Stanford antibody study estimates COVID-19 infected 50 to 85 times more people than testing identified in Santa Clara County
Whats that do to the virulence of the Wuhan Virus?
As the article says:
Based on their results, the Stanford researchers estimated the mortality rate in Santa Clara County to be between 0.12% and 0.2%. By comparison, the average death rate of the seasonal flu is 0.1%.
So Covid may be more spreadable and less lethal than previously thought. That's still dangerous. Since the risk of an infectious disease is the product of those two dimensions. If Covid is both more contagious and more lethal than the annual flu, that's exactly how you get into the SD zone.
If Stanford is correct (TBD) Covid is still 2X to 12X more lethal than seasonal flu. Fauci thinks it will be 1% fatal fwiw. But well short of the Spanish Flu -- 2% lethal.
chelsea has been particularly hard hit, even for massachusetts. unfortunately, this study evidently was, again... advertised to get people tested that volunteered to be. 1/2 of those (testing positive? all participants? tough to tell for sure linking the 2 articles) had at least one symptom related to coivd/talked to a doctor about it.
so all this study does for sure is confirm (to the degree that test is accurate) that there are a bunch of people out there that have/have had it and not been tested for it. that would mean case fatality is lower, but we seemingly already know that.
the santa clara study advertised for folks as well. getting a community (x10) test for antibodies... test everyone but the anti-vaxxers.... would be great to get a better handle on where we are with this.
and why at this point we don't (worldwide?) have an idea about immunity at least in the short term is really amazing.
Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus
Posted: Mon Apr 20, 2020 3:03 pm
by CU88
LEADERSHIP
Governor Hogan: Md. gets 500,000 COVID-19 tests from South Korea after weeks of efforts
Joe Biden is going to announce a plan to get a test to every single person that wants it. I agree, VP Joe. test EVERYONE for it. See them antibodies floating around. But, we can't do that..........it won't look as scary.
Two months, to get 1/2 a million tests. How many years to get 330 million? this is leadership?
Was this part of the private-public pathways to PPE supply , robust, in fact, chains?
only thing in chains is our minds.
PLEAZSE.......crash internet, crash. Test trail thursday morning......watch and see. 6am to 7;30 am EST.
remember, they can't afford to have photo ID's for voting, BUT, they will have to have them when the mandatory vaccine ghestapo come knocking.
Joe Biden is going to announce a plan to get a test to every single person that wants it. I agree, VP Joe. test EVERYONE for it. See them antibodies floating around. But, we can't do that..........it won't look as scary.
Two months, to get 1/2 a million tests. How many years to get 330 million? this is leadership?
Was this part of the private-public pathways to PPE supply , robust, in fact, chains?
only thing in chains is our minds.
PLEAZSE.......crash internet, crash. Test trail thursday morning......watch and see. 6am to 7;30 am EST.
remember, they can't afford to have photo ID's for voting, BUT, they will have to have them when the mandatory vaccine ghestapo come knocking.
With everyone at home, seems like a great time to send the census out.
Neo-Nazi Trash Among the Protesters Supported by Trump
Posted: Mon Apr 20, 2020 3:45 pm
by DocBarrister
Just saw on MSNBC one of the protesters demanding the reopening of business wearing a knitted cap with a Nazi cross insignia.
Racist, bigoted moron.
DocBarrister
Re: Neo-Nazi Trash Among the Protesters Supported by Trump
Posted: Mon Apr 20, 2020 3:59 pm
by Brooklyn
DocBarrister wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 3:45 pm
Just saw on MSNBC one of the protesters demanding the reopening of business wearing a knitted cap with a Nazi cross insignia.
Racist, bigoted moron.
DocBarrister
This is what those delusionals need to sign under oath and threat of perjury:
it does beg the question... if a couple residents who work in biotech can get this setup, why couldn't that happen.... everywhere?
by free i assume someone is picking up the tab.
doing it once is better than not at all. what happens after that? tests every week? if there isn't a follow up procedure, and it's not ubiquitous, just buying time.
in the absence of federal help (for now) to get something like this done... float a bond for a working credit line. governors? local board of sup's?
Stanford antibody study estimates COVID-19 infected 50 to 85 times more people than testing identified in Santa Clara County
Whats that do to the virulence of the Wuhan Virus?
As the article says:
Based on their results, the Stanford researchers estimated the mortality rate in Santa Clara County to be between 0.12% and 0.2%. By comparison, the average death rate of the seasonal flu is 0.1%.
So Covid may be more spreadable and less lethal than previously thought. That's still dangerous. Since the risk of an infectious disease is the product of those two dimensions. If Covid is both more contagious and more lethal than the annual flu, that's exactly how you get into the SD zone.
If Stanford is correct (TBD) Covid is still 2X to 12X more lethal than seasonal flu. Fauci thinks it will be 1% fatal fwiw. But well short of the Spanish Flu -- 2% lethal.
chelsea has been particularly hard hit, even for massachusetts. unfortunately, this study evidently was, again... advertised to get people tested that volunteered to be. 1/2 of those (testing positive? all participants? tough to tell for sure linking the 2 articles) had at least one symptom related to coivd/talked to a doctor about it.
so all this study does for sure is confirm (to the degree that test is accurate) that there are a bunch of people out there that have/have had it and not been tested for it. that would mean case fatality is lower, but we seemingly already know that.
the santa clara study advertised for folks as well. getting a community (x10) test for antibodies... test everyone but the anti-vaxxers.... would be great to get a better handle on where we are with this.
and why at this point we don't (worldwide?) have an idea about immunity at least in the short term is really amazing.
‘Green Acres’ Actor Tom Lester Dies Because the Government Wouldn’t Let Him Go Outside. Dang City Folk Done Killed Him. Arnold Ziffel Squeals In Grief.
Two months, to get 1/2 a million tests. How many years to get 330 million? this is leadership?
US is currently doing 150k tests per day. While Trump/Pence say that's enough to start re-opening, the experts say you need to get to 500k per day minimum before we can start coming out of our bunkers. But 1M a day would be better.
But any of you that want to come out sooner -- go ahead and mix it up with folks who agree with you. Just keep it to yourselves. How long till we hear the stories of this weekend's protesters winding up in ICU beds?
I don't understand screaming about the lock up orders. I do understand screaming "where is the forking test I need so I can go back to work?"
Two months, to get 1/2 a million tests. How many years to get 330 million? this is leadership?
US is currently doing 150k tests per day. While Trump/Pence say that's enough to start re-opening, the experts say you need to get to 500k per day minimum before we can start coming out of our bunkers. But 1M a day would be better.
But any of you that want to come out sooner -- go ahead and mix it up with folks who agree with you. Just keep it to yourselves. How long till we hear the stories of this weekend's protesters winding up in ICU beds?
I don't understand screaming about the lock up orders. I do understand screaming "where is the forking test I need so I can go back to work?"
+1.
Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus
Posted: Mon Apr 20, 2020 4:44 pm
by njbill
6ftstick wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 2:32 pm
The mayor of Elizabeth New Jersey is using Chinese Drones to spy on his citizens to ensure they maintain social distancing.
He pontificates "If one life is saved it'll be worth it."
No sir it won't. Gotta stop this dump. Gotta stop it soon
How many lives need to be saved before it is worth it?
Two months, to get 1/2 a million tests. How many years to get 330 million? this is leadership?
US is currently doing 150k tests per day. While Trump/Pence say that's enough to start re-opening, the experts say you need to get to 500k per day minimum before we can start coming out of our bunkers. But 1M a day would be better.
But any of you that want to come out sooner -- go ahead and mix it up with folks who agree with you. Just keep it to yourselves. How long till we hear the stories of this weekend's protesters winding up in ICU beds?
I don't understand screaming about the lock up orders. I do understand screaming "where is the forking test I need so I can go back to work?"
i'm still not sure that trump understands you can be asymptomatic and still have it, and pass it on to others. i really don't think he does.
having said that, don't have any confidence that 1 m tests is any better than 100k. everyone knows we have 330 m people in the country, right? if you did 1 m per day, that would be 10% of the entire population in a month, if in fact it was only one person for every test.
how does that work?
over the course of 1 month, 10% of the entire population is tested. what is everyone else doing at this time? are we assuming some validation of immunity gets attached at some point? what about all the people that test negative and are now all out there mixing it up with everyone else? or are they not allowed to work until they get it? i can only imagine the unintended consequences of a policy like that.
who are we testing, people with symptoms? anyone that needs/wants to get back to work so they can be cleared (if immunity, of course).
everybody's just throwing out testing, testing. honestly, i don't even know what it means in the construct of what we'd be doing it for. if it's to clear people for work/get out there in the open, a million tests a day doesn't make a dent.
Stanford antibody study estimates COVID-19 infected 50 to 85 times more people than testing identified in Santa Clara County
Whats that do to the virulence of the Wuhan Virus?
As the article says:
Based on their results, the Stanford researchers estimated the mortality rate in Santa Clara County to be between 0.12% and 0.2%. By comparison, the average death rate of the seasonal flu is 0.1%.
So Covid may be more spreadable and less lethal than previously thought. That's still dangerous. Since the risk of an infectious disease is the product of those two dimensions. If Covid is both more contagious and more lethal than the annual flu, that's exactly how you get into the SD zone.
If Stanford is correct (TBD) Covid is still 2X to 12X more lethal than seasonal flu. Fauci thinks it will be 1% fatal fwiw. But well short of the Spanish Flu -- 2% lethal.
Was just discussing this with an infectious disease expert at Hopkins this afternoon.
It's actually more complex. The hypothesis is that exposure has been high, but much of that exposure has been at low viral load levels. People are developing some antibodies, and these low levels are being detected (assuming not false positives) but there's a very serious question as to whether they are actually immune when/if the viral load is subsequently higher.
So, the fatality rate could well be much higher for those who become symptomatic than is the case for those who get the flu and are symptomatic.
We generally don't test people for the flu who aren't symptomatic, right?
Apples to apples, COVID-19 may well be much more fatal.
And more transmissible.
