All things Chinese CoronaVirus

[Bart]

A really good overview of the effects of COVID-19. As it turns out, underlying conditions are more important than age in determining outcomes.

After reading this, do you still want to go the herd immunity route? With all people in the US with these underlying issues, Cardiovascular Disease, High blood pressure, smokers ect, do you think we have the capacity to "cacoon" them all? I guess that is the million dollar question.

[youthathletics]

Based on today's presser -- sounds like testing will be limited to those clinically diagnosed.
No mention of systematic testing/sampling to map undiagnosed community spread.

In my amateur analysis, 3 US hot spot clusters @ now :
1. Seattle, WA area
2. New Rochelle, NY
3. Santa Clara Co, CA

We got the D team on it:

Ask your wife if she believes there is possibility that the testing at smaller rural locals (not CDC) could be false positives for covid19, considering we are also not getting active updates of conventional seasonal flu as normal.

Maybe, just maybe, they are blended.

What’s blended?

Combination of cv19 and seasonal flu diagnosis.

no, two different tests.

Yup, most flu testing is now done point of care with a single purpose test. Takes 15 minutes tops, a child could do it, I am told. Unlikely flu test will false positive for COVID, they are not in the same family of bugs. Bigger concern is flu test false negative (you have flu and the test comes back negative). At present no small rural labs are doing COVID-19 testing. They aren't getting the kits.

From my understanding, week as it is, the current COVID-19 tests are real time PCR tests looking at distinct nucleic acid sequences in the Virus DNA. These are not simple finger stick blood tests that are looking at IgG/IgM antibodies to the virus. The machine used to do real time PCR while not all that complicated to run, is a specialty piece of equipment. I would wonder how many small rural labs would have them, I'd hope all would but I do not know. I would also doubt there would be any cross over between the flu and COVID-19 in these tests. I could see false positives, depending on the stringency of the primer used in the PCR.

Thanks.

Earlier in the day yesterday I questioned why CDC numbers differ significantly than the numbers on that JHU interactive website. At that point, many started to speak negatively of the CDC...as if to imply a clown show. Then we hear rural areas do not have test kits, then we read your post Bart and it sounds like it requires a machine to be certain....not a little 15 minute test kit as others have speculated.

Certainly the death percentage can be skewed if we do not fully and equally document across the board. CDC has the total at 647, with many still being investigated. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... in-us.html

[Typical Lax Dad]

Yea, like peanut butter and jelly.

I am going to ask.

No. After screening for run of the mill coronavirus, if positive, the test is run for Covid-19. It’s a PCR based test.

[youthathletics]

WHO Says More Than 70% Of Coronavirus Patients In China Have Recovered (But Keep Washing Your Hands)

https://tanksgoodnews.com/2020/03/10/wo ... ronavirus/

[youthathletics]

Yea, like peanut butter and jelly.

I am going to ask.

No. After screening for run of the mill coronavirus, if positive, the test is run for Covid-19. It’s a PCR based test.

Thanks. I found this while doing some reading this morning. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... ories.html

I am still baffled why the CDC number differs so much (lower). Maybe it is because the test kits have not reached all the parts of US...and if that is the case, then how do those rural areas certify it is in fact CV19.

[Trinity]

China is testing hundreds of thousands a day. S Korea 15000 a day.

[CU88]

Public health is national security.

Fed needs to step up its game on getting more test kits out.

Shutting down travel and cancelling large gatherings/events is a must to flatten that infection/infected curve.

If economy is concern, then put cash into the hands of ALL Citizens, don't simply bail out a select few industries.

Isolation is NOT seclusion.

9:30 Cspan:

Dr. Redfield, Dr. Fauci & Others Testify on Coronavirus Response
Dr. Robert Redfield and Dr. Anthony Fauci along with other emergency response officials testify on the coronavirus outbreak before the House Oversight & Reform Committee.

https://www.c-span.org/video/?470224-1/ ... s-response

[foreverlax]

These underlying conditions make coronavirus more severe, and they're surprisingly common

The idea that the virus only poses a threat to older people comes from focusing too heavily on COVID-19’s death rate, which the World Health Organization updated last Wednesday to 3.4 percent. This rate is an average across ages, and the chances of dying do rise among older people.

But evidence also shows that COVID-19 is more fatal across all age groups than seasonal influenza, with death rates six to 10 times higher for those under 50. Moreover, death isn’t the only danger, and severe cases of COVID-19 are more common among young adults than you might think.

[OCanada]

Expect more of these kinds of announcements

[foreverlax]

Public health is national security.

Fed needs to step up its game on getting more test kits out.

Shutting down travel and cancelling large gatherings/events is a must to flatten that infection/infected curve.

If economy is concern, then put cash into the hands of ALL Citizens, don't simply bail out a select few industries.

Isolation is NOT seclusion.

9:30 Cspan:

Dr. Redfield, Dr. Fauci & Others Testify on Coronavirus Response
Dr. Robert Redfield and Dr. Anthony Fauci along with other emergency response officials testify on the coronavirus outbreak before the House Oversight & Reform Committee.

https://www.c-span.org/video/?470224-1/ ... s-response

Heard a talking head talking about the idea of allowing FEMA, by charter, to participate in "epidemics"....as natural disasters.

[MDlaxfan76]

China is testing hundreds of thousands a day. S Korea 15000 a day.

Yup; entirely possible to do...but they didn't believe the fiction that the virus could be 'stopped at the border', so they put their full weight behind testing and then containing those found, while slowing the infection curve by enforcing/encouraging social separation.

What's crazy to me is that we still don't have the tests...

[Zonesurgeon]

Oh boy ... 752 confirmed cases, with 26 dead. We will hit 1,000 cases within two days. So far, mortality rate has been close to the global rate of 3.5%

Not good. Coronavirus is not anywhere near being well-managed in the U.S.

DocBarrister

Two days?!?

Try one day. The United States just crossed the 1,000 case mark.

As I write this, 1,025 confirmed cases.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

DocBarrister

In my non-expert opinion, it is ridiculous to think that the number of cases is only at 1,000. If you take a step back and look the facts that we know are certain, we know this:

1. The first case in Wuhan happened in late December
2. The NYC lawyer, who was confirmed with this illness a little over a week ago, infected nearly every single person he came in contact with including his family and many associates

Looking at these two absolute facts, there is simply no way that this was the first case in such a big city. Given how easily COVID spreads, it is extremely improbable that it took over two months for the disease to get from China to NYC. The extremely contagious nature of this sickness means it has probably already been in NYC for weeks if not over a month (well before everyone began altering their normal habits to try and prevent becoming infected). This means that there were weeks when many people had it, and were spreading it. The family of the lawyer came out and said that they all have it, but have not had any symptoms. This fact leads me to believe that a huge portion of NYC has already been exposed/contracted it, but the majority of the cases are unknown because the symptoms do not present themselves. I am not trying to diminish the severity of certain cases by saying this, but rather note what many others have said, in that the hysteria/panic has made the illness seem far more detrimental than it is in reality.

[jhu72]

A really good overview of the effects of COVID-19. As it turns out, underlying conditions are more important than age in determining outcomes.

After reading this, do you still want to go the herd immunity route? With all people in the US with these underlying issues, Cardiovascular Disease, High blood pressure, smokers ect, do you think we have the capacity to "cacoon" them all? I guess that is the million dollar question.

Nope. This pretty much shoots down any plan to use mom's solution.

[jhu72]

Based on today's presser -- sounds like testing will be limited to those clinically diagnosed.
No mention of systematic testing/sampling to map undiagnosed community spread.

In my amateur analysis, 3 US hot spot clusters @ now :
1. Seattle, WA area
2. New Rochelle, NY
3. Santa Clara Co, CA

We got the D team on it:

Ask your wife if she believes there is possibility that the testing at smaller rural locals (not CDC) could be false positives for covid19, considering we are also not getting active updates of conventional seasonal flu as normal.

Maybe, just maybe, they are blended.

What’s blended?

Combination of cv19 and seasonal flu diagnosis.

no, two different tests.

Yup, most flu testing is now done point of care with a single purpose test. Takes 15 minutes tops, a child could do it, I am told. Unlikely flu test will false positive for COVID, they are not in the same family of bugs. Bigger concern is flu test false negative (you have flu and the test comes back negative). At present no small rural labs are doing COVID-19 testing. They aren't getting the kits.

From my understanding, week as it is, the current COVID-19 tests are real time PCR tests looking at distinct nucleic acid sequences in the Virus DNA. These are not simple finger stick blood tests that are looking at IgG/IgM antibodies to the virus. The machine used to do real time PCR while not all that complicated to run, is a specialty piece of equipment. I would wonder how many small rural labs would have them, I'd hope all would but I do not know. I would also doubt there would be any cross over between the flu and COVID-19 in these tests. I could see false positives, depending on the stringency of the primer used in the PCR.

The current CDC / Maryland DoH testing guidelines (I saw them - last night) for their test require you to submit two culture swabs and serum. There was also some confusing verbiage about a stool sample, that it looks like they retracted. Wife was going to get clarification today. Their original defective test set only required serum, is my understanding. My take was that the current test was more than a typical PCR.

[DocBarrister]

WHO Says More Than 70% Of Coronavirus Patients In China Have Recovered (But Keep Washing Your Hands)

https://tanksgoodnews.com/2020/03/10/wo ... ronavirus/

You do understand that is a pretty bad number, right?

DocBarrister

[jhu72]

Based on today's presser -- sounds like testing will be limited to those clinically diagnosed.
No mention of systematic testing/sampling to map undiagnosed community spread.

In my amateur analysis, 3 US hot spot clusters @ now :
1. Seattle, WA area
2. New Rochelle, NY
3. Santa Clara Co, CA

We got the D team on it:

Ask your wife if she believes there is possibility that the testing at smaller rural locals (not CDC) could be false positives for covid19, considering we are also not getting active updates of conventional seasonal flu as normal.

Maybe, just maybe, they are blended.

What’s blended?

Combination of cv19 and seasonal flu diagnosis.

no, two different tests.

Yup, most flu testing is now done point of care with a single purpose test. Takes 15 minutes tops, a child could do it, I am told. Unlikely flu test will false positive for COVID, they are not in the same family of bugs. Bigger concern is flu test false negative (you have flu and the test comes back negative). At present no small rural labs are doing COVID-19 testing. They aren't getting the kits.

From my understanding, week as it is, the current COVID-19 tests are real time PCR tests looking at distinct nucleic acid sequences in the Virus DNA. These are not simple finger stick blood tests that are looking at IgG/IgM antibodies to the virus. The machine used to do real time PCR while not all that complicated to run, is a specialty piece of equipment. I would wonder how many small rural labs would have them, I'd hope all would but I do not know. I would also doubt there would be any cross over between the flu and COVID-19 in these tests. I could see false positives, depending on the stringency of the primer used in the PCR.

Thanks.

Earlier in the day yesterday I questioned why CDC numbers differ significantly than the numbers on that JHU interactive website. At that point, many started to speak negatively of the CDC...as if to imply a clown show. Then we hear rural areas do not have test kits, then we read your post Bart and it sounds like it requires a machine to be certain....not a little 15 minute test kit as others have speculated.

Certainly the death percentage can be skewed if we do not fully and equally document across the board. CDC has the total at 647, with many still being investigated. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... in-us.html

Two points:

1) no one has said the COVID-19 test takes 15 minutes. THE FLU point of care test takes 15 minutes.

2) the CDC numbers are different because they are only reporting the results from the tests THAT THEY RUN in their lab (or perhaps contract outside). It has nothing to do with technology.

[youthathletics]

WHO Says More Than 70% Of Coronavirus Patients In China Have Recovered (But Keep Washing Your Hands)

https://tanksgoodnews.com/2020/03/10/wo ... ronavirus/

You do understand that is a pretty bad number, right?

DocBarrister

Certainly, I'd be more interested in what those 30%ers have in common.....age, pre-existing conditions, etc.

[Kismet]

Re-posting this from a former D3 coach who initially posted it in the D3 forum - thought folks here should read it, too. It's from an expert in the field.

formerD3coach wrote: This message was sent to me. I found it to be an intriguing perspective.

"I'm a doctor and an Infectious Diseases Specialist. I've been at this for more than 20 years seeing sick patients on a daily basis. I have worked in inner city hospitals and in the poorest slums of Africa. HIV-AIDS, Hepatitis,TB, SARS, Measles, Shingles, Whooping cough, Diphtheria...there is little I haven't been exposed to in my profession. And with notable exception of SARS, very little has left me feeling vulnerable, overwhelmed or downright scared.

I am not scared of Covid-19. I am concerned about the implications of a novel infectious agent that has spread the world over and continues to find new footholds in different soil. I am rightly concerned for the welfare of those who are elderly, in frail health or disenfranchised who stand to suffer mostly, and disproportionately, at the hands of this new scourge. But I am not scared of Covid-19.

What I am scared about is the loss of reason and wave of fear that has induced the masses of society into a spellbinding spiral of panic, stockpiling obscene quantities of anything that could fill a bomb shelter adequately in a post-apocalyptic world. I am scared of the N95 masks that are stolen from hospitals and urgent care clinics where they are actually needed for front line healthcare providers and instead are being donned in airports, malls, and coffee lounges, perpetuating even more fear and suspicion of others. I am scared that our hospitals will be overwhelmed with anyone who thinks they " probably don't have it but may as well get checked out no matter what because you just never know..." and those with heart failure, emphysema, pneumonia and strokes will pay the price for overfilled ER waiting rooms with only so many doctors and nurses to assess.

I am scared that travel restrictions will become so far reaching that weddings will be canceled, graduations missed and family reunions will not materialize. And well, even that big party called the Olympic Games...that could be kyboshed too. Can you even
imagine?

I'm scared those same epidemic fears will limit trade, harm partnerships in multiple sectors, business and otherwise and ultimately culminate in a global recession.

But mostly, I'm scared about what message we are telling our kids when faced with a threat. Instead of reason, rationality, openmindedness and altruism, we are telling them to panic, be fearful, suspicious, reactionary and self-interested.

Covid-19 is nowhere near over. It will be coming to a city, a hospital, a friend, even a family member near you at some point. Expect it. Stop waiting to be surprised further. The fact is the virus itself will not likely do much harm when it arrives. But our own behaviors and "fight for yourself above all else" attitude could prove disastrous.

I implore you all. Temper fear with reason, panic with patience and uncertainty with education. We have an opportunity to learn a great deal about health hygiene and limiting the spread of innumerable transmissible diseases in our society. Let's meet this challenge together in the best spirit of compassion for others, patience, and above all, an unfailing effort to seek truth, facts and knowledge as opposed to conjecture, speculation and catastrophizing.

Facts not fear. Clean hands. Open hearts.
Our children will thank us for it."

[jhu72]

Yea, like peanut butter and jelly.

I am going to ask.

No. After screening for run of the mill coronavirus, if positive, the test is run for Covid-19. It’s a PCR based test.

Thanks. I found this while doing some reading this morning. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... ories.html

I am still baffled why the CDC number differs so much (lower). Maybe it is because the test kits have not reached all the parts of US...and if that is the case, then how do those rural areas certify it is in fact CV19.

They send their test materials, swabs and serum to a testing center via their State Department of Health OR directly to the CDC. The DoH AND the CDC have the ability to contract outside labs (certified) to actually perform the test. The CDC can run the test themselves as can all the various DoH if they choose.

At present, no healthcare providers are certified to run the tests themselves. That will change at some point in the future.

[youthathletics]

Yea, like peanut butter and jelly.

I am going to ask.

No. After screening for run of the mill coronavirus, if positive, the test is run for Covid-19. It’s a PCR based test.

Thanks. I found this while doing some reading this morning. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... ories.html

I am still baffled why the CDC number differs so much (lower). Maybe it is because the test kits have not reached all the parts of US...and if that is the case, then how do those rural areas certify it is in fact CV19.

They send their test materials, swabs and serum to a testing center via their State Department of Health OR directly to the CDC. The DoH AND the CDC have the ability to contract outside labs (certified) to actually perform the test. The CDC can run the test themselves as can all the various DoH if they choose.

At present, no healthcare providers are certified to run the tests themselves. That will change at some point in the future.

Understood...which is why I have been questioning the integrity of a positive CV19 test that was NOT verified by CDC.