LaxPower Back-Up Stick

HopFan16 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 25, 2023 10:49 am

MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 25, 2023 10:28 am

HopFan16 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 25, 2023 10:00 am

ICGrad wrote: ↑Tue Apr 25, 2023 9:31 am Yes, they're a step behind the heavy hitters in their conference, but jettisoning him and hoping for a new coach to take you to the same level as a Virginia is pretty risky. Just ask any of the SEC schools who have had revolving doors of coaches as they desperately try to best Alabama.

Why is it any riskier than doing nothing and just hoping things turn around? As you said, they're already a step behind.

If the goal is to go 7-7 and miss the tournament most years, then there's plenty of other coaches who can do that just fine. Feels like if they are ever going to make a change, it would be now, otherwise just give Breschi a lifetime appointment and cut out all the uncertainty.

UNC the school recruits itself. IF they were to hire a new coach, that person shouldn't have much trouble bringing good players in.

That's true, but winning championships is another matter. No guarantees.
Being at least in the hunt most years is a reasonable goal, and unless UNC is in a death spiral, which at least IMO it hasn't been, no reason to expect things to worsen rather than bounce back.

Where coaches tend to get bounced or 'not-renewed' is when there are other frictions as well as slippage in winning...I haven't heard that to be the case at UNC, but if that was present, then sure, now would be the time.

Except UNC hasn't been in the hunt most years unless you have a very charitable definition of either "in the hunt" or "most years."

I wouldn't say they're in a death spiral either but shouldn't you want to make a move before that has a chance of happening? Things may not be completely dire but they can get worse. See: Hopkins, Johns. A lot of people didn't think it could get much worse than 2016 or 2017. Then 2019 happened. Then before you know it you're 2-4, getting destroyed by peer programs every week, and needing an overtime miracle to beat Mount St. Mary's at home.

Not much in the cupboard for them on offense for 2024

HopFan16 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 25, 2023 10:49 am

MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 25, 2023 10:28 am

HopFan16 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 25, 2023 10:00 am

ICGrad wrote: ↑Tue Apr 25, 2023 9:31 am Yes, they're a step behind the heavy hitters in their conference, but jettisoning him and hoping for a new coach to take you to the same level as a Virginia is pretty risky. Just ask any of the SEC schools who have had revolving doors of coaches as they desperately try to best Alabama.

Why is it any riskier than doing nothing and just hoping things turn around? As you said, they're already a step behind.

If the goal is to go 7-7 and miss the tournament most years, then there's plenty of other coaches who can do that just fine. Feels like if they are ever going to make a change, it would be now, otherwise just give Breschi a lifetime appointment and cut out all the uncertainty.

UNC the school recruits itself. IF they were to hire a new coach, that person shouldn't have much trouble bringing good players in.

That's true, but winning championships is another matter. No guarantees.
Being at least in the hunt most years is a reasonable goal, and unless UNC is in a death spiral, which at least IMO it hasn't been, no reason to expect things to worsen rather than bounce back.

Where coaches tend to get bounced or 'not-renewed' is when there are other frictions as well as slippage in winning...I haven't heard that to be the case at UNC, but if that was present, then sure, now would be the time.

Except UNC hasn't been in the hunt most years unless you have a very charitable definition of either "in the hunt" or "most years."

I wouldn't say they're in a death spiral either but shouldn't you want to make a move before that has a chance of happening? Things may not be completely dire but they can get worse. See: Hopkins, Johns. A lot of people didn't think it could get much worse than 2016 or 2017. Then 2019 happened. Then before you know it you're 2-4, getting destroyed by peer programs every week, and needing an overtime miracle to beat Mount St. Mary's at home.

To be clear, I'm not a UNC fan nor Breschi friend or whatever, so really no dog in the hunt.
Indeed, my more favored teams compete with them, some annually, others intermittently.
I've known, coached, some of the youngsters who went there, but could say that about various other places.

To be fair, wouldn't you agree that UNC has been more "in the hunt" this past decade than Hopkins?

I'd say Hop is "in the hunt" this year, somewhat surprisingly (though I'm not at all surprised by it eventually happening), which is fun to see again, but it's been awhile...and right now the season could go in reverse as easily as a late run occurring.

What I mean by "in the hunt" is top 10 level performance in season, solid chance at NCAA quarters, with luck semis...and a lot of luck NC.

My point was not to suggest that UNC shouldn't aspire to NCs, but rather that if there aren't other troubles in the program, especially off-field, as frankly, it could be argued was the case at some other high profile programs, support for a coach regularly "in the hunt" is easier than taking a risk.

That said, I have no idea about the relationship between AD and coach...just a generic opinion.

MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 25, 2023 1:00 pm To be clear, I'm not a UNC fan nor Breschi friend or whatever, so really no dog in the hunt.
Indeed, my more favored teams compete with them, some annually, others intermittently.
I've known, coached, some of the youngsters who went there, but could say that about various other places.

To be fair, wouldn't you agree that UNC has been more "in the hunt" this past decade than Hopkins?

I'd say Hop is "in the hunt" this year, somewhat surprisingly (though I'm not at all surprised by it eventually happening), which is fun to see again, but it's been awhile...and right now the season could go in reverse as easily as a late run occurring.

What I mean by "in the hunt" is top 10 level performance in season, solid chance at NCAA quarters, with luck semis...and a lot of luck NC.

My point was not to suggest that UNC shouldn't aspire to NCs, but rather that if there aren't other troubles in the program, especially off-field, as frankly, it could be argued was the case at some other high profile programs, support for a coach regularly "in the hunt" is easier than taking a risk.

That said, I have no idea about the relationship between AD and coach...just a generic opinion.

Yes. Hopkins appears to have turned things around after... getting a new coach.

MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 25, 2023 1:00 pm To be fair, wouldn't you agree that UNC has been more "in the hunt" this past decade than Hopkins?

No not really. Here are the last 10 seasons. Bold is the team with the indisputably better season

2014: UNC 10-5 lose first round | Hop 11-5 quarterfinalist
2015: UNC 13-4 quarterfinalist | Hop 11-7 final four
2016: UNC 12-6 national champion | Hop 8-7 lose first round
2017: UNC 8-8 lose first round | Hop 8-7 lose first round
2018: UNC 7-7 no tourney | Hop 12-5 quarterfinalist
2019: UNC 8-7 no tourney | Hop 8-7 lose first round
2020: UNC 7-0 | Hop 2-4 (Covid)
------ Petro out
2021: UNC 13-3 final four | Hop 4-9 no tourney
2022: UNC 8-6 no tourney | Hop 7-9 no tourney
2023: UNC 7-7 no tourney | Hop 11-4 yes tourney

In total:

UNC — 4 missed tournaments, 3 QF appearances
Hop — 2 missed tournaments, 3 QF appearances

Hop had 5 better seasons to UNC's 3, with a few ties.

So if the definition of "in the hunt" is to have a solid chance at the quarters, UNC has not been in the hunt any more than Hopkins has over the last decade and that includes the two most recent seasons with Hop's new staff and UNC with Chris Gray. You can't make the quarters if you don't make the playoffs. If UNC misses this year, they will have missed 4 of the last 5 tournaments. Maybe Carolina is fine with that because the one good full season resulted in a FF appearance. But the trend line since 2016 is on a clear downward trajectory, no? Do we think it's more likely it stays on this path (or levels out) or does a sharp turn in the other direction?

Just to be clear, I don't care what UNC does. Breschi seems like a nice guy and he's obviously had success in the past and yes he's gotten the better of Hopkins in H2H matchups in recent years. But coaches have been let go for less. It depends on what the AD's goals are which I suppose none of us actually know in this case.

One most remember, and no offense to any other program, that when it comes to recruiting, recent game results aside, UNC has more to offer than any other program besides UVA. However, that said, they don't, as someone implied above, sell themselves. See the Dave Klarmann(as soon as the talent was his) and the John Haus eras. Neither were great with recruiting, and it led to disappointing seasons.

HopFan16 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 25, 2023 1:30 pm

MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 25, 2023 1:00 pm To be fair, wouldn't you agree that UNC has been more "in the hunt" this past decade than Hopkins?

No not really. Here are the last 10 seasons. Bold is the team with the indisputably better season

2014: UNC 10-5 lose first round | Hop 11-5 quarterfinalist
2015: UNC 13-4 quarterfinalist | Hop 11-7 final four
2016: UNC 12-6 national champion | Hop 8-7 lose first round
2017: UNC 8-8 lose first round | Hop 8-7 lose first round
2018: UNC 7-7 no tourney | Hop 12-5 quarterfinalist
2019: UNC 8-7 no tourney | Hop 8-7 lose first round
2020: UNC 7-0 | Hop 2-4 (Covid)
------ Petro out
2021: UNC 13-3 final four | Hop 4-9 no tourney
2022: UNC 8-6 no tourney | Hop 7-9 no tourney
2023: UNC 7-7 no tourney | Hop 11-4 yes tourney

In total:

UNC — 4 missed tournaments, 3 QF appearances
Hop — 2 missed tournaments, 3 QF appearances

Hop had 5 better seasons to UNC's 3, with a few ties.

So if the definition of "in the hunt" is to have a solid chance at the quarters, UNC has not been in the hunt any more than Hopkins has over the last decade and that includes the two most recent seasons with Hop's new staff and UNC with Chris Gray. You can't make the quarters if you don't make the playoffs. If UNC misses this year, they will have missed 4 of the last 5 tournaments. Maybe Carolina is fine with that because the one good full season resulted in a FF appearance. But the trend line since 2016 is on a clear downward trajectory, no? Do we think it's more likely it stays on this path (or levels out) or does a sharp turn in the other direction?

Just to be clear, I don't care what UNC does. Breschi seems like a nice guy and he's obviously had success in the past and yes he's gotten the better of Hopkins in H2H matchups in recent years. But coaches have been let go for less. It depends on what the AD's goals are which I suppose none of us actually know in this case.

I should have done more rigorous homework myself ...let's just say that my impression of "in the hunt" has probably been skewed by the NC.

As to "Chris Gray", a whole lot of teams have had the benefit of a key transfer or two or three...including Hopkins this year, apparently. Sometimes that pays off unexpectedly well, sometimes comes up short of expectations.

10 10 2 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 25, 2023 1:10 pm

MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 25, 2023 1:00 pm To be clear, I'm not a UNC fan nor Breschi friend or whatever, so really no dog in the hunt.
Indeed, my more favored teams compete with them, some annually, others intermittently.
I've known, coached, some of the youngsters who went there, but could say that about various other places.

To be fair, wouldn't you agree that UNC has been more "in the hunt" this past decade than Hopkins?

I'd say Hop is "in the hunt" this year, somewhat surprisingly (though I'm not at all surprised by it eventually happening), which is fun to see again, but it's been awhile...and right now the season could go in reverse as easily as a late run occurring.

What I mean by "in the hunt" is top 10 level performance in season, solid chance at NCAA quarters, with luck semis...and a lot of luck NC.

My point was not to suggest that UNC shouldn't aspire to NCs, but rather that if there aren't other troubles in the program, especially off-field, as frankly, it could be argued was the case at some other high profile programs, support for a coach regularly "in the hunt" is easier than taking a risk.

That said, I have no idea about the relationship between AD and coach...just a generic opinion.

Yes. Hopkins appears to have turned things around after... getting a new coach.

And, IMO, key factors in that happening were the frictions and issues that existed that were not W's and L's. W's do trump such for awhile, but when the W's got fewer, it was easier...and it still was very controversial... and there were some darn good recruits reportedly in the pipeline...so, who knows what would have happened.

That said, if UNC makes such a move purely on the W's, they better have a darn good replacement lined up. But decisions like that do get made.

gymman1031 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 25, 2023 2:13 pm One most remember, and no offense to any other program, that when it comes to recruiting, recent game results aside, UNC has more to offer than any other program besides UVA. However, that said, they don't, as someone implied above, sell themselves. See the Dave Klarmann(as soon as the talent was his) and the John Haus eras. Neither were great with recruiting, and it led to disappointing seasons.

On your latter point, I quite agree...still need to spot talent, sell it, close it...then develop it.

I suspect some other programs might quibble on the first point.

HopFan16 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 24, 2023 7:56 am

10 10 2 wrote: ↑Sun Apr 23, 2023 11:24 pm Hypothetical time. Been thinking about this the last week or so. Let's say North Carolina parts ways with Breschi. Who are the top candidates for that job? I've got a few people in mind but was wondering what others thought.

Mentioned this in another thread but it's more appropriate here.

Petro
Feifs
Seremet
Haus
Galloway
Polley
Moran
Kirwan
Wellner
Georgalas
Mitchell

It's a big enough job that they'd probably be able to at least bring an unexpected big name in to interview. Shay? Tambroni? Perhaps of note, Matt Madalon's brother played at Carolina. Never wise to bet against an Ivy coach leaving for another big job.

For the level of program/history that UNC has you need to hone in on a few things:
- Who are the best recruiters in the country currently
- Who has the network to attract the best Assistant Coaches (player developement, recruiting etc)
- Who would be a great CEO, run a clean program, attract the best players and be able to garner alumni support and engagement

All everyone is talking about is UNC. Are there any other coaches on the hot seat?

Brownlax wrote: ↑Thu Apr 27, 2023 9:19 am All everyone is talking about is UNC. Are there any other coaches on the hot seat?

That is very true. And, the truth is, I think that the talks about UNC have been overdone a bit. Breschi's job is NOT in jeopardy just yet. One coach who may be feeling heat is Colgate's Matt Karweck. Since 2019, he is 12-40. Including 1-9 this year.

Laxinmay wrote: ↑Thu Apr 27, 2023 9:15 am

HopFan16 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 24, 2023 7:56 am

10 10 2 wrote: ↑Sun Apr 23, 2023 11:24 pm Hypothetical time. Been thinking about this the last week or so. Let's say North Carolina parts ways with Breschi. Who are the top candidates for that job? I've got a few people in mind but was wondering what others thought.

Mentioned this in another thread but it's more appropriate here.

Petro
Feifs
Seremet
Haus
Galloway
Polley
Moran
Kirwan
Wellner
Georgalas
Mitchell

It's a big enough job that they'd probably be able to at least bring an unexpected big name in to interview. Shay? Tambroni? Perhaps of note, Matt Madalon's brother played at Carolina. Never wise to bet against an Ivy coach leaving for another big job.

For the level of program/history that UNC has you need to hone in on a few things:
- Who are the best recruiters in the country currently
- Who has the network to attract the best Assistant Coaches (player developement, recruiting etc)
- Who would be a great CEO, run a clean program, attract the best players and be able to garner alumni support and engagement

Really?
-You don't need to be the best recruiter at UNC, it's UNC
-Most any asst. coach--and many HC's-- would leave their current position to be an assistant there
-Again, anyone with HC experience should be able to handle everything/anything needed, save Dave Klarmann

FMUBart wrote: ↑Thu Apr 27, 2023 3:41 pm

Laxinmay wrote: ↑Thu Apr 27, 2023 9:15 am

HopFan16 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 24, 2023 7:56 am

10 10 2 wrote: ↑Sun Apr 23, 2023 11:24 pm Hypothetical time. Been thinking about this the last week or so. Let's say North Carolina parts ways with Breschi. Who are the top candidates for that job? I've got a few people in mind but was wondering what others thought.

Mentioned this in another thread but it's more appropriate here.

Petro
Feifs
Seremet
Haus
Galloway
Polley
Moran
Kirwan
Wellner
Georgalas
Mitchell

It's a big enough job that they'd probably be able to at least bring an unexpected big name in to interview. Shay? Tambroni? Perhaps of note, Matt Madalon's brother played at Carolina. Never wise to bet against an Ivy coach leaving for another big job.

For the level of program/history that UNC has you need to hone in on a few things:
- Who are the best recruiters in the country currently
- Who has the network to attract the best Assistant Coaches (player developement, recruiting etc)
- Who would be a great CEO, run a clean program, attract the best players and be able to garner alumni support and engagement

Really?
-You don't need to be the best recruiter at UNC, it's UNC
-Most any asst. coach--and many HC's-- would leave their current position to be an assistant there
-Again, anyone with HC experience should be able to handle everything/anything needed, save Dave Klarmann

You definitely have to be a great recruiter, even at UNC, to get great talent. See Dave Klarmann and John Haus.

Honestly its tough to predict what jobs might open but I think these schools should open soon....

Hofstra
UNC
Colgate
Bucknell
Sacred Heart

LI_Lax14 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 27, 2023 4:20 pm Honestly its tough to predict what jobs might open but I think these schools should open soon....

Hofstra
UNC
Colgate
Bucknell
Sacred Heart

It would be a shame to see Bucknell's long-time coach Frank Fedorjaka's tenure there end in a negative way. However, if they miss the conference tournament in 2024 for a second-consecutive season, his seat could be quite warm.

gymman1031 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 27, 2023 4:27 pm

LI_Lax14 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 27, 2023 4:20 pm Honestly its tough to predict what jobs might open but I think these schools should open soon....

Hofstra
UNC
Colgate
Bucknell
Sacred Heart

It would be a shame to see Bucknell's long-time coach Frank Fedorjaka's tenure there end in a negative way. However, if they miss the conference tournament in 2024 for a second-consecutive season, his seat could be quite warm.

Coach Fedorjaka does have a pretty young team this year.

Colgate extended Karweck until 2027 and they do not have a permanent AD so he should be fine for a while.

colbulmad wrote: ↑Thu Apr 27, 2023 4:45 pm Colgate extended Karweck until 2027 and they do not have a permanent AD so he should be fine for a while.

That is good for him. I do hope improvement is shown soon, though.

gymman1031 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 27, 2023 3:53 pm

FMUBart wrote: ↑Thu Apr 27, 2023 3:41 pm

Laxinmay wrote: ↑Thu Apr 27, 2023 9:15 am

HopFan16 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 24, 2023 7:56 am

10 10 2 wrote: ↑Sun Apr 23, 2023 11:24 pm Hypothetical time. Been thinking about this the last week or so. Let's say North Carolina parts ways with Breschi. Who are the top candidates for that job? I've got a few people in mind but was wondering what others thought.

Mentioned this in another thread but it's more appropriate here.

Petro
Feifs
Seremet
Haus
Galloway
Polley
Moran
Kirwan
Wellner
Georgalas
Mitchell

It's a big enough job that they'd probably be able to at least bring an unexpected big name in to interview. Shay? Tambroni? Perhaps of note, Matt Madalon's brother played at Carolina. Never wise to bet against an Ivy coach leaving for another big job.

For the level of program/history that UNC has you need to hone in on a few things:
- Who are the best recruiters in the country currently
- Who has the network to attract the best Assistant Coaches (player developement, recruiting etc)
- Who would be a great CEO, run a clean program, attract the best players and be able to garner alumni support and engagement

Really?
-You don't need to be the best recruiter at UNC, it's UNC
-Most any asst. coach--and many HC's-- would leave their current position to be an assistant there
-Again, anyone with HC experience should be able to handle everything/anything needed, save Dave Klarmann

You definitely have to be a great recruiter, even at UNC, to get great talent. See Dave Klarmann and John Haus.

Seems to me that recruiting is not just about salesmanship, which seemed to be the implication.

First of all, it begins with identification of the prospects most likely to develop into difference making players in the key roles needed. Sure, some guys are obvious to everyone, but beyond those few, the correct emphasis on who to prioritize matters a ton. Get that consistently better than other coaches and it should mean more wins. That often means better projecting the maturation and character of players, their willingness to play roles that leverage their specific attributes rather than their HS roles as probably best athlete on their team. One is building a team, not just selling highly sought after recruits.

Second, it would be correct that the "product" does matter a lot in the 'sale' to a recruit with lots of attractive options. Absolutely the various attributes of the school influence the attractiveness to the recruit...but the key there for the recruiter is to recognize which attributes will mean the most to the specific recruit...that requires great listening (to a HS kid!) while also shaping the recruit's commitment to the culture the coach is building. "Fit" is key.

Indeed, third, it's the program culture that may be the most important, salient feature to be "sold". It needs to be authentic.

And that includes selection and management of not only the right players, but also the right assistants and the right staff. Just because the school itself would be attractive for most assistants doesn't guarantee the right selection, management, and development of that handful of individuals, to build that desired culture.

So, I agree that while UNC has fabulous positive attributes to many high potential recruits, that fact is not remotely sufficient to achieving the level of success consistently that posters are saying UNC falls short on. It's super hard to achieve, so I'm less critical perhaps of Breschi than others, but I'm particularly disagreeing with those who think any jamoke with HC experience can step in and do better.

In fact, I think many might well do much worse. They'll still get some desirable recruits, but will that actually result in materially different W's? And will it come with other baggage that eventually handcuffs?

But when a change does work, ala what we've seen at UVA (when the "culture" there seemed broken toward the end of Starsia's great career), it requires a HC who has a very clear concept of the new culture to be built, that 'fits' well with the history and is attractive to the kinds of recruits to be sought.

I will say one that many here will probably balk at Brecht at Rutgers. His best teams we loaded with transfers and his recruiting has been subpar compared to his conference rivals. He has underperformed in terms of staff and retention. Rutgers has invested a lot of money into the facilities there and will be looking to build a lacrosse-only facility he will have to start sowing an ability to maintain a high level in both playing, coaching, and recruiting. The cupboard may not be bear at Rutgers but there are certainly slim pickings right now