LaxPower Back-Up Stick

HopFan16 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 21, 2023 8:39 am Kinda feel like if he was going to be a major factor, it would have happened last season, but who knows. He had a monster year in the BCJALL last summer as well and then didn't play a whole lot at Homewood the following spring. Looked like a contributor early on with goals in three of the first four and then fell out of the mix. Maybe an injury? This will all sort itself out IMO. The offense is as meritocratic as it gets. If you make the case you should play, then you play.

To a point but again only 6 guys can play offense at a time and there is only one ball. Now -assuming this Degnon rumor is true - Hopkins returns its Top 11 point scorers from last year and 95+% of its goals. The other point is that since Hopkins only participated in two blow-out wins and the largest loss differential was 5 - they never had much of a chance to play alot of people beyond the magic number of 23/24. Aside from Ohio State and Bryant - Hopkins never played more than 26 in any of the wins and that incorporates a goalie switch at half against Michigan and a somewhat unusual 3 face-off man rotation when Narewski got back. The nest is very crowded with birds trying to get some food. Phillips played in 11 games - DNP in 7 - injured? - his stats don't scream a need to sit him - Decent shot % on limited attempts - 8 gbs - not a turnover machine. AND here's why I think you might need to see if he can do anything consitently - aside from Melendez - who assuming he returns it will be as a grad student probably - Phillips is the only senior to be that has played any offense as Teachout (1 game in 2 years) and Charboneau (3 games in 2 years) have recorded zero stats. I guess you don't need him this coming season but it would be nice for him to have a trajectory that can see him contribute mid teens in goals in '25

Brooks English goal last night,

https://twitter.com/HNLiveCA/status/169 ... it%2F61989

10stone5 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 21, 2023 1:06 pm Brook English goal last night,

https://twitter.com/HNLiveCA/status/169 ... it%2F61989

That's Ty, not Brooks

51percentcorn wrote: ↑Mon Aug 21, 2023 9:59 am

HopFan16 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 21, 2023 8:39 am Kinda feel like if he was going to be a major factor, it would have happened last season, but who knows. He had a monster year in the BCJALL last summer as well and then didn't play a whole lot at Homewood the following spring. Looked like a contributor early on with goals in three of the first four and then fell out of the mix. Maybe an injury? This will all sort itself out IMO. The offense is as meritocratic as it gets. If you make the case you should play, then you play.

To a point but again only 6 guys can play offense at a time and there is only one ball. Now -assuming this Degnon rumor is true - Hopkins returns its Top 11 point scorers from last year and 95+% of its goals. The other point is that since Hopkins only participated in two blow-out wins and the largest loss differential was 5 - they never had much of a chance to play alot of people beyond the magic number of 23/24. Aside from Ohio State and Bryant - Hopkins never played more than 26 in any of the wins and that incorporates a goalie switch at half against Michigan and a somewhat unusual 3 face-off man rotation when Narewski got back. The nest is very crowded with birds trying to get some food. Phillips played in 11 games - DNP in 7 - injured? - his stats don't scream a need to sit him - Decent shot % on limited attempts - 8 gbs - not a turnover machine. AND here's why I think you might need to see if he can do anything consitently - aside from Melendez - who assuming he returns it will be as a grad student probably - Phillips is the only senior to be that has played any offense as Teachout (1 game in 2 years) and Charboneau (3 games in 2 years) have recorded zero stats. I guess you don't need him this coming season but it would be nice for him to have a trajectory that can see him contribute mid teens in goals in '25

I'll take the repercussions of having lots of potential sitting on the bench for a year if it means the lineup we put out on the field is loaded.

I would not be against a "cupcake" game or two to have the opportunity to mix more guys in but not at the expense of crafting the best RPI schedule possible. That's the top priority. Got to hand it to PM for putting together a near perfect schedule in 2023...plenty of people (e.g. The Black Hole) were freaking out about it but it turned out to be warranted and earned us a home game. Replace a couple teams with a UMBC or a MSM and all of a sudden maybe our metrics are bubble worthy — or even on the outside looking in. The margins can be thin.

Ideal scenario — you're so good that some on-paper tough matchups become "cupcakes" a la UVA vs. Harvard/Richmond last year and you're able to involve more guys into games that the Sags and 06s of the world never thought would be possible. The other thing to keep in mind is, you don't want to blow a future key player's eligibility by playing him in 2-3 games in garbage time. That little bit of game experience isn't worth losing the entire season of eligibility. Hopefully Smith is able to get his 2021 year back (if he wants it) but they may have blown that chance by giving him a pointless cup of coffee in two games.

HopFan16 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 21, 2023 1:16 pm

10stone5 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 21, 2023 1:06 pm Brooks English goal last night,

https://twitter.com/HNLiveCA/status/169 ... it%2F61989

That's Ty, not Brooks

That’s IL - they had that highlight listed as Brooks.

Still, those two are interchangeable on that team.

USA Lacrosse Magazine has us at 6 in preseason ranking. Seems reasonable to me. We have much to be optimistic about but not enough to warrant arrogance.

https://www.usalaxmagazine.com/college/ ... sion-i-men

Well of course the first thing that bears mention is the fact that lacrosse rankings in August mean less than nothing. But I don't think there is any arrogance - certainly not on '06's part as he misses the mark on several items in his comments on the way too early thread. There IS reason for optimism: you win 2/3rds of your games - make the quarterfinals for the first time since '18 I think - have the eventual national champs have to sit up and take notice as you cut the lead to 1 in the 3rd quarter - and you return virtually everyone. Before the season last year reasonable fans were saying there was a possibility that the '23 edition would be better than the 22 team because of a) better talent b) addition by subtraction. It worked out that way. Funny things about sports - things don't always work out the way you plan - see the Yankees/Padres and Mets for example. I would characterize the state of the team - this assumes no major injuries which is always the number 1 wild card:
- Goalie - they reached the quarters and a 67% win record with a goalie that was well under 50% since the Navy game on March 17th - close to 2 months - in only 2 games past that date - Rutgers and the rout of Bryant was the goalie above 50% and only against Rutgers and the BIG Tournament game against Maryland did he even reach double digits in saves. They have clearly done all they can to upgrade the position for this year. Ierlan has also had some stinkers but overall demonstrates more consistency
- Offense - if the Degnon rumor is true they are returning their Top 11 points producers. Another year together another year in Crawley's system the results should be better. I know '16 doesn't necessarily agree with me on this but the one thing I wonder about is the apparent lack of playing time for a talented freshmen class. Hopefully the coaches will do a good job of integrating some of them.
- Close Defense - Your loss is the player who was the man down specialist - Ruddy - while that role should not be ignored or denigrated - one would hope on a roster of 58 people you can find someone to do an adequate job and replace 8 ground balls and 3 CTOs. The man down unit performed well (33% opponent success rate). You have an AA caliber player in Smith - a much underappreciated player in Szuluk and a star in the making in Brown. Depth is there in numbers if not in experience - though both Deans and Kaufman would appear to have the capability to play close if necessary - but you have Todaro - very highly regarded beset by injuries - 3 rising sophs - and 4 I think freshmen including the high 4* HSAA NB AA etc Kilrain and a transfer.
- Rope - OK here's where Mazzone and Hawley matter (including Hawley here) so 110 ground balls walked out the door. Funny thing though - does everyone realize Mazzone was NOT a total ground ball monster at Georgetown - he was certainly very good but the 77 Hopkins gbs nearly eclipses his last 3 years for the Hoyas (32/33/22). His reputation was more built on CTOs. So that says to me he played significantly more wing on face-offs at Hopkins than at Georgetown so in part the stats are a matter of opportunity. So of course Hopkins is going to miss Mazzone for a variety of reasons - it remains to be seen how much and the fact remains he is the only major piece gone and that is certainly the lowest number of mising pieces that I can tell for the top teams. Kaufman/Deans/Brown certainly are capable and the SSDMs return intact with a talented transfer. Deans played in 10 games - scored 4 goals - 1 assist - 8 ground balls and 6 CTOS without turning the ball over once. More please.
- Face-offs - this is a bit of a broken record but someone with 2 patellar tendon tears probably should not have been playing and while his leadership and grit will undoubtedly be missed - he was not the same since before the injuries. So clearly this is a bit of an issue but Narewski - just 50% for last year was not an automatic solution. Dunn had the best percentage for the year and Callahan took a step back it seemed jumping early alot to my perception. It is unclear if Lane or the freshman can contribute. The other fact is that while it's always good to start with a possession - Penn State was not dominant on face-offs - could have beaten Duke with a dominant face-off man and Notre Dame of course did whip Duke and took down UVA also with a dominant face-off man so it can be done (of course it is fair to point out that Penn state and Notre Dame had the 2 best goalies in the country which helps counteract face-off deficits if they exist).

- This is just based on what I've seen but Callahan seems like a guy who needs reps and gets better as the game goes along. He was not great in spot duty when only getting a handful of draws. But in games last season when he took at least 10 faceoffs, he was 10/13, 12/21, 7/15, 10/24, 5/11 — good for 52.3%, and that was against some good FOGOs. The pattern was similar in '22 — in the only two games where he actually took the bulk of draws, he was 18/23 and 11/21. So it's not a massive leap to suggest that if he absorbs some of the work vacated by Narewski and is more of the 1B to Dunn's 1A rather than a change-of-pace option, he'll improve on the 45.6% from this past season and be closer to the 55% of his freshman year. Even splitting the difference and finishing around 50% — to go along with Dunn's presumed ~50%, would be meaningful. You'd probably rather have one guy who can go 60%, but having two at 50% ain't bad either, and it at least gives you a chance in every game. I know little about the frosh apart from what's available online — he was 65% in his career at Bergen Catholic if NJ.com stats are accurate.

- My guess is Brown slides into the 3rd spot at close D, while Deans and Kaufman stay at LSM. He only took 1 shot all season and did not register any other offensive statistics — probably means they're safe to keep him down low while allowing Deans/Kaufman to fly up and down the field in transition.

- I wonder if Stoebner steps into the Ruddy role as 4th defenseman/man-down specialist, a role similar to the one he had at Princeton. If not, maybe that goes to one of the freshmen as a way to build experience for when Szuluk and maybe Smith graduate next year.

- I'm excited about the SSDM corps with the addition of Aviles. I hinted at this during the season but Martin was flat out not practicing for the final month of the season. He was hobbling around in a boot during the week and then suiting up on gamedays. Getting him back to full health alongside Jaronski, Raposo (who really impressed me), Aviles, Ince, and others...you might have something there at arguably the sport's most important position group. And then there is the possibility of someone like Billings emerging. He got some run in the BCJALL this summer, though I believe still playing with a brace on his knee.

- I said it in the rankings thread but I'll repeat it here — anywhere between preseason #4 and #7 feels acceptable to me. It's a top ~5ish team that returns almost everyone and adds some talent through the portal and freshman class. They're going to be good. Final Four good? We'll see.

51percentcorn wrote: ↑Fri Aug 25, 2023 11:03 am Well of course the first thing that bears mention is the fact that lacrosse rankings in August mean less than nothing.

I got to disagree. These rankings mean a whole lot - not in predicting who the best teams are, but in where prospects decide to go. Last August, the same group had JHU rated 25th, below schools like BU, Richmond, and Jacksonville. Top prospects want to go to teams that are going to win and I have to believe that when that article came out (less than a month before the '24s commitments) it had an effect on some recruits decisions. A potential recruit might see JHU and G'town as similar academically - last year G'town was #3 and JHU #25 - are we seriously saying this will not influence a decision?

HopFan16 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 25, 2023 11:35 am - I'm excited about the SSDM corps with the addition of Aviles.

I would pump the breaks a bit in regards to Aviles. He is a good player but on defense he has essentially one move. He has a very aggressive poke check that can cause turnovers, but he's not the biggest guy on the team and can get overwhelmed physically. Also he's not a game changer on face-off wings. His best season (and only one where he was fully healthy minus 2020) in '22 he averaged 2.2 groundballs a game. And he was the Orange's main short stick face-off wing.

I think he showed a lot of promise his freshman year but I'm not sure he developed the way he could have. Perhaps a year fully healthy or a different coaching staff helps change that.

Powellfan22 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 25, 2023 3:27 pm

HopFan16 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 25, 2023 11:35 am - I'm excited about the SSDM corps with the addition of Aviles.

I would pump the breaks a bit in regards to Aviles. He is a good player but on defense he has essentially one move. He has a very aggressive poke check that can cause turnovers, but he's not the biggest guy on the team and can get overwhelmed physically. Also he's not a game changer on face-off wings. His best season (and only one where he was fully healthy minus 2020) in '22 he averaged 2.2 groundballs a game. And he was the Orange's main short stick face-off wing.

I think he showed a lot of promise his freshman year but I'm not sure he developed the way he could have. Perhaps a year fully healthy or a different coaching staff helps change that.

I didn't even really say anything about Aviles specifically. It was more about the group as a whole. He was your best guy and will probably be #3-4 for us. Thus the optimism. If the #4 SSDM is a "good player who can cause turnovers" and won't be relied on as the top SSDM option then the unit as a whole is probably going be pretty good. That's solid depth. That was my point.

I watched him play for team Puerto Rico this summer — definitely has more offense to his game than what was seen at Syracuse. I have no clue if that was intentional but maybe you have some insight there. My guess is he will have the green light in transition at the very least, perhaps even getting to stay on to play O occasionally.

Wood Sticks 4ever wrote: ↑Fri Aug 25, 2023 3:19 pm I got to disagree. These rankings mean a whole lot - not in predicting who the best teams are, but in where prospects decide to go.

Couldn't disagree more - I could have just as easily written the Top 25 and I would have come pretty darn close to what the US Lax "expert" picked. Any player about to get his cell phone flooded with texts/calls whatever on Sept 1 is more than aware of which teams played well last year - which teams are perhaps on the rise and which teams may have fallen off some. Doesn't take ol Albert E to figure out the Top 5 might be the final four from last year + Maryland - US Lax really stepping out on a limb there. I seriously doubt Milliman/Crawley (as the Director of recruiting) is going to tell Josh Marcus or any other recruit - Hey we're number 6 in the US Lax poll in August. That's just stupid. He's got way better things to talk about. They need to convince recuits they want a title or plural and the recruit can help them get there.

Not to mention lacrosse os still a sport where recruits actually should be thinking about the academic and social experience fit for them - not whether John Jones picked the school in friggin August. It's click bait and bar stool discussion - they've succeeded in this tiny little world.

51percentcorn wrote: ↑Fri Aug 25, 2023 6:31 pm

Wood Sticks 4ever wrote: ↑Fri Aug 25, 2023 3:19 pm I got to disagree. These rankings mean a whole lot - not in predicting who the best teams are, but in where prospects decide to go.

I could have just as easily written the Top 25 and I would have come pretty darn close to what the US Lax "expert" picked.

Just take last years final rankings and tweak them a little bit based on "losses" , "transfers" and "incoming." That's about all they do.
I'm hoping some of our current players like Melendez, Collison, English, and Grimes can take their game to the next level in '24 and that at least some freshmen can crack the lineup. H. Chauvette looked blue chip to me. Can't see him riding the pine for a year.

‘24 flip to Yale, reported by Xanders.

“ 4 senior Matthew Surin '24, LSM/D, Taft (Conn.) / @PrimeTimeLax08 has flipped from Hopkins to @YaleLacrosse. Among the most dramatically improved players in the class, Surin is 6'3 and capable up top or down low, has an awesome stick and plays with a mean streak.”

Hoponboard wrote: ↑Sat Aug 26, 2023 1:24 pm ‘24 flip to Yale, reported by Xanders.

“ 4 senior Matthew Surin '24, LSM/D, Taft (Conn.) / @PrimeTimeLax08 has flipped from Hopkins to @YaleLacrosse. Among the most dramatically improved players in the class, Surin is 6'3 and capable up top or down low, has an awesome stick and plays with a mean streak.”

When Chauvette flipped I figured Shay was going to make it his mission to do the same to us. Wonder how many Hop recruits he contacted.

Burlington (English/Rawson) takes game 1 of the Minto over Coquitlam (Phillips/Charboneau) in overtime. If Burlington wins again tonight they should all be able to make it back to Homewood for the start of classes on Monday. As it is, Rawson has missed very crucial opportunities to watch mediocre acapella and play bingo at freshman orientation. If Coquitlam wins they play a game 3 Sunday.

HopFan16 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 25, 2023 3:51 pm

Powellfan22 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 25, 2023 3:27 pm

HopFan16 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 25, 2023 11:35 am - I'm excited about the SSDM corps with the addition of Aviles.

I would pump the breaks a bit in regards to Aviles. He is a good player but on defense he has essentially one move. He has a very aggressive poke check that can cause turnovers, but he's not the biggest guy on the team and can get overwhelmed physically. Also he's not a game changer on face-off wings. His best season (and only one where he was fully healthy minus 2020) in '22 he averaged 2.2 groundballs a game. And he was the Orange's main short stick face-off wing.

I think he showed a lot of promise his freshman year but I'm not sure he developed the way he could have. Perhaps a year fully healthy or a different coaching staff helps change that.

I didn't even really say anything about Aviles specifically. It was more about the group as a whole. He was your best guy and will probably be #3-4 for us. Thus the optimism. If the #4 SSDM is a "good player who can cause turnovers" and won't be relied on as the top SSDM option then the unit as a whole is probably going be pretty good. That's solid depth. That was my point.

I watched him play for team Puerto Rico this summer — definitely has more offense to his game than what was seen at Syracuse. I have no clue if that was intentional but maybe you have some insight there. My guess is he will have the green light in transition at the very least, perhaps even getting to stay on to play O occasionally.

Yep, good point about going from top ssdm to a reserve type. Though I guess I’d say being the best ssdm for SU last year isn’t saying much. Surprised they didn’t go after that position harder in the portal but that’s a conversation for a different thread.

There was talk that Petro didn’t like his SSDMs to push transition. Not sure the validity of that but it’s not too hard to believe. Lots of SU fans wanted him to get more offensive reps or push more in transition. Perhaps he can be a sort of designated transition player who can get up and down the field for Hopkins. Best of luck to him.

HopFan16 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 26, 2023 4:00 pm

Hoponboard wrote: ↑Sat Aug 26, 2023 1:24 pm ‘24 flip to Yale, reported by Xanders.

“ 4 senior Matthew Surin '24, LSM/D, Taft (Conn.) / @PrimeTimeLax08 has flipped from Hopkins to @YaleLacrosse. Among the most dramatically improved players in the class, Surin is 6'3 and capable up top or down low, has an awesome stick and plays with a mean streak.”

When Chauvette flipped I figured Shay was going to make it his mission to do the same to us. Wonder how many Hop recruits he contacted.

More likely it was a case of a guy committing to a school that two Taft teammates (Moynihan ‘23 and Friedman ‘24) had already chosen. It’s also possible that Surin looked at projected line-ups and the fact that experienced transfers at his position are more of a possibility at JHU and thought he’d have a more direct path to the field at Yale. Decommitments are fairly common now; it’s not likely that the Yale HC swore vengeance when Chauvette chose to head to Homewood to play at JHU with his older brother.

The Orfling wrote: ↑Sat Aug 26, 2023 8:57 pm

HopFan16 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 26, 2023 4:00 pm

Hoponboard wrote: ↑Sat Aug 26, 2023 1:24 pm ‘24 flip to Yale, reported by Xanders.

“ 4 senior Matthew Surin '24, LSM/D, Taft (Conn.) / @PrimeTimeLax08 has flipped from Hopkins to @YaleLacrosse. Among the most dramatically improved players in the class, Surin is 6'3 and capable up top or down low, has an awesome stick and plays with a mean streak.”

When Chauvette flipped I figured Shay was going to make it his mission to do the same to us. Wonder how many Hop recruits he contacted.

More likely it was a case of a guy committing to a school that two Taft teammates (Moynihan ‘23 and Friedman ‘24) had already chosen. It’s also possible that Surin looked at projected line-ups and the fact that experienced transfers at his position are more of a possibility at JHU and thought he’d have a more direct path to the field at Yale. Decommitments are fairly common now; it’s not likely that the Yale HC swore vengeance when Chauvette chose to head to Homewood to play at JHU with his older brother.

Agreed.

They FUBAR’d the prior score, turns out Burlington won the prior game in double overtime.

Rawson with a good game, good D from the English brothers, the OSU kid was good all year as well as the playoffs offensive MOP from Princeton - Rawson and English and team win the Minto cup and they’ll be back in time for start of classes.

The Orfling wrote: ↑Sat Aug 26, 2023 8:57 pm

HopFan16 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 26, 2023 4:00 pm

Hoponboard wrote: ↑Sat Aug 26, 2023 1:24 pm ‘24 flip to Yale, reported by Xanders.

“ 4 senior Matthew Surin '24, LSM/D, Taft (Conn.) / @PrimeTimeLax08 has flipped from Hopkins to @YaleLacrosse. Among the most dramatically improved players in the class, Surin is 6'3 and capable up top or down low, has an awesome stick and plays with a mean streak.”

When Chauvette flipped I figured Shay was going to make it his mission to do the same to us. Wonder how many Hop recruits he contacted.

More likely it was a case of a guy committing to a school that two Taft teammates (Moynihan ‘23 and Friedman ‘24) had already chosen. It’s also possible that Surin looked at projected line-ups and the fact that experienced transfers at his position are more of a possibility at JHU and thought he’d have a more direct path to the field at Yale. Decommitments are fairly common now; it’s not likely that the Yale HC swore vengeance when Chauvette chose to head to Homewood to play at JHU with his older brother.

I was being sarcastic because Shay has a history of flipping Hopkins commits

10stone5 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 26, 2023 10:55 pm They FUBAR’d the prior score, turns out Burlington won the prior game in double overtime.

Rawson with a good game, good D from the English brothers, the OSU kid was good all year as well as the playoffs offensive MOP from Princeton - Rawson and English and team win the Minto cup and they’ll be back in time for start of classes.

Still don't get why they hardly gave Brooks any runs on offense, but, obviously, it worked out. Hell of a summer. I don't expect those guys to play much in the fall.

It’s not just Hopkins kids that Shay goes after