of time. Vaccine may be more difficult.

Re: All things COVID-19

Posted: Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:36 pm
by RedFromMI
Really good interview (translated to English) of a top German virologist about COVID:

https://www.zeit.de/wissen/gesundheit/2 ... st-charite

One important point - he thinks the next year will essentially be lived under a state of "emergency" - so lots of changes will have to occur to modify lives for quite some time.

Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Posted: Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:38 pm
by kramerica.inc
Typical Lax Dad wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 3:54 pm
njbill wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 3:37 pm 19 virus cases have been linked to the Wisconsin primary. Good job, Republicans.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1188606

The sooner we get back to work, the sooner we will all be back at home.

https://www.fda.gov/patients/fast-track ... ity-review

19 cases doesn't seem to bad considering 1.5 million people went to the polls.

Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Posted: Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:43 pm
by Typical Lax Dad
kramerica.inc wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:38 pm
Typical Lax Dad wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 3:54 pm
njbill wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 3:37 pm 19 virus cases have been linked to the Wisconsin primary. Good job, Republicans.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1188606

The sooner we get back to work, the sooner we will all be back at home.

https://www.fda.gov/patients/fast-track ... ity-review

19 cases doesn't seem to bad considering 1.5 million people went to the polls.
I am sure it’s fine.

Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Posted: Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:48 pm
by cradleandshoot
njbill wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 2:36 pm Cuomo slam dunked on McConnell today. Knocked him down, then tap danced all over him. Was awarded a decision by TKO because Mitch was bleeding like a stuck pig. It was a real tour de force.
Kinda a one way conversation. King Andy made him an offer he could not refuse. If King Andy needs more money he will lustily suck Mitches member if it means getting the billions King Andy wants. All you have to do is look at the pecking order here... US Senate leader vs NYS governor. Who wins this pissing match? :roll:

Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Posted: Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:52 pm
by RedFromMI
kramerica.inc wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:38 pm
Typical Lax Dad wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 3:54 pm
njbill wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 3:37 pm 19 virus cases have been linked to the Wisconsin primary. Good job, Republicans.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1188606

The sooner we get back to work, the sooner we will all be back at home.

https://www.fda.gov/patients/fast-track ... ity-review

19 cases doesn't seem to bad considering 1.5 million people went to the polls.
Not nearly that many voted in person on election day...

864750 returned absentee ballots so actually a bit more than 600K voted in person. And the case count may actually be quite a bit higher...

Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Posted: Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:59 pm
by wgdsr
RedFromMI wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:23 pm Don't know if this has been posted:
Hidden Outbreaks Spread Through U.S. Cities Far Earlier Than Americans Knew, Estimates Say
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/us/c ... e=Homepage

23 confirmed cases 3/1

model estimated cases as of that date: 28000!

over 10K in NYC
whether their models are accurate or a facsimile,
we were wholly unprepared for this.
for people to think we would arrive at a different outcome with x-person is folly. have said that from the beginning.
to emphasize china travel bans or whether it got here from visa holders means you don't understand what we have. imo.
it was getting here regardless. from a hundred or a thousand sources. then it was spreading, silently at first, with no chance to catch up.

so, most importantly... what now? what next?

Re: All things CoronaVirus

Posted: Thu Apr 23, 2020 5:04 pm
by DocBarrister
cradleandshoot wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:48 pm
njbill wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 2:36 pm Cuomo slam dunked on McConnell today. Knocked him down, then tap danced all over him. Was awarded a decision by TKO because Mitch was bleeding like a stuck pig. It was a real tour de force.
Kinda a one way conversation. King Andy made him an offer he could not refuse. If King Andy needs more money he will lustily suck Mitches member if it means getting the billions King Andy wants. All you have to do is look at the pecking order here... US Senate leader vs NYS governor. Who wins this pissing match? :roll:
Cuomo ... as noted by a commentator on MSNBC, allowing New York and California to go bankrupt would be a sure way to crash the stock market even further. Even Trump won’t go along with that.

McConnell is trying to use the pandemic to break public unions and take away their pension funds. Pure evil ... pretty much exemplifies the Republican Party.

Odds are growing that McConnell is going to lose reelection.

DocBarrister

Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Posted: Thu Apr 23, 2020 5:09 pm
by wgdsr
RedFromMI wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:52 pm
kramerica.inc wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:38 pm
Typical Lax Dad wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 3:54 pm
njbill wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 3:37 pm 19 virus cases have been linked to the Wisconsin primary. Good job, Republicans.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1188606

The sooner we get back to work, the sooner we will all be back at home.

https://www.fda.gov/patients/fast-track ... ity-review
19 cases doesn't seem to bad considering 1.5 million people went to the polls.
Not nearly that many voted in person on election day...

864750 returned absentee ballots so actually a bit more than 600K voted in person. And the case count may actually be quite a bit higher...
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/cases-c ... d=70264956
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/22/politics ... index.html

is there a source that ties the contacts and contraction to the polling locations? abc and cnn seem to say there isn't any as of today. sourcing tpm, whose original report seems to confirm:
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/wisc ... lection-19

basically just says they found 19 people with confirmed covid that voted.

Re: All things CoronaVirus

Posted: Thu Apr 23, 2020 5:10 pm
by cradleandshoot
DocBarrister wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 5:04 pm
cradleandshoot wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:48 pm
njbill wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 2:36 pm Cuomo slam dunked on McConnell today. Knocked him down, then tap danced all over him. Was awarded a decision by TKO because Mitch was bleeding like a stuck pig. It was a real tour de force.
Kinda a one way conversation. King Andy made him an offer he could not refuse. If King Andy needs more money he will lustily suck Mitches member if it means getting the billions King Andy wants. All you have to do is look at the pecking order here... US Senate leader vs NYS governor. Who wins this pissing match? :roll:
Cuomo ... as noted by a commentator on MSNBC, allowing New York and California to go bankrupt would be a sure way to crash the stock market even further. Even Trump won’t go along with that.

McConnell is trying to use the pandemic to break public unions and take away their pension funds. Pure evil ... pretty much exemplifies the Republican Party.

Odds are growing that McConnell is going to lose reelection.

DocBarrister
No fan of McConnell, I could care less about anything he says. King Andy has an unquenchable thirst for billions of dollars to bail his state out. Sooner or later King Andy will need Mitch more than Mitch will ever need Andy. You should not bite the hand of the guy who shakes the money tree for you.

BIG SHOCKER (NOT): New Trump HHS Spokesman is a Filthy Racist

Posted: Thu Apr 23, 2020 5:12 pm
by DocBarrister
Ho, hum ... turns out the brand new HHS spokesman appointed by Trump is an anti-Asian racist piece of trash.

(CNN)The new spokesman for the Department of Health and Human Services in a series of now-deleted tweets made racist and derogatory comments about Chinese people, said Democrats wanted the coronavirus to kill millions of people and accused the media of intentionally creating panic around the pandemic to hurt President Donald Trump.

... Michael Caputo, a longtime New York Republican political operative who worked on Trump's 2016 presidential campaign, was appointed last week as Assistant Secretary for Public Affairs at HHS, a prominent communications role at the department which serves a central role in the federal government's response to the coronavirus pandemic.

Caputo, a prolific user who often tweeted insults and profanity, recently erased nearly his entire Twitter history from before April 12. CNN's KFile used the Internet Archive's Way Back Machine to review more than 1300 deleted tweets and retweets from late February to early April many of which were regarding the rapidly spreading coronavirus.


https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/23/politics ... index.html

Which reminds me ... when is the racist, xenophobic title of this thread going to be changed?

DocBarrister

Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Posted: Thu Apr 23, 2020 5:13 pm
by RedFromMI
wgdsr wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 5:09 pm
RedFromMI wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:52 pm
kramerica.inc wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:38 pm
Typical Lax Dad wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 3:54 pm
njbill wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 3:37 pm 19 virus cases have been linked to the Wisconsin primary. Good job, Republicans.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1188606

The sooner we get back to work, the sooner we will all be back at home.

https://www.fda.gov/patients/fast-track ... ity-review
19 cases doesn't seem to bad considering 1.5 million people went to the polls.
Not nearly that many voted in person on election day...

864750 returned absentee ballots so actually a bit more than 600K voted in person. And the case count may actually be quite a bit higher...
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/cases-c ... d=70264956
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/22/politics ... index.html

is there a source that ties the contacts and contraction to the polling locations? abc and cnn seem to say there isn't any as of today. sourcing tpm, whose original report seems to confirm:
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/wisc ... lection-19

basically just says they found 19 people with confirmed covid that voted.
It is quite difficult to actually prove that the confirmed cases were infected while waiting in line or voting, but it still was a reckless and unnecessary exercise to not postpone voting (basically because the Rs knew they would lose if everyone voted because of the strong primary campaign for the WI Supreme Court case run by the Ds).

There is a bit of an uptick occurring in WI cases happening right now, but the noise in the data is fairly large and it is not certain if it is noise or real.

Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Posted: Thu Apr 23, 2020 5:15 pm
by kramerica.inc
wgdsr wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 5:09 pm
RedFromMI wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:52 pm
kramerica.inc wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:38 pm
Typical Lax Dad wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 3:54 pm
njbill wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 3:37 pm 19 virus cases have been linked to the Wisconsin primary. Good job, Republicans.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1188606

The sooner we get back to work, the sooner we will all be back at home.

https://www.fda.gov/patients/fast-track ... ity-review
19 cases doesn't seem to bad considering 1.5 million people went to the polls.
Not nearly that many voted in person on election day...

864750 returned absentee ballots so actually a bit more than 600K voted in person. And the case count may actually be quite a bit higher...
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/cases-c ... d=70264956
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/22/politics ... index.html

is there a source that ties the contacts and contraction to the polling locations? abc and cnn seem to say there isn't any as of today. sourcing tpm, whose original report seems to confirm:
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/wisc ... lection-19

basically just says they found 19 people with confirmed covid that voted.
As long as they just voted and were quarantined for the other 14 possible incubation days. Hard to pinpoint the answer infection spot.

Re: All things CoronaVirus

Posted: Thu Apr 23, 2020 5:19 pm
by DocBarrister
cradleandshoot wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 5:10 pm
DocBarrister wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 5:04 pm
cradleandshoot wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:48 pm
njbill wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 2:36 pm Cuomo slam dunked on McConnell today. Knocked him down, then tap danced all over him. Was awarded a decision by TKO because Mitch was bleeding like a stuck pig. It was a real tour de force.
Kinda a one way conversation. King Andy made him an offer he could not refuse. If King Andy needs more money he will lustily suck Mitches member if it means getting the billions King Andy wants. All you have to do is look at the pecking order here... US Senate leader vs NYS governor. Who wins this pissing match? :roll:
Cuomo ... as noted by a commentator on MSNBC, allowing New York and California to go bankrupt would be a sure way to crash the stock market even further. Even Trump won’t go along with that.

McConnell is trying to use the pandemic to break public unions and take away their pension funds. Pure evil ... pretty much exemplifies the Republican Party.

Odds are growing that McConnell is going to lose reelection.

DocBarrister
No fan of McConnell, I could care less about anything he says. King Andy has an unquenchable thirst for billions of dollars to bail his state out. Sooner or later King Andy will need Mitch more than Mitch will ever need Andy. You should not bite the hand of the guy who shakes the money tree for you.
Please ... Schumer and Pelosi have been negotiating directly with Mnuchin, completely bypassing McConnell.

Remember, McConnell only wanted a “clean” PPP bill. Didn’t get that ... but he passed what Mnuchin, Schumer, and Pelosi negotiated anyway.

PPP funding is going to run dry in less than a week. Soon, people everywhere will be demanding another stimulus check. Mnuchin and Trump will need more money from Pelosi, and she won’t let that happen in the next round unless there is a lot of money for state and local governments.

DocBarrister