LaxPower Back-Up Stick

Good point. The optimistic picks work. The pessimistic picks works... but only for the teams picked by the relevant Poll-er. Hmmmm. BRB!

Alright, re-doing my most pessimistic picks though... I think many of these are less "pessimistic" than "oops"s.

Poll-ers who have Forum Poll Top ranked teams as un-ranked within their Poll are:
oldtimelax without #6 Tufts
Dehunt - #8 York
Dr. Pretorious - #8 York and #10 Wesleyan
Harco2019 - #9 Gettysburg
MrLax2U with #10 Wesleyan and #11 F&M

and

6 Point Differential:
Dehuntshigwa’es with W&L at #16
laxrules with Gettysburg at #15
overandback with Denison at #13
Zonesurgeon with Cabrini at #11

Matnum PI wrote: ↑Thu Feb 06, 2020 8:21 pm Alright, re-doing my most pessimistic picks though... I think many of these are less "pessimistic" than "oops"s.

Poll-ers who have Forum Poll Top ranked teams as un-ranked within their Poll are:
oldtimelax without #6 Tufts
Dehunt - #8 York
Dr. Pretorious - #8 York and #10 Wesleyan
Harco2019 - #9 Gettysburg
MrLax2U with #10 Wesleyan and #11 F&M

and

6 Point Differential:
Dehuntshigwa’es with W&L at #16
laxrules with Gettysburg at #15
overandback with Denison at #13
Zonesurgeon with Cabrini at #11

Not ranking York was clearly an oversight on my part; should have slotted them somewhere around 9/10 and bumped everyone else down accordingly. I only went about 15 deep with my rankings; Wesleyan would have been in the mix had I gone 20. I’ll make sure to do the full 20 selections from here on out. My bad.

15 is fine. as is 10 or 20 or 25. as is the York oversight. We have a long road ahead of us to find our groove.

I think I've already said this but... I'm really looking forward to the season starting. looking forward to moving away from conjecture and towards Ws and Ls.

DeepPocket wrote: ↑Thu Feb 06, 2020 8:00 pm

Matnum PI wrote: ↑Thu Feb 06, 2020 7:52 pm The most pessimistic picks were:

6 Point Differential:
Dehuntshigwa’es with W&L at #16
laxrules with Gettysburg at #15
overandback with Denison at #13
Zonesurgeon with Cabrini at #11

Dehunt has York unranked. I would say that’s more pessimistic given the #8 poll

My fat fingers screwed up,I sent a second list where I tried to correct it.... I ranked York 17 one behind W&L but wasn’t posted, they went with the first list...I’ll have it corrected this weekend. DeepPocket had a nice retort justifying York’s position. I need at least one game with the eye test before I rank them higher. I’m still not convinced they are as good as last year.

Matnum PI wrote: ↑Thu Feb 06, 2020 2:15 pm Not sure if someone already posted this so... Lax Mag D3 Rankings.

2. SALISBURY SEA GULLS
Salisbury needs little introduction, having won 12 NCAA titles and 22 CAC crowns under Jim Berkman, the owner of 566 career wins. Returning All-Americans are faceoff man Brett Malamphy, defenseman Brad Apgar and attackman Josh Melton. Salisbury also expects a step forward from juinor attackman Cross Ferrara.

Missing 3 PI - Salisbury returns not only AA's Malamphy, Apgar & Melton... The Gulls also return 2nd team AA's Murphy (returning to natural position at LSM), Griek (SSM) & Ferrara was an HM AA (Attack)

My Week 2 POLL didn’t change for #1 through 12. W&L and LYN lost to CAC teams but put on good showings; have excellent coaching and will improve as their seasons progress. Expect to see both in May.

Above #12 are Shout Outs so please no offense for any teams not listed. #13 is F&M; curious to see how their Attack performs.

#14 is Stevens; something’s going on there for Salisbury to get on a bus to Hoboken for a game. Coulda scheduled it on a HS field in south Jersey.

#15 is CNU with an energetic, young coach leading an upcoming program.

#16 is Illinois Wesleyan. Big, tough guys; Run n Gunslingers. Good luck to the Titans.

Salisbury stays #6. They're a talented, tough group of individuals still looking for a QB to take charge. Ellis had brilliant moments in goal but lost focus at the end with LYN scoring 3 quick ones. No team should score double digits against the Gulls and LYN scored 10. Lacrosse is a game of finesse and Salisbury can play it like football. They don't take cheap shots but they also don't hesitate to lower the shoulder. During the game three of their starters limped or skipped of the field. There is a reason NFL halfbacks have very short careers. If Kness hadn't been lost to injury, someone tell me how the 2019 season would have ended.

Changes to my ballot:

• York up to #3 after a very impressive defensive performance (this was the game I was able to watch this weekend)

• W&L and Lynchburg fall out of the Top 25 due to being 0-1: have a very good chance of bouncing back if they can level their records next week, but until then, no losses, no wins > one loss, no wins this early in the season. Cortland and Middlebury take the now open Top 25 slots.

• Hampden Sydney gets in at #25 due to a) winning yesterday, and b) my accidentally voting Lynchburg twice last week

I watched both Salisbury/Lynchburg and W&L/ YORK games. Neither W&L, YORK, or Lynchburg are top ten teams this year. They are not in that elite group. YORK is the best of the 3 but they don’t have Sasso as a Fogo who was huge for them last year and while their mids are good the attack group is just ok. W&L’s overall D with so many new faces at this moment has issues. Gave up 3 EMO goals, questions at ssdm, and as of yet no one who can draw the slide. It was a game until the 4th qtr. Both York and W&L are down a notch from last year until we see substantial improvement. Lynchburg fought hard but I’m afraid to say the Gulls May have one of their special teams this year with the best Fogo in the country. Gulls have NO weaknesses. Lynchburg and YORK are legit 11-20 teams...Thought they played hard in the 4th when the outcome was already certain.Fire away boyz
Btw, 6x6 you have York in the 3 slot, they wouldn’t even finish in the top 3 in the NESCAC this year.

Changes to my ballot:

Salisbury from #2 to #1

That is all.

I don’t count being 0-0 against anybody, but I also can’t discount Salisbury’s 2-0 record, how complete they’ve looked, or their win over Lynchburg which, from what I read on the game thread, was more lopsided than the final score indicates.

I find it more indicative of who Salisbury is than who Lynchburg is. And Salisbury is who we thought they were...

No change to York or W&L.

York beat a team of lower rank who, by my poll, they SHOULD beat. So by my logic, how would that make them jump anyone who hasn’t played yet, and who I also rank better?

Same logic applied to W&L not dropping. They, by my poll SHOULD lose to York, and did so by less than 5 goals.

Again, same logic for Lynchburg. They were playing a team I had ranked # 2, and I didn’t have them anywhere near that. So, why would losing by 6 to the # 2 hurt them when compared teams who haven’t seen their first faceoff yet?

Weren’t these the expected results? (They were by my poll)

Polls due at midnight. I have submissions from:

DeepPocket
Dehuntshigwa’es
dingdongdman
Dr. Pretorious
Harco2019
MrLax2U
Noz
overandback
Redbirds
SixBySix
SpiritInTheStick
Unknown Participant

DeepPocket wrote: ↑Sun Feb 09, 2020 7:59 pm York beat a team of lower rank who, by my poll, they SHOULD beat. So by my logic, how would that make them jump anyone who hasn’t played yet, and who I also rank better?

Same logic applied to W&L not dropping. They, by my poll SHOULD lose to York, and did so by less than 5 goals.

I think the difference between us may be that I have less confidence in my preseason positions--I don't think the initial list was sound enough to create any kind of "should beat" or "should lose to" hierarchy. Once more games are played, I might use that kind of analysis as the previous week's poll will be based on more data. FWIW, York moved up because I was able to watch the game live and was impressed by their defense and the question marks I had for them at attack diminished.

Anyway, this wouldn't be any fun if there weren't disagreements. Fortunately, there are games that get played to find out who was right!

SixBySix wrote: ↑Mon Feb 10, 2020 6:50 pm I think the difference between us may be that I have less confidence in my preseason positions--I don't think the initial list was sound enough to create any kind of "should beat" or "should lose to" hierarchy. Once more games are played, I might use that kind of analysis as the previous week's poll will be based on more data. FWIW, York moved up because I was able to watch the game live and was impressed by their defense and the question marks I had for them at attack diminished.

Anyway, this wouldn't be any fun if there weren't disagreements. Fortunately, there are games that get played to find out who was right!

For me it isn’t a matter of confidence, it’s a matter of operating off the baseline that I took the time to create. (Otherwise why do it?)

If you’re not working off of some sort of a baseline of who you think is better than who coming in (however biased), it will be pretty tough to substantiate any sort of movement among these teams (many of whom will likely never play each other) outside of the odd key injuries or upsets.

I get the whole “seeing strength in a area where you had questions” improving your impression of a squad. But If someone “looked good” in their game, they advance over teams who you haven’t had a chance to analyze? That just seems like the first teams to play (within a reasonable caliber) will be your top teams.

York, Salisbury and to a lessor degree W&L and Lynchburg are teams I have some familiarity with, so this week was simpler for me than say a hypothetical Stevens vs Wesleyan, where I have little to no knowledge. But if the one ranked better in my polls losses, it will drop, and the winner will improve, because this is the baseline I’ve created to operate from. (And based on these results is where affirmations will sculpt confidence, the opposite will destroy it )

These things are always very interesting. Some folks are trying to predict the season end positions as opposed to where they are now, and people are using all manner of reasoning for their conclusions. It will be fun to watch unfold.

BTW- This is an example of (over)confidence in predictions-

Dehuntshigwa’es wrote: ↑Sun Feb 09, 2020 7:02 pm Btw, 6x6 you have York in the 3 slot, they wouldn’t even finish in the top 3 in the NESCAC this year.

Knowing where teams would be slotted four months from now IF they were hypothetically in a different conference, against teams one hasn’t even seen play yet is the kind of prognostication that I have a chuckle over.

One thing that is undeniable is where York would slot RIGHT NOW if they were in the ODAC... (you said fire away Dehunt)

DR.P & DeHun... No Love for York

Nothing But Net wrote: ↑Tue Feb 11, 2020 11:50 am DR.P & DeHun... No Love for York

I do not think that is the correct poll. It is the same as last week and doesn't have some of the changes I made and I assume Dehunt made. Dehunt mentioned that he mistakenly forgot to add York last week. The chances of that happening again seem pretty slim so I assume when the correct list is released it will look different.

ah23, added you to the Poll and e-mailed you the password. This is where you submit your poll. By midnight every Monday.

BTW- This is an example of (over)confidence in predictions-
Dehuntshigwa’es wrote: ↑
Btw, 6x6 you have York in the 3 slot, they wouldn’t even finish in the top 3 in the NESCAC this year.
Knowing where teams would be slotted four months from now IF they were hypothetically in a different conference, against teams one hasn’t even seen play yet is the kind of prognostication that I have a chuckle over.

One thing that is undeniable is where York would slot RIGHT NOW if they were in the ODAC... (you said fire away Dehunt)

Don’t be over cooking my grits DeepPocket. DP in fact not just our poll but every national poll would have York placing below Amherst, Williams and Tufts therefore my comments that you may take exception to. According to your own polling methodology you could not place York higher than 4th in the NESCAC ...DP my rationale for the poll is similar to your’s in that my initial poll is simply a baseline to work off of, that I’ll adjust as the season progresses. I’d have to agree that York in all likelihood would win the ODAC or at least be in the final. As a W&L fan unless they grab a win against Denison, F&M or Gettysburg they may see themselves outside the top 20. ( Again those higher ranked teams are suppose to win but when you have that many shots at higher ranked teams if you are any good you have to steal a game)

6x6; W&L doesn’t even make it in your top25 despite all the forum pollsters and national pollsters recognition in ranking them.

I'm looking forward to this weekend when the D3 Men Season starts for real. i.e. Not just Salisbury and Lynchburg.

Looks good.