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Posted: **Sat May 04, 2024 4:36 pm**

CU77 wrote: ↑Sat May 04, 2024 4:05 pm Multiple committee chairs have said over the years that a win in May means no more or less than a win in February.

I am not arguing about what the committee has said. I am pointing out it is a completely flawed logic. Teams can improve or regress over a season. Young kids tend to grow more over a course of a season. Injuries happen. Most people on this site can identify those things. RPI can not. I think the committee should be able to also. I am saying the committee should use all the information available.

Posted: **Sat May 04, 2024 4:41 pm**

coda wrote: ↑Sat May 04, 2024 4:36 pm
CU77 wrote: ↑Sat May 04, 2024 4:05 pm Multiple committee chairs have said over the years that a win in May means no more or less than a win in February.
I am not arguing about what the committee has said. I am pointing out it is a completely flawed logic. Teams can improve or regress over a season. Young kids tend to grow more over a course of a season. Injuries happen. Most people on this site can identify those things. RPI can not. I think the committee should be able to also. I am saying the committee should use all the information available.

CU77... do you agree with the committee chairs? I think you're a strictly math guy and prob do? Any bias there for Big Red?

Posted: **Sat May 04, 2024 4:47 pm**

coda wrote: ↑Sat May 04, 2024 4:36 pm
CU77 wrote: ↑Sat May 04, 2024 4:05 pm Multiple committee chairs have said over the years that a win in May means no more or less than a win in February.
I am not arguing about what the committee has said. I am pointing out it is a completely flawed logic. Teams can improve or regress over a season. Young kids tend to grow more over a course of a season. Injuries happen. Most people on this site can identify those things. RPI can not. I think the committee should be able to also. I am saying the committee should use all the information available.

Teams do get rewarded for getting hot at the of the year. It’s called an “automatic qualifier.” Win your conference or beat good teams. Teams on the bubble rarely have a realistic shot at a championship, so it’s all semantics at a certain point.

Posted: **Sat May 04, 2024 5:00 pm**

tech37 wrote: ↑Sat May 04, 2024 4:41 pm
coda wrote: ↑Sat May 04, 2024 4:36 pm
CU77 wrote: ↑Sat May 04, 2024 4:05 pm Multiple committee chairs have said over the years that a win in May means no more or less than a win in February.
I am not arguing about what the committee has said. I am pointing out it is a completely flawed logic. Teams can improve or regress over a season. Young kids tend to grow more over a course of a season. Injuries happen. Most people on this site can identify those things. RPI can not. I think the committee should be able to also. I am saying the committee should use all the information available.
CU77... do you agree with the committee chairs? I think you're a strictly math guy and prob do? Any bias there for Big Red?

There is nothing wrong with the math in RPI. It is the lack of inputs, that is the problem. Use Yale as an example. They are clearly worse without a single healthy FOGO, than they were with a healthy room. RPI does not have an input to account for that. Some modes do use a recency bias. I know in the case of Colley it has shown to be more accurate. You can think of it this way. Say you want to predict how your 20 year old car will preform over the next year. Should you use the median performance over the last 20 years or more heavily weight the last couple years?

Posted: **Sat May 04, 2024 5:29 pm**

tech37 wrote: ↑Sat May 04, 2024 4:41 pm CU77... do you agree with the committee chairs? I think you're a strictly math guy and prob do? Any bias there for Big Red?

No. I would like to see a 9-team NCAA tournament of conference-tournament-winners only.

But since absolutely no one agrees with me on that: then I would use Massey ratings to select ALs and seed overall.

https://masseyratings.com/clax/ncaa-d1/ratings

Posted: **Sat May 04, 2024 5:31 pm**

Towson won’t be a fun opponent for any team in the first round. Physical squad that’s well balanced, peaking at the right time with a fifth year leader.

Watch out.

Posted: **Sat May 04, 2024 5:31 pm**

Who wants to play St. Joes in the 1st round? Raise your hand....

Posted: **Sat May 04, 2024 5:38 pm**

coda wrote: ↑Sat May 04, 2024 5:00 pm
tech37 wrote: ↑Sat May 04, 2024 4:41 pm
coda wrote: ↑Sat May 04, 2024 4:36 pm
CU77 wrote: ↑Sat May 04, 2024 4:05 pm Multiple committee chairs have said over the years that a win in May means no more or less than a win in February.
I am not arguing about what the committee has said. I am pointing out it is a completely flawed logic. Teams can improve or regress over a season. Young kids tend to grow more over a course of a season. Injuries happen. Most people on this site can identify those things. RPI can not. I think the committee should be able to also. I am saying the committee should use all the information available.
CU77... do you agree with the committee chairs? I think you're a strictly math guy and prob do? Any bias there for Big Red?
There is nothing wrong with the math in RPI. It is the lack of inputs, that is the problem. Use Yale as an example. They are clearly worse without a single healthy FOGO, than they were with a healthy room. RPI does not have an input to account for that. Some modes do use a recency bias. I know in the case of Colley it has shown to be more accurate. You can think of it this way. Say you want to predict how your 20 year old car will preform over the next year. Should you use the median performance over the last 20 years or more heavily weight the last couple years?

Agreed..."nothing wrong with RPI math." At same time, ND 2022 should have been in. Subjectivity beyond RPI is important and we prob agree on that too. Mich wins tonight and we'll see if committee goes strictly RPI or other?

Posted: **Sat May 04, 2024 5:42 pm**

oldbartman wrote: ↑Sat May 04, 2024 5:31 pm Who wants to play St. Joes in the 1st round? Raise your hand....

Right. Or... BU/Lehigh. Towson looking tough as well. Who am I forgetting? Albany maybe...just Piseno alone...
Go Nova!

Posted: **Sat May 04, 2024 5:43 pm**

Who wants to play Hopkins in the first round?

Everyone should be raising their hand

Posted: **Sat May 04, 2024 5:44 pm**

oldbartman wrote: ↑Sat May 04, 2024 5:31 pm Who wants to play St. Joes in the 1st round? Raise your hand....

St Joe’s and Towson are gonna be problems. Long winning streaks, peaking going into the tournament. St Joe’s last loss ironically was to Towson.

Posted: **Sat May 04, 2024 5:45 pm**

CU77 wrote: ↑Sat May 04, 2024 5:29 pm
tech37 wrote: ↑Sat May 04, 2024 4:41 pm CU77... do you agree with the committee chairs? I think you're a strictly math guy and prob do? Any bias there for Big Red?
No. I would like to see a 9-team NCAA tournament of conference-tournament-winners only.

But since absolutely no one agrees with me on that: then I would use Massey ratings to select ALs and seed overall.

https://masseyratings.com/clax/ncaa-d1/ratings

That dramatically cheapens the regular season, making it virtually meaningless.

Posted: **Sat May 04, 2024 5:47 pm**

norcalhop wrote: ↑Sat May 04, 2024 5:43 pm Who wants to play Hopkins in the first round?

Everyone should be raising their hand

I think I’d bet on most opponents versus Hop right now. But, if they can survive round 1, you never know.

Posted: **Sat May 04, 2024 5:57 pm**

Chousnake wrote: ↑Sat May 04, 2024 5:45 pm
CU77 wrote: ↑Sat May 04, 2024 5:29 pm
tech37 wrote: ↑Sat May 04, 2024 4:41 pm CU77... do you agree with the committee chairs? I think you're a strictly math guy and prob do? Any bias there for Big Red?
No. I would like to see a 9-team NCAA tournament of conference-tournament-winners only.

But since absolutely no one agrees with me on that: then I would use Massey ratings to select ALs and seed overall.

https://masseyratings.com/clax/ncaa-d1/ratings
That dramatically cheapens the regular season, making it virtually meaningless.

Tournaments do that, not Massey

Posted: **Sat May 04, 2024 6:00 pm**

Chousnake wrote: ↑Sat May 04, 2024 5:45 pm That dramatically cheapens the regular season, making it virtually meaningless.

The NCAA tournament dramatically cheapens the regular season, making it virtually meaningless.

Posted: **Sat May 04, 2024 6:06 pm**

CU77 wrote: ↑Sat May 04, 2024 6:00 pm
Chousnake wrote: ↑Sat May 04, 2024 5:45 pm That dramatically cheapens the regular season, making it virtually meaningless.
The NCAA tournament dramatically cheapens the regular season, making it virtually meaningless.

Bring back the Wingate Memorial Trophy

!

DocBarrister

Posted: **Sat May 04, 2024 6:08 pm**

No voting allowed either!

Posted: **Sat May 04, 2024 6:12 pm**

With each game result, wiujd someone post which other teams that helps or hurts?

For example, does Towson’s win help Hopkins and UVA?

Posted: **Sat May 04, 2024 6:13 pm**

laxreference wrote: ↑Sat May 04, 2024 2:38 pm
wgdsr wrote: ↑Sat May 04, 2024 12:49 pm Lacrosse reference on his biggest weekend of the year looks like he's been kidnapped and data is getting entered by his drunk pet monkey.
Haha. Had a bug that royally screwed things up on Thursday night. Had the RPI fixed by yesterday and the underlying problem fixed this morning. RPI should be good to go from here on out.

i dunno, there might be more bugs. under d1 rpi, you have nd and uva posted with incorrect records. in the result of their game last night, each of them are shown as winning when u go to the schedule. cornell is showing a better record than they have. duke a worse record.

i doubt uva jumped to 3 and another site has cornell at 12, not 9. there are a bunch of others. i think u still have some problems in it.

Posted: **Sat May 04, 2024 6:24 pm**

DocBarrister wrote: ↑Sat May 04, 2024 6:06 pm
CU77 wrote: ↑Sat May 04, 2024 6:00 pm
Chousnake wrote: ↑Sat May 04, 2024 5:45 pm That dramatically cheapens the regular season, making it virtually meaningless.
The NCAA tournament dramatically cheapens the regular season, making it virtually meaningless.
Bring back the Wingate Memorial Trophy !

DocBarrister

And the smoke-filled room located in Baltimore!

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