All Things Russia & Ukraine

[DocBarrister]

This is really dangerous stuff. We are very close to being involved in a shooting war with Russia & nobody is taking it seriously.
The Russians know where & how the Ukrainians are getting such precise targeting info. This is a very explicit warning. Not just bluster.
I hope we have combat air patrol fighters escorting our surveillance aircraft & we are able to jam Russia's S-400's in Crimea.

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wi ... s-89225498

Russia warns US off sending long-range weapons to Ukraine
A senior Russian diplomat has sternly warned Washington against supplying long-range weapons to Ukraine

by VLADIMIR ISACHENKOV, Associated Press, September 2, 2022

MOSCOW -- A senior Russian diplomat sternly warned Washington Friday against supplying long-range weapons to Ukraine, noting that the U.S. is balancing on the edge of direct involvement in the conflict.

Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov also pointed to the country's military doctrine that envisages the use of nuclear weapons in case of a threat to the existence of the Russian state.

“We have repeatedly warned the U.S. about the consequences that may follow if the U.S. continues to flood Ukraine with weapons," Ryabkov said. “It effectively puts itself in a state close to what can be described as a party to the conflict.”

Speaking on state television, Ryabkov warned that ”a very narrow margin that separates the U.S. from becoming a party to the conflict mustn't create an illusion for rabid anti-Russian forces that everything will remain as it is if they cross it.”

He emphasized that Russia will push its offensive in Ukraine until it reaches its aims.

“Russia is capable of fully defending its interests, and the goals of the special military operation will be fully achieved,” Ryabkov said.

He pointed out that Russia’s military doctrine stipulates that it could use nuclear weapons in case of aggression against Russia and its allies involving mass destruction weapons, or an aggression involving conventional weapons that threatens the very existence of the Russian state.

Supplies of the U.S. HIMARS multiple rocket launchers strengthened the strike capability of the Ukrainian army, which has used them to hit key infrastructure facilities and other targets. The truck-mounted systems fire GPS-guided missiles capable of reaching targets up to 80 kilometers (50 miles) away.

U.S. authorities so far have refrained from providing Ukraine with longer range missiles for HIMARS launchers that can reach targets up to 300 kilometers (186 miles) and could potentially allow the Ukrainian military to hit areas deep inside Russia.

“We are warning the U.S. against making provocative steps, such as deliveries of longer-range and more devastating weapons,” Ryabkov said. “It's a road to nowhere fraught with grave consequences, the responsibility for which will lie entirely with Washington.”

Yes, it is indeed very dangerous. And yes, we should certainly hope that our military takes such danger seriously and has taken what steps it can to minimize and mitigate any Russian attempts to strike US forces.

But let's be very clear, this is on Russia not the US, Putin in specific, for having invaded a neighboring country, with long range, indiscriminate missile strikes against civilian populations. Russia is the aggressor, full stop.

They can warn and spin all they want (and of course they will), but the reality is that we should provide the longer range, precision capabilities to the Ukrainians so that they can and will defeat the aggressor.

That said, we need to be confident that the Ukrainians will use the weaponry we provide for precision strikes only, and against military assets only, and not 'deep inside Russia'. The objective needs to remain the repulsion of the aggressor.

Are the Ukrainians building that confidence with the US?

Ukraine has been using U.S. and NATO intelligence data (including, I assume, precise targeting data) very judiciously. Ukraine has been launching precision strikes against Russian command centers, ammunition depots, and armored vehicles with great efficiency.

Indeed, I think Ukraine’s ability to rapidly adapt and learn to use precision artillery is going to be studied by generations of military officers in the U.S. and elsewhere.

It truly is astounding what Ukraine has achieved with the Howitzers and HIMARS systems that we have provided.

I agree … I think we should give Ukraine the longer-range 189-mile missiles for the HIMARS systems. They will need those to take back territory occupied by Russia.

DocBarrister

[MDlaxfan76]

I'd say that we hope that their usage has be "judiciously" targeted, and they have good confirmation of such.

If so, trust has been built.

However, we should remain vigilant in oversight.

[old salt]

FROM The Washington Post
The Daily 202
By Olivier Knox with research by Caroline Anders

It’s been a big week for the largest armed conflict in Europe since World War II, and for The Washington Post’s coverage of Russia’s expanded invasion of Ukraine. Let’s look at some of the critical developments...

...the painful stories of wounded Ukrainian troops describing their ordeal fighting to retake the strategic southern city of Kherson from Russian forces.
Beyond the tragic human toll, they told John of:

Russian drones tracking Ukrainian forces from so high up in the sky that their targets never heard the unmanned vehicles’ buzz.
Russian tanks emerging from newly built cement shelters, firing on Ukrainian targets, then slipping back into cover, protected from mortars and rockets.
Russian counter-battery radars that let Moscow’s forces target Ukrainian artillery.
Russian hackers taking over Ukrainian drones.
John’s piece serves as something of a corrective to the social-media narrative of the war, in which videos show plucky Ukrainian forces getting the better of heavier but hapless Russians. It’s a reminder that the war looks far from over.

[DocBarrister]

Local Russian lawmakers in both St. Petersburg and Moscow issued calls this week for Russian President Vladimir Putin to be removed from power over the war in Ukraine — a potentially risky move in a country where dissent can lead to imprisonment or worse.

Municipal deputies from the Smolninsky District Council in St. Petersburg, the Russian president's hometown, issued a statement calling on Russia's parliament to remove Putin from power and charge him with high treason for launching the war in Ukraine, per the Washington Post.

… In the aftermath, the lawmakers were told by police that they are facing legal charges "due to actions aimed at discrediting the current Russian government," the Post reported.

Lawmakers from a municipal council in Moscow's Lomonosovsky district made a similar move, also calling on Putin to resign.

… Critics of Putin have often ended up in prison or have died in violent or mysterious ways.

https://www.businessinsider.com/russian ... 2022-9?amp

Pedestrians in Moscow and St. Petersburg may want to look up on occasion while they are walking … never know when a falling “object” will come screaming down.

DocBarrister

[DocBarrister]

KYIV/HRAKOVE, Ukraine, Sept 10 (Reuters) - Ukrainian officials shared photos on Saturday showing troops raising the nation's flag over the main railway city that has supplied Russian forces in northeastern Ukraine, as a collapse in Russia's frontline threatened to turn into a rout.

A Reuters journalist inside a vast area recaptured in recent days by the advancing Ukrainian forces saw Ukrainian police patrolling towns and boxes of ammunition lying in heaps at positions abandoned by fleeing Russian soldiers.

… With Ukrainians now having reached the city of Kupiansk, where rail lines linking Russia to eastern Ukraine converge, the advance had penetrated all the way to Moscow's main logistics route, potentially trapping thousands of Russian troops.

… The capture of at least part of Kupiansk, if confirmed, potentially leaves thousands of Russian soldiers trapped at the frontline and cut off from supplies.

… The head of the Russian-installed administration in the province's occupied areas, Vitaliy Ganchev, has described the advance as a Ukrainian victory and called for civilians to flee.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/uk ... 022-09-10/

DocBarrister

[Kismet]

FROM The Washington Post
The Daily 202
By Olivier Knox with research by Caroline Anders

It’s been a big week for the largest armed conflict in Europe since World War II, and for The Washington Post’s coverage of Russia’s expanded invasion of Ukraine. Let’s look at some of the critical developments...

...the painful stories of wounded Ukrainian troops describing their ordeal fighting to retake the strategic southern city of Kherson from Russian forces.
Beyond the tragic human toll, they told John of:

Russian drones tracking Ukrainian forces from so high up in the sky that their targets never heard the unmanned vehicles’ buzz.
Russian tanks emerging from newly built cement shelters, firing on Ukrainian targets, then slipping back into cover, protected from mortars and rockets.
Russian counter-battery radars that let Moscow’s forces target Ukrainian artillery.
Russian hackers taking over Ukrainian drones.
John’s piece serves as something of a corrective to the social-media narrative of the war, in which videos show plucky Ukrainian forces getting the better of heavier but hapless Russians. It’s a reminder that the war looks far from over.

Saturday AM - Ukrainian army forces reported to have taken Izium, a large Russian -occupied military supply hub as well as Lyman and possibly Svyatohirsk in a counter-offensive in the northeast near Kharkiv. As part of this action, Russian Lieutenant General Andrei Sychevoi, in command of Russian “West” Group was captured and is now a POW. He is the most senior Russian officer captured since WW II.


Update by British Ministry of Defense Saturday AM
https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/15 ... 27/photo/1

Of course, the war is not over in the slightest but things are looking up in some places currently.

[DocBarrister]

FROM The Washington Post
The Daily 202
By Olivier Knox with research by Caroline Anders

It’s been a big week for the largest armed conflict in Europe since World War II, and for The Washington Post’s coverage of Russia’s expanded invasion of Ukraine. Let’s look at some of the critical developments...

...the painful stories of wounded Ukrainian troops describing their ordeal fighting to retake the strategic southern city of Kherson from Russian forces.
Beyond the tragic human toll, they told John of:

Russian drones tracking Ukrainian forces from so high up in the sky that their targets never heard the unmanned vehicles’ buzz.
Russian tanks emerging from newly built cement shelters, firing on Ukrainian targets, then slipping back into cover, protected from mortars and rockets.
Russian counter-battery radars that let Moscow’s forces target Ukrainian artillery.
Russian hackers taking over Ukrainian drones.
John’s piece serves as something of a corrective to the social-media narrative of the war, in which videos show plucky Ukrainian forces getting the better of heavier but hapless Russians. It’s a reminder that the war looks far from over.

Saturday AM - Ukrainian army forces reported to have taken Izium, a large Russian -occupied military supply hub as well as Lyman and possibly Svyatohirsk in a counter-offensive in the northeast near Kharkiv. As part of this action, Russian Lieutenant General Andrei Sychevoi, in command of Russian “West” Group was captured and is now a POW. He is the most senior Russian officer captured since WW II.


Update by British Ministry of Defense Saturday AM
https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/15 ... 27/photo/1

Of course, the war is not over in the slightest but things are looking up in some places currently.

KYIV/HRAKOVE, Ukraine, Sept 10 (Reuters) - Moscow abandoned its main bastion in northeastern Ukraine on Saturday, in a sudden collapse on one of the war's principal front lines after surging Ukrainian forces threatened to encircle the area in a shock advance.

The swift fall of Izium in Kharkiv province was Moscow's worst defeat since its troops were forced back from the capital Kyiv in March, and could prove a decisive turning point in the six-month war, with thousands of Russian soldiers abandoning ammunition stockpiles and equipment as they flee.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/uk ... 022-09-10/

Military analyst Rob Lee tweeted "Russian Telegram channels are already [pointing] the finger at Lieutenant General Sychevoi who is the 'West' group commander responsible for this area."

On the uniform of the man believed to be Sychevoi are the two stars worn by Russian lieutenant generals. Two stars are also on display on the shoulders of his ceremonial uniform he is wearing in images shared of him on social media.

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine ... 1356?amp=1

DocBarrister

[DocBarrister]

Ukraine’s stunning counteroffensive in Kharkiv is the type of military action that will be written about and analyzed for decades, maybe centuries.

With rapid speed, the defenders have cut through Russian-occupied positions over the past four days, recapturing as many as 2,500 square kilometers of terrain, according to the Washington-based think tank the Institute for the Study of War, an area roughly equivalent to the combined area of the cities of New York and Los Angeles. Ukraine has also claimed to have killed upward of 1,000 Russian soldiers in as many days, although that figure cannot be independently verified.

… Both acknowledge that the Russian occupiers have fled Izyum, a strategically important city that the Russian army had been using as its headquarters for operations in the area for months. Ukrainian troops have been visually confirmed to be in the center of Kupyansk, another city in Kharkiv, and Russian forces are said to be retreating from the third of it that they still hold. Kupyansk is a key railway hub and a strategically important location for the Russian army, at the intersection of several railway lines. Unlike NATO nations, Russia's logistical model is based mainly on moving materiel by train, with motorized transport responsible only for a small distance, at the end of the journey.

… Taken as a whole, Ukraine’s offensive has decisively shown that it has the manpower, resolve and weapons to prosecute the next phase of a war that many analysts and politicians warned would devolve into a prolonged stalemate or war of attrition. And it comes at a time when Russia has threatened to “freeze” Europe by cutting off gas supplies for the coming winter, as cracks in European Union unity on sanctions have apparently widened. On Sept. 8, the United States announced another security package for Ukraine worth $675 million, much of it ammunition for weapons platforms that have already been provided, including the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS).

Ukraine spent months telegraphing its intent to mount a major counteroffensive in the southern region of Kherson. That campaign got underway on Aug. 29, and has made consistent but unspectacular progress. The Kharkiv operation, however, was totally unannounced — not even hinted at. “Basically, the Russians thinned all their troops out to protect Kherson,” said Dr. Mike Martin, a visiting fellow in the Department of War Studies at King's College London. “The Ukrainians spotted this, fixed the Russians in Kherson, and kept a reserve that they used to strike through the Russian line east of Kharkiv, and then managed to capture their two main logistics hubs supplying the Russian effort in the northeast and east of the country.”

As a result, Russian frontlines are now collapsing. One video taken somewhere in Kharkiv and posted to Twitter shows retreating Russian soldiers riding on top of a T-72 tank as it runs into an advance party of Ukrainian special forces. The tank immediately starts shedding soldiers before it finally skids around a sharp bend and careens into a tree.

… Pro-Russian Telegram channels, which in the past have resorted to denial or rationalization to account for Russian losses, are through coping. They are now in a state of panic or full of violent recriminations for what they see as the Kremlin’s incompetence, if not treachery. Ultranationalists are demanding a mobilization and a declaration of martial law in Russia. Some have even called for nuclear strikes on Western Ukraine to force a capitulation.

https://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-russia-w ... 10287.html

The most important details in this article are that the Russian logistics systems are heavily reliant on trains, and Ukraine just took those trains back.

The incompetent and repugnant Putin faces a dire choice. He can stay the course and face defeat in Ukraine (and maybe even Crimea). Or he can wager his regime and the entire Russian nation and (1) mobilize the entire nation for the war (he might have to draft hundreds of thousands of Russian men) and (2) convert (to the extent possible) Russia’s entire manufacturing base to producing weapons.

I don’t think we can rule out extreme and desperate measures by Putin, even the use of nuclear weapons. I think the use of nukes in Ukraine would result in direct U.S. military intervention (aka, WWIII). But a mobilization of the entire Russian nation for war will long precede the nuclear option.

Scary times, but Ukraine is actually winning this war.

DocBarrister

[DocBarrister]

I gotta admit I overestimated how much respect Putin had for Biden.

I didn’t think it was much.

Turned out it was none.

https://fanlax.com/forum/viewtopic.php? ... start=2680

Think Putin has some respect for Joe now?

With President Biden’s help and leadership, Ukraine has been cleaning Putin and Russia’s clock.

DocBarrister

[DocBarrister]

It remains to be seen whether Ukraine can maintain their counteroffensives in the South and Northeast, but they are certainly being aggressive. Ukrainian forces are now reportedly moving towards Lysychansk, the last city that Russia was able to take (in June).

Ukrainian forces appear to have opened a new front against Russian defenses on the border of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

The head of the regional military administration for Luhansk, Serhiy Hayday, posted a message indicating that the city of Lysychansk was the target of the new offensive.

The city was lost to Russian forces and their allied militia after weeks of fierce fighting in June.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/europe/live-new ... index.html

DocBarrister

[Typical Lax Dad]

I gotta admit I overestimated how much respect Putin had for Biden.

I didn’t think it was much.

Turned out it was none.

You lost me. What is it that you think trump would have done had Putin invaded?

Trump, like Obama, thought Ukraine isn’t our problem.

(It’s not)

Putin is the consumate opportunist. Trump and BHO are both irrelevant in the discussion. It is true that BHO admonished his challenger when questioned about the Russian threat... What were those words BHO lambasted Mittens with... The 80s called Mittens, they want their foreign policy back. None of the FLP turnips on this forum that were present at that time did nothing but laugh at POTUS Obama pitch slapping Mittens about the Russian threat. It ain't so funny now is it. To this day I wish Mittens had the balls to call BHO out. The only time Mittens had balls was when he called out trump.. he even sounded angry when doing so. Too late Mittens to prove you have balls. You were a day late and a dollar short there.

I am sure Mittens and Obama care what you think as they review their quarterly statements.

Mittens has an argument to make.. he just doesn't have the balls to make it. He tried to warn BHO and was pitch slapped and acted like a scolded little puppy. I wonder what Mittens has to say about this Russian aggression. He has every right to rub BHOs nose in this horrible underestimation his administration made regarding Russia and Putin. I guess that reset button just didn't work the way the queen of evil anticipated.

Send him an email…..stop chitting your pants over stuff you can’t control.

Putin saw opportunity when the first person from the United States he met from the Biden administration was John F'n Kerry. That showed how serious we were about our relationship. I wonder if Putin was disappointed James Taylor didn't come along and play some Sweet Baby Vladimir.

[old salt]

Details on how Harpoon missiles, donated from a Danish warship, were adapted, with training by US contractors, for deployment & launch from flatbed trucks, claiming to have sunk 2 Russian ships in June. (the Moskva was sunk in Apr, reportedly with a Ukrainian Neptune missile.
...DoD struggling to get the story straight.

https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2022 ... ys/376808/
Ukrainian forces who sank a Russian warship with Harpoon missiles in June were trained by the United States, the Pentagon’s top weapons buyer said.

That key detail of the strike and a few others were disclosed Wednesday by Bill LaPlante, defense undersecretary for acquisition and sustainment, during a conference panel hosted by Defense News near the Pentagon.

LaPlante said the U.S. “brought the Ukrainians to train on [the Harpoon] over Memorial Day weekend, in our country, over Memorial Day weekend.”

A spokesperson for LaPlante said the undersecretary did not mean that the Ukrainians received training in the United States. Instead, she said, he meant that the weekend the Ukrainians received training is called Memorial Day in the United States.

“We got them off the ship, put them on some flatbed trucks, put the Harpoons, the modules on the flatbed truck, and then a different flatbed truck for the power source, connected a cable between it, figured out was exportable, brought the Ukrainians to train on it over Memorial Day weekend, in our country, over Memorial Day weekend, and the next week two Russian ships were sunk with those Harpoons,” he said.

The U.S. was part of a coalition team that did the training, a U.S. defense official said later. A "vendor" trained the Ukrainians, the official said.

The Boeing-made Harpoon anti-ship missiles used in the strike were given to the Ukrainians by a U.S. ally that LaPlante did not disclose. The missiles were removed from the ally’s ship and then mounted on the back of a flatbed truck. A second flatbed truck served as a “power source,” he said. “There's incredible innovation going on right now and we just don't talk about it enough.”

In mid-June, Ukraine said it deployed Harpoons provided by Denmark. Days later, reports emerged that the Ukrainian military had sunk the Russian naval supply ship Spasatel Vasily Bekh. A week later the Pentagon said Ukraine had sunk that ship with Harpoons.

On Wednesday, LaPlante said that Ukrainian forces had since sunk another Russian warship with the Harpoons. He did not name the ship and there is no reporting from the region of a second vessel being sunk.

In June, U.S. officials pledged to send Ukraine vehicle-mounted Harpoons as part of a $1 billion weapons package.

In April, Ukrainian forces used Neptune missiles to sink the Moskva, flagship of Russia’s Black Sea fleet.

Denmark deployed shore based Harpoons on truck mounted launchers from 1990's-2002.
https://news.usni.org/2022/05/23/denmar ... -black-sea
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Royal_Dan ... misbat.jpg

[a fan]

I gotta admit I overestimated how much respect Putin had for Biden.

I didn’t think it was much.

Turned out it was none.

You lost me. What is it that you think trump would have done had Putin invaded?

Trump, like Obama, thought Ukraine isn’t our problem.

(It’s not)

Putin is the consumate opportunist. Trump and BHO are both irrelevant in the discussion. It is true that BHO admonished his challenger when questioned about the Russian threat... What were those words BHO lambasted Mittens with... The 80s called Mittens, they want their foreign policy back. None of the FLP turnips on this forum that were present at that time did nothing but laugh at POTUS Obama pitch slapping Mittens about the Russian threat. It ain't so funny now is it. To this day I wish Mittens had the balls to call BHO out. The only time Mittens had balls was when he called out trump.. he even sounded angry when doing so. Too late Mittens to prove you have balls. You were a day late and a dollar short there.

I am sure Mittens and Obama care what you think as they review their quarterly statements.

Mittens has an argument to make.. he just doesn't have the balls to make it. He tried to warn BHO and was pitch slapped and acted like a scolded little puppy. I wonder what Mittens has to say about this Russian aggression. He has every right to rub BHOs nose in this horrible underestimation his administration made regarding Russia and Putin. I guess that reset button just didn't work the way the queen of evil anticipated.

Send him an email…..stop chitting your pants over stuff you can’t control.

Putin saw opportunity when the first person from the United States he met from the Biden administration was John F'n Kerry. That showed how serious we were about our relationship. I wonder if Putin was disappointed James Taylor didn't come along and play some Sweet Baby Vladimir.

Get it to X-----for heaven's sake......in what world is Donald Trump a tough guy?

And Trump already told the Putin and the world that it's "America First"...telling the world, among other things, that he would NOT have intervened in Ukraine.

Putin had the green light under Trump. Even I understand that.

And come on----how do you not see that Biden and the Ukrainians have royally F'ed Putin?

As I said from the get-go....how the F does Putin think he's going to hold this land? He can't.

[Typical Lax Dad]

I gotta admit I overestimated how much respect Putin had for Biden.

I didn’t think it was much.

Turned out it was none.

You lost me. What is it that you think trump would have done had Putin invaded?

Trump, like Obama, thought Ukraine isn’t our problem.

(It’s not)

Putin is the consumate opportunist. Trump and BHO are both irrelevant in the discussion. It is true that BHO admonished his challenger when questioned about the Russian threat... What were those words BHO lambasted Mittens with... The 80s called Mittens, they want their foreign policy back. None of the FLP turnips on this forum that were present at that time did nothing but laugh at POTUS Obama pitch slapping Mittens about the Russian threat. It ain't so funny now is it. To this day I wish Mittens had the balls to call BHO out. The only time Mittens had balls was when he called out trump.. he even sounded angry when doing so. Too late Mittens to prove you have balls. You were a day late and a dollar short there.

I am sure Mittens and Obama care what you think as they review their quarterly statements.

Mittens has an argument to make.. he just doesn't have the balls to make it. He tried to warn BHO and was pitch slapped and acted like a scolded little puppy. I wonder what Mittens has to say about this Russian aggression. He has every right to rub BHOs nose in this horrible underestimation his administration made regarding Russia and Putin. I guess that reset button just didn't work the way the queen of evil anticipated.

Send him an email…..stop chitting your pants over stuff you can’t control.

Putin saw opportunity when the first person from the United States he met from the Biden administration was John F'n Kerry. That showed how serious we were about our relationship. I wonder if Putin was disappointed James Taylor didn't come along and play some Sweet Baby Vladimir.

Get it to X-----for heaven's sake......in what world is Donald Trump a tough guy?

And Trump already told the Putin and the world that it's "America First"...telling the world, among other things, that he would NOT have intervened in Ukraine.

Putin had the green light under Trump. Even I understand that.

And come on----how do you not see that Biden and the Ukrainians have royally F'ed Putin?

As I said from the get-go....how the F does Putin think he's going to hold this land? He can't.

You were on that early and the first to mention it here. Old Strategist seemed to want The Ukraine to surrender a couple of weeks in….

[DocBarrister]

In Kharkiv Oblast, the Ukrainians have pushed the Russians all the way back to Russia. Ukraine now controls the border village of Hoptivka.

Ukrainian forces on the Russian border - the town of Hoptivka.

The battle of Kharkiv Oblast is an absolute Ukrainian victory.

https://mobile.twitter.com/IAPonomarenk ... 0175202304

DocBarrister

[Typical Lax Dad]

In Kharkiv Oblast, the Ukrainians have pushed the Russians all the way back to Russia. Ukraine now controls the border village of Hoptivka.

Ukrainian forces on the Russian border - the town of Hoptivka.

The battle of Kharkiv Oblast is an absolute Ukrainian victory.

https://mobile.twitter.com/IAPonomarenk ... 0175202304

DocBarrister

Well you just wait until Putin gets really angry. The USA and The Ukraine are just making this thing worse than it needs to be..

—- - - Old Strategist

[Farfromgeneva]

Ukraine’s Rout of Russian Forces Poses Challenge of How to Exploit Gains

Kyiv’s latest offensive has returned more than 1,000 square miles to Ukrainian control, says military chief

By Daniel Michaels and James Marson
Updated Sept. 11, 2022 5:29 pm ET

Ukraine’s military said Sunday it was recapturing villages in the area around Kupyansk and Izyum, two cities that Russian forces fled Saturday as Ukrainian troops advanced on them. Those two cities had been central to a key war goal of Russian President Vladimir Putin: to seize full control of Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions, together known as Donbas. Russian forces have used Izyum as a base to strike other towns in the area.

Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhny, commander in chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, said the military had pushed Russian forces from around 1,150 square miles of territory—around the size of Rhode Island—to the east of Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, since the start of September.

Advertisement - Scroll to Continue

Ukrainian troops made advances in swaths of its Kharkiv region and retook Russian-held towns and cities. Russia's Defense Ministry said Saturday that it is pulling back forces from key areas in the region. Photo: Juan Barreto/AFP/Getty Images
Now, Ukrainian commanders must decide how to exploit their battlefield success and prepare for Russia’s response.

Russia’s military said on Saturday that it was withdrawing from Kupyansk and Izyum, saying it was regrouping forces to defend Donetsk, which Moscow sent a covert proxy force to seize in 2014.

Even as Russian forces retrenched, they shelled parts of the Donetsk region they don’t control, killing 10 people in the city of Pokrovsk on Saturday, according to Donetsk Gov. Pavlo Kyrylenko.

Advertisement - Scroll to Continue

North of Kharkiv, Ukrainian forces also appeared to be pushing toward the border with Russia. Vsevolod Kozhemiako, one of Ukraine’s leading businessmen turned commander, posted a video of himself near the border.

A battlefield map released by Russia’s Defense Ministry on Sunday appeared to indicate that Russian forces had vacated all northern parts of the Kharkiv region where Ukraine is continuing to press its counteroffensive and hasn’t claimed to have recaptured.

“These days, the Russian army is showing its best side—its back,” said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in a statement on his Telegram channel.

The reversal came suddenly, following months of sputtering and ultimately stalled advances by the Russians behind withering artillery fire. After punching through a thinly defended Russian front line last week, Kyiv’s forces have raced forward, routing soldiers caught unprepared to fight. As panic spread in Russian-controlled settlements nearby, troops and occupants sympathetic to Moscow fled, in turn clearing a bigger path for advancing Ukrainian tanks and infantry.

Advertisement - Scroll to Continue


Ukraine’s military said it was recapturing villages in the area around Izyum.Photo: juan barreto/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images
The breakthrough is being hailed by Western military analysts as a great tactical maneuver. On social media, scenes abounded of ecstatic liberated Ukrainians greeting their troops, who ripped down the trappings of Russia’s monthslong occupation including flags and propaganda posters.

Ukraine’s speedy advance helps its cause on many fronts, starting with a morale swing in its favor. Energized, motivated advancing troops tend to fight better than demoralized, retreating defenders. The high-speed maneuver encircled potentially tens of thousands of Russian troops over recent days, Western analysts said.

The attack also appears to be bolstering Ukraine’s armories. Russian troops caught off guard abandoned ammunition and weapons from rifles to tanks and artillery pieces, according to images and reports on social media. They may also have left maps and documents that Ukrainian and Western intelligence analysts will mine for insights into Russia’s plans, tactics and weaknesses. After Russian forces retreated from around Kyiv earlier this year, abandoning camps and equipment, they left behind materials that proved valuable to Ukrainian analysts.

Advertisement - Scroll to Continue

As Kyiv’s forces push east, more Russian targets will fall within range of Ukraine’s advanced Western rocket launchers, such as highly mobile Himars systems, which Kyiv didn’t have as it retreated earlier this year from the regions it is now retaking. Ukraine has used the precision munitions to destroy Russian supplies and air-defense systems, and the recent ground advances put more Russian-controlled territory within their range.

Newsletter Sign-up

What’s News

Catch up on the headlines, understand the news and make better decisions, free in your inbox every day.

Outside Ukraine, its success in retaking within days territory that Russian forces spent weeks struggling to gain will strengthen Kyiv’s argument that it deserves armaments, funding and moral support from the West. Mr. Zelensky has repeatedly said his country can defeat and evict Russian forces, and now that idea appears less aspirational.

While Ukraine remains a long way from winning, its improved battlefield position strengthens its hand in any eventual peace negotiations with Russia.

Mr. Putin has yet to respond to Russia’s losses. Whether the defeats make him more or less threatening to Ukraine and the West remains an open question.

Advertisement - Scroll to Continue

Over recent weeks he has increased economic pressure on Europe by cutting off already dwindling natural-gas flows through the Nord Stream pipeline to Germany and threatened to curtail grain exports from Ukraine.

“Western leaders in Europe have got to be able to say to their people: This is a miserable winter, but after this it gets easier,” said Michael Clarke, a professor of war studies at the University of Exeter in the U.K. “This is Putin’s last best shot, so if we can last out this winter and the Ukrainians look like they can kick the Russians out, things will turn against Putin.”

Ukrainian commanders now need to assess how hard to push ahead. Military history is littered with examples of armies that raced forward only to be blocked or repulsed.

“It’s great to make rapid gains, but the challenge is not to get your troops spread out too far,” said Jeffrey Edmonds, a specialist in national security and Russia and a senior analyst at the Center for a New American Security, a Washington think tank.

Advertisement - Scroll to Continue

Ukrainian forces have the advantage of retaking friendly territory against a retreat, so defending their flanks and rear will be less of a concern than when punching into hostile terrain. Russia’s initial attack on Kyiv in February failed because its troops sped far ahead of their supply lines, leaving soldiers poorly provisioned. That weakened them, opening vulnerabilities to Ukrainian attacks from all directions.


Izyum was used by Russian forces as a base to strike other towns in the area.Photo: Juan Barreto /Agence France-Presse/Getty Images
But even thinly opposed, a charging force requires fuel, ammunition and food that can keep pace. After the Allied invasion of Normandy in 1944, U.S. Army Gen. George S. Patton’s troops raced more than 700 miles to Luxembourg within weeks, but his advance was halted in part because he had outrun supply lines.

“Logistics is the lifeblood of any military,” said Seth Jones, director of the international security program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a think tank in Washington. “Outrunning logistics is a challenge.”

Ukraine accomplished its breakthrough using deceit and surprise. Earlier this summer Mr. Zelensky announced a new offensive on the city of Kherson, in the southeast, and his troops began targeting Russian forces nearby. Russia responded by shifting forces there from Donbas.

Advertisement - Scroll to Continue

Once Russia had relocated the troops, Ukraine last week struck the thinned-out Donbas defenders with its biggest massing of troops, tanks and other weaponry yet in the war. Some military analysts compared Ukraine’s counterattack to Israel’s furtive crossing of the Suez Canal during the Yom Kippur War in 1973 that allowed it to turn the tide in that fight with Arab neighbors.

Around Kherson, meanwhile, as many as 20,000 of Moscow’s troops are defending an occupied city that has now been cut off from resupply by Ukrainian strikes on bridges to their rear. Those bridges across the Dnipro River would also be needed for a Russian escape. Ukrainian troops aren’t advancing aggressively on the city, but time may be on Kyiv’s side in the siege.

Isabel Coles contributed to this article.

Write to Daniel Michaels at [email protected] and James Marson at [email protected]

Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

News and insights on Russia’s attack on Ukraine and the West’s response, selected by the editors

[old salt]

Putin had the green light under Trump. Even I understand that.

That makes no sense. If that were true, Putin would have invaded while Trump was in office & Trump would not have provided the massive US aid which has allowed Ukraine to survive. You are now seeing the impact of US military support & training provided before the war which increased under Trump. Obama (advised by his Ukraine point-man VP Biden, declined to provide lethal military aid.

[a fan]

Putin had the green light under Trump. Even I understand that.

That makes no sense. If that were true, Putin would have invaded while Trump was in office

Nope. I know, this is going over your head because you think everything...and I mean everything..... that happens outside of America is 1000% dependent on the party affiliation of the American President....

.....maybe who was in the White House had NOTHING to do with Putin's timing on his invasion? I know, i know....this means that you Republican don't get to puff up and pretend like Dems are weak, and Republicans like Trump (snicker) are streetwise tough-guys. Because nothing says I'm a tough-guy more than crapping on a gold plated toilet, am-I-right, OS?

.....& Trump would not have provided the massive US aid which has allowed Ukraine to survive. You are now seeing the impact of US military support & training provided before the war which increased under Trump.

Right. All the arms and money sent by Biden, naturally, hasn't been any help whatsoever.

It's all Trump. Only Republicans handle foreign policy perfectly, OS. We get it.

Obama (advised by his Ukraine point-man VP Biden, declined to provide lethal military aid.

Right. So.....why didn't Putin invade from 12-18, while "weak" Obama was in charge? Was he busy putting the finishing touches on his baseball card collection, and just couldn't be bothered? Six years is a big window. And you just told us that Obama refused to send the neat-o stuff that Trump sent so.....tell me why Putin didn't invade under Obama?

Yeah, there it is....you figured it out.......it's pretty obvious that Putin has his own internal reasons for invading when he did, and that had NOTHING to do with who was in the White House. As we can see, his timing was sh(t, among other problems.

But make no mistake: Trump told the world that he'd stop "endless wars" about a million times, OS. What the F do you think that signaled to Putin about Ukraine? It meant: we're not gonna get involved, not our problem. And Trump was CLEARLY not going to send US troops, just like Biden...or Obama, for that matter.

[Farfromgeneva]

Putin had the green light under Trump. Even I understand that.

That makes no sense. If that were true, Putin would have invaded while Trump was in office

Nope. I know, this is going over your head because you think everything...and I mean everything..... that happens outside of America is 1000% dependent on the party affiliation of the American President....

.....maybe who was in the White House had NOTHING to do with Putin's timing on his invasion? I know, i know....this means that you Republican don't get to puff up and pretend like Dems are weak, and Republicans like Trump (snicker) are streetwise tough-guys. Because nothing says I'm a tough-guy more than crapping on a gold plated toilet, am-I-right, OS?

.....& Trump would not have provided the massive US aid which has allowed Ukraine to survive. You are now seeing the impact of US military support & training provided before the war which increased under Trump.

Right. All the arms and money sent by Biden, naturally, hasn't been any help whatsoever.

It's all Trump. Only Republicans handle foreign policy perfectly, OS. We get it.

Obama (advised by his Ukraine point-man VP Biden, declined to provide lethal military aid.

Right. So.....why didn't Putin invade from 12-18, while "weak" Obama was in charge? Was he busy putting the finishing touches on his baseball card collection, and just couldn't be bothered? Six years is a big window. And you just told us that Obama refused to send the neat-o stuff that Trump sent so.....tell me why Putin didn't invade under Obama?

Yeah, there it is....you figured it out.......it's pretty obvious that Putin has his own internal reasons for invading when he did, and that had NOTHING to do with who was in the White House. As we can see, his timing was sh(t, among other problems.

But make no mistake: Trump told the world that he'd stop "endless wars" about a million times, OS. What the F do you think that signaled to Putin about Ukraine? It meant: we're not gonna get involved, not our problem. And Trump was CLEARLY not going to send US troops, just like Biden...or Obama, for that matter.

Speaking of dropping deuces…

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=8EEhFm7Ua6c