All Things Russia & Ukraine

[a fan]

You don't understand the difference between intervention & occupation.

In one, the Russian soldiers wear a tshirt that reads "We're intervening"....and the other has tshirts that read "we're occupiers"??

How'd I do?


This is right up there with "police action". War? What war? I'm told that it's not a war unless our most experienced NCO yells "it's a war!" on the first Thursday of the "police action"

[old salt]

Are we occupying Syria ?

[a fan]

You'd have flunked the entrance exam, based on the intervention vs occupation question.
What has been the downside for Putin ? Sanctions which harm out allies more than him ?

That's not what the professor asked.

If you can't name one single downside for Putin in three wholly separate situations, in three wholly separate countries, then someone must have taken your exams for you at that little college you attended.

Read: you can name dozens. You elect not to, because you're toying with me.

every few years costs Putin much less than it costs us. His troops don't come that far & go home afterwards.

Sure. Today. You're telling me that he's trying to cast more influence. That ain't cheap, speaking as one of the guys who's stuck with the tax tab for the US playing cop to the world.

You wandered into the wrong room Professor. This is the War College seminar. Your philosophy seminar is down the hall.

Yes, but after the philosophy seminar lets out, the Econ Grad students arrive. And they'd like to talk to you about where it is you think all those shiny helmets and bombs and K rations come from....

We both know that Trump will never be able to deal with Putin. ...& there's been so much irrational Russophobic agitprop, I don't see future Presidents being able to do a reset with Putin. This could be another long Cold War, with no detente or START treaties. We've thoroughly politicized our national security interests.

They've always been politicized. What did your party think about Nixon meeting with China? Or Obama when he tried to stop Iran from getting a bomb. Oh yeah, they were super-helpful. Quit acting like Trump is the only guy dealing with this stuff. He signed up for this stupid job. Quit complaining about how hard it is for him. You made no such complaints when Obama had a Congress that hollowed out the military. Remember what you told me at the time? It's Obama job to lead, and get it done.

Shoes on the other foot. Trump has to get it done. At SOME point you have to hold him responsible...we're two years in, and you're STILL not holding him accountable for failed foreign policies.

[old salt]

You don't understand the difference between intervention & occupation.

In one, the Russian soldiers wear a tshirt that reads "We're intervening"....and the other has tshirts that read "we're occupiers"??

How'd I do?

This is right up there with "police action". War? What war? I'm told that it's not a war unless our most experienced NCO yells "it's a war!" on the first Thursday of the "police action"

You win. Can't dispute logic like that. You've weaponized lack of knowledge or understanding. i give up.

[OCanada]

Russia

Vladimir Putin has consolidated Russian power in Moscow’s near abroad and traditional sphere of influence.

The Kremlin has also made moves to increase the country’s influence in the Middle East, North Africa, and South Asia.

More recently, Russia has expanded its reach to Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa, while also making a foray into the Arctic region. Monroe must be turning in his grave. Not that I think it was a side doctrine but great effort has been made to keep Russia out of the Americas and Putin is giving it away.

Putin is clearly emboldened by what he sees as an opening for Russia in the face of increasing U.S. retrenchment around the globe.

Soufan Center slightly edited

[a fan]

You win. Can't dispute logic like that. You've weaponized lack of knowledge or understanding. i give up.

Well for heaven's sake, what difference does it make what you call it? You just told me they have a military port in Syria, right?

And what was the troop count for Russians in Syria? 63,000+, correct? Not exactly what I'd call a spec ops support operation.

And you want to quibble about whether it's an occupation or an intervention?

I'll bite: what do you want to call it?

[a fan]

....and you've still dodged answering the professors question.

It's simply not possible that you can't name several potential and/or actual downsides to Putin's moves in three separate countries.

[old salt]

....and you've still dodged answering the professors question.

It's simply not possible that you can't name several potential and/or actual downsides to Putin's moves in three separate countries.

What's the point in speculating about potential downsides until/unless they happen ? They will be driven by events.
The US & EU are already sanctioning Putin to the max their business interests will tolerate & it hasn't slowed Putin down.
NATO won't react militarily unless Russia engages a member militarily. Putin is engaged in an escalation which costs NATO much more than him.
He has demonstrated that he can intervene in former Soviet Republics & maintain frozen conflicts in Russian ethnic enclaves there, at minimal cost, with no real penalty . He is executing his strategy of undermining western unity, while maintaining trade with them, China & other nonaligned nations which resent US dominance. So far, Putin's strategy is working & will continue. His domestic support is strong & unwavering.

I'm done wasting time debating willfully obtuse faux questions.
Google --> [Military Occupation] & [Military Intervention], then note the differences.
How many casualties has Russia suffered in Syria ?
Russia had 1 fighter jet mistakenly shot down by Turkey, prompting Erdogan to go to Moscow to apologize.
Erdogan's now buying their S-400 & endangering the F-35's tactical advantage, in a standoff which might split NATO.

Russia's intervention in Syria has been, by any standard, a resounding success.
They are filling the vacuum we left in the ME, without the expense of occupation or reconstruction.
His bailout of Obama on Assad's CW red line was a propaganda coup.
He helped negotiate an Iran nuc deal, with flaws he knew would scuttle it when a (R) was elected & further divide NATO.
If only our interventions had been this successful.
I offer this assessment with regret & frustration.
Take it or leave it. Tell yourself whatever gets you through the night.

[a fan]

What's the point in speculating about potential downsides until/unless they happen ?

I'm talking about real life downsides. Right now. If you can't name a single one, your analysis of three separate situations is worthless partisan nonsense...designed to make it look like first, Obama did it wrong, and now "the Russiaphobes" are costing us dearly, and allowing Putin to win.

You're starting with conclusions that suit your political motivated annoyances, and working your way back to a premise.

Essentially you're arguing that Putin is the greatest mind and leader the world has ever seen. No negatives, all positives. It's absurd.

I'm done wasting time debating willfully obtuse faux questions.

I'm giving you real questions, all teed up, and ready to hit

Russia's intervention in Syria has been, by any standard, a resounding success.
They are filling the vacuum we left in the ME, without the expense of occupation or reconstruction.

So having 60,000+ troops in Syria is free now. You're being absurd.

And now that he "has" Syria. What did he get? Don't give me nonsense about having a port that does---what? He can invade a nation?

This is exactly what Obama meant when he said the 80's called, he wants your (Putin's) foreign policy back. Putin is wasting money and supplies acting as though he's going to invade some magic nation to get some magic gold. What he is doing is useless.

But you don't even want to consider this.

His bailout of Obama on Assad's CW red line was a propaganda coup.

A propaganda coup with a media that he controls? Wowee. How does he manage such brilliance?

He helped negotiate an Iran nuc deal, with flaws he knew would scuttle it when a (R) was elected & further divide NATO.
If only our interventions had been this successful.

Why not just give Iran the bomb, if the intention is to get them an eventual nuke? Your sales pitch is that chaos and division is Putin's end goal. Give Iran 10 nukes. Boom, done.

I offer this assessment with regret & frustration.
Take it or leave it. Tell yourself whatever gets you through the night.

My assessment is that what Putin is doing overseas is pointless, and one day, he'll die....making all this sound and fury even more pointless. He's 66. Tick tock. He, like Trump, will pass. Ignore what he does overseas, and hit him for what he does inside the Lower 48.

[old salt]

Putin can remain in office until 2024, without taking measures to stay longer.
Who will follow Putin & when, is a matter of great concern for The West.
Compare Putin to Gorbachev & Yeltsin. He's a survivor.

The cost of occupation & reconstruction is exponentially higher than a limited intervention, like Russia in Syria.
...a fraction of what we spent in Iraq or Afghanistan. In total $$$ cost, probably less than we've expended vs ISIS.
How many forces do we still have in Europe ? ...& now Putin is forcing us to send more.

[a fan]

The cost of occupation & reconstruction is exponentially higher than a limited intervention, like Russia in Syria.
...a fraction of what we spent in Iraq or Afghanistan. In total $$$ cost, probably less than we've expended vs ISIS.

Sure. So far. You left out that the meter is still running in Syria, and for whatever reason, you think Putin "needs" that port.
That won't be free. He's got twice as many troops there than we did before the Obama pull out in Iraq. Sorry, but that's not free.

How many forces do we still have in Europe ? ...& now Putin is forcing us to send more.

We ELECT to have forces in Europe. There's no forcing about it. We can leave any time we want.

[old salt]

The cost of occupation & reconstruction is exponentially higher than a limited intervention, like Russia in Syria.
...a fraction of what we spent in Iraq or Afghanistan. In total $$$ cost, probably less than we've expended vs ISIS.

Sure. So far. You left out that the meter is still running in Syria, and for whatever reason, you think Putin "needs" that port.
That won't be free. He's got twice as many troops there than we did before the Obama pull out in Iraq. Sorry, but that's not free.

How many forces do we still have in Europe ? ...& now Putin is forcing us to send more.

We ELECT to have forces in Europe. There's no forcing about it. We can leave any time we want.

Your manpower accounting is suspect. Compare total US man-years expended in Afghanistan, Iraq & Syria, vs Russia in Syria.

Compare the costs in supporting them from home country. The days at sea for carrier battle groups. The total cost of flight hours & jet fuel expended for ISR, logistics & aerial refueling. The total cost of ordnance expended, exponentially higher for US precision guided munitions.

Syria is in Russia's back yard. A short transit via the Black Sea. Bombers launched from Russia without refueling. Cruise missile attacks across Iran & Iraq from their Caspian Sea fleet.

Compared to our wars & other " low intensity" operations throughout CENTCOM since 9-11, Syria is a low cost operation for Russia.

[a fan]

You can to compare US vs. Russian expenditures? That's fine. Now compare the GDP for Russia with ours. Try not to laugh.

This isn't the Soviet Union. And all these pointless ventures cost money, despite all your protests to the contrary.

We've both had our say, and had a chance to listen to one another. Let's move on, eh?

[old salt]

We've both had our say, and had a chance to listen to one another. Let's move on, eh?

da.

[a fan]

(enjoyed the back and forth, as always, thanks)

[dislaxxic]

WH: Trump Was ‘Making A Joke’ When He Cited Wikileaks Dozens Of Times In ’16

Such a clown, this DOPUS...

..

[old salt]

WH: Trump Was ‘Making A Joke’ When He Cited Wikileaks Dozens Of Times In ’16

...made me laugh. ..

So did the way the MSM treated this WikiLeak, compared to Manning's & Snowden's.
Nobody jumped on the Pulitzer bandwagon.

[dislaxxic]

MANAFORT’S FEDERAL LIFE SENTENCE MIGHT JUST GET LONGER

"The filing suggests it might be appropriate to revisit these issues in six months — on October 15, 2019.

To be sure, there was one distinct investigation among the five topics covered in the breach determination. I compiled what we knew about it here. It pertained to some plan to save Trump as a candidate just before Manafort left in August 2016. Before getting the plea, Manafort had admitted one person was incriminated, but after he pled, he tried to blame someone else who had said he, “did not want to be involved in this at all.”

But that’s just one investigation. Not many. The other topics covered in Manafort’s breach — aside from his own — pertained to:

- The kickback system by which he got paid
- Konstantin Kilimnik, generally
- The sharing of polling data and ongoing discussions about a Ukraine peace deal (AKA sanctions relief)
- Manafort’s ongoing communications with the Trump Administration

Of those, the polling data discussion was the most redacted. And there’s no imaginable content in that material that would need redacted for privacy reasons.

Here I had thought all that material would show up unredacted in Thursday’s public release of the Mueller Report. But it sounds like the investigations formerly known as the Mueller probe may go on for another six months."

..

[old salt]

PMM wrote :
Here I had thought all that material would show up unredacted in Thursday’s public release of the Mueller Report. But it sounds like the investigations formerly known as the Mueller probe may go on for another six months."

Keep hope alive & keep talkin' dirty.

[frmanfan]

Putin is getting his money back from Syria in multiples. More ME influence, now closer ties to Saudi Arabia, convinced Saudis to cut oil production, price of oil going up rapidly, and viola, Russian economy relying on oil sales (30% of GDP is oil and gas) is greatly improved.