All things CoronaVirus

[MDlaxfan76]

Here's the NR article Trump just mentioned on how the media blew the ventilator story,
...with their "gotcha idiocy". Can't wait for the apology to Jared.

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/ ... ge-deftly/

I did seem to be an almost gleeful jump on Jared...though it really was a stupid way to say it, something he could have easily clarified in the ensuing period.

But, nah, we really did run out of ventilators in some hospitals, with all sorts of jury rig 'solutions' that put both patients in jeopardy. and there really was rationing of who got to go on the ventilator and who was just assumed to be a lost cause. That really did happen in some NYC hospitals.

But it certainly could have been way, way worse. Social distancing worked, thank god.

PPE? Testing?
Bueller, Bueller?

Which hospitals ran out of ventilators ? Which hospitals actually used the jury rigged solutions ?
Were there still spares in the NY stock pile ? Were the 2000 the Feds sent still in the NJ warehouse ?

According to the guy I was talking today, the hospital in Brooklyn where his Chief Medical Officer works.

Were there spares somewhere? Doesn't matter if they're not at the specific hospital where they're needed, when they're needed. You don't have 48 hours to react, to shift resources around.

Apparently splitting ventilators was widespread in NYC and environs. The Brooklyn situation did get to rationing who go put on and who didn't...I don't know how many hospitals went through that, but there are certainly reports of this having happened. Not for weeks and weeks, but they did get to that level.

Fortunately the curve flattened and the escalation eased off. But the medical staff is crushed.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Here's the NR article Trump just mentioned on how the media blew the ventilator story,
...with their "gotcha idiocy". Can't wait for the apology to Jared.

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/ ... ge-deftly/

I did seem to be an almost gleeful jump on Jared...though it really was a stupid way to say it, something he could have easily clarified in the ensuing period.

But, nah, we really did run out of ventilators in some hospitals, with all sorts of jury rig 'solutions' that put both patients in jeopardy. and there really was rationing of who got to go on the ventilator and who was just assumed to be a lost cause. That really did happen in some NYC hospitals.

But it certainly could have been way, way worse. Social distancing worked, thank god.

PPE? Testing?
Bueller, Bueller?

Which hospitals ran out of ventilators ? Which hospitals actually used the jury rigged solutions ?
Were there still spares in the NY stock pile ? Were the 2000 the Feds sent still in the NJ warehouse ?

According to the guy I was talking today, the hospital in Brooklyn where his Chief Medical Officer works.

Were there spares somewhere? Doesn't matter if they're not at the specific hospital where they're needed, when they're needed. You don't have 48 hours to react, to shift resources around.

Apparently splitting ventilators was widespread in NYC and environs. The Brooklyn situation did get to rationing who go put on and who didn't...I don't know how many hospitals went through that, but there are certainly reports of this having happened. Not for weeks and weeks, but they did get to that level.

Fortunately the curve flattened and the escalation eased off. But the medical staff is crushed.

Thank goodness we jumped on social distancing.

[RedFromMI]

Here's the NR article Trump just mentioned on how the media blew the ventilator story,
...with their "gotcha idiocy". Can't wait for the apology to Jared.

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/ ... ge-deftly/

I did seem to be an almost gleeful jump on Jared...though it really was a stupid way to say it, something he could have easily clarified in the ensuing period.

But, nah, we really did run out of ventilators in some hospitals, with all sorts of jury rig 'solutions' that put both patients in jeopardy. and there really was rationing of who got to go on the ventilator and who was just assumed to be a lost cause. That really did happen in some NYC hospitals.

But it certainly could have been way, way worse. Social distancing worked, thank god.

PPE? Testing?
Bueller, Bueller?

Which hospitals ran out of ventilators ? Which hospitals actually used the jury rigged solutions ?
Were there still spares in the NY stock pile ? Were the 2000 the Feds sent still in the NJ warehouse ?

According to the guy I was talking today, the hospital in Brooklyn where his Chief Medical Officer works.

Were there spares somewhere? Doesn't matter if they're not at the specific hospital where they're needed, when they're needed. You don't have 48 hours to react, to shift resources around.

Apparently splitting ventilators was widespread in NYC and environs. The Brooklyn situation did get to rationing who go put on and who didn't...I don't know how many hospitals went through that, but there are certainly reports of this having happened. Not for weeks and weeks, but they did get to that level.

Fortunately the curve flattened and the escalation eased off. But the medical staff is crushed.

Plus information from other doctors (including in other countries) have led to delaying intubation/ventlilation in favor of other measures to get O_2 levels up (very high levels of oxygen, patient on stomach, accepting lower blood saturation before putting patient on vent). That has changed the calculation of total ventilators needed. But certainly in some of the early hit areas that got overwhelmed there was a shortage...

[Nigel]

This is what those delusionals need to sign under oath and threat of perjury:

Could I get that amended for others that express their own personal freedoms that I may not agree with? Such as smokers, excessive drinkers, opioid abusers, obese people, etc etc etc....

[kramerica.inc]

Another perspective:

https://medium.com/@jbgeach/a-bold-plan ... 06b7eed29b

https://medium.com/@jbgeach/eight-reaso ... bb0bc94f00

https://medium.com/@jbgeach/changing-th ... 0cfc0ab4c3

Of course take it with a grain of salt, but an interesting perspective, none the less.

[wgdsr]

IF the reality, however small the chance, is that this is much more widespread than we think, and that asymptomatic carriers/spreaders are in much greater numbers and %s than is guessed... testing @ a scale of a few hundred thousand a day (500k? 1m?), testing the ones who are showing symptoms and then contact tracing... will have little to no effect on spread, unless we test just an ungodly amount of people. regularly.
there are a couple of nuggets re: that in the philly inquirer article today:
https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronav ... 00420.html
one of them is this
At a Boston homeless shelter, an outbreak prompted testing of 397 people. Of the 146 people who tested positive, none was considered symptomatic, CNN reported.
the outbreak was at a different shelter. it just prompted them to test their own. 146, almost all asymptomatic.

lot more of that kind of scientific guesswork on the fly out there, too.

here's out of los alamos, even if believing the low-ish numbers out of wuhan:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/tarahaelle ... ac3d8729a6
here's the los alamos study inside of that:
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/ ... 33-DM25287
r0 of 5.7 or 5.8. all is extrapolated, not unlike a lot of what r0 data (guesses) we think we know.

those are just a couple of data points. i could link dozens/hundreds of other items, quirks, studies.
here's an update on telluride from a couple days ago. most tests aren't in yet. a sparsely populated county (5.7 per sq mile):
https://reason.com/2020/04/17/antibody- ... nfections/

california's numbers as the gateway to china have never made any sense to me. there are many other data items that haven't made any sense.

if there is a r0 approaching 6 or anything similar to that, and asymptomatic/very mild cases are prevalent to some major degree (i.e. not 20 or even 40-50%)... pcr testing and contact tracing aren't making a dent. we will be needing to evaluate next steps. high, high transmissibility, lower than thought case fatality, asymptomatic carriers. what next?

that's just one scenario bc we do not know what this virus is all about. still. we either may not or don't know squat right now. other than stay away from people and wash your hands.

we need 10, 20, 30 whatever # of all-inclusive community anti-body tests. imo. how deep is the spread even with all this social distancing? the data that is coming back on this for now could be very biased or very wrong for any other number of reasons. but would explain a lot.

or, we could just keep testing people that come in with symptoms, if a test is available, if the patient shows up. do some contact tracing if we can find the people to do that. trace and test all the contacts if we can find them all, and of course if we have the tests. hope the r0 numbers aren't too far off, or hope it goes away. with the heat.

[Brooklyn]

This is what those delusionals need to sign under oath and threat of perjury:

Could I get that amended for others that express their own personal freedoms that I may not agree with? Such as smokers, excessive drinkers, opioid abusers, obese people, etc etc etc....

Doubtful that you can find fools who smoke, drink, or do drugs for political reasons but if you can, go for it.

[kramerica.inc]

Oil commodities trade in the negative today:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reu ... SKBN22301M

[CU77]

This is what those delusionals need to sign under oath and threat of perjury:

Could I get that amended for others that express their own personal freedoms that I may not agree with? Such as smokers, excessive drinkers, opioid abusers, obese people, etc etc etc....

Absolutely!

All should be denied treatment. Or pay sufficiently exorbitant insurance premiums.

[CU77]

We Are Living in a Failed State

The coronavirus didn’t break America. It revealed what was already broken.

by George Packer

When the virus came here, it found a country with serious underlying conditions, and it exploited them ruthlessly. Chronic ills—a corrupt political class, a sclerotic bureaucracy, a heartless economy, a divided and distracted public—had gone untreated for years. We had learned to live, uncomfortably, with the symptoms. It took the scale and intimacy of a pandemic to expose their severity—to shock Americans with the recognition that we are in the high-risk category.

The crisis demanded a response that was swift, rational, and collective. The United States reacted instead like Pakistan or Belarus—like a country with shoddy infrastructure and a dysfunctional government whose leaders were too corrupt or stupid to head off mass suffering. The administration squandered two irretrievable months to prepare. From the president came willful blindness, scapegoating, boasts, and lies. From his mouthpieces, conspiracy theories and miracle cures. A few senators and corporate executives acted quickly—not to prevent the coming disaster, but to profit from it. When a government doctor tried to warn the public of the danger, the White House took the mic and politicized the message.

Every morning in the endless month of March, Americans woke up to find themselves citizens of a failed state. With no national plan—no coherent instructions at all—families, schools, and offices were left to decide on their own whether to shut down and take shelter. When test kits, masks, gowns, and ventilators were found to be in desperately short supply, governors pleaded for them from the White House, which stalled, then called on private enterprise, which couldn’t deliver. States and cities were forced into bidding wars that left them prey to price gouging and corporate profiteering. Civilians took out their sewing machines to try to keep ill-equipped hospital workers healthy and their patients alive. Russia, Taiwan, and the United Nations sent humanitarian aid to the world’s richest power—a beggar nation in utter chaos.

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/ar ... ns/610261/

[6x6]

Dr Birx just said Florida has the best most informative state health care website of all 50 states.

Who’s the governor there again?

The same dude here: https://www.fox35orlando.com/news/6-of- ... n-paid-out

Yeah, Cuomo is doing so much better. You need more details?, I’ll put you in contact with my daughter who has also been waiting weeks.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/17/nyre ... elays.html

[old salt]

IF the reality, however small the chance, is that this is much more widespread than we think, and that asymptomatic carriers/spreaders are in much greater numbers and %s than is guessed... testing @ a scale of a few hundred thousand a day (500k? 1m?), testing the ones who are showing symptoms and then contact tracing... will have little to no effect on spread, unless we test just an ungodly amount of people. regularly.
there are a couple of nuggets re: that in the philly inquirer article today:
https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronav ... 00420.html
one of them is this
At a Boston homeless shelter, an outbreak prompted testing of 397 people. Of the 146 people who tested positive, none was considered symptomatic, CNN reported.
the outbreak was at a different shelter. it just prompted them to test their own. 146, almost all asymptomatic.

lot more of that kind of scientific guesswork on the fly out there, too.

here's out of los alamos, even if believing the low-ish numbers out of wuhan:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/tarahaelle ... ac3d8729a6
here's the los alamos study inside of that:
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/ ... 33-DM25287
r0 of 5.7 or 5.8. all is extrapolated, not unlike a lot of what r0 data (guesses) we think we know.

those are just a couple of data points. i could link dozens/hundreds of other items, quirks, studies.
here's an update on telluride from a couple days ago. most tests aren't in yet. a sparsely populated county (5.7 per sq mile):
https://reason.com/2020/04/17/antibody- ... nfections/

california's numbers as the gateway to china have never made any sense to me. there are many other data items that haven't made any sense.

if there is a r0 approaching 6 or anything similar to that, and asymptomatic/very mild cases are prevalent to some major degree (i.e. not 20 or even 40-50%)... pcr testing and contact tracing aren't making a dent. we will be needing to evaluate next steps. high, high transmissibility, lower than thought case fatality, asymptomatic carriers. what next?

that's just one scenario bc we do not know what this virus is all about. still. we either may not or don't know squat right now. other than stay away from people and wash your hands.

we need 10, 20, 30 whatever # of all-inclusive community anti-body tests. imo. how deep is the spread even with all this social distancing? the data that is coming back on this for now could be very biased or very wrong for any other number of reasons. but would explain a lot.

or, we could just keep testing people that come in with symptoms, if a test is available, if the patient shows up. do some contact tracing if we can find the people to do that. trace and test all the contacts if we can find them all, and of course if we have the tests. hope the r0 numbers aren't too far off, or hope it goes away. with the heat.

Pay close attention to what comes from the CDC's study of the 1000 sailors on the TR (our carrier in Guam).

It took a week longer than the Capt wanted to get the crew off the ship. He predicted 50 deaths. There's been one & it was strange, asymptomatic in a quarantine house, didn't wake up one morning, wasn't even hospitalized.

94% of crew tested -- 3920 negative, 660 positives, 60% of the positives asymptomatic. 7 in hospital. 1 in ICU for shortness of breath.

[Jim Malone]

As of 4/20 for just Nassau and Suffolk counties here with combined population of 2.5M, 60K of 134K tested positive. 44% infected. Near me in just Nassau is closer to 60%. Most infected are asymptomatic.

Way more testing is needed.

No one is going out, let alone using mass transit and forget about visiting a department store or restaurant.

Obituary pages went from one or two of five column page to 2-7 pages daily.

[cradleandshoot]

They’ve tested a wide sample including asymptomatic subjects. We’re still wiping our ass with rocks.

Total test south Korea 559K as of 4/19

Total US tests 2.688.766 million as of 4/12

SK had only 10661 cases as of that date.

Current test number for US about 3.6 million, and 788,000 cases. Factor of more than 10 in number of cases - and about 6 in testing. And since we are still not testing enough - no one knows the actual case count in the US.

NYT on 4/17 published an article saying the experts think we need to triple our daily capacity for testing...

This massive early testing everyone complains about really makes little sense, why? because we would have completely wiped out our PPE stock pile in a very short time, then been left with very little for those that need it to treat sick people. There HAD to be a slow roll out, in order to stock pile PPE.

Massive early testing would have kept the problem from getting so out of control, so no, no, no!

That is sort of a misleading statement. You can test people until the cows come home and it means jack squat. If it takes 2 weeks for these overwhelmed labs to get the results back what is that telling you? By the time you get your results your either recovering or your dead. The best advice has been if you feel sick, stay home and call your doctor. You test 10 million people and 95% of them test negative 2 weeks later. That tells you nothing that is of any use. Until you can get a test result back in 30 minutes your peeing in the wind with all this testing.

[cradleandshoot]

They’ve tested a wide sample including asymptomatic subjects. We’re still wiping our ass with rocks.

Total test south Korea 559K as of 4/19

Total US tests 2.688.766 million as of 4/12

SK had only 10661 cases as of that date.

Current test number for US about 3.6 million, and 788,000 cases. Factor of more than 10 in number of cases - and about 6 in testing. And since we are still not testing enough - no one knows the actual case count in the US.

NYT on 4/17 published an article saying the experts think we need to triple our daily capacity for testing...

This massive early testing everyone complains about really makes little sense, why? because we would have completely wiped out our PPE stock pile in a very short time, then been left with very little for those that need it to treat sick people. There HAD to be a slow roll out, in order to stock pile PPE.

HUH?

No, we needed to keep the cases low, the infections suppressed so that we didn't have health systems overwhelmed. Including use of PPE.

But of course we also needed to do emergency runs of PPE in parallel.

And that is exactly why they wanted people to stay home with symptoms and to call their doctor to discuss IF they needed a test....they needed to build the stockpile of PPE and keep sick people off the streets.

You are glossing over the point. We all saw the mad dash and damned near depletion of PPE for hospitals early on. Which is why we had to have multiple vendors ramp up production of PPE....hell, we even had to ask China to ship us stuff. Our company has had an order for 12k 95 masks for over 3 and 1/2 weeks.....still not here....even just surgical masks have been on 2-3 backorder.

If you are a nurse or a dr in a hospital and you have a line out the door for tests, then in the middle of testing you run out of PPE, with that line still out there door, who takes care of those that are sick? Who takes cares of those already admitted or those that need admitted when you are out of PPE?

You don't send a soldier into battle with 2 bullets and 10 guns.

Best dog gone post on this subject in quite awhile. My wife has had 2 patients with suspected COVID symptoms. In both patients, even in a class A trauma center it took 48 hours to get a negative result. Just keep right on testing, testing, testing, testing, testing. Unless your doctor tells you you should be tested, and your not having trouble breathing... STAY HOME AND GET WELL.

[runrussellrun]

Interesting information.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

Data as of April 20, 2020

Total Deaths 15,251 (COVID-19 Deaths) 603,184 Deaths from All Cause

[MDlaxfan76]

Interesting information.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

Data as of April 20, 2020

Total Deaths 15,251 (COVID-19 Deaths) 603,184 Deaths from All Cause

From that table re COVID-19 deaths:

NOTE: Number of deaths reported in this table are the total number of deaths received and coded as of the date of analysis and do not represent all deaths that occurred in that period.
*Data during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction, age, and cause of death.
1Deaths with confirmed or presumed COVID-19, coded to ICD–10 code U07.1
2Percent of expected deaths is the number of deaths for all causes for this week in 2020 compared to the average number across the same week in 2017–2019. Previous analyses of 2015–2016 provisional data completeness have found that completeness is lower in the first few weeks following the date of death (8).
3Pneumonia death counts exclude pneumonia deaths involving influenza.
4Influenza death counts include deaths with pneumonia or COVID-19 also listed as a cause of death.
5Population is based on 2018 postcensal estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau (9)

[cradleandshoot]

A number of our FLP friends have been telling us what a great job the SK government is doing with the CV in their country. Would it make sense for King Andy to hand over control of NYS unemployment system to the South Koreans? The bunch of FLP jackasses that run NYS dont have a clue how to handle it. I already applied on line. I was cheerfully advised I would get a callback in 72 hours. That was a week ago. I am now trying the phone # for NYS unemployment... busy... busy...busy...busy...busy...busy...busy...busy...busy. Maybe it would make sense to hand over the day to day operations of NYS to the South Koreans? NYS would lose its king, but maybe something can be accomished.

[runrussellrun]

Interesting information.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

Data as of April 20, 2020

Total Deaths 15,251 (COVID-19 Deaths) 603,184 Deaths from All Cause

From that table re COVID-19 deaths:

NOTE: Number of deaths reported in this table are the total number of deaths received and coded as of the date of analysis and do not represent all deaths that occurred in that period.
*Data during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction, age, and cause of death.
1Deaths with confirmed or presumed COVID-19, coded to ICD–10 code U07.1
2Percent of expected deaths is the number of deaths for all causes for this week in 2020 compared to the average number across the same week in 2017–2019. Previous analyses of 2015–2016 provisional data completeness have found that completeness is lower in the first few weeks following the date of death (8).
3Pneumonia death counts exclude pneumonia deaths involving influenza.
4Influenza death counts include deaths with pneumonia or COVID-19 also listed as a cause of death.
5Population is based on 2018 postcensal estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau (9)

Yeah.........already read that part.

Wondering, tho, what YOUR point is? Is the agency, whose sole mission (should spell is soul, just to bug you ) IS, repeat, IS, pandemics and disease control. The very CENTER of it all, wouldn't you agree.

What is 6 x 4 ? 24. Add a few zeros' and you get the death count & pace for 2020. Yup, the USA is on pace to lose 2.4 millions soles in 2020

Unless, you are NOT trusting the CDC's numbers?

With information like this, what could go wrong.......is what you are saying.

[MDlaxfan76]

I was simply struck by the 15K when we're now over 40k.