All things Chinese CoronaVirus

[Bart]

Amd still no clue if the virus evolves into different strains like the flu

The Chinese identified and published last week that there are two "strains". So called "L" and "S".

Wasn't the original COVID19 a mutation ?

I think the original thought was that it was a strain that jumped from Bats to humans. I do not know it that thought has changed or not.

[ggait]

The best plan may actually be, isolate those most likely to not survive or have really bad cases (for say a month), and give it to everyone else just as moms did in an earlier era and let them proceed about their daily lives.

100% this is going to be what happens. The pros estimate that 40-70% of the world population is eventually going to be infected.

The game for now is really just about slowing things down enough so you can keep the health care system (and most importantly the health care workers in the system) from melting down.

This thing subsides in only three ways. Nearest term, maybe we get lucky and there's a seasonal decline as weather gets warmer. Medium term, people get infected, recover, and hopefully develop some level of immunity (TBD). Longer term, a vaccine becomes available.

Realistically, a vaccine at best will be for the 21-22 cold/flu season, not the 20-21. But presumably, everyone will be better prepared to handle this better for the 20-21 season. This currently wouldn't be so crazy disruptive if we had some basic public health measures in place and a big stockpile of test kits, sanitizer, masks and gloves.

[jhu72]

Stepping back from this mess for a minute, you have to wonder if healthcare professionals aren't looking at this the wrong way. Forget for a moment predictions of hospital / resource over crowding, etc.. Ask the question - what is the long term health effect of having had this particular strain of coronavirus if you survive? To date, there is no evidence it is any more than the flu or the common cold. Admittedly short period of experience with the disease, but still no evidence of anything serious. What is the reinfection rate? Is it even possible? There has been one report out of China indicating it is possible, but this is not confirmed.

In earlier times (when I was very young) with more serious diseases (in long term effects as best we can tell) the drill was to build herd immunity. Simply put, intentionally infect those who were not immune so as to mitigate future outbreaks. Measles, Mumps, Chicken Pox, etc. When one child came down with the infection, mom would expose the rest of the kids (above a certain age). This is no longer necessary or done because of vaccines.

Currently the professional thinking is socially distancing the herd. The effect of this is you build no herd immunity and society is susceptible to this strain reoccurring and putting society through this again. The best plan may actually be, isolate those most likely to not survive or have really bad cases (for say a month), and give it to everyone else just as moms did in an earlier era and let them proceed about their daily lives. Of course there are a bunch of unknows with this plan, risks. But there are known risks, health and economic with the kinds of plans the healthcare professionals are currently considering. Going down the path of the professionals we become absolutely dependent on the development of a vaccine. Mom's solution not so much.

Just a thought.

Thanks for posting that thought.
I've had that same thought for a couple days, but figured it would be politicized if I posted it.

"cocoon" the vulnerable, & let the <60 healthy herd roam free.

It is an interesting and potentially very dangerous thought. Just not enough information about the virus to make an intelligent decision. That situation might be different a month from now, depending on what researchers are doing. I could imagine a scenario where we try distancing for a while, and then when things become clear, change course. Although I suspect there would be significant push back among those making the decisions today.

[jhu72]

Amd still no clue if the virus evolves into different strains like the flu

The Chinese identified and published last week that there are two "strains". So called "L" and "S".

Wasn't the original COVID19 a mutation ?

I think the original thought was that it was a strain that jumped from Bats to humans. I do not know it that thought has changed or not.

The question is, what jumped? The ancient strain or the new, or both. The Chinese claim they are seeing 30% ancient and 70% new.

[CU88]

Latest #COVID19 figures from #Italy:

Yesterday's figures: 9,172 cases, 463 dead.

Today's figures: 10,149 cases, 631 dead.


The spike in the death rate is sobering.

[jhu72]

Unfortunately the CDC isn’t tracking all infections in the US as private labs aren't required to report to them. I swear, they’re screwing this up on purpose.

I have assumed the states are reporting the independent labs, since they are the ones contracting those labs. Private healthcare organizations have to report anything they commission to the state. It would clearly be better if the CDC was reporting everything, including positives, negatives and inconclusives. Acting as a clearing house.

Trump is on the tube and actually behaving reasonably (truthfully). Until he gets to an unnecessary review of history and then he spins and lies.

[HooDat]

Way more terrifying (again speaking just for myself) would be a mid-40s family breadwinner making $50k a year to be laid off due to the severe economic and social disruption this bug is going to cause. A family living paycheck-to-paycheck might never recover from that. The number of those type situations is going to be far more numerous than the number of serious health issues.

Agree 1,000%. I can't wrap my head around what's coming----so many Americans are paycheck to paycheck. What happens when there's no work for a couple of months----or more---- because of this thing?

spot on.

there is a lot to chew on in JHU's post, and I think ggait has it right when he says/implies that we are already executing that plan. The only question is whether it is intentional or unintentional? I have to think that even if it is intentional, given the hype right now, you could not admit it.

The best plan may actually be, isolate those most likely to not survive or have really bad cases (for say a month), and give it to everyone else just as moms did in an earlier era and let them proceed about their daily lives.

100% this is going to be what happens. The pros estimate that 40-70% of the world population is eventually going to be infected.

The game for now is really just about slowing things down enough so you can keep the health care system (and most importantly the health care workers in the system) from melting down.

This thing subsides in only three ways. Nearest term, maybe we get lucky and there's a seasonal decline as weather gets warmer. Medium term, people get infected, recover, and hopefully develop some level of immunity (TBD). Longer term, a vaccine becomes available.

Realistically, a vaccine at best will be for the 21-22 cold/flu season, not the 20-21. But presumably, everyone will be better prepared to handle this better for the 20-21 season. This currently wouldn't be so crazy disruptive if we had some basic public health measures in place and a big stockpile of test kits, sanitizer, masks and gloves.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Stepping back from this mess for a minute, you have to wonder if healthcare professionals aren't looking at this the wrong way. Forget for a moment predictions of hospital / resource over crowding, etc.. Ask the question - what is the long term health effect of having had this particular strain of coronavirus if you survive? To date, there is no evidence it is any more than the flu or the common cold. Admittedly short period of experience with the disease, but still no evidence of anything serious. What is the reinfection rate? Is it even possible? There has been one report out of China indicating it is possible, but this is not confirmed.

In earlier times (when I was very young) with more serious diseases (in long term effects as best we can tell) the drill was to build herd immunity. Simply put, intentionally infect those who were not immune so as to mitigate future outbreaks. Measles, Mumps, Chicken Pox, etc. When one child came down with the infection, mom would expose the rest of the kids (above a certain age). This is no longer necessary or done because of vaccines.

Currently the professional thinking is socially distancing the herd. The effect of this is you build no herd immunity and society is susceptible to this strain reoccurring and putting society through this again. The best plan may actually be, isolate those most likely to not survive or have really bad cases (for say a month), and give it to everyone else just as moms did in an earlier era and let them proceed about their daily lives. Of course there are a bunch of unknows with this plan, risks. But there are known risks, health and economic with the kinds of plans the healthcare professionals are currently considering. Going down the path of the professionals we become absolutely dependent on the development of a vaccine. Mom's solution not so much.

Just a thought.

Thanks for posting that thought.
I've had that same thought for a couple days, but figured it would be politicized if I posted it.

"cocoon" the vulnerable, & let the <60 healthy herd roam free.

I had the exact same thought. It makes too much common sense to be practical.

[jhu72]

Way more terrifying (again speaking just for myself) would be a mid-40s family breadwinner making $50k a year to be laid off due to the severe economic and social disruption this bug is going to cause. A family living paycheck-to-paycheck might never recover from that. The number of those type situations is going to be far more numerous than the number of serious health issues.

Agree 1,000%. I can't wrap my head around what's coming----so many Americans are paycheck to paycheck. What happens when there's no work for a couple of months----or more---- because of this thing?

spot on.

there is a lot to chew on in JHU's post, and I think ggait has it right when he says/implies that we are already executing that plan. The only question is whether it is intentional or unintentional? I have to think that even if it is intentional, given the hype right now, you could not admit it.

The best plan may actually be, isolate those most likely to not survive or have really bad cases (for say a month), and give it to everyone else just as moms did in an earlier era and let them proceed about their daily lives.

100% this is going to be what happens. The pros estimate that 40-70% of the world population is eventually going to be infected.

The game for now is really just about slowing things down enough so you can keep the health care system (and most importantly the health care workers in the system) from melting down.

This thing subsides in only three ways. Nearest term, maybe we get lucky and there's a seasonal decline as weather gets warmer. Medium term, people get infected, recover, and hopefully develop some level of immunity (TBD). Longer term, a vaccine becomes available.

Realistically, a vaccine at best will be for the 21-22 cold/flu season, not the 20-21. But presumably, everyone will be better prepared to handle this better for the 20-21 season. This currently wouldn't be so crazy disruptive if we had some basic public health measures in place and a big stockpile of test kits, sanitizer, masks and gloves.

… I don't think it is intentional. Just humans doing what humans do.

[youthathletics]

California Governor Newsom and Trump might have to get a room...high praise to Trump: https://www.instagram.com/p/B9jwZa0nAxh/ quite a different story, yet again.

[Typical Lax Dad]

California Governor Newsom and Trump might have to get a room...high praise to Trump: https://www.instagram.com/p/B9jwZa0nAxh/ quite a different story, yet again.

How do you think the Trump administration has handled Cov-19?

[jhu72]

California Governor Newsom and Trump might have to get a room...high praise to Trump: https://www.instagram.com/p/B9jwZa0nAxh/ quite a different story, yet again.

Of course he didn't call Newsom a snake. Probably CA didn't have enough dead to qualify.

[ggait]

… I don't think it is intentional. Just humans doing what humans do.

The plan, basically, is telling hundreds of millions of people don't touch your face (which the average person does hundreds of times a day), wash your hands, and stay away from other people. That's hardly different than having no plan at all.

Unless/until you have mass quantities of vaccine, tests, masks and gloves, this thing is going to spread widely unless/until it abates on its own. Maybe as the weather gets warmer; otherwise because people get exposed and acquire some immunity.

[youthathletics]

California Governor Newsom and Trump might have to get a room...high praise to Trump: https://www.instagram.com/p/B9jwZa0nAxh/ quite a different story, yet again.

How do you think the Trump administration has handled Cov-19?

Just fine....he has tried to keep America calm, re-assure that vaccines are in trial (which take a long time to begin with) and to go along with your life. BUT, we can see how hysteria takes a foothold on society.

Are you at work today, did anyone in your family touch a door knob, flush a public toilet, push a button after a credit card swipe or elevator button, eat food cooked for them by others, grab loose change from a purchase..and if you do get sick...who will you blame. Some things you simply can not control.

[old salt]

Was surprised to see JHU's Dr. Amesh Adalja on FNC last night.
Even more surprised at what he said --
-- Italy's lock down is a mistake.
-- OK to fly if you're not in a high risk group.

[Typical Lax Dad]

California Governor Newsom and Trump might have to get a room...high praise to Trump: https://www.instagram.com/p/B9jwZa0nAxh/ quite a different story, yet again.

How do you think the Trump administration has handled Cov-19?

Just fine....he has tried to keep America calm, re-assure that vaccines are in trial (which take a long time to begin with) and to go along with your life. BUT, we can see how hysteria takes a foothold on society.

Are you at work today, did anyone in your family touch a door knob, flush a public toilet, push a button after a credit card swipe or elevator button, eat food cooked for them by others, grab loose change from a purchase..and if you do get sick...who will you blame. Some things you simply can not control.

Un huh.... I live with an "expert"

[Trinity]

NY National Guard called up to assist the quarantine of New Rochelle.

[Typical Lax Dad]

NY National Guard called up to assist the quarantine of New Rochelle.

Sleepy Cuomo trying to make Trump look bad.

[Trinity]

Cuomo was also duly elected...without Russian help. Meanwhile former DHS boss Tom Bossert says we’re ten days away from our hospitals getting overrun.

[kramerica.inc]

Out of curiosity, did Cuomo's opponent not campaign in battleground areas of NY?