LaxPower Back-Up Stick

Typical Lax Dad wrote: ↑Sat Apr 16, 2022 12:51 pm

nms wrote: ↑Sat Apr 16, 2022 12:31 pm Watching Rutgers vs. Michigan, and just heard Quint say that RPI does not work for college lacrosse and that the NCAA has to find a new criteria. I doubt he was saying that in the years the ACC was benefiting. Now that the Ivies have a good year, we need a new system.

More lacrosse mafia stuff.

Guck Squint.

I tuned into the Rutgers-Michigan game and just in time to hear Quint utter this little gem, while the game action was going on: "The eyes send signals to the hands. It's like baseball. It's like tennis."

Is it possible to make a more useless comment? Quint has just gotten incredibly lazy, it's time to put him out to pasture.

nms wrote: ↑Sat Apr 16, 2022 12:31 pm Watching Rutgers vs. Michigan, and just heard Quint say that RPI does not work for college lacrosse and that the NCAA has to find a new criteria. I doubt he was saying that in the years the ACC was benefiting. Now that the Ivies have a good year, we need a new system.

Regardless of his intention, RPI is a poor metric. Hopkins has lost 4 of the last 5, and the Jays' RPI has barely moved. Eventually, wins have to count for something.

Just as the NCAA committee announces their current top 10:

Maryland
Princeton
Georgetown
Cornell
Yale
Rutgers
Virginia
Ohio State
Penn
Jacksonville

Cornell and Yale respond by getting blown out ...

Princeton hangs on to beat Dartmouth 12-10 ...

Penn leads Harvard 9-5 early in Q4 ...

Fair Cornell or CU77,
You guys are gurus of the Crazy Ivy League permutations as far as the ILT is concerned, so could 1 or both of you please post the possible scenarios after another Crazy day of Ivy Lax.
Thanks in advance.
GOBIGRED
Joewillie78

joewillie78 wrote: ↑Sat Apr 16, 2022 5:50 pm Fair Cornell or CU77,
You guys are gurus of the Crazy Ivy League permutations as far as the ILT is concerned, so could 1 or both of you please post the possible scenarios after another Crazy day of Ivy Lax.
Thanks in advance.
GOBIGRED
Joewillie78

Hi Joe Willie! That's CU77's expertise. I will guess that if Cornell can beat Brown (a tall order), that they are in the ILT. Thanks, however, for your confidence in my computational skills.

faircornell wrote: ↑Sat Apr 16, 2022 6:06 pm

joewillie78 wrote: ↑Sat Apr 16, 2022 5:50 pm Fair Cornell or CU77,
You guys are gurus of the Crazy Ivy League permutations as far as the ILT is concerned, so could 1 or both of you please post the possible scenarios after another Crazy day of Ivy Lax.
Thanks in advance.
GOBIGRED
Joewillie78

Hi Joe Willie! That's CU77's expertise. I will guess that if Cornell can beat Brown (a tall order), that they are in the ILT. Thanks, however, for your confidence in my computational skills.

You did a great job with the attack data so I know you can handle this assignment, but CU77 will probably beat you to it.
GOBIGRED
Joewillie78

Possible Ivy Honorees this week:

Goalies did extremely well in terms of both number of saves and save percentages.

POW:

Patrick Burkinshaw, Penn: 20 saves (71%) vs Harvard
Erik Peters, Princeton: 15 saves (60%) vs Dartmouth
Connor Theriault, Brown: 15 saves (56%) vs Yale
Devon McLane, Brown: 6 points (4,2) vs Yale
Sam Handley, Penn: 5 points (4,1) vs Harvard
Sam English, Princeton: 5 points (3,2) vs Dartmouth

ROW:

Coulter Mackesy, Princeton: 3 points (2,1) vs Dartmouth
Jack Kelly, Brown: 4 points (2,2) vs Yale (I am not sure if he is considered a rookie)

Honor Roll:

Chris Brown, Princeton: 5 points (2,3) vs Dartmouth
Matt Bradau, Yale: 7 points (4,3) vs Brown
Dan Hinks, Dartmouth: 15 saves (56%) vs Princeton
Nate Davis, Dartmouth: 3 points (3,0) vs Princeton
CJ Kirst, Cornell: 4 points vs Army (3,1), 5 points (2,3) vs Syracuse
John Piatelli, Cornell: 2 points vs Army (1,1), 9 points (6,3) vs Syracuse
Andrew Geppert, Brown: 3GB, 2CT vs Yale
Luke Gados, Brown: 3GB, 2CT vs Yale

I may have left a few out. It was especially difficult with ROW.

6 Ivy games to go, 2^6 = 64 possible outcomes. In past years I had enough stamina to compute ILT possibilities in all 64 cases.

With apologies to Big Green fans, as of now I'm only going to do the scenarios where Dartmouth does not get an Ivy win this year, which cuts the number down to 16, and I'm only going to do the simplest tie-breaker of record among the tied teams. Complete list of tie-breakers is here: https://ivyleague.com/sports/2018/4/17/ ... 80748.aspx
And I'm not sure how (3a) applies in a case like (C,Y,Pr),(B,H,Pe)

C>B,H>Pr,Y>H,Pr>C: (C,Y,Pr),(B,H,Pe)
C>B,H>Pr,Y>H,C>Pr: C,Y,H,Pr
C>B,H>Pr,H>Y,Pr>C: (C,H,Pr),B
C>B,H>Pr,H>Y,C>Pr: C,H,(B,Pr,Y)

C>B,Pr>H,Y>H,Pr>C: Pr,C,Y,B
C>B,Pr>H,Y>H,C>Pr: C,Y,Pr,B
C>B,Pr>H,H>Y,Pr>C: Pr,C,H,B
C>B,Pr>H,H>Y,C>Pr: C,Pr,H,B

B>C,H>Pr,Y>H,Pr>C: (B,Pr,Y),Pe
B>C,H>Pr,Y>H,C>Pr: B,C,Y,(H,Pe,Pr)
B>C,H>Pr,H>Y,Pr>C: H,Pr,B,(C,Pe,Y)
B>C,H>Pr,H>Y,C>Pr: (B,C,H),Y

B>C,Pr>H,Y>H,Pr>C: Pr,B,Y,Pe
B>C,Pr>H,Y>H,C>Pr: B,C,Y,Pr
B>C,Pr>H,H>Y,Pr>C: Pr,B,Pe,C
B>C,Pr>H,H>Y,C>Pr: (B,C,Pr),(H,Pe,Y)

CU77 wrote: ↑Sat Apr 16, 2022 8:08 pm 6 Ivy games to go, 2^6 = 64 possible outcomes. In past years I had enough stamina to compute ILT possibilities in all 64 cases.

With apologies to Big Green fans, as of now I'm only going to do the scenarios where Dartmouth does not get an Ivy win this year, which cuts the number down to 16, and I'm only going to do the simplest tie-breaker of record among the tied teams. Complete list of tie-breakers is here: https://ivyleague.com/sports/2018/4/17/ ... 80748.aspx
And I'm not sure how (3a) applies in a case like (C,Y,Pr),(B,H,Pe)

C>B,H>Pr,Y>H,Pr>C: (C,Y,Pr),(B,H,Pe)
C>B,H>Pr,Y>H,C>Pr: C,Y,H,Pr
C>B,H>Pr,H>Y,Pr>C: (C,H,Pr),B
C>B,H>Pr,H>Y,C>Pr: C,H,(B,Pr,Y)

C>B,Pr>H,Y>H,Pr>C: Pr,C,Y,B
C>B,Pr>H,Y>H,C>Pr: C,Y,Pr,B
C>B,Pr>H,H>Y,Pr>C: Pr,C,H,B
C>B,Pr>H,H>Y,C>Pr: C,Pr,H,B

B>C,H>Pr,Y>H,Pr>C: (B,Pr,Y),Pe
B>C,H>Pr,Y>H,C>Pr: B,C,Y,(H,Pe,Pr)
B>C,H>Pr,H>Y,Pr>C: H,Pr,B,(C,Pe,Y)
B>C,H>Pr,H>Y,C>Pr: (B,C,H),Y

B>C,Pr>H,Y>H,Pr>C: Pr,B,Y,Pe
B>C,Pr>H,Y>H,C>Pr: B,C,Y,Pr
B>C,Pr>H,H>Y,Pr>C: Pr,B,Pe,C
B>C,Pr>H,H>Y,C>Pr: (B,C,Pr),(H,Pe,Y)

Cu77,
I knew you could completely blow our minds and totally confuse us with your incredible computations and permutations.
Correct me if I'm wrong but according to your data above, their are only 2 scenarios where Cornell would NOT qualify for the ILT?
GOBIGRED
Joewillie78

Absolutely, it's plain to see.

DMac wrote: ↑Sat Apr 16, 2022 8:18 pm Absolutely, it's plain to see.

Thanks, you know those 2 scenarios will haunt me until we are officially in. Again, no one is more superstitious than me.
GOBIGRED
Joewillie78

joewillie78 wrote: ↑Sat Apr 16, 2022 8:27 pm

DMac wrote: ↑Sat Apr 16, 2022 8:18 pm Absolutely, it's plain to see.

Thanks, you know those 2 scenarios will haunt me until we are officially in. Again, no one is more superstitious than me.
GOBIGRED
Joewillie78

Well, 2 + a third which throws Cornell into an indeterminate tiebreaker.

Significantly, Cornell losing their next two games means they have to rely on, say, Harvard beating Yale to get into the ILT. Not a good look. Could happen, sure, but not a situation anyone wants to sweat out.

Brown is looking very dangerous, and Princeton is Princeton; Cornell really has their work cut out for them in the nest two weeks.

Too good a season to look ahead, but with Dartmouth really on the rise I'm going to take better care of myself so I can live to see a season where every Ivy is 3-3 and the tiebreakers are armwrestling contests between head coaches.

I have updated the Ivy standings and remaining games below. Thanks to the Brown upset of Yale and the Harvard loss to Penn, things are murkier now than they were last Friday. The Ivies enjoy six teams in the top 20 of the new media poll and five teams among the top 10 in RPI. As always, ACC bias is alive and well as 5-4 Notre Dame with a #17 RPI ranks ahead of 7-3 Yale and 7-4 Brown despite those Ivy squads boasting better RPIs and better big wins. ND has only two wins over teams with a winning record and one of those was against a 7-6 Michigan squad that has lost six straight. Less egregious, but still curious, is Duke being ranked above Brown and Yale despite a lower RPI and only one signature win over Virginia plus a “nice” win over UNC. I also don’t understand how Brown can be ranked behind Yale and Penn, having just defeated both of those teams. Clearly the voters are not following RPI strictly in these polls, so is it just that laziness that they dissed the Bears? Yale above them, maybe, but no way does Penn deserve a higher ranking.

If things go according to expectations and Massey forecasts this weekend, Princeton and Cornell should lock up their ILT spots with wins over Harvard and Brown respectively. Cornell could finish no worse than 4-2 and Princeton would be no worse than 3-3, owning tiebreakers over Penn, Harvard and Brown.

Harvard at Yale in the last game of the regular season is shaping up to be effectively a first round play-off game. If Harvard loses, they drop to 2-4 and are out of the ILT. Yale would finish at 4-2 and assuming a Brown win over Dartmouth, the ILT would be Cornell, Princeton, Yale and Brown. If Harvard wins, however, there is a real possibility of five teams with a 3-3 record and Harvard would dance thanks to tiebreakers over Brown and Yale. That leaves a three-way tie at 3-3 among Brown, Yale and Penn for the last spot. In that case, Brown would go to the ILT thanks to wins over Yale and Penn.

Probably the craziest twists arise if a surging Brown can upset Cornell on the road Saturday. That leaves Cornell facing Princeton on the road in a game that could determine whether they make the ILT or not. Cornell should hold serve this weekend, but if not, we would have three play-in games on the last weekend of the regular season: Brown/Dartmouth, Harvard/Yale and Cornell/Princeton.

Links to RPI and the Ivy tiebreakers are below. My brain hurts even more this week, but I hope this is somewhat helpful. I may have to leave this math to CU77 in the future!

#8 Cornell 10-2 (3-1) RPI #8
Brown h
Princeton a

#10 Yale 7-3 (3-2) #6 RPI
Albany h
Quinnipiac h
Harvard h

#3 Princeton 9-2 (2-2) #2 RPI
Harvard a
Cornell h

#17 Harvard 7-3 (2-2) RPI #15
Princeton h
Yale a

#14 Brown 7-4 (2-2) RPI #9
Cornell a
Bryant h
Dartmouth h

#13 Penn 5-4 (2-3) RPI #4
Dartmouth a
St. Joe’s h
Albany a

Dartmouth 4-7 (0-4) #34
Penn h
Brown a

https://lacrossereference.com/stats/rpi-d1-men/

https://ivyleague.com/sports/2018/4/17/ ... 80748.aspx

bearlaxfan wrote: ↑Sun Apr 17, 2022 8:34 am Too good a season to look ahead, but with Dartmouth really on the rise I'm going to take better care of myself so I can live to see a season where every Ivy is 3-3 and the tiebreakers are armwrestling contests between head coaches.

If that happens my money is on Cornell.

Can Opener wrote: ↑Mon Apr 18, 2022 10:37 am ACC bias is alive and well as 5-4 Notre Dame with a #17 RPI ranks ahead of 7-3 Yale and 7-4 Brown despite those Ivy squads boasting better RPIs and better big wins. ND has only two wins over teams with a winning record and one of those was against a 7-6 Michigan squad that has lost six straight.

You fail to mention ND over Penn. Two teams with identical records, with Penn owning #5 RPI and ND 17.

ICGrad wrote: ↑Mon Apr 18, 2022 10:47 am

Can Opener wrote: ↑Mon Apr 18, 2022 10:37 am ACC bias is alive and well as 5-4 Notre Dame with a #17 RPI ranks ahead of 7-3 Yale and 7-4 Brown despite those Ivy squads boasting better RPIs and better big wins. ND has only two wins over teams with a winning record and one of those was against a 7-6 Michigan squad that has lost six straight.

You fail to mention ND over Penn. Two teams with identical records, with Penn owning #5 RPI and ND 17.

Why are you trying to get me even more worked up?!?!

I don’t mind the way the ACC’s are ranked. Duke and ND looking pretty good on the eyeball test to me, while Penn doesn’t look too 10 at the moment. Yale and Cornell just had their doors blown off, and as good as Brown has looked the past two weeks, UMass and Harvard losses make a mid teens ranking reasonable.

Fortunately for the IL the only ranking that matter for the selection committee is RPI. They deservedly should get 4 in.

Most likely ILT scenarios should put Princeton/Cornell/Yale/Brown in—which almost certainly means this won’t play out!

RopeUnit wrote: ↑Mon Apr 18, 2022 11:24 am I don’t mind the way the ACC’s are ranked. Duke and ND looking pretty good on the eyeball test to me, while Penn doesn’t look too 10 at the moment. Yale and Cornell just had their doors blown off, and as good as Brown has looked the past two weeks, UMass and Harvard losses make a mid teens ranking reasonable.

Fortunately for the IL the only ranking that matter for the selection committee is RPI. They deservedly should get 4 in.

Most likely ILT scenarios should put Princeton/Cornell/Yale/Brown in—which almost certainly means this won’t play out!

The ACC bias is alive and well. ACC teams are ranked high based on recent performance , ignoring early losses and benefitting from - as usual - "good losses" but Ivies like Brown mean recent performance is not important? And Cornell gets hurt by a good loss to a now top 5 Army team? Who has ND beaten to be ranked? Why ignore Duke's many losses? It gets old.....