All things CoronaVirus

[cradleandshoot]

I had to ask my wife this question and she does not know the answer either. She works at the hospital now to boot. Outside of the carter st entrance to Rochester General Hospital, which is where the employee entrance to the parking ramp is they erected a tent city that would have made Barnum and Bailey green with envy. When i asked her why? She had no idea. Her biggest complaint is her floor has run out of bleach wipes for the patients rooms. So when a patients dumps all over themselves and the floor they have to walk halfway around the floor and find the one spray bottle of bleach solution. Maybe they could have used those funds for the circus tents to buy sanitizing wipes and maybe the masks they need so badly. Is it poor planning or just over reacting to a situation they in reality knew nothing about ? They have the damn tents there, why not have a carnival now?

[Typical Lax Dad]

Hate to jump a post but this is another excellent documentary.... the is what union busting left in its wake....this is basically a companion piece to American Factory. These are the people that have been disinter-mediated from their prior middle class existence.



First break the unions, then buyout older employed making a decent wage, hire young people to work for 1/2 the wage, then move the jobs to people who will work for 1/4..... then complain about China and get angry.

Too bad Ohio decided to go red after blaming Obama for problems he never created. Hate to say I told you so but ...

It’s an excellent Frontline documentary... the people in Ohio were desperate. They were conned by Trump.

When did the UAW jobs depart Ohio, & the rest of the midwest ?

The decline started in the early 1980s. For the wider industry, a couple years before that. The pace picked up. A chunk of it was poor auto industry management...snookered by Japanese auto. We thought we were outsmarting them....

This is where our wealth was transferred to...some flowed up and some flowed down. We didn’t look out for our own people. We took care of a few at the expense of many. It has only accelerated....

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/th ... story.html

[jhu72]

Let's assume for sake of argument that the 60K total deaths number is correct and that we are at peak. Projecting forward just a few hours, we will end day 43 with a total of 18,600 dead. It will take another 43 days to work that number of deaths down to zero, which gives us a total of 37,200 deaths. At current peak rate of 1950 per day, it will take another 12 days at peak to give us a total of 60K dead. So if we are at the peak, we have another 55 days in isolation / social distancing before it is safe to go back in the water. Doing so before then risks starting a second wave almost immediately. This is an optimistic projection, assuming every state is on the same curve, a national curve which is not the case.

You can do the same kind of analysis for each state or local region and come up with shorter end dates for those areas, but then you would have to stop all travel in and out of those areas until every area was clear. You are going to be well into summer before there is any hope of getting back to something like normal. Then you have to be ready to test test test test, far better than anything we have shown any ability to do.

This ignores for the time being the issue of international travel.

[6ftstick]

If at this point I have to explain yet again that I'm on the side of fewer deaths then estimated, that the models were deliberately overweighted to panic us and drive us into isolation then Forget it. Just forget it!

Again, why are you yelling at me? Yell at Trump. He's the one giving out the models.

The news is good, and you're mad at that. You REALLY don't understand how crazy your complaint is? Our officials did the best that they could with the limited and entirely imperfect data that they had on hand.

And your honest complaint is: why aren't there more dead people? Seriously? Really? How you can you POSSIBLY be upset about that?




For me? I'm THRILLED that what we're doing is working.

Oh please

One example: Cuomo Shouts "Trump we need 30,000 ventilators in NY"

Trump says I don't think you need that many. He sends 4000 additional ventilators.

Cuomo Shouts "OK TRUMP you come and pick which 26000 people are going to DIE!!!"

Media acrosss the board——Trumps a monster, incompetent, stubborn a murderer.

Everybody on this forum—That idiot Trump If any one supports Trump you're complicit and you have BLOOD ON YOUR HANDS..

Turns out Trump was correct. SO our defene of Trump was a positive decision.

Pointing out these glaring inaccuracies with expectations and reality on the ground will make the decisions to open up the economy a little easier.

[RedFromMI]

Interesting article on a project being worked on by both Apple and Google for IOS and Android respectively:

https://www.theverge.com/2020/4/10/2121 ... g-data-app

Using bluetooth and random keys generated every 15 minutes phones within BT range would send data to a centralized database which would accumulate contact information. Someone who finds out they are infected would notify an app, which would send notices to those phones in proximity during the estimated times when exposure could occur.

Article discusses pros/cons, including how identities are protected.

[RedFromMI]

If at this point I have to explain yet again that I'm on the side of fewer deaths then estimated, that the models were deliberately overweighted to panic us and drive us into isolation then Forget it. Just forget it!

Again, why are you yelling at me? Yell at Trump. He's the one giving out the models.

The news is good, and you're mad at that. You REALLY don't understand how crazy your complaint is? Our officials did the best that they could with the limited and entirely imperfect data that they had on hand.

And your honest complaint is: why aren't there more dead people? Seriously? Really? How you can you POSSIBLY be upset about that?




For me? I'm THRILLED that what we're doing is working.

Oh please

One example: Cuomo Shouts "Trump we need 30,000 ventilators in NY"

Trump says I don't think you need that many. He sends 4000 additional ventilators.

Cuomo Shouts "OK TRUMP you come and pick which 26000 people are going to DIE!!!"

Media acrosss the board——Trumps a monster, incompetent, stubborn a murderer.

Everybody on this forum—That idiot Trump If any one supports Trump you're complicit and you have BLOOD ON YOUR HANDS..

Turns out Trump was correct. SO our defene of Trump was a positive decision.

Trump ended up correct on this one point, and Cuomo was wrong. He (Trump) was woefully wrong on a bunch of others. If he HAD been more competent we would be looking at a couple of thousand deaths, not 60K. And in NY the number is just shy of 8K.

And Trump is now threatening to undo much of the progress that has been made by "opening up" the country by May 1. The 60K number that is touted over and over assumes full SD until June 1. Not May 1. Relax too soon and you get a second wave.

Now there are things you can do to keep a second wave from happening. If you don't the death count goes up higher. So test, test, test. Active virus tests and post infection serum antibody tests. Then you can begin to relax and use the testing in concert with contact tracing to keep that second wave at bay.

We STILL are not at testing levels originally promised by Trump/Pence. We need to be, or the models are hopelessly optimistic.

[jhu72]

Interesting article on a project being worked on by both Apple and Google for IOS and Android respectively:

https://www.theverge.com/2020/4/10/2121 ... g-data-app

Using bluetooth and random keys generated every 15 minutes phones within BT range would send data to a centralized database which would accumulate contact information. Someone who finds out they are infected would notify an app, which would send notices to those phones in proximity during the estimated times when exposure could occur.

Article discusses pros/cons, including how identities are protected.

Yup. An interesting technological solution to contact tracing, THAT IS HIGHLY INVASIVE, and impinges on our FREEDOM. Sign our "live free or die" freedom and technology solves all problem types right up. No problem.

[CU77]

And second, I agree our healthcare system is a complete mess. a fan hates me for saying so, but we need a two-tiered structure similar to Europe. One, a M4A system, but the trade for that is don't expect JHU Hospital/Mass Gen Hospital levels of care. You get what you get and no one gets to sue. But it also does not cost you a direct penny, other than of course it gets paid for by tax dollars (no such thing as a free lunch).

Then, if people wish to pay for a private system, they have that option too. And by directly paying, you will get much better care. This is how it works in Europe.

https://www.vox.com/health-care/2019/2/ ... is-sanders

What are you talking about? Why would I hate you for saying this?

I agree completely that our healthcare system is a mess. And I would have NO PROBLEM signing up for this hybrid system of yours.....

I also would have no problem. And this is in fact pretty much the Biden plan! You know, Biden, the guy who is the overwhelming choice of Democrat voters for their POTUS nominee.

The Trump plan is free market for all. If you can't pay, too bad for you. Just die.

I would actually LOVE to see that plan implemented! I want to get a job as an armed guard with shoot-to-kill orders at the fortified hospital door.

[RedFromMI]

Interesting article on a project being worked on by both Apple and Google for IOS and Android respectively:

https://www.theverge.com/2020/4/10/2121 ... g-data-app

Using bluetooth and random keys generated every 15 minutes phones within BT range would send data to a centralized database which would accumulate contact information. Someone who finds out they are infected would notify an app, which would send notices to those phones in proximity during the estimated times when exposure could occur.

Article discusses pros/cons, including how identities are protected.

Yup. An interesting technological solution to contact tracing, THAT IS HIGHLY INVASIVE, and impinges on our FREEDOM. Sign our "live free or die" freedom and technology solves all problem types right up. No problem.

Actually the data store is on each user's phone - and only with the user's permission is the data release to send to other phones to look for potential issues. (So I am wrong about the "centralized" database). But it still has an invasive nature potentially. But so is actual contact tracing...

[kramerica.inc]

Yes. All the hospital work was pushed out. People are following instructions, and staying home. Result? Hospitals aren't overwhelmed.

Why in the heck are you complaining about this outcome? You should be thrilled.

Jeezus you can be obtuse.

Those rooms were supposed to be filled and overrun.

Save for NY and a handful of places—some haven't had a patient in them

Yes! What you are telling us is that you would be happier if the beds were more full, and more people were dying.

You're not making any sense. You're complaining that what we are doing is "working too well".

Take it up with Trump, I guess.

Happier if the beds were full?

If at this point I have to explain yet again that I'm on the side of fewer deaths then estimated, that the models were deliberately overweighted to panic us and drive us into isolation then Forget it. Just forget it!

I don't believe the models were 'deliberately overweighted'; I think like most doomsday prognostications, models almost always fail to account for human ingenuity and reaction. Any time someone tells you that America is about to fail or can't react to any negative agent, those are the same people who fail to understand freedom; freedom is the only vaccine man needs to excel.

The models can be wrong. We see examples of it every day.
Heck, the sim lax season actually had Hopkins beating Michigan and Loyola losing to Lehigh.
Both were complete impossibilities in the real world.
So computer modeling obviously has it's faults.

[a fan]

Oh please
One example: Cuomo Shouts "Trump we need 30,000 ventilators in NY"

Trump says I don't think you need that many. He sends 4000 additional ventilators.

Cuomo Shouts "OK TRUMP you come and pick which 26000 people are going to DIE!!!"

It wasn't as bad as we thought, and the shut down is working.

And yet you're angry about that.

Oh please

Media acrosss the board——Trumps a monster, incompetent, stubborn a murderer.

Everybody on this forum—That idiot Trump If any one supports Trump you're complicit and you have BLOOD ON YOUR HANDS..

Turns out Trump was correct. SO our defene of Trump was a positive decision.

No. Trump was NOT correct. He has made a cr*pton of statements that have proven to be wrong.

So has Cuomo. So has everyone. Why does this surprise you? We don't have all the info. we need, and everyone is doing the best we can.

But your conclusion out of this is that everyone is wrong except Trump.

You're not fooling anyone with this. If Trump had a little D by his name, you'd be tearing him a new one this very day. You're cheering him on because he has an R by his name. There isn't an poster here who doesn't know this.....especially you!

Oh please
Pointing out these glaring inaccuracies with expectations and reality on the ground will make the decisions to open up the economy a little easier.

Yes! How is this bad? Again, you are complaining that what we are doing is working. This makes NO sense, and you know it.

[ggait]

Current IHME projections for Sweden is a bit over 13200 deaths (ballpark 130 per 1M). And even though there is no "shutdown", a lot of slowdown has been happening within the Swedish economy as a lot of people are staying closer/close to home.

USA is trending toward a number closer to 200 per 1M, but that is heavily influenced by our late start - leading to it hitting hard and fast.

Red -- I had not focused on the UW projection for Sweden. Sweden has 10 million pop. So 13,200 deaths is 1,320 per million, not 130. Am I messing up the math?

That would be magnitudes worse than Italy or Spain (projected 390). I doubt the Swedes would be continuing with SD lite if they really believed they were going to end up 3X worse than Spain.

[RedFromMI]

Current IHME projections for Sweden is a bit over 13200 deaths (ballpark 130 per 1M). And even though there is no "shutdown", a lot of slowdown has been happening within the Swedish economy as a lot of people are staying closer/close to home.

USA is trending toward a number closer to 200 per 1M, but that is heavily influenced by our late start - leading to it hitting hard and fast.

Red -- I had not focused on the UW projection for Sweden. Sweden has 10 million pop. So 13,200 deaths is 1,320 per million, not 130. Am I messing up the math?

That would be magnitudes worse than Italy or Spain (projected 390). I doubt the Swedes would be continuing with SD lite if they really believed they were going to end up 3X worse than Spain.

No you are right - I dropped a zero. And the IHME page for Sweden shows none of the SD possibilities enacted. I also edited the original post now that you point it out.

[jhu72]

Interesting article on a project being worked on by both Apple and Google for IOS and Android respectively:

https://www.theverge.com/2020/4/10/2121 ... g-data-app

Using bluetooth and random keys generated every 15 minutes phones within BT range would send data to a centralized database which would accumulate contact information. Someone who finds out they are infected would notify an app, which would send notices to those phones in proximity during the estimated times when exposure could occur.

Article discusses pros/cons, including how identities are protected.

Yup. An interesting technological solution to contact tracing, THAT IS HIGHLY INVASIVE, and impinges on our FREEDOM. Sign our "live free or die" freedom and technology solves all problem types right up. No problem.

Actually the data store is on each user's phone - and only with the user's permission is the data release to send to other phones to look for potential issues. (So I am wrong about the "centralized" database). But it still has an invasive nature potentially. But so is actual contact tracing...

There is no way to do contact tracing without it being invasive. It also doesn't work if it is optional. If someone tests positive and doesn't want to provide the who I interacted with information, the system breaks down. Only as good as the weakest link.

The world is too highly populated for humans not to take some responsibility for others. Natural selection has been driving the species this way and will continue to.

[Peter Brown]

Yes. All the hospital work was pushed out. People are following instructions, and staying home. Result? Hospitals aren't overwhelmed.

Why in the heck are you complaining about this outcome? You should be thrilled.

Jeezus you can be obtuse.

Those rooms were supposed to be filled and overrun.

Save for NY and a handful of places—some haven't had a patient in them

Yes! What you are telling us is that you would be happier if the beds were more full, and more people were dying.

You're not making any sense. You're complaining that what we are doing is "working too well".

Take it up with Trump, I guess.

Happier if the beds were full?

If at this point I have to explain yet again that I'm on the side of fewer deaths then estimated, that the models were deliberately overweighted to panic us and drive us into isolation then Forget it. Just forget it!

I don't believe the models were 'deliberately overweighted'; I think like most doomsday prognostications, models almost always fail to account for human ingenuity and reaction. Any time someone tells you that America is about to fail or can't react to any negative agent, those are the same people who fail to understand freedom; freedom is the only vaccine man needs to excel.

The models can be wrong. We see examples of it every day.
Heck, the sim lax season actually had Hopkins beating Michigan and Loyola losing to Lehigh.
Both were complete impossibilities in the real world.
So computer modeling obviously has it's faults.

Obviously I’m not listening anymore to models. Loyola losing to Lehigh?!?!!!!

[ggait]

No you are right - I dropped a zero. And the IHME page for Sweden shows none of the SD possibilities enacted.

It could be difficult to model the Swedish approach (which few others are following). Very little mandatory SD in place, but high compliance with the voluntary SD lite. So does that work out to like 75% of full monty mandatory SD? 60%? 50%? I guess we'll find out in 3-4 weeks.

[wgdsr]

If at this point I have to explain yet again that I'm on the side of fewer deaths then estimated, that the models were deliberately overweighted to panic us and drive us into isolation then Forget it. Just forget it!

Again, why are you yelling at me? Yell at Trump. He's the one giving out the models.

The news is good, and you're mad at that. You REALLY don't understand how crazy your complaint is? Our officials did the best that they could with the limited and entirely imperfect data that they had on hand.

And your honest complaint is: why aren't there more dead people? Seriously? Really? How you can you POSSIBLY be upset about that?




For me? I'm THRILLED that what we're doing is working.

Oh please

One example: Cuomo Shouts "Trump we need 30,000 ventilators in NY"

Trump says I don't think you need that many. He sends 4000 additional ventilators.

Cuomo Shouts "OK TRUMP you come and pick which 26000 people are going to DIE!!!"

Media acrosss the board——Trumps a monster, incompetent, stubborn a murderer.

Everybody on this forum—That idiot Trump If any one supports Trump you're complicit and you have BLOOD ON YOUR HANDS..

Turns out Trump was correct. SO our defene of Trump was a positive decision.

Trump ended up correct on this one point, and Cuomo was wrong. He (Trump) was woefully wrong on a bunch of others. If he HAD been more competent we would be looking at a couple of thousand deaths, not 60K. And in NY the number is just shy of 8K.

And Trump is now threatening to undo much of the progress that has been made by "opening up" the country by May 1. The 60K number that is touted over and over assumes full SD until June 1. Not May 1. Relax too soon and you get a second wave.

Now there are things you can do to keep a second wave from happening. If you don't the death count goes up higher. So test, test, test. Active virus tests and post infection serum antibody tests. Then you can begin to relax and use the testing in concert with contact tracing to keep that second wave at bay.

We STILL are not at testing levels originally promised by Trump/Pence. We need to be, or the models are hopelessly optimistic.

diblasio kept his schools open until march 15, finally relented under pressure from teachers, parents the governor (a day or 2 earlier). said because of school lunches and day care. he probably would change his actions now.
my suburban/rural county with almost nothing going at that point had already done that. and suspended sports almost a week earlier.
hindsight is 20/20 and a lot of our posts are not going to age well.
a lot of decisions are not going to age well, on both sides.
that is the nature of pandemics. strategies are oh so much clearer once real data comes in.
do i think we could and should have a ton more effort and money on testing?
i do. maybe that matters, a little or a lot. we do not know yet for sure, and certainly my opinion does not matter.
do i think we could/should be pushing possible treatments faster and harder?
i do.
that may or may not age well, but that's the thought on april 10.

in october or 2022 a lot of opinions and decisions will look good or bad. hindsight is 20/20.

[a fan]

hindsight is 20/20 and a lot of our posts are not going to age well.
a lot of decisions are not going to age well, on both sides.
that is the nature of pandemics. strategies are oh so much clearer once real data comes in.

+1. Bravo.

6ft, I want to get back to work every bit as much as you do. We'll get there! You should be heartened by the response of your fellow Americans. I know I am. Benefits, fundraisers, sending food to doctors, grandma's like mine making masks as fast as they can.

Someone posted this somewhere, but think of Apollo 13. I hope this is our finest hour.

[Kismet]

Downtown Los Angles yesterday - notice anything different?

[Bart]

I had to ask my wife this question and she does not know the answer either. She works at the hospital now to boot. Outside of the carter st entrance to Rochester General Hospital, which is where the employee entrance to the parking ramp is they erected a tent city that would have made Barnum and Bailey green with envy. When i asked her why? She had no idea. Her biggest complaint is her floor has run out of bleach wipes for the patients rooms. So when a patients dumps all over themselves and the floor they have to walk halfway around the floor and find the one spray bottle of bleach solution. Maybe they could have used those funds for the circus tents to buy sanitizing wipes and maybe the masks they need so badly. Is it poor planning or just over reacting to a situation they in reality knew nothing about ? They have the damn tents there, why not have a carnival now?

That is good. Actually that is great. But at noon on channel 13 they were thinking the peak was two weeks away. They are preparing for the worst I would think. They were talking to Adam Bello on channel 13 at noon, the county comish, at the convention center (I think that is the name of it) that they are preparing just in case. Strong and RGH have been asked to increase capacity just in case. FFTH has been asked to do the same. Right now the numbers are flat to slightly increasing. This is good news. Prepare for the worst and take flak for over reacting I suppose if it does not materialize.