LaxPower Back-Up Stick

joewillie78 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 11, 2023 6:21 pm Just looked and all teams have played so here is my top 25 as of March 11;
1. Notre Dame
2. Virginia
3. Duke
4. Penn State
5. Rutgers
6. Yale
7. Cornell
8. Maryland
9. North Carolina
10. John's Hopkins
11. Villanova
12. Jacksonville
13. Army
14. Loyola
15. Penn
16. Princeton
17. Boston University
18. Delaware
19. Ohio State
20. St. Joseph
21. Syracuse
22. Georgetown
23. Michigan
24. Dartmouth
25. Lehigh

Throw those spears and stones.
Gobigred
Joewillie78

Would personally slide PSU and MD to 3&4, Duke 5 pushing the next few down a spot. Loyola, PTon feel like they should be a little lower. Then I’d slide Mich/Dart/Lehigh above OSU/St Joes/GTown. Not sure what to do w 3-4 cuse. Lehighs not been great but their only loss is at (full strength) cornell which should push them higher.

Watched that OSU get powned by ND and they looked like they’d be 3rd or 4th in a average A10.

Villanova is number 6 RPI in the way early LP RPI calcs.
I expect they’ll be top 10 in Massey tomorrow.

Farfromgeneva wrote: ↑Sat Mar 11, 2023 8:57 pm Not sure what to do w 3-4 cuse.

Syracuse's 3 wins are against teams with records of 1-4, 2-4, and 0-7. At 3-4 with those 3 being their 3 wins T(he highest ranking of hose 3 teams in the Massey rankings is 34) it's hard to imagine I'll spend much time trying to slot hem into my top 25.

Are the 4 losses to good teams? Yes. And have they played well in some of those losses? Sure. But at the end of the day you have to hang some wins on some good teams.

CU77 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 3:12 pmmassey.jpg

Why does 2-3 perennially overrated Georgetown deserve to be that high or even in the top 20? They even struggled to beat a weakened Richmond squad. There are numerous teams that should be well ahead of them

ICGrad wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 4:08 pm

Farfromgeneva wrote: ↑Sat Mar 11, 2023 8:57 pm Not sure what to do w 3-4 cuse.

Syracuse's 3 wins are against teams with records of 1-4, 2-4, and 0-7. At 3-4 with those 3 being their 3 wins T(he highest ranking of hose 3 teams in the Massey rankings is 34) it's hard to imagine I'll spend much time trying to slot hem into my top 25.

Are the 4 losses to good teams? Yes. And have they played well in some of those losses? Sure. But at the end of the day you have to hang some wins on some good teams.

Well yes the profile of body of work to date isn’t great. Then I watch Hiltz, Thompson, Leo, Kirst, Spallina, Rosa, etc plus an elite goalie and have to think they’re going to win the middle games and some more here.

blue angels wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 4:18 pm Why does 2-3 perennially overrated Georgetown deserve to be that high or even in the top 20? They even struggled to beat a weakened Richmond squad. There are numerous teams that should be well ahead of them

Massey uses a "hot start", that is, how teams did last year is the baseline, and that's still mixed in.

You can argue for a "cold start" (all teams equal), but it generally does not perform as well because it ignores useful info.

Note that RPI and the old laxpower ratings (which you can still find here) are all "cold start". Georgetown is #20 in the laxpower ratings.

How much to discount last season's results is one of many things the designer of a "hot start" rating system must decide upon.

The "hot start" lax Elo ratings at lacrossereference.com have Georgetown at #3:
https://lacrossereference.com/stats/elo-d1-men/

See their discussion of discounting the prior season (among other choices that need to be made) here:
https://lacrossereference.com/2017/04/2 ... -lacrosse/

10stone5 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 11, 2023 9:55 pm Villanova is number 6 RPI in the way early LP RPI calcs.
I expect they’ll be top 10 in Massey tomorrow.

+1

NovaLax17 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 11:18 pm

10stone5 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 11, 2023 9:55 pm Villanova is number 6 RPI in the way early LP RPI calcs.
I expect they’ll be top 10 in Massey tomorrow.

+1

Just don’t take a unexpected L to Prov or Marquette, who are capable teams, and should be looking good for a At large if they at least split w GT/Denver.

Farfromgeneva wrote: ↑Mon Mar 13, 2023 6:39 am

NovaLax17 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 11:18 pm

10stone5 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 11, 2023 9:55 pm Villanova is number 6 RPI in the way early LP RPI calcs.
I expect they’ll be top 10 in Massey tomorrow.

+1

Just don’t take a unexpected L to Prov or Marquette, who are capable teams, and should be looking good for a At large if they at least split w GT/Denver.

Denver, Georgetown and Villanova are not losing to Marquette or Providence. Not gonna happen.

Creasedive wrote: ↑Mon Mar 13, 2023 7:48 am

Farfromgeneva wrote: ↑Mon Mar 13, 2023 6:39 am

NovaLax17 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 11:18 pm

10stone5 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 11, 2023 9:55 pm Villanova is number 6 RPI in the way early LP RPI calcs.
I expect they’ll be top 10 in Massey tomorrow.

+1

Just don’t take a unexpected L to Prov or Marquette, who are capable teams, and should be looking good for a At large if they at least split w GT/Denver.

Denver, Georgetown and Villanova are not losing to Marquette or Providence. Not gonna happen.

Marquette did beat Mich...then lost to Bellarmine, but are younger and have a newer coach from Yale who may be a good one (TBD). That level of confidence is how one gets punched in the face.

Farfromgeneva wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 4:20 pm

ICGrad wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 4:08 pm

Farfromgeneva wrote: ↑Sat Mar 11, 2023 8:57 pm Not sure what to do w 3-4 cuse.

Syracuse's 3 wins are against teams with records of 1-4, 2-4, and 0-7. At 3-4 with those 3 being their 3 wins T(he highest ranking of hose 3 teams in the Massey rankings is 34) it's hard to imagine I'll spend much time trying to slot hem into my top 25.

Are the 4 losses to good teams? Yes. And have they played well in some of those losses? Sure. But at the end of the day you have to hang some wins on some good teams.

Well yes the profile of body of work to date isn’t great. Then I watch Hiltz, Thompson, Leo, Kirst, Spallina, Rosa, etc plus an elite goalie and have to think they’re going to win the middle games and some more here.

Cuse will win their next three games handily . Indeed have a handful of young good offensive players brought in by Desko so team no longer overly reliant on any one talent ie Dordevic (take a bow DMC) but outside Hopkins they haven't been as close in the other three losses as brilliant goalie play by Mark has masked other deficiencies. Mark has been that impactful , put him on team last year and their record flips . In my eyes Desko did more with less (mainly due to poor recruiting classes and poor use of transfer portal) and Gait has so far done less with more ( Desko last recruiting class which was excellent and some excellent pickups in portal ) . Hopefully Mark will stay another year .Cuse will be very good again if they keep their recruiting classes come through .

Not sure why OSU is still getting love from media. Got a lot of mileage from UNC win but that should have faded as they have gotten blown out by the three other good teams that have faced.

stupefied wrote: ↑Mon Mar 13, 2023 10:50 am

Farfromgeneva wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 4:20 pm

ICGrad wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 4:08 pm

Farfromgeneva wrote: ↑Sat Mar 11, 2023 8:57 pm Not sure what to do w 3-4 cuse.

Syracuse's 3 wins are against teams with records of 1-4, 2-4, and 0-7. At 3-4 with those 3 being their 3 wins T(he highest ranking of hose 3 teams in the Massey rankings is 34) it's hard to imagine I'll spend much time trying to slot hem into my top 25.

Are the 4 losses to good teams? Yes. And have they played well in some of those losses? Sure. But at the end of the day you have to hang some wins on some good teams.

Well yes the profile of body of work to date isn’t great. Then I watch Hiltz, Thompson, Leo, Kirst, Spallina, Rosa, etc plus an elite goalie and have to think they’re going to win the middle games and some more here.

Cuse will win their next three games handily . Indeed have a handful of young good offensive players brought in by Desko so team no longer overly reliant on any one talent ie Dordevic (take a bow DMC) but outside Hopkins they haven't been as close in the other three losses as brilliant goalie play by Mark has masked other deficiencies. Mark has been that impactful , put him on team last year and their record flips . In my eyes Desko did more with less (mainly due to poor recruiting classes and poor use of transfer portal) and Gait has so far done less with more ( Desko last recruiting class which was excellent and some excellent pickups in portal ) . Hopefully Mark will stay another year .Cuse will be very good again if they keep their recruiting classes come through .

Not sure why OSU is still getting love from media. Got a lot of mileage from UNC win but that should have faded as they have gotten blown out by the three other good teams that have faced.

I don’t know. Hofstra and Hobart are both better than their records right now. I agree about St Bonaventure.

If anything Hofstra record is padded as their wins are against weak teams , they have lost to rather average Merrimack and Navy . Id be shocked if they can hold Cuse offense to less than 12 goals and highly doubt Hof O could hit double digits against Mark . Maybe weather affects play somewhat but expect Cuse to match whatever line is. Hobart offense starts off every game fast but that team just can't sustain their play, offense peers out and their D is weak. St Bonnies should allow liberal subbing . Cuse may not be in top twenty but don't see them losing to any in that group either

1UVA
ND
Maryland
PSU
Duke
Cornell
Rutgers
Yale
UNC

10 Loyola
Nova
Hop
Jacksonville
Army
Penn
Michigan
Delaware
Denver
Gtown
Cuse

stupefied wrote: ↑Mon Mar 13, 2023 10:50 am

Cuse will win their next three games handily ...

I agree; the issue is the 5 games after that: ND, Princeton, UNC, Virginia, Duke. They'd have to win 2 of those 5 just to finish 8-7, and there's no conference tourney to bolster their record after that.

They may well need to finish 9-6 to have a realistic chance at the tourney, which means winning 3 of those final 5 games. A very tall order. Not undoable, but certainly no gimme.

Of course, maybe they'll ride the wave of the insane ACC RPI and 8-7 will be enough.

Finster wrote: ↑Mon Mar 13, 2023 10:58 am

stupefied wrote: ↑Mon Mar 13, 2023 10:50 am

Farfromgeneva wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 4:20 pm

ICGrad wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 4:08 pm

Farfromgeneva wrote: ↑Sat Mar 11, 2023 8:57 pm Not sure what to do w 3-4 cuse.

Syracuse's 3 wins are against teams with records of 1-4, 2-4, and 0-7. At 3-4 with those 3 being their 3 wins T(he highest ranking of hose 3 teams in the Massey rankings is 34) it's hard to imagine I'll spend much time trying to slot hem into my top 25.

Are the 4 losses to good teams? Yes. And have they played well in some of those losses? Sure. But at the end of the day you have to hang some wins on some good teams.

Well yes the profile of body of work to date isn’t great. Then I watch Hiltz, Thompson, Leo, Kirst, Spallina, Rosa, etc plus an elite goalie and have to think they’re going to win the middle games and some more here.

Cuse will win their next three games handily . Indeed have a handful of young good offensive players brought in by Desko so team no longer overly reliant on any one talent ie Dordevic (take a bow DMC) but outside Hopkins they haven't been as close in the other three losses as brilliant goalie play by Mark has masked other deficiencies. Mark has been that impactful , put him on team last year and their record flips . In my eyes Desko did more with less (mainly due to poor recruiting classes and poor use of transfer portal) and Gait has so far done less with more ( Desko last recruiting class which was excellent and some excellent pickups in portal ) . Hopefully Mark will stay another year .Cuse will be very good again if they keep their recruiting classes come through .

Not sure why OSU is still getting love from media. Got a lot of mileage from UNC win but that should have faded as they have gotten blown out by the three other good teams that have faced.

I don’t know. Hofstra and Hobart are both better than their records right now. I agree about St Bonaventure.

We know and got to Mark last year, LIU fan will make excuses but he's known to Bart. Problem is our D/Goalie so it's going to be first one to 25 potentially.

https://hwsathletics.com/sports/mens-la ... core/28010

All's I know when it comes to Kraus Simmons either get on the OG Orange and Purple bus or get a fish upside the head!

stupefied wrote: ↑Mon Mar 13, 2023 11:24 am If anything Hofstra record is padded as their wins are against weak teams , they have lost to rather average Merrimack and Navy . Id be shocked if they can hold Cuse offense to less than 12 goals and highly doubt Hof O could hit double digits against Mark . Maybe weather affects play somewhat but expect Cuse to match whatever line is. Hobart offense starts off every game fast but that team just can't sustain their play, offense peers out and their D is weak. St Bonnies should allow liberal subbing . Cuse may not be in top twenty but don't see them losing to any in that group either

Alright, you get an egg and trout combo coming to the dome! And I don't mean the whatever JMA is Carrier dome!

stupefied wrote: ↑Mon Mar 13, 2023 11:45 am 1UVA
ND
Maryland
PSU
Duke
Cornell
Rutgers
Yale
UNC

10 Loyola
Nova
Hop
Jacksonville
Army
Penn
Michigan
Delaware
Denver
Gtown
Cuse

I'm kind of wondering about Nova at 9 and sliding everyone down a notch from there.

Farfromgeneva wrote: ↑Mon Mar 13, 2023 1:20 pm

stupefied wrote: ↑Mon Mar 13, 2023 11:24 am If anything Hofstra record is padded as their wins are against weak teams , they have lost to rather average Merrimack and Navy . Id be shocked if they can hold Cuse offense to less than 12 goals and highly doubt Hof O could hit double digits against Mark . Maybe weather affects play somewhat but expect Cuse to match whatever line is. Hobart offense starts off every game fast but that team just can't sustain their play, offense peers out and their D is weak. St Bonnies should allow liberal subbing . Cuse may not be in top twenty but don't see them losing to any in that group either

Alright, you get an egg and trout combo coming to the dome! And I don't mean the whatever JMA is Carrier dome!

Lol, same .