All things CoronaVirus

[jhu72]

Earliest US COVID death occurred in California on February 6th. Weeks earlier than previously thought. Similar cases are likely to be found by coroners in Washington and New York.

Am betting this comes as no surprise to you, 72.
I don't believe anything about the "beginning date", if you will, of all this. I'd bet it all started much, much earlier than what we've been led to believe. Had to have, IMHO.

Not sure how "much, much earlier" you mean DMac.
The exponential function of the virus, the spread by asymptomatic carriers, doesn't require many seeds to become quite quickly huge #'s within weeks.

I'd be willing to bet that we had first seeds in December, prior to this being recognized as an epidemic level threat even in China. A lot of people traveling every day. Certainly seeds in early January...which would mean deaths weeks later. Just not as noticeable given normal flu deaths covering the beginning.

But it sure didn't become a problem only in March....

I would not be surprised to see it pushed into January in the US.

Don't really see how this materially changes anything regarding the timeline of the infection moving into the US. Earliest known traveler with the disease is still mid - January. Would have to find a death or a case earlier than mid-January to change the overall earliest infection date in the US. All this report shows is there was community transmitted infection earlier than we thought previously.

Sure, but a few weeks earlier also doesn't make a hill of beans difference in terms of how this was handled.

This a matter of what did we know and when did we know it?
And when did we act in response to what we knew at each step?

What did this Administration know and when did they know it?
At each step, as knowledge grew?

Obviously, you can't know what you didn't know. All actions still remain predicated on what was known and have to be judged in that light.

[MDlaxfan76]

Earliest US COVID death occurred in California on February 6th. Weeks earlier than previously thought. Similar cases are likely to be found by coroners in Washington and New York.

Am betting this comes as no surprise to you, 72.
I don't believe anything about the "beginning date", if you will, of all this. I'd bet it all started much, much earlier than what we've been led to believe. Had to have, IMHO.

Not sure how "much, much earlier" you mean DMac.
The exponential function of the virus, the spread by asymptomatic carriers, doesn't require many seeds to become quite quickly huge #'s within weeks.

I'd be willing to bet that we had first seeds in December, prior to this being recognized as an epidemic level threat even in China. A lot of people traveling every day. Certainly seeds in early January...which would mean deaths weeks later. Just not as noticeable given normal flu deaths covering the beginning.

But it sure didn't become a problem only in March....

I would not be surprised to see it pushed into January in the US.

Don't really see how this materially changes anything regarding the timeline of the infection moving into the US. Earliest known traveler with the disease is still mid - January. Would have to find a death or a case earlier than mid-January to change the overall earliest infection date in the US. All this report shows is there was community transmitted infection earlier than we thought previously.

Sure, but a few weeks earlier also doesn't make a hill of beans difference in terms of how this was handled.

This a matter of what did we know and when did we know it?
And when did we act in response to what we knew at each step?

What did this Administration know and when did they know it?
At each step, as knowledge grew?

Obviously, you can't know what you didn't know. All actions still remain predicated on what was known and have to be judged in that light.

That's my logic too.

Now, if we found that the Administration knew we had CV-19 in the US in say December, and that it was spreading rapidly, and that people were going to die from it...well, that certainly would be upsetting.

But we do know for a certainty that the Administration knew it was here, that community spread had begun, and that many people were going to die if insufficient action was taken...all in January. Yet what was being projected from the biggest megaphone in the world? What were the actions being taken to prepare for the inevitable surge?

Seems pretty straightforward to me.

[DMac]

I'll drop one much and just go with much earlier, 72.

Even with this Nov. 17 case identified, doctors can't be certain the individual is "patient zero," or the very first individual to have been infected with SARS-CoV-2, and there's a chance even earlier cases will be found, the SCMP reported.

This is what I wonder, when was patient zero and how far had it spread (lot of world traveling going on daily in today's world) before there was an inkling there was any threat out there (virus wise)?
Not taking this article as the gospel...https://www.livescience.com/first-case- ... found.html

[6ftstick]

Earliest US COVID death occurred in California on February 6th. Weeks earlier than previously thought. Similar cases are likely to be found by coroners in Washington and New York.

Am betting this comes as no surprise to you, 72.
I don't believe anything about the "beginning date", if you will, of all this. I'd bet it all started much, much earlier than what we've been led to believe. Had to have, IMHO.

Not sure how "much, much earlier" you mean DMac.
The exponential function of the virus, the spread by asymptomatic carriers, doesn't require many seeds to become quite quickly huge #'s within weeks.

I'd be willing to bet that we had first seeds in December, prior to this being recognized as an epidemic level threat even in China. A lot of people traveling every day. Certainly seeds in early January...which would mean deaths weeks later. Just not as noticeable given normal flu deaths covering the beginning.

But it sure didn't become a problem only in March....

I would not be surprised to see it pushed into January in the US.

Don't really see how this materially changes anything regarding the timeline of the infection moving into the US. Earliest known traveler with the disease is still mid - January. Would have to find a death or a case earlier than mid-January to change the overall earliest infection date in the US. All this report shows is there was community transmitted infection earlier than we thought previously.

Sure, but a few weeks earlier also doesn't make a hill of beans difference in terms of how this was handled.

This a matter of what did we know and when did we know it?
And when did we act in response to what we knew at each step?

What did this Administration know and when did they know it?
At each step, as knowledge grew?

Obviously, you can't know what you didn't know. All actions still remain predicated on what was known and have to be judged in that light.

That's my logic too.

Now, if we found that the Administration knew we had CV-19 in the US in say December, and that it was spreading rapidly, and that people were going to die from it...well, that certainly would be upsetting.

But we do know for a certainty that the Administration knew it was here, that community spread had begun, and that many people were going to die if insufficient action was taken...all in January. Yet what was being projected from the biggest megaphone in the world? What were the actions being taken to prepare for the inevitable surge?

Seems pretty straightforward to me.

You're full of crap

During a February 29 broadcast on NBC's "Today Show," Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said that at that time the government was still not advising people to change their daily habits to avoid the coronavirus pandemic.

Pelosi walked around San Francisco’s Chinatown during the last week of February, visiting businesses owned by Asian Americans.

“That’s what we’re trying to do today is to say everything is fine here,” Pelosi said at the time. “Come because precautions have been taken. The city is on top of the situation.”

[CU88]

There is always a tweet.


Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump

All the governors are already backing off of the Ebola quarantines. Bad decision that will lead to more mayhem.

10:52 AM · Oct 28, 2014·

IMPOTUS = Liar in Chief

[CU88]

There’s Been a Spike in People Dying at Home in Several Cities. That Suggests Coronavirus Deaths Are Higher Than Reported.

Coronavirus death counts are based on positive tests and driven by hospital deaths. But data from major metropolitan areas shows a spike in at-home deaths, prompting one expert to say current numbers were just “the tip of the iceberg.”



https://www.propublica.org/article/ther ... ce=twitter

[MDlaxfan76]

Earliest US COVID death occurred in California on February 6th. Weeks earlier than previously thought. Similar cases are likely to be found by coroners in Washington and New York.

Am betting this comes as no surprise to you, 72.
I don't believe anything about the "beginning date", if you will, of all this. I'd bet it all started much, much earlier than what we've been led to believe. Had to have, IMHO.

Not sure how "much, much earlier" you mean DMac.
The exponential function of the virus, the spread by asymptomatic carriers, doesn't require many seeds to become quite quickly huge #'s within weeks.

I'd be willing to bet that we had first seeds in December, prior to this being recognized as an epidemic level threat even in China. A lot of people traveling every day. Certainly seeds in early January...which would mean deaths weeks later. Just not as noticeable given normal flu deaths covering the beginning.

But it sure didn't become a problem only in March....

I would not be surprised to see it pushed into January in the US.

Don't really see how this materially changes anything regarding the timeline of the infection moving into the US. Earliest known traveler with the disease is still mid - January. Would have to find a death or a case earlier than mid-January to change the overall earliest infection date in the US. All this report shows is there was community transmitted infection earlier than we thought previously.

Sure, but a few weeks earlier also doesn't make a hill of beans difference in terms of how this was handled.

This a matter of what did we know and when did we know it?
And when did we act in response to what we knew at each step?

What did this Administration know and when did they know it?
At each step, as knowledge grew?

Obviously, you can't know what you didn't know. All actions still remain predicated on what was known and have to be judged in that light.

That's my logic too.

Now, if we found that the Administration knew we had CV-19 in the US in say December, and that it was spreading rapidly, and that people were going to die from it...well, that certainly would be upsetting.

But we do know for a certainty that the Administration knew it was here, that community spread had begun, and that many people were going to die if insufficient action was taken...all in January. Yet what was being projected from the biggest megaphone in the world? What were the actions being taken to prepare for the inevitable surge?

Seems pretty straightforward to me.

You're full of dump

During a February 29 broadcast on NBC's "Today Show," Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said that at that time the government was still not advising people to change their daily habits to avoid the coronavirus pandemic.

Pelosi walked around San Francisco’s Chinatown during the last week of February, visiting businesses owned by Asian Americans.

“That’s what we’re trying to do today is to say everything is fine here,” Pelosi said at the time. “Come because precautions have been taken. The city is on top of the situation.”

So, bad advice from the Administration? From Pelosi?

Did we not know there were cases in the US, did we not know there was community spread, did we not know this was the same virus that was crushing Wuhan?

All known in January.

Scroll forward as the "what did we know" grew...and grew...and grew...

A lot of mistakes. Regardless of political party. Some ignorant, some willful ignorance.

For a recent example, Georgia Gov Kemp opening up massage parlors and beauty parlors and tattoo parlors on Friday claimed back on what April 1 that he had just learned in the prior 24 hours that the virus spreads from asymptomatic carriers...who knew???

And that's the guy making the call for Georgia?

[MDlaxfan76]

There’s Been a Spike in People Dying at Home in Several Cities. That Suggests Coronavirus Deaths Are Higher Than Reported.

Coronavirus death counts are based on positive tests and driven by hospital deaths. But data from major metropolitan areas shows a spike in at-home deaths, prompting one expert to say current numbers were just “the tip of the iceberg.”



https://www.propublica.org/article/ther ... ce=twitter

Happened in Wuhan too...people were scared to go to the hospital...scared to let authorities know they were infected, scared their family would be split up.

[jhu72]

I'll drop one much and just go with much earlier, 72.

Even with this Nov. 17 case identified, doctors can't be certain the individual is "patient zero," or the very first individual to have been infected with SARS-CoV-2, and there's a chance even earlier cases will be found, the SCMP reported.

This is what I wonder, when was patient zero and how far had it spread (lot of world traveling going on daily in today's world) before there was an inkling there was any threat out there (virus wise)?
Not taking this article as the gospel...https://www.livescience.com/first-case- ... found.html

I assume you mean worldwide patient zero. I have no idea, but would not be surprised if it was October. I also would not hang my hat on Wuhan being the place of origin.

[DMac]

Yup, worldwide....then how fast did it spread before anyone was aware there was/is a problem.
Will be interesting how far back when it gets all figured out (which I believe it will).

[seacoaster]

To the extent any one cares:

New polling:

@MorningConsult: 76% say social distancing should continue; 14% say it should stop

@Reuters: 72% say people should stay home until health officials say it's safe

@NavigatorSurvey: 62% worried social distancing will end too soon; 26% worried it will go on too long

Pretty good majorities suggesting that caution is the appropriate step.

[jhu72]

Yup, worldwide....then how fast did it spread before anyone was aware there was/is a problem.
Will be interesting how far back when it gets all figured out (which I believe it will).

Yup.

[jhu72]

To the extent any one cares:

New polling:

@MorningConsult: 76% say social distancing should continue; 14% say it should stop

@Reuters: 72% say people should stay home until health officials say it's safe

@NavigatorSurvey: 62% worried social distancing will end too soon; 26% worried it will go on too long

Pretty good majorities suggesting that caution is the appropriate step.

Yup, and I bet not one of those 72-76% think they are being held at home against their will.

[Typical Lax Dad]

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01098-x

[ggait]

The data shows that "stay-at-home" produced social distancing results of about 75-80% in Colorado.

More lies. Stop lying.

You make a claim.....support it. Provide the "data". Everyone been "tested" in Colorado?

3R -- here's the data. Chill. Read. Learn.

Come on 3R -- you see enough of my posts on here to know that I am a data lover. Not a bull shirter or polemicist. If I post it, you know I have back up. Calling me a liar for no reason undermines your credibility not mine.

Very good that Gov. Polis is taking a data driven approach to this crisis. Also good how transparent he's being about the basis for the actions being taken.

Stay safe, ggait

[Gov. Polis] used data presented at an earlier briefing by the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment that showed the stay-at-home order and other measures put in place last month have led to social distancing in Colorado by about a 75% departure from normal.

Colorado School of Public Health Dean Dr. Jon Samet and CDPHE State Epidemiologist Dr. Rachel Herlihy said that the only way to keep the state from oversaturating the number of ICU beds in the state would be to keep those social distancing levels in the 65% range in the months ahead. Samet is among those leading the state modeling team, which also released its updated model Monday afternoon.

https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/c ... n-in-place

[seacoaster]

To the extent any one cares:

New polling:

@MorningConsult: 76% say social distancing should continue; 14% say it should stop

@Reuters: 72% say people should stay home until health officials say it's safe

@NavigatorSurvey: 62% worried social distancing will end too soon; 26% worried it will go on too long

Pretty good majorities suggesting that caution is the appropriate step.

Yup, and I bet not one of those 72-76% think they are being held at home against their will.

Well, to the extent public opinion is the vanguard, it sure suggests that the Governors' orders are appropriate and reasonable time, place and manner restrictions on the individual exercise of certain ordinary liberties. The interesting sub-issue would be to get polling or numbers on who the 14%, 18% and 26% support in the 2020 presidential election. It might reinforce the notion that the "reopen now demonstrations" are really in service to a candidate's electoral interests. Umm, you know what I mean?

[Typical Lax Dad]

The data shows that "stay-at-home" produced social distancing results of about 75-80% in Colorado.

More lies. Stop lying.

You make a claim.....support it. Provide the "data". Everyone been "tested" in Colorado?

3R -- here's the data. Chill. Read. Learn.

Come on 3R -- you see enough of my posts on here to know that I am a data lover. Not a bull shirter or polemicist. If I post it, you know I have back up. Calling me a liar for no reason undermines your credibility not mine.

Very good that Gov. Polis is taking a data driven approach to this crisis. Also good how transparent he's being about the basis for the actions being taken.

Stay safe, ggait

[Gov. Polis] used data presented at an earlier briefing by the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment that showed the stay-at-home order and other measures put in place last month have led to social distancing in Colorado by about a 75% departure from normal.

Colorado School of Public Health Dean Dr. Jon Samet and CDPHE State Epidemiologist Dr. Rachel Herlihy said that the only way to keep the state from oversaturating the number of ICU beds in the state would be to keep those social distancing levels in the 65% range in the months ahead. Samet is among those leading the state modeling team, which also released its updated model Monday afternoon.

https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/c ... n-in-place

3R believes that they are all lying. Everyone around the world are in on the lie. It a Rosemary's Baby type conspiracy.

[ggait]

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01098-x

I posted this Swedish interview the other day. The head health guy in Sweden is being pretty open about what he is doing and why. He still thinks it is the right plan.

He's waaaaaay behind at halftime. Up to 192 deaths per million pop -- that is 3X Denmark and 6X Norway. UW is projecting Sweden is still three weeks from the peak. UW projecting 9,200 deaths for Sweden -- which would be 900 deaths per million pop. For reference, Italy is currently at 415.

He's betting that he'll win in the second half -- because Sweden will have developed herd immunity sooner than other countries. Very much TBD.

[jhu72]

More news from Santa Clara County. Again not surprising.

[Typical Lax Dad]

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01098-x

I posted this Swedish interview the other day. The head health guy in Sweden is being pretty open about what he is doing and why. He still thinks it is the right plan.

He's waaaaaay behind at halftime. Up to 192 deaths per million pop -- that is 3X Denmark and 6X Norway. UW is projecting Sweden is still three weeks from the peak. UW projecting 9,200 deaths for Sweden -- which would be 900 deaths per million pop. For reference, Italy is currently at 415.

He's betting that he'll win in the second half -- because Sweden will have developed herd immunity sooner than other countries. Very much TBD.

Yes. It remains to be seen. The philosophy seems to be, "we will let some of these old people die off and hopefully the younger people will develop some immunity". The question seems to be what is an acceptable number of deaths?... for the greater good.