njbill wrote: ↑Sat Sep 24, 2022 9:40 pm
Well, the pollsters and prognosticators haven’t been doing a very good job of late.
I’m not as optimistic as Moore. I think the Dems pick up the Senate seat in Pennsylvania. Beyond that, I’m not sure. They have tough holds in Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada. Two for three might be a realistic. All three would be gravy.
Dems have tough pick ups in North Carolina, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Florida. Frankly, I would take one for four.
Just don’t see the Dems holding the House. Putting aside all of the mumbo-jumbo about the party in power usually losing in the midterms, Biden‘s approval ratings, the economy, blah blah blah, a factor that doesn’t get enough attention, in my mind, is the shift in seats from state to state following the 2020 consensus (e.g., CA losing seats and TX and Fla picking up). Almost all of those changes favor the Republicans. And then there are the redistricting games the Republicans play. The Dems do too, but they control a lot fewer states.
I live in a swing district which historically is moderately Republican. A Dem (Andy Kim) won in 2018 and 2020 in razor tight races. His district has been redistricted to make it safer for him, but it was at the cost of making another district in New Jersey safer for Republicans.
I think Warnock will hold on here despite some ludicrous ads that are getting more mentally deficient, dishonest and gross by the week.
Beauty to sliver is he put quantitative analysis to aggregating all the polls, effectively making a market equilibrium out of them. He’s pretty good at it. Will be harder as the “bid/ask” (range of extreme positions and related polling) diverges further to find the middle and it’s not exactly a Gaussian distribution.
Re: 2022 Midterms
Posted: Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:17 am
by Farfromgeneva
njbill wrote: ↑Sat Sep 24, 2022 9:43 pm
Farfrom, who do you think wins the Georgia senate race?
I think warnock wins. It’s been all attack rarely even see promotional ads from Rep side all attack but it leaves Walker on his own. He may be a former NFL player but a lot know nothing about him and he keeps lying so much and getting caught he is starting to look like a joke to the moderate republicans around Atlanta which you need to win.
Re: 2022 Midterms
Posted: Sun Sep 25, 2022 10:45 am
by njbill
Thanks.
Walker played for the Eagles for a few years so we got to “know” him a bit. Not a bad guy, but a real strange guy as I recall.
Walker played for the Eagles for a few years so we got to “know” him a bit. Not a bad guy, but a real strange guy as I recall.
I don’t think of Walker as nefarious or objectively bad but he is weird, lies a ton on silly stuff, and probably worst is that he’s fine being buddies with others who aren’t so good people with money and networks to benefit himself even though if advances really bad causes. Not a thinker and I don’t know how much of his role in everything else he plays but hard not to indict him for the company he keeps which are people who sort of own him.
Re: 2022 Midterms
Posted: Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:49 pm
by DMac
If this guy gets one vote it's a vote against honor and integrity. Typical boasting and blustering of a politician when few or no words are true. Typical lying sack of schidt of a veteran who insinuates bravery in combat (too classified to reveal details, kind of shame, might have received the Bronze Star with V if someone could tell about it) and harsh conditions while loading and unloading aircraft in a secure area. I'd bet this guy had a few days of small arms training, went to the firing range a few times.
Wasn't issued a weapon when in country, slim chance he'd need one. Might be wrong but I wouldn't bet against me. Too many veterans like this.
Four years and gets out an E2 and he's going to run on my military experience and commitment to country.
Some of the people some of the time but not....and all that.
This guy ranks real high on my Douce Bag Of The Year list. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... f56bdb0ed0
Re: 2022 Midterms
Posted: Wed Sep 28, 2022 9:51 pm
by Typical Lax Dad
DMac wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:49 pm
If this guy gets one vote it's a vote against honor and integrity. Typical boasting and blustering of a politician when few or no words are true. Typical lying sack of schidt of a veteran who insinuates bravery in combat (too classified to reveal details, kind of shame, might have received the Bronze Star with V if someone could tell about it) and harsh conditions while loading and unloading aircraft in a secure area. I'd bet this guy had a few days of small arms training, went to the firing range a few times.
Wasn't issued a weapon when in country, slim chance he'd need one. Might be wrong but I wouldn't bet against me. Too many veterans like this.
Four years and gets out an E2 and he's going to run on my military experience and commitment to country.
Some of the people some of the time but not....and all that.
This guy ranks real high on my Douce Bag Of The Year list. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... f56bdb0ed0
Re: 2022 Midterms
Posted: Wed Sep 28, 2022 9:54 pm
by Typical Lax Dad
Re: 2022 Midterms
Posted: Thu Sep 29, 2022 8:29 am
by Kismet
MAGA moron
If the shoe fits wear it!
How to take a potential pickup seat and flush it down the drain. Orange Cheato formally and vehemently endorsed this fruitcake....well whaddya know - an idiot clone.
Speaking of idiot clones, also note the Confederate candidate for PA governor now says he will prosecute both women and doctors for MURDER if he's elected. Brilliant.
Re: 2022 Midterms
Posted: Thu Sep 29, 2022 8:48 am
by Farfromgeneva
DMac wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:49 pm
If this guy gets one vote it's a vote against honor and integrity. Typical boasting and blustering of a politician when few or no words are true. Typical lying sack of schidt of a veteran who insinuates bravery in combat (too classified to reveal details, kind of shame, might have received the Bronze Star with V if someone could tell about it) and harsh conditions while loading and unloading aircraft in a secure area. I'd bet this guy had a few days of small arms training, went to the firing range a few times.
Wasn't issued a weapon when in country, slim chance he'd need one. Might be wrong but I wouldn't bet against me. Too many veterans like this.
Four years and gets out an E2 and he's going to run on my military experience and commitment to country.
Some of the people some of the time but not....and all that.
This guy ranks real high on my Douce Bag Of The Year list. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... f56bdb0ed0
All the lying a bunch of these cats have done and this is the final straw? Is this even in the top 1,000 most offensive lies are by this cohort where you don’t expect them to ever tell the truth at all.
DMac wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:49 pm
If this guy gets one vote it's a vote against honor and integrity. Typical boasting and blustering of a politician when few or no words are true. Typical lying sack of schidt of a veteran who insinuates bravery in combat (too classified to reveal details, kind of shame, might have received the Bronze Star with V if someone could tell about it) and harsh conditions while loading and unloading aircraft in a secure area. I'd bet this guy had a few days of small arms training, went to the firing range a few times.
Wasn't issued a weapon when in country, slim chance he'd need one. Might be wrong but I wouldn't bet against me. Too many veterans like this.
Four years and gets out an E2 and he's going to run on my military experience and commitment to country.
Some of the people some of the time but not....and all that.
This guy ranks real high on my Douce Bag Of The Year list. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... f56bdb0ed0
Wondered where Alex Morgan went when she was missing from The Circus. Even with what appears to be a bit of a fupa I still appreciate the leather skirt she chose to wear there.
DMac wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:49 pm
If this guy gets one vote it's a vote against honor and integrity. Typical boasting and blustering of a politician when few or no words are true. Typical lying sack of schidt of a veteran who insinuates bravery in combat (too classified to reveal details, kind of shame, might have received the Bronze Star with V if someone could tell about it) and harsh conditions while loading and unloading aircraft in a secure area. I'd bet this guy had a few days of small arms training, went to the firing range a few times.
Wasn't issued a weapon when in country, slim chance he'd need one. Might be wrong but I wouldn't bet against me. Too many veterans like this.
Four years and gets out an E2 and he's going to run on my military experience and commitment to country.
Some of the people some of the time but not....and all that.
This guy ranks real high on my Douce Bag Of The Year list. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... f56bdb0ed0
Wondered where Alex Morgan went when she was missing from The Circus. Even with what appears to be a bit of a fupa I still appreciate the leather skirt she chose to wear there.
DMac wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:49 pm
If this guy gets one vote it's a vote against honor and integrity. Typical boasting and blustering of a politician when few or no words are true. Typical lying sack of schidt of a veteran who insinuates bravery in combat (too classified to reveal details, kind of shame, might have received the Bronze Star with V if someone could tell about it) and harsh conditions while loading and unloading aircraft in a secure area. I'd bet this guy had a few days of small arms training, went to the firing range a few times.
Wasn't issued a weapon when in country, slim chance he'd need one. Might be wrong but I wouldn't bet against me. Too many veterans like this.
Four years and gets out an E2 and he's going to run on my military experience and commitment to country.
Some of the people some of the time but not....and all that.
This guy ranks real high on my Douce Bag Of The Year list. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... f56bdb0ed0
Wondered where Alex Morgan went when she was missing from The Circus. Even with what appears to be a bit of a fupa I still appreciate the leather skirt she chose to wear there.
The political ads in Ohio are UNBELIEVABLE
The ones against Warnock are getting more stupid by the minute too.
DMac wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:49 pm
If this guy gets one vote it's a vote against honor and integrity. Typical boasting and blustering of a politician when few or no words are true. Typical lying sack of schidt of a veteran who insinuates bravery in combat (too classified to reveal details, kind of shame, might have received the Bronze Star with V if someone could tell about it) and harsh conditions while loading and unloading aircraft in a secure area. I'd bet this guy had a few days of small arms training, went to the firing range a few times.
Wasn't issued a weapon when in country, slim chance he'd need one. Might be wrong but I wouldn't bet against me. Too many veterans like this.
Four years and gets out an E2 and he's going to run on my military experience and commitment to country.
Some of the people some of the time but not....and all that.
This guy ranks real high on my Douce Bag Of The Year list. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... f56bdb0ed0
Wondered where Alex Morgan went when she was missing from The Circus. Even with what appears to be a bit of a fupa I still appreciate the leather skirt she chose to wear there.
The political ads in Ohio are UNBELIEVABLE
UNBELIEVABLE is right! This lying sack of schidt, scumbag of a human being, and embarrassment to veterans who served and seek zero recognition, praise, or reward for it is the poster child for why background checks are needed for gun purchasers and why an aszwhole like this shouldn't be allowed to have one, let alone prance around with one like he knows what he's doing with it and used one just like it in combat (while loading planes with mail full of Dear John letters from HS sweethearts...well, ex sweethearts).
DMac wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:49 pm
If this guy gets one vote it's a vote against honor and integrity. Typical boasting and blustering of a politician when few or no words are true. Typical lying sack of schidt of a veteran who insinuates bravery in combat (too classified to reveal details, kind of shame, might have received the Bronze Star with V if someone could tell about it) and harsh conditions while loading and unloading aircraft in a secure area. I'd bet this guy had a few days of small arms training, went to the firing range a few times.
Wasn't issued a weapon when in country, slim chance he'd need one. Might be wrong but I wouldn't bet against me. Too many veterans like this.
Four years and gets out an E2 and he's going to run on my military experience and commitment to country.
Some of the people some of the time but not....and all that.
This guy ranks real high on my Douce Bag Of The Year list. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... f56bdb0ed0
All the lying a bunch of these cats have done and this is the final straw? Is this even in the top 1,000 most offensive lies are by this cohort where you don’t expect them to ever tell the truth at all.
DMac wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:49 pm
If this guy gets one vote it's a vote against honor and integrity. Typical boasting and blustering of a politician when few or no words are true. Typical lying sack of schidt of a veteran who insinuates bravery in combat (too classified to reveal details, kind of shame, might have received the Bronze Star with V if someone could tell about it) and harsh conditions while loading and unloading aircraft in a secure area. I'd bet this guy had a few days of small arms training, went to the firing range a few times.
Wasn't issued a weapon when in country, slim chance he'd need one. Might be wrong but I wouldn't bet against me. Too many veterans like this.
Four years and gets out an E2 and he's going to run on my military experience and commitment to country.
Some of the people some of the time but not....and all that.
This guy ranks real high on my Douce Bag Of The Year list. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... f56bdb0ed0
All the lying a bunch of these cats have done and this is the final straw? Is this even in the top 1,000 most offensive lies are by this cohort where you don’t expect them to ever tell the truth at all.
It absolutely makes my top 1,000.
Reminds me of the old adage about how low one can go
"You can't commit suicide jumping out of a basement window"
This fellow is what we'd call a THERMONUCLEAR A-HOLE.
Re: 2022 Midterms
Posted: Thu Sep 29, 2022 9:47 am
by ardilla secreta
Apparently there are no background checks of candidates or they just don’t care. That Ohio guy will still get plenty of votes just for being a creepy looking, tough-talking, overweight guy with firearms.
As for Walker, he hasn’t dealt with reality since being coddled as a high school football star. US senate needs another world class liar. Like being brazen enough to claim graduating in top 1% at UGA when he left after his junior year. Toss in some marital abuse and mental health issues and he’s the right man for his party.
DMac wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:49 pm
If this guy gets one vote it's a vote against honor and integrity. Typical boasting and blustering of a politician when few or no words are true. Typical lying sack of schidt of a veteran who insinuates bravery in combat (too classified to reveal details, kind of shame, might have received the Bronze Star with V if someone could tell about it) and harsh conditions while loading and unloading aircraft in a secure area. I'd bet this guy had a few days of small arms training, went to the firing range a few times.
Wasn't issued a weapon when in country, slim chance he'd need one. Might be wrong but I wouldn't bet against me. Too many veterans like this.
Four years and gets out an E2 and he's going to run on my military experience and commitment to country.
Some of the people some of the time but not....and all that.
This guy ranks real high on my Douce Bag Of The Year list. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... f56bdb0ed0
All the lying a bunch of these cats have done and this is the final straw? Is this even in the top 1,000 most offensive lies are by this cohort where you don’t expect them to ever tell the truth at all.
It absolutely makes my top 1,000.
Fair enough. Though he’s hardly the first one to lie there must be a 100 candidates across the mag spectrum who’ve lied about their service.
Re: 2022 Midterms
Posted: Thu Sep 29, 2022 9:54 am
by Farfromgeneva
ardilla secreta wrote: ↑Thu Sep 29, 2022 9:47 am
Apparently there are no background checks of candidates or they just don’t care. That Ohio guy will still get plenty of votes just for being a creepy looking, tough-talking, overweight guy with firearms.
As for Walker, he hasn’t dealt with reality since being coddled as a high school football star. US senate needs another world class liar. Like being brazen enough to claim graduating in top 1% at UGA when he left after his junior year. Toss in some marital abuse and mental health issues and he’s the right man for his party.
Seriously as a new youth sports coach*, I wouldn’t let that dude be my assistant. I’d be way too worried about his zealousness with the cup checks.
Walker wins and he and Tuberville can create a caucus that would put Jim Bunning, Jack Kemp and even Heath Shuler to shame! Or I mean they would feel shame as significant athletes who went to congress.
*Don’t ask my record or if I waited too long to call a timeout last Sunday when the bigger more experienced opponents were shelling my son in goal for the first 8 min of the game. He volunteered at goal because we don’t have one yet end we ended up with two injury timeouts one for a shot that got under his shoulder pad where he’s got a massive knot.
Yeah, Brian Kemp is far from the worst of the MAGA crowd, not DeSantis but using the "movement" for his benefit and had all these ads with his guns in them and yet if you knwo the guy you'd know that in the heat of a situation he'd be more likely to shoot his own junk off, even with a shotgun and i don't even knwo the mechanics of that unless he's packing a "Ray Jay".
