LaxPower Back-Up Stick

MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 6:22 pm are you conflating the two types of tests, perhaps?

The contract tracing is on currently infectious, not someone who was infectious at some unknown point in the past.

If currently infectious, need to find anyone else currently infectious and isolate them to prevent further spread. It's an ongoing battle, but it's not testing everyone for past infections.

Different sort of test. More of a 'nice to have' but not part of contact tracing to prevent outbreaks.

But in order for this to be manageable, which I think is your point, we need to get the #'s of actively infectious people suppressed enough, through the stay at home process, to actually be able to target the relatively few such..and their contacts.

But if it blooms out of control, you have to go back to stay at home draconian measures like we're doing now.

mdlax, good to have a back and forth.
no, i don't need it to be explained to me what the different types are for, and what they measure. but thank you anyway.
it does seem you are not getting my drift, nor me yours.
your 2nd to last sentence is close, but again --- we are talking about scale.
we will see where this goes next, it is an upside down world.

MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 6:24 pm

youthathletics wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 6:16 pm

RedFromMI wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 5:50 pm

6ftstick wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 5:40 pm

Trinity wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 5:23 pm They’ve tested a wide sample including asymptomatic subjects. We’re still wiping our ass with rocks.

Total test south Korea 559K as of 4/19

Total US tests 2.688.766 million as of 4/12

SK had only 10661 cases as of that date.

Current test number for US about 3.6 million, and 788,000 cases. Factor of more than 10 in number of cases - and about 6 in testing. And since we are still not testing enough - no one knows the actual case count in the US.

NYT on 4/17 published an article saying the experts think we need to triple our daily capacity for testing...

This massive early testing everyone complains about really makes little sense, why? because we would have completely wiped out our PPE stock pile in a very short time, then been left with very little for those that need it to treat sick people. There HAD to be a slow roll out, in order to stock pile PPE.

HUH?

No, we needed to keep the cases low, the infections suppressed so that we didn't have health systems overwhelmed. Including use of PPE.

But of course we also needed to do emergency runs of PPE in parallel.

In other words, we didn't want to get out over our skis so we didn't test.

Dr Birx just said Florida has the best most informative state health care website of all 50 states.

Who’s the governor there again?

ggait wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 6:27 pm

having said that, don't have any confidence that 1 m tests is any better than 100k. everyone knows we have 330 m people in the country, right? if you did 1 m per day, that would be 10% of the entire population in a month, if in fact it was only one person for every test.
how does that work?

Experts not in Trump's administration are saying you need 500-700k daily minimum (although more is always better) to get you to the point where you have a useful tool to work with. Anything below that is driving at night with no headlights. So clearly not the dumb-assery of 150k that Pence is trying to sell us currently.

But you don't need 325 million per day. Everyone in the country doesn't need to be able to get a test on demand every day. Everyone in the country WHO NEEDS A TEST needs to be able to get it on demand. That's 500-1,000k per day. Not where we currently are, but not impossible to do if you aren't completely screwing up.

Former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb has said you need 300k per day to re-open. Basically in the same ballpark.

And there are others who say you need 20 million per day. Eye roll. If those guys are right (doubtful), then we should all just go back to work today and get infected. Because 20 million a day ain't ever gonna happen.

cool. let's roll. georgia looks like they're up first. let's see how it goes!

MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 6:24 pm

youthathletics wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 6:16 pm

RedFromMI wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 5:50 pm

6ftstick wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 5:40 pm

Trinity wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 5:23 pm They’ve tested a wide sample including asymptomatic subjects. We’re still wiping our ass with rocks.

Total test south Korea 559K as of 4/19

Total US tests 2.688.766 million as of 4/12

SK had only 10661 cases as of that date.

Current test number for US about 3.6 million, and 788,000 cases. Factor of more than 10 in number of cases - and about 6 in testing. And since we are still not testing enough - no one knows the actual case count in the US.

NYT on 4/17 published an article saying the experts think we need to triple our daily capacity for testing...

This massive early testing everyone complains about really makes little sense, why? because we would have completely wiped out our PPE stock pile in a very short time, then been left with very little for those that need it to treat sick people. There HAD to be a slow roll out, in order to stock pile PPE.

HUH?

No, we needed to keep the cases low, the infections suppressed so that we didn't have health systems overwhelmed. Including use of PPE.

But of course we also needed to do emergency runs of PPE in parallel.

And that is exactly why they wanted people to stay home with symptoms and to call their doctor to discuss IF they needed a test....they needed to build the stockpile of PPE and keep sick people off the streets.

You are glossing over the point. We all saw the mad dash and damned near depletion of PPE for hospitals early on. Which is why we had to have multiple vendors ramp up production of PPE....hell, we even had to ask China to ship us stuff. Our company has had an order for 12k 95 masks for over 3 and 1/2 weeks.....still not here....even just surgical masks have been on 2-3 backorder.

If you are a nurse or a dr in a hospital and you have a line out the door for tests, then in the middle of testing you run out of PPE, with that line still out there door, who takes care of those that are sick? Who takes cares of those already admitted or those that need admitted when you are out of PPE?

You don't send a soldier into battle with 2 bullets and 10 guns.

wgdsr wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 6:49 pm

MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 6:22 pm are you conflating the two types of tests, perhaps?

The contract tracing is on currently infectious, not someone who was infectious at some unknown point in the past.

If currently infectious, need to find anyone else currently infectious and isolate them to prevent further spread. It's an ongoing battle, but it's not testing everyone for past infections.

Different sort of test. More of a 'nice to have' but not part of contact tracing to prevent outbreaks.

But in order for this to be manageable, which I think is your point, we need to get the #'s of actively infectious people suppressed enough, through the stay at home process, to actually be able to target the relatively few such..and their contacts.

But if it blooms out of control, you have to go back to stay at home draconian measures like we're doing now.

mdlax, good to have a back and forth.
no, i don't need it to be explained to me what the different types are for, and what they measure. but thank you anyway.
it does seem you are not getting my drift, nor me yours.
your 2nd to last sentence is close, but again --- we are talking about scale.
we will see where this goes next, it is an upside down world.

Yes, I didn't mean to imply that I knew or understood something you didn't. I was just trying to figure out where we were missing each other on this.

I think we can and must do contact tracing, but we need to get the base infections down first and then we need to be able to swiftly test and trace from there. I don't see how we keep a lid on this otherwise and have any semblance of opening.

But it's really big scale, that's for sure.

youthathletics wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 7:07 pm

MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 6:24 pm

youthathletics wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 6:16 pm

RedFromMI wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 5:50 pm

6ftstick wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 5:40 pm

Trinity wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 5:23 pm They’ve tested a wide sample including asymptomatic subjects. We’re still wiping our ass with rocks.

Total test south Korea 559K as of 4/19

Total US tests 2.688.766 million as of 4/12

SK had only 10661 cases as of that date.

Current test number for US about 3.6 million, and 788,000 cases. Factor of more than 10 in number of cases - and about 6 in testing. And since we are still not testing enough - no one knows the actual case count in the US.

NYT on 4/17 published an article saying the experts think we need to triple our daily capacity for testing...

This massive early testing everyone complains about really makes little sense, why? because we would have completely wiped out our PPE stock pile in a very short time, then been left with very little for those that need it to treat sick people. There HAD to be a slow roll out, in order to stock pile PPE.

HUH?

No, we needed to keep the cases low, the infections suppressed so that we didn't have health systems overwhelmed. Including use of PPE.

But of course we also needed to do emergency runs of PPE in parallel.

And that is exactly why they wanted people to stay home with symptoms and to call their doctor to discuss IF they needed a test....they needed to build the stockpile of PPE and keep sick people off the streets.

You are glossing over the point. We all saw the mad dash and damned near depletion of PPE for hospitals early on. Which is why we had to have multiple vendors ramp up production of PPE....hell, we even had to ask China to ship us stuff. Our company has had an order for 12k 95 masks for over 3 and 1/2 weeks.....still not here....even just surgical masks have been on 2-3 backorder.

If you are a nurse or a dr in a hospital and you have a line out the door for tests, then in the middle of testing you run out of PPE, with that line still out there door, who takes care of those that are sick? Who takes cares of those already admitted or those that need admitted when you are out of PPE?

You don't send a soldier into battle with 2 bullets and 10 guns.

well sure, but we had a window of opportunity to ramp up every aspect. That's the whole point of the 'missing 6 weeks'.

Had we jumped on it hard from the outset, told everyone to make themselves a mask if they didn't already have one and nationalized/federalized purchasing, production and distribution of PPE's simultaneously to adopting the swiftest approach to mass testing, we'd have not had the scale of spread.

Not remotely as much spread.
Heck SK managed to do it with no stay at home, just intense individual social distancing, everyone with a mask, and test and contact trace and isolate. Targeted.

So way less economic cost as well as well as fewer deaths per capita of impacted regions. It's not as if Seoul isn't very, very dense!

So, this is where we need to get to in order to re-open the economy...flattened curve, lots of PPE, lots of individual precautions, and test, trace and isolate EVERY case.

Peter Brown wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 6:52 pm Dr Birx just said Florida has the best most informative state health care website of all 50 states.

Who’s the governor there again?

How long's he been Governor?
Birx has worked with pals there for many years apparently.

Because of Trump’s incompetence and intransigence, the Republican Governor of Maryland had to rely on his Korean-American wife in order to garner 500,000 coronavirus test kits from South Korea. Trump has officially turned the United States into a third-world beggar nation.

(CNN)When Republican Gov. Larry Hogan of Maryland addressed the media at his Monday afternoon news conference, he made it clear his wife, Yumi Hogan -- and not the federal government -- was the reason his state secured half a million coronavirus test kits.

Maryland's first lady was born in South Korea and became a US citizen in 1994. She not only used her native language to help secure the tests but also helped negotiate the deal.

... "We convened countless calls, nearly every night, sometimes it seemed like all night," said Hogan of the 22 days he and the first lady worked in conjunction with the Korean government to land the mother lode of hard-to-come-by coronavirus test kits.

On Saturday, both Hogans were on the tarmac at Baltimore/Washington International Thurgood Marshall Airport, greeting a chartered 777 Korean Air plane with no passengers aboard. Inside were enough test kits from Korea's LabGenomics for Maryland to perform 500,000 tests.

... But since March 28, the start of Operation Enduring Friendship, Hogan's brushes have come second to her determination to use her understanding and knowledge of Korea, its people, its language, its protocol, in an effort to get Covid-19 tests for the state she serves as first lady.

On Monday, Hogan told the press about an event he had attended with his wife in Washington in February, where South Korean President Moon Jae-in videotaped a message to the governor, calling him a "sawi," Korean for son-in-law.

"I had no idea just how much that would truly come to mean," Hogan said Monday.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/20/politics ... index.html

Clearly, the First Lady of Maryland is a remarkable woman, first helping her husband through cancer treatments, and now helping to secure half a million test kits for her adopted state.

But don’t lose sight of what Trump’s incompetence forced the First Couple of Maryland to do ... basically beg a foreign nation, South Korea, to provide test kits for the State of Maryland because the supposed President of the United States can’t be bothered to take the lead on test kits.

The South Korean government must be shaking their heads in disbelief on how far America has fallen under Trump.

Indeed, Trump’s America is now the exemplar basket case of the entire pandemic ... a pathetic beggar-state with its hand out to friends (South Korea) and foes (Russia and China) alike.

DocBarrister

Trinity wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 5:23 pm They’ve tested a wide sample including asymptomatic subjects. We’re still wiping our ass with rocks.

I thought that was because we are out of toilet paper.

Peter Brown wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 6:52 pm Dr Birx just said Florida has the best most informative state health care website of all 50 states.

Who’s the governor there again?

Has he learned how to put on a mask yet?

DocBarrister wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 6:46 pm

MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 6:31 pm

old salt wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 6:13 pm Here's the NR article Trump just mentioned on how the media blew the ventilator story,
...with their "gotcha idiocy". Can't wait for the apology to Jared.

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/ ... ge-deftly/

I did seem to be an almost gleeful jump on Jared...though it really was a stupid way to say it, something he could have easily clarified in the ensuing period.

But, nah, we really did run out of ventilators in some hospitals, with all sorts of jury rig 'solutions' that put both patients in jeopardy. and there really was rationing of who got to go on the ventilator and who was just assumed to be a lost cause. That really did happen in some NYC hospitals.

But it certainly could have been way, way worse. Social distancing worked, thank god.

PPE? Testing?
Bueller, Bueller?

The author of the National Review article is oblivious to a major weakness of the approach described ... 24-48 hours is NOT fast when it comes to the coronavirus. Patients with Covid-19 can crash very quickly ... not over one or two days (24-48 hours), but within 1 or 2 hours. Boasting of a 24-48 hour delivery time for ventilators is only displaying one’s ignorance.

They stayed just slightly in front of that breaking wave, but not by much. Count them lucky, but don’t deem them prescient.

DocBarrister

Duh. They didn't wait until there were no ventilators to send more.

MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 6:31 pm

old salt wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 6:13 pm Here's the NR article Trump just mentioned on how the media blew the ventilator story,
...with their "gotcha idiocy". Can't wait for the apology to Jared.

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/ ... ge-deftly/

I did seem to be an almost gleeful jump on Jared...though it really was a stupid way to say it, something he could have easily clarified in the ensuing period.

But, nah, we really did run out of ventilators in some hospitals, with all sorts of jury rig 'solutions' that put both patients in jeopardy. and there really was rationing of who got to go on the ventilator and who was just assumed to be a lost cause. That really did happen in some NYC hospitals.

But it certainly could have been way, way worse. Social distancing worked, thank god.

PPE? Testing?
Bueller, Bueller?

Which hospitals ran out of ventilators ? Which hospitals actually used the jury rigged solutions ?
Were there still spares in the NY stock pile ? Were the 2000 the Feds sent still in the NJ warehouse ?

youthathletics wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 7:07 pm

MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 6:24 pm

youthathletics wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 6:16 pm

RedFromMI wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 5:50 pm

6ftstick wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 5:40 pm

Trinity wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 5:23 pm They’ve tested a wide sample including asymptomatic subjects. We’re still wiping our ass with rocks.

Total test south Korea 559K as of 4/19

Total US tests 2.688.766 million as of 4/12

SK had only 10661 cases as of that date.

Current test number for US about 3.6 million, and 788,000 cases. Factor of more than 10 in number of cases - and about 6 in testing. And since we are still not testing enough - no one knows the actual case count in the US.

NYT on 4/17 published an article saying the experts think we need to triple our daily capacity for testing...

This massive early testing everyone complains about really makes little sense, why? because we would have completely wiped out our PPE stock pile in a very short time, then been left with very little for those that need it to treat sick people. There HAD to be a slow roll out, in order to stock pile PPE.

HUH?

No, we needed to keep the cases low, the infections suppressed so that we didn't have health systems overwhelmed. Including use of PPE.

But of course we also needed to do emergency runs of PPE in parallel.

And that is exactly why they wanted people to stay home with symptoms and to call their doctor to discuss IF they needed a test....they needed to build the stockpile of PPE and keep sick people off the streets.

You are glossing over the point. We all saw the mad dash and damned near depletion of PPE for hospitals early on. Which is why we had to have multiple vendors ramp up production of PPE....hell, we even had to ask China to ship us stuff. Our company has had an order for 12k 95 masks for over 3 and 1/2 weeks.....still not here....even just surgical masks have been on 2-3 backorder.

If you are a nurse or a dr in a hospital and you have a line out the door for tests, then in the middle of testing you run out of PPE, with that line still out there door, who takes care of those that are sick? Who takes cares of those already admitted or those that need admitted when you are out of PPE?

You don't send a soldier into battle with 2 bullets and 10 guns.

That's why MD closed vet clinics -- to preserve PPE. Emergencies & rabies vac's only.

There wasn't enough PPE & test kit components on the planet to do contact tracing in the NYC area.
People vectors poured through JFK from around the globe & fanned out throughout the US.

Peter Brown wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 6:52 pm Dr Birx just said Florida has the best most informative state health care website of all 50 states.

Who’s the governor there again?

The same dude here: https://www.fox35orlando.com/news/6-of- ... n-paid-out

Clever video....

https://amp.ydr.com/amp/5164157002

American exceptionalism.

youthathletics wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 6:16 pm

RedFromMI wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 5:50 pm

6ftstick wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 5:40 pm

Trinity wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 5:23 pm They’ve tested a wide sample including asymptomatic subjects. We’re still wiping our ass with rocks.

Total test south Korea 559K as of 4/19

Total US tests 2.688.766 million as of 4/12

SK had only 10661 cases as of that date.

Current test number for US about 3.6 million, and 788,000 cases. Factor of more than 10 in number of cases - and about 6 in testing. And since we are still not testing enough - no one knows the actual case count in the US.

NYT on 4/17 published an article saying the experts think we need to triple our daily capacity for testing...

This massive early testing everyone complains about really makes little sense, why? because we would have completely wiped out our PPE stock pile in a very short time, then been left with very little for those that need it to treat sick people. There HAD to be a slow roll out, in order to stock pile PPE.

Massive early testing would have kept the problem from getting so out of control, so no, no, no!

RedFromMI wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 10:22 pm

youthathletics wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 6:16 pm

RedFromMI wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 5:50 pm

6ftstick wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 5:40 pm

Trinity wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 5:23 pm They’ve tested a wide sample including asymptomatic subjects. We’re still wiping our ass with rocks.

Total test south Korea 559K as of 4/19

Total US tests 2.688.766 million as of 4/12

SK had only 10661 cases as of that date.

Current test number for US about 3.6 million, and 788,000 cases. Factor of more than 10 in number of cases - and about 6 in testing. And since we are still not testing enough - no one knows the actual case count in the US.

NYT on 4/17 published an article saying the experts think we need to triple our daily capacity for testing...

This massive early testing everyone complains about really makes little sense, why? because we would have completely wiped out our PPE stock pile in a very short time, then been left with very little for those that need it to treat sick people. There HAD to be a slow roll out, in order to stock pile PPE.

Massive early testing would have kept the problem from getting so out of control, so no, no, no!

We didn’t want to get out over our skis

But the countries that implemented early testing without the lockdowns resulting in limited cases and deaths ran out of PPE super fast.

Oh wait, this just in... I'm hearing they didn't run out of PPE?

Seoul’s Full Cafes, Apple Store Lines Show Mass Testing Success

The irony of all this mess is that I've been listening to Bloomberg radio a LOT more since he dropped out of the race. Not a lot of fluff or sensationalism in their reporting even vs. boring old NPR. They have their own problems, but it's a nice break from the other outlets, left and right. I still wouldn't vote for the man in the primary.