All things Chinese CoronaVirus

[wgdsr]

I don't know who this guy (Steve Hanke) is other than he is a Johns Hopkins econ professor. Read his tweet just now:

https://twitter.com/steve_hanke/status/ ... 57092?s=20

He is in essence saying a formal study in NYS (confirmed by Cuomo) shows that way more people have this virus than expected, but because we are all not dropping dead, the virus has a natural limitation on populations excepting those who are specifically compromised. He is also saying, go back to work.

Curious what the Dems here are thinking in reply to that.

expected by who?

[ggait]

Curious what the Dems here are thinking in reply to that.

Petey -- this has been duh obvious for weeks. Has been discussed on here extensively already.

You understand AxB=C, right?

The take away is that infections are higher than perhaps thought. WAY higher than seasonal flu.

And the lethality is lower than thought. But still WAY higher than seasonal flu.

Seasonal flu is 0.01% deadly. 1918 Spanish flu was 2.5% deadly. Covid is 1% deadly (according to Fauci), but could be as low as 0.02%. Which would still be double seasonal flu (but with many more cases).

And the net result is still the net result. The pile of dead bodies over there is the size that it is, regardless of how you got to that.

What are YOU thinking about this? Your point is what exactly?

[Cooter]

I don't know who this guy (Steve Hanke) is other than he is a Johns Hopkins econ professor. Read his tweet just now:

https://twitter.com/steve_hanke/status/ ... 57092?s=20

He is in essence saying a formal study in NYS (confirmed by Cuomo) shows that way more people have this virus than expected, but because we are all not dropping dead, the virus has a natural limitation on populations excepting those who are specifically compromised. He is also saying, go back to work.

Curious what the Dems here are thinking in reply to that.

I am pretty much in agreement with Hanke. What his twitter says is:

BREAKING: a #NewYork state study finds that ~14% of those tested had signs of the #coronavirus.

Gov. Cuomo says this translates to 2.7M coronavirus infections statewide.

The clock has run out on blanket lockdowns. It's time to reopen, carefully, & get Americans back to work.

2.7 million is 10 times that listed for New York (268,512) at the moment.

Lockdown those in bad health or elderly (at risk) away from society as best we can.

[njbill]

Uh, oh. Time to sell Gilead. Bad news on Remdesivir. Down over 5% today.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/23/dat ... -patients/

[wgdsr]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/dow-fut ... laims.html

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/23/dat ... -patients/

this looks curiously like it might be 1 of the 2 reports out of china that were trials supposed to be scrapped? for not meeting patient numbers, news that was out a couple days before their awesomer news on chicago study last friday. all of these seem to be focusing on later stage treatment (up to 12 days after symptoms).
many proponents, as with hcq, believe the main benefit for remdesivir would be much earlier. given they don't have a lot of dosages anyway, maybe that doesn't help much if in fact that's the way things line up. be interested to see trials of them utilizing sooner, i'm guessing they're doing them.

[ggait]

Note what this guy actually says:

The clock has run out on blanket lockdowns. It's time to reopen, CAREFULLY, & get Americans back to work.

No one disagrees with that.

Everyone (except dummies and partisan hacks) says opening recklessly (calling Gov. Kemp!!) is stupid, dangerous and counter-productive economically.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Curious what the Dems here are thinking in reply to that.

Petey -- this has been duh obvious for weeks. Has been discussed on here extensively already.

You understand AxB=C, right?

The take away is that infections are higher than perhaps thought. WAY higher than seasonal flu.

And the lethality is lower than thought. But still WAY higher than seasonal flu.

Seasonal flu is 0.01% deadly. 1918 Spanish flu was 2.5% deadly. Covid is 1% deadly (according to Fauci), but could be as low as 0.02%. Which would still be double seasonal flu (but with many more cases).

And the net result is still the net result. The pile of dead bodies over there is the size that it is, regardless of how you got to that.

What are YOU thinking about this? Your point is what exactly?

We will pass the season flu six month total in 1/3 the time with social distancing measures. Hope we find the right mix to control the spread. I want folks to get back to work and back to school as soon as possible but not sooner than is safe.

[ggait]

Uh, oh. Time to sell Gilead. Bad news on Remdesivir. Down over 5% today.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/23/dat ... -patients/

Uh-oh Petey. NJ Bill organizing class action lawsuit for LP posters who relied on PB investment advice.

[Typical Lax Dad]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/dow-fut ... laims.html

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/23/dat ... -patients/

this looks curiously like it might be 1 of the 2 reports out of china that were trials supposed to be scrapped? for not meeting patient numbers, news that was out a couple days before their awesomer news on chicago study last friday. all of these seem to be focusing on later stage treatment (up to 12 days after symptoms).
many proponents, as with hcq, believe the main benefit for remdesivir would be much earlier. given they don't have a lot of dosages anyway, maybe that doesn't help much if in fact that's the way things line up. be interested to see trials of them utilizing sooner, i'm guessing they're doing them.

We will get some concrete information soon. The guys I know have one drug in phase II and another in phase III. Someone will come up with an effective treatment. I like the guys I know but it could be anyone, including Gilead. You can’t rush the science.

[Peter Brown]

Curious what the Dems here are thinking in reply to that.

Petey -- this has been duh obvious for weeks. Has been discussed on here extensively already.

You understand AxB=C, right?

The take away is that infections are higher than perhaps thought. WAY higher than seasonal flu.

And the lethality is lower than thought. But still WAY higher than seasonal flu.

Seasonal flu is 0.01% deadly. 1918 Spanish flu was 2.5% deadly. Covid is 1% deadly (according to Fauci), but could be as low as 0.02%. Which would still be double seasonal flu (but with many more cases).

And the net result is still the net result. The pile of dead bodies over there is the size that it is, regardless of how you got to that.

What are YOU thinking about this? Your point is what exactly?

Cooter said it better than I can. Just re-open already, and keep the possibly compromised away for the time being. Most of us are quite healthy.

Meanwhile, you have to think suicides are rising:

https://www.valleycentral.com/news/loca ... the-virus/

Is it worth it?

[Peter Brown]

Uh, oh. Time to sell Gilead. Bad news on Remdesivir. Down over 5% today.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/23/dat ... -patients/

Uh-oh Petey. NJ Bill organizing class action lawsuit for LP posters who relied on PB investment advice.

You don't buy to sell! I am long and strong and will stay that way for a long time.

[njbill]

Everyone (except dummies and partisan hacks) says opening recklessly (calling Gov. Kemp!!) is stupid, dangerous and counter-productive economically.

Hey, hey. So cynical. Kemp just needed to get his nails done. What’s a guy to do?

[njbill]

Uh, oh. Time to sell Gilead. Bad news on Remdesivir. Down over 5% today.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/23/dat ... -patients/

Uh-oh Petey. NJ Bill organizing class action lawsuit for LP posters who relied on PB investment advice.

Haha. The fee has to have a lot of zeros for me to come out of retirement.

[RedFromMI]

Curious what the Dems here are thinking in reply to that.

Petey -- this has been duh obvious for weeks. Has been discussed on here extensively already.

You understand AxB=C, right?

The take away is that infections are higher than perhaps thought. WAY higher than seasonal flu.

And the lethality is lower than thought. But still WAY higher than seasonal flu.

Seasonal flu is 0.01% deadly. 1918 Spanish flu was 2.5% deadly. Covid is 1% deadly (according to Fauci), but could be as low as 0.02%. Which would still be double seasonal flu (but with many more cases).

And the net result is still the net result. The pile of dead bodies over there is the size that it is, regardless of how you got to that.

What are YOU thinking about this? Your point is what exactly?

Cooter said it better than I can. Just re-open already, and keep the possibly compromised away for the time being. Most of us are quite healthy.

Meanwhile, you have to think suicides are rising:

https://www.valleycentral.com/news/loca ... the-virus/

Is it worth it?

You cannot keep the possibly compromised away if you don't know who they are. I don't think there is one state that is ready for the testing/tracing/isolation of individuals yet, and none yet where the rate of cases has dropped down near zero.

As one commentator on my Twitter feed says: it's like taking off your parachute at 2000 feet because it has already slowed you down...

Best practice for isolation is to get outside.

[Peter Brown]

Curious what the Dems here are thinking in reply to that.

Petey -- this has been duh obvious for weeks. Has been discussed on here extensively already.

You understand AxB=C, right?

The take away is that infections are higher than perhaps thought. WAY higher than seasonal flu.

And the lethality is lower than thought. But still WAY higher than seasonal flu.

Seasonal flu is 0.01% deadly. 1918 Spanish flu was 2.5% deadly. Covid is 1% deadly (according to Fauci), but could be as low as 0.02%. Which would still be double seasonal flu (but with many more cases).

And the net result is still the net result. The pile of dead bodies over there is the size that it is, regardless of how you got to that.

What are YOU thinking about this? Your point is what exactly?

Cooter said it better than I can. Just re-open already, and keep the possibly compromised away for the time being. Most of us are quite healthy.

Meanwhile, you have to think suicides are rising:

https://www.valleycentral.com/news/loca ... the-virus/

Is it worth it?

You cannot keep the possibly compromised away if you don't know who they are. I don't think there is one state that is ready for the testing/tracing/isolation of individuals yet, and none yet where the rate of cases has dropped down near zero.

As one commentator on my Twitter feed says: it's like taking off your parachute at 2000 feet because it has already slowed you down...

Best practice for isolation is to get outside.

I think we mean those with asthma, COPD, heart disease, etc...

[njbill]

Uh, oh. Time to sell Gilead. Bad news on Remdesivir. Down over 5% today.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/23/dat ... -patients/

Uh-oh Petey. NJ Bill organizing class action lawsuit for LP posters who relied on PB investment advice.

You don't buy to sell! I am long and strong and will stay that way for a long time.

You don’t buy to lose either. Well, I guess you’ll have a large capital loss to offset against all of the other big gains you have from your other smart investment decisions.

[njbill]

Cuomo slam dunked on McConnell today. Knocked him down, then tap danced all over him. Was awarded a decision by TKO because Mitch was bleeding like a stuck pig. It was a real tour de force.

[njbill]

Bright says he is going to file a complaint with the inspector general.

As soon as Trump hears that, he will fire the inspector general, of course.

[calourie]

I don't know who this guy (Steve Hanke) is other than he is a Johns Hopkins econ professor. Read his tweet just now:

https://twitter.com/steve_hanke/status/ ... 57092?s=20

He is in essence saying a formal study in NYS (confirmed by Cuomo) shows that way more people have this virus than expected, but because we are all not dropping dead, the virus has a natural limitation on populations excepting those who are specifically compromised. He is also saying, go back to work.

Curious what the Dems here are thinking in reply to that.

I am pretty much in agreement with Hanke. What his twitter says is:

BREAKING: a #NewYork state study finds that ~14% of those tested had signs of the #coronavirus.

Gov. Cuomo says this translates to 2.7M coronavirus infections statewide.

The clock has run out on blanket lockdowns. It's time to reopen, carefully, & get Americans back to work.

2.7 million is 10 times that listed for New York (268,512) at the moment.

Lockdown those in bad health or elderly (at risk) away from society as best we can.

Democrat here, and say what I've been saying for some time now. Keep an eye on the numbers and the trends those numbers imply. We now all know this disease impacts the already infirmed elderly much more virulently and mortally than others, so the issue becomes what balance of attrition in that group we are willing to tolerate to begin the normalization of social and economic activity for those less impacted. The return to somewhat normal activity will require a considerably more severe isolation of the elderly (no visitations and such by family and others) until an effective vaccine is developed, or enough testing is in place to determine who is/isn't a carrier. Otherwise the number of deaths among the elderly will likely increase at a more disconcerting rate than occurs now. This scenario would likely put a severe damper on the pace of our return to normal which in itself would be to the detriment of economic activity and growth.

Full disclosure, I'm in the vulnerable group, and will be self isolating until I get a fairly reliably all clear, no matter what others do.

[RedFromMI]

There has been some limited antibody testing done in NYC - not necessarily a fully representative sample. But from the results - which suggest 21% of city residents have had COVID-19 if representative - that would translate to a death rate using published numbers of deaths of about 0.76%.

Not that far from Fauci's 1% number. And the data is quite limited, and involved testing outside big box stores, so is probably not a true representation of the population. (Given that it is measuring people out and about alone makes it less than representative).

If the sample over estimates the fraction (which would be the more likely case given how the samples were taken) the real death rate would go higher.

(And then back down when you later use statistics to get the true excess deaths. But still quite likely much higher death rate than the flu).