LaxPower Back-Up Stick

Don't predict many tight games this weekend other than Gettysburg vs Stevenson

Swat vs ETown- 18-6 Swat rolls, just get to the Amherst game already
F&M vs Catholic- Dips 14-7 not close, Catholic cannot hang
Gettysburg vs Stevenson- Gettysburg 12-9 better, good game
McDaniel vs Alvernia- Mickey D's 15-6
Ursinus vs DeSales- DeSales 10-8 toughs it out
Muhlenberg vs RPI- RPI 14-6, Mules smacked
Washington vs Mary Washington- Wash 13-6
Dickinson vs Roanoke- Dickinson 16-8
Haverford vs RMC- RMC 18-10 as Hav runs into legit team

ToeDipper78 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 01, 2024 11:08 am Don't predict many tight games this weekend other than Gettysburg vs Stevenson

Swat vs ETown- 18-6 Swat rolls, just get to the Amherst game already
F&M vs Catholic- Dips 14-7 not close, Catholic cannot hang
Gettysburg vs Stevenson- Gettysburg 12-9 better, good game
McDaniel vs Alvernia- Mickey D's 15-6
Ursinus vs DeSales- DeSales 10-8 toughs it out
Muhlenberg vs RPI- RPI 14-6, Mules smacked
Washington vs Mary Washington- Wash 13-6
Dickinson vs Roanoke- Dickinson 16-8
Haverford vs RMC- RMC 18-10 as Hav runs into legit team

One plus all of these except I have Mary Washington taking the win in a close one

Dickinson only beats Roanoke by 2... #5 in the polls feels a little high this year

Dickinson has a close D problem. All three of their games had attack in the top 3 scoring goals. Watching them shows slows slides and a tendency to overcommit on north south dodging. I think its as much about pure athleticism vs awareness.

hooray wrote: ↑Sat Mar 02, 2024 6:06 pm Dickinson only beats Roanoke by 2... #5 in the polls feels a little high this year

The discussion of who should be ranked when is always up for debate. But Dickinson historically has a slow start to the season. Roanoke is always a good game for them, might even venture to call it a rivalry. It has been a close game for the past 6 years or so. I dont think its anything to sound the alarms about for Red Devil fans.

doclax wrote: ↑Sat Mar 02, 2024 6:54 pm

hooray wrote: ↑Sat Mar 02, 2024 6:06 pm Dickinson only beats Roanoke by 2... #5 in the polls feels a little high this year

The discussion of who should be ranked when is always up for debate. But Dickinson historically has a slow start to the season. Roanoke is always a good game for them, might even venture to call it a rivalry. It has been a close game for the past 6 years or so. I dont think its anything to sound the alarms about for Red Devil fans.

Margin of victory for the most part means very little. There are so many factors that combine to make a single game a unique event. Rain, wind , temperature, time of day, refs, exams, travel, etc., etc., etc.

I don't know if its true but I was told a pretty significant flu bug hit Gettysburg and several starters were pretty ill all week prior to the Stevenson game. If true, that certainly might make a 2 goal win look pretty good. Even if not true it's the type of circumstance that diminishes margin of victory as a metric when ranking teams. it can be used in an analysis but I personally don't give it a lot of weight. Generally speaking the better team finds a way to win regardless of the factors affecting an individual game.

I try to take all the information I have for the teams playing a particular game (W/L, who have they played and when, league/non league game, and yes the controversial eye test) and come up with a very subjective, how many games would each team win it they played a 10 game series. In this particular case of Dickinson vs Roanoke, my feeling is the 2024 Dickinson team would win 7/10 against the 2024 Roanoke team and this particular Gettysburg team would win 8/10 against this particular Stevenson team.

Laxdds wrote: ↑Sun Mar 03, 2024 7:55 am

doclax wrote: ↑Sat Mar 02, 2024 6:54 pm

hooray wrote: ↑Sat Mar 02, 2024 6:06 pm Dickinson only beats Roanoke by 2... #5 in the polls feels a little high this year

The discussion of who should be ranked when is always up for debate. But Dickinson historically has a slow start to the season. Roanoke is always a good game for them, might even venture to call it a rivalry. It has been a close game for the past 6 years or so. I dont think its anything to sound the alarms about for Red Devil fans.

Margin of victory for the most part means very little. There are so many factors that combine to make a single game a unique event. Rain, wind , temperature, time of day, refs, exams, travel, etc., etc., etc.

I don't know if its true but I was told a pretty significant flu bug hit Gettysburg and several starters were pretty ill all week prior to the Stevenson game. If true, that certainly might make a 2 goal win look pretty good. Even if not true it's the type of circumstance that diminishes margin of victory as a metric when ranking teams. it can be used in an analysis but I personally don't give it a lot of weight. Generally speaking the better team finds a way to win regardless of the factors affecting an individual game.

I try to take all the information I have for the teams playing a particular game (W/L, who have they played and when, league/non league game, and yes the controversial eye test) and come up with a very subjective, how many games would each team win it they played a 10 game series. In this particular case of Dickinson vs Roanoke, my feeling is the 2024 Dickinson team would win 7/10 against the 2024 Roanoke team and this particular Gettysburg team would win 8/10 against this particular Stevenson team.

It's college lacrosse. When these top 30 programs face each other, anyone can beat anyone with a proper game plan. All these kids are talented enough on the right day to beat anyone they face, which is the beauty of college lacrosse.

hooray wrote: ↑Sat Mar 02, 2024 6:06 pm Dickinson only beats Roanoke by 2... #5 in the polls feels a little high this year

Kudos to Roanoke they played well. The Devils have a lot to work on but Coach Webster always says that. Lots of top
players went abroad and did not participate in fall ball. They could not practice until 2/1. That is true with every Dickinson team. This team has most of the players who have gone 39-4 with 3 one goal losses in last 2 years(2 to CNU with one in OT) and 3 games and 3-4 record against Gettysburg. Should be fun to face good CC teams like we do every year. Class conference with high academics throughout.

ChopMan23 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 03, 2024 9:05 am

Laxdds wrote: ↑Sun Mar 03, 2024 7:55 am

doclax wrote: ↑Sat Mar 02, 2024 6:54 pm

hooray wrote: ↑Sat Mar 02, 2024 6:06 pm Dickinson only beats Roanoke by 2... #5 in the polls feels a little high this year

The discussion of who should be ranked when is always up for debate. But Dickinson historically has a slow start to the season. Roanoke is always a good game for them, might even venture to call it a rivalry. It has been a close game for the past 6 years or so. I dont think its anything to sound the alarms about for Red Devil fans.

Margin of victory for the most part means very little. There are so many factors that combine to make a single game a unique event. Rain, wind , temperature, time of day, refs, exams, travel, etc., etc., etc.

I don't know if its true but I was told a pretty significant flu bug hit Gettysburg and several starters were pretty ill all week prior to the Stevenson game. If true, that certainly might make a 2 goal win look pretty good. Even if not true it's the type of circumstance that diminishes margin of victory as a metric when ranking teams. it can be used in an analysis but I personally don't give it a lot of weight. Generally speaking the better team finds a way to win regardless of the factors affecting an individual game.

I try to take all the information I have for the teams playing a particular game (W/L, who have they played and when, league/non league game, and yes the controversial eye test) and come up with a very subjective, how many games would each team win it they played a 10 game series. In this particular case of Dickinson vs Roanoke, my feeling is the 2024 Dickinson team would win 7/10 against the 2024 Roanoke team and this particular Gettysburg team would win 8/10 against this particular Stevenson team.

It's college lacrosse. When these top 30 programs face each other, anyone can beat anyone with a proper game plan. All these kids are talented enough on the right day to beat anyone they face, which is the beauty of college lacrosse.

That couldn’t be further from the truth in division 3, at least past few years. The difference in talent between the top ~5-10 teams and the ~25-30 teams is enormous. I agree there’s always some chance, but there is very large gap between the talent of the best teams and the good teams. The only question is which teams are actually the top teams, and which teams are just good.

CentennialPundit wrote: ↑Sun Mar 03, 2024 9:42 pm

ChopMan23 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 03, 2024 9:05 am

Laxdds wrote: ↑Sun Mar 03, 2024 7:55 am

doclax wrote: ↑Sat Mar 02, 2024 6:54 pm

hooray wrote: ↑Sat Mar 02, 2024 6:06 pm Dickinson only beats Roanoke by 2... #5 in the polls feels a little high this year

The discussion of who should be ranked when is always up for debate. But Dickinson historically has a slow start to the season. Roanoke is always a good game for them, might even venture to call it a rivalry. It has been a close game for the past 6 years or so. I dont think its anything to sound the alarms about for Red Devil fans.

Margin of victory for the most part means very little. There are so many factors that combine to make a single game a unique event. Rain, wind , temperature, time of day, refs, exams, travel, etc., etc., etc.

I don't know if its true but I was told a pretty significant flu bug hit Gettysburg and several starters were pretty ill all week prior to the Stevenson game. If true, that certainly might make a 2 goal win look pretty good. Even if not true it's the type of circumstance that diminishes margin of victory as a metric when ranking teams. it can be used in an analysis but I personally don't give it a lot of weight. Generally speaking the better team finds a way to win regardless of the factors affecting an individual game.

I try to take all the information I have for the teams playing a particular game (W/L, who have they played and when, league/non league game, and yes the controversial eye test) and come up with a very subjective, how many games would each team win it they played a 10 game series. In this particular case of Dickinson vs Roanoke, my feeling is the 2024 Dickinson team would win 7/10 against the 2024 Roanoke team and this particular Gettysburg team would win 8/10 against this particular Stevenson team.

It's college lacrosse. When these top 30 programs face each other, anyone can beat anyone with a proper game plan. All these kids are talented enough on the right day to beat anyone they face, which is the beauty of college lacrosse.

That couldn’t be further from the truth in division 3, at least past few years. The difference in talent between the top ~5-10 teams and the ~25-30 teams is enormous. I agree there’s always some chance, but there is very large gap between the talent of the best teams and the good teams. The only question is which teams are actually the top teams, and which teams are just good.

Hence why I said with the right game plan, and on the right day. Especially these early games.

Kudos to Bullets for pulling out what was expected to be a low scoring, barn burner.

My biggest takeaway was the young talent on offense for the Bullets. Lots of poise and skill shown from the Bullets underclassmen in some very key situations.

Another close loss for my Mustangs. Most definitely encouraged by this young group. However, worried about goalie play, Scorese was supposed to be a strength coming into the year and has struggled mightily in three of four games.

Mustangs have to get back on the horse with a daunting schedule upcoming! Best of luck to the Bullets the rest of way!

StevieUAlum wrote: ↑Mon Mar 04, 2024 10:53 am Kudos to Bullets for pulling out what was expected to be a low scoring, barn burner.

My biggest takeaway was the young talent on offense for the Bullets. Lots of poise and skill shown from the Bullets underclassmen in some very key situations.

Another close loss for my Mustangs. Most definitely encouraged by this young group. However, worried about goalie play, Scorese was supposed to be a strength coming into the year and has struggled mightily in three of four games.

Mustangs have to get back on the horse with a daunting schedule upcoming! Best of luck to the Bullets the rest of way!

Thanks StevieU,
I thought the Mustangs played hard the entire game and it really could have gone either way, there is plenty of young talent on that squad to make you feel good about things going forward and plenty of wins will come. I don't know if you were at the game and I'm sure most players, parents and alum are in full support of the coach, but WOW!! He undressed one of the offensive players (one of the young attackmen I believe), in front of the both benches, the stands full of parents and anyone within 150 yards could hear. He really unloaded on him, I'm all for coaching and I know in the heat of battle things sometimes get a little out of hand but I thought to myself I wouldn't have wanted to play for a coach like that nor would I want my son to. That's just my personal observation and I'm sure others had no problem with it.

Good Luck with the Mustang Classic this year, it's a fantastic event.

Missed the midweek picks thanks to a hectic work schedule ill make up for it with some picks



McDaniel vs Juniata- The school formerly known as Western Maryland College is 4-0(when was the last time that happened?) Happy for the Green Terror. I think they make it 5-0. WMC 13-6

Haverford vs Susquehanna- The Black Squirrels got taken to the wood chipper last week vs Randolph Macon. The goalie seems to be struggling this year but the offensive seems to be scoring more. Give me the Fords in a close one 11-9

F&M vs Kenyon- This is an under the radar good game. Kenyon gave Dickinson everything they could handle for about 2.5 quarters before the Devils broke the game open. I see a similar game here with the Dips pulling away in the second half 12-8

McDaniel vs Washington and Jefferson- Green Terror goes back to back and stays undefeated on the season. WMC 18-6

Gettysburg vs W&L- This is is going to be a very interesting matchup. I think at its core both these teams are so evenly matched in total talent that we will be in for a real treat. To me the X factor will continue to be at the face off dot and in te cage. W&L has a massive advantage at the dot, and im starting to believe in Morgan in the cage for Gettysburg. I expect this to be back and forth with the Bullets pulling away due to some W&L late defensive mistakes and or easy goals let in by the keeper. Bullets 14-11

WAC vs RMC- Washington struggled in the rain on Wednesday vs a Mary Washington team who lost to RMC. Im nervous WACs goalie is going to struggle with RMC's big time shooters. This could be a long day for WAC especially if we are not winning face-offs. RMC 18-12

Ursinus vs RIT- The Bears got a very nice win on Wednesday vs Eastern who does not seem to be playing as well as they did at the early start of the season. Ursinus seems to have found its grove on offense and is getting some nice production from some young guys but this is a top 3 team in the country with RIT. Give me the Tigers 22-8

Muhlenberg vs Union- The Mules are not the team they were last season but still have the abilty to keep it close with a good defensive scheme. If they can get some better offensive production I think they have a shot at the 5th spot in the conference. Unfortunately I think Union takes advantage of the Mules youth and takes this one. 14-7

Dickinson vs Stevenson- Dickinson has yet to really find their grove. Nothing to worry about, but I could see a slip up here especially if Stevenson avoids an implosion. Screw it Stevenson is due. Stangs 13-12

Haven’t been able to tune into any games. What’s going on with Gettysburg and ursinus? Both surprising score lines for different reasons…. Any insights?

The CC as a conference had some highs and lows over the weekend. A smaller but intriguing mid week slate has me ready to make some picks

F&M vs Roanoke- The Dips found a way to survive a tough Kenyon team.I feel this way every year about F&M, in that I really do not know if they are top 20 good or not. They most certainly have the talent and coaching to be a top 20 team but it seems like when it matters the most they dont show up. Kenyon is a good team but Id say a tier below F&M in talent but inlike the Dips tend to show up in big games so im going to give them credit for hanging on to that win. Roanoke, can score, but they cannot play defense. I expect the Dips to have their way on offense, but the real question is can they stop the Maroons. That well is TBD. If they can win the possession battle I think the Diplomats squeak by in a high scoring affair. Dips 15-12

Western Maryland(McDaniel) vs Randolph Macon- A battle of unbeatens. Randy Mac must be trying to get an invite to the CC as this is their 4th game vs a CC team this year(3-0). RMC is big, athletic, wants to run, and can shoot it better then most( which they did vs my Shoremen in Saturday.) This game was a 1 goal game last year which I would not have expected so maybe McDaniel has confidence that they can keep it close. The only way I see the Terror taking this is if their goalie has a great day; and even then I think blowout. RMC 18-6

Muhlenberg vs Colorado College- The Mules are 1-5 after playing a tough out of conference schedule head west to play yet another tough out of conference opponent at altitude. Ill be the first to admit I do not like their chances is in this one strictly becuase of CC's home field advantage. What I am looking for in this game is an offensive improvment by the young Mules offense. So far it seems the knowns have not been as consistent as needed. Faceoffs continue to be an concern especially in close games. Give me Colorado College in a close one 11-9

Swarthmore vs Amherst- This is the game I am going to be watching while im supposed to be working Wednesday. Swat has been an absolute juggernaut this year especially on offense scoring with an incredible efficiency. They have mutiple guys who could easliy be #1 option and are difficulty to defend with their motion offense. On the flip side goalie issues have me concerned that Swat isnt built to withstand offensive onslaughts against them. The NESCAC is probably one of my bigger blidspots when it comes to personel. Yes I know they are all great players but to me the CC has just as many skilled players, they just choose to play at a more conservative pace. My heart tells me to take the Garnett here in a shootout but my head says the travel will give Amherst an advantage, they are probably more battle tested even with less games under their belt, and I still think about Swat as a bottom teir CC team even with the amount of talent I see on the field Amherst 18-15

Agree with all your takes except these two

ReturnOfTheWAC wrote: ↑Tue Mar 12, 2024 8:20 am Muhlenberg vs Colorado College- The Mules are 1-5 after playing a tough out of conference schedule head west to play yet another tough out of conference opponent at altitude. Ill be the first to admit I do not like their chances is in this one strictly becuase of CC's home field advantage. What I am looking for in this game is an offensive improvment by the young Mules offense. So far it seems the knowns have not been as consistent as needed. Faceoffs continue to be an concern especially in close games. Give me Colorado College in a close one 11-9

Swarthmore vs Amherst- This is the game I am going to be watching while im supposed to be working Wednesday. Swat has been an absolute juggernaut this year especially on offense scoring with an incredible efficiency. They have mutiple guys who could easliy be #1 option and are difficulty to defend with their motion offense. On the flip side goalie issues have me concerned that Swat isnt built to withstand offensive onslaughts against them. The NESCAC is probably one of my bigger blidspots when it comes to personel. Yes I know they are all great players but to me the CC has just as many skilled players, they just choose to play at a more conservative pace. My heart tells me to take the Garnett here in a shootout but my head says the travel will give Amherst an advantage, they are probably more battle tested even with less games under their belt, and I still think about Swat as a bottom teir CC team even with the amount of talent I see on the field Amherst 18-15

I think Mulhenberg will "get right" here. They are a much better team than CC (in theory) and I think will flex their muscles in a fun spring break game. Muhlenberg 15-10.

From what I have seen Swarthmore is the more talented team this year. Both teams are gonna come out firing with something to prove, but I think talent prevails here. Swarthmore 20-15. (Also Swarthmore coming off of a lot of rest)

For a second half team to look so sloppy is not what many expected with so many scoring threats. Lets start with the good. Maston is shifty and deserves the game ball. He looked good and has the right hands and speed to be a first line player. Move Mabbs down maybe. I think chemistry would change for the better. Close D looked pretty good. Team did a good job on settled 1v1's. First half...showed they can play. What was bad. Whats with the goalie experiment? There were too many goals that should have been stopped. Couple that with the athleticism, I cant figure out the rationale here when Pretzer has looked good outside a tough half at Eastern. I expect this to be a change . Not one fast break goal.
Mabbs likes to force it alot. Once his head is down, there is no chance for a feed Given the weapons he has, he has to improve on ball control and feeding. Expect more from the captain in forthcoming games. SSDM playing flat footed and lunging. Need this crew to get better quickly. Settled O in second half. Many dropped balls and forced passes. Almgren has a solid first step and then stalls out. Needs to be more aggressive. Lots of drops this game Ohrman needs more wall ball. Also lots of drops. Last thing..Face off wins...settlling it better but can we spend any more time getting the midfield on?? We keep them down on O with the pole for almost 20 seconds sometimes. No point. Pull it together Swat! Harder games coming!

Hopefully that serves as a good wake up call for Swarthmore because… yikes. Fairly certain they’re leaving thinking they could’ve won (by a fair margin). Credit to Amherst defense for mucking up swats flow in the second half and their goalie made some great saves. Tyson was great inside for Swarthmore and bailed them out more than a few times but also let in some he should’ve had. Hopefully on to bigger and better things for the garnet.

CentennialPundit wrote: ↑Wed Mar 13, 2024 7:02 pm Hopefully that serves as a good wake up call for Swarthmore because… yikes. Fairly certain they’re leaving thinking they could’ve won (by a fair margin). Credit to Amherst defense for mucking up swats flow in the second half and their goalie made some great saves. Tyson was great inside for Swarthmore and bailed them out more than a few times but also let in some he should’ve had. Hopefully on to bigger and better things for the garnet.

The big adjustment from Amherst in the second half was to have the 2 slide communicated and then slide really early. Passes to the middle were not there or easily disrupted.

I thought the starting Swat goalie played great, made some nice saves low for a taller guy. Like all goalies I'm sure he wants a couple retries.

In following and watching many of the Centennial Conf. teams I have to give some recognition to Coach D and the McDaniel Green Terror. This is a team that is greatly improved and definitely appears to be on the upswing. All reports of Coach D, who took over 2 years ago, have been fantastic and it seems that he is rebuilding a quality program. In their game against Randolph Macon tonight they had the lead for the 1st quarter and then kept the game tied or within 1 up until the 4th, eventually losing 11-8. Randolph Macon is 7-0 and has been killing teams including Haverford 22-8. For a team that has struggled in recent years I think they are doing something and I’m looking forward to seeing what they continue to do in the future. Plus that stadium is a great place to play.