ggait wrote: ↑Fri Jun 26, 2020 1:17 pm
So the forecasts are starting to come out.
Sam Wang/Princeton (who totally biffed 2016) doesn't do a win probability. Has Joe at 356 median EC votes.
Economist has Joe at 88% in the EC and 98% for the pop vote. 343 median EC votes.
JHK Forecast has Joe at 85%. 343 median EC votes
PluralVote has Joe at 74%. 335 median EC votes.
538 (the best from 2016) does not have their forecast out yet.
To rehash 2016, 538 had it 79/21 on 6/26/2016, and 71/29 on 2016 Election day. 29% is not that unlikely -- chance of getting a six on one roll of one die is 17%.
Looking back on 538's model in 2016, the striking thing was how variable/dynamic the race was. Trump was 34% early June, 20% late June, 50% end of July, 12% mid-August, 45% late September, 12% mid-October, 35% on November 5.
TBD if 2020 will be a much more stable race or not.
ggait wrote: ↑Fri Jun 26, 2020 1:17 pm
So the forecasts are starting to come out.
Sam Wang/Princeton (who totally biffed 2016) doesn't do a win probability. Has Joe at 356 median EC votes.
Economist has Joe at 88% in the EC and 98% for the pop vote. 343 median EC votes.
JHK Forecast has Joe at 85%. 343 median EC votes
PluralVote has Joe at 74%. 335 median EC votes.
538 (the best from 2016) does not have their forecast out yet.
To rehash 2016, 538 had it 79/21 on 6/26/2016, and 71/29 on 2016 Election day. 29% is not that unlikely -- chance of getting a six on one roll of one die is 17%.
Looking back on 538's model in 2016, the striking thing was how variable/dynamic the race was. Trump was 34% early June, 20% late June, 50% end of July, 12% mid-August, 45% late September, 12% mid-October, 35% on November 5.
TBD if 2020 will be a much more stable race or not.
ggait wrote: ↑Fri Jun 26, 2020 1:17 pm
So the forecasts are starting to come out.
Sam Wang/Princeton (who totally biffed 2016) doesn't do a win probability. Has Joe at 356 median EC votes.
Economist has Joe at 88% in the EC and 98% for the pop vote. 343 median EC votes.
JHK Forecast has Joe at 85%. 343 median EC votes
PluralVote has Joe at 74%. 335 median EC votes.
538 (the best from 2016) does not have their forecast out yet.
To rehash 2016, 538 had it 79/21 on 6/26/2016, and 71/29 on 2016 Election day. 29% is not that unlikely -- chance of getting a six on one roll of one die is 17%.
Looking back on 538's model in 2016, the striking thing was how variable/dynamic the race was. Trump was 34% early June, 20% late June, 50% end of July, 12% mid-August, 45% late September, 12% mid-October, 35% on November 5.
TBD if 2020 will be a much more stable race or not.
ggait wrote: ↑Fri Jun 26, 2020 1:17 pm
So the forecasts are starting to come out.
Sam Wang/Princeton (who totally biffed 2016) doesn't do a win probability. Has Joe at 356 median EC votes.
Economist has Joe at 88% in the EC and 98% for the pop vote. 343 median EC votes.
JHK Forecast has Joe at 85%. 343 median EC votes
PluralVote has Joe at 74%. 335 median EC votes.
538 (the best from 2016) does not have their forecast out yet.
To rehash 2016, 538 had it 79/21 on 6/26/2016, and 71/29 on 2016 Election day. 29% is not that unlikely -- chance of getting a six on one roll of one die is 17%.
Looking back on 538's model in 2016, the striking thing was how variable/dynamic the race was. Trump was 34% early June, 20% late June, 50% end of July, 12% mid-August, 45% late September, 12% mid-October, 35% on November 5.
TBD if 2020 will be a much more stable race or not.
TL/DR: Sleepy/Creepy increasing his lead slightly.
Sam Wang/Princeton has Joe up to 375 median EC votes.
Economist has Joe at 90% in the EC and 98% for the pop vote. 346 median EC votes.
JHK Forecast has Joe at 88%. 360 median EC votes.
PluralVote has Joe at 77%. 344 median EC votes.
What's yeezy polling at?
these polls will change dramatically after the first donald/yeezy debate.
How does wgdsr know kanye? Also, does wg mean west gennY?
hmmmm.... good pull. thanks for reminding me, i gotta get an avatar up. gotta find one that's less than 24kb evidently, wasn't successful the 1st time i had tried.
go cats.
Farfromgeneva wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 6:18 pmA. I too would gladly pay for a copy
B. Any chance you could explain how to digitize tapes? I have a number of Dave Matthews, Rusted Root, Phish and later in life dead tapes that I simply won't toss but don't know what to do with.
LOL that reminds me of my sister spending days and days one summer converting my dad's LPs to cassettes for him.
Depending on the quality of tapes you might want to go with a different setup and find a stereo with an aux out to your computer's aux in. Then use a sound recording app and use a file format that's not as lossy as MP3. Also depending on what your time is worth you may want to take it to a local digitizer and pay them to do it.
Thanks. I'm sure if I used the google machine I'd have found something, but it falls off the to do list every day of my life. Will look into what I'd get charged, there's a few worth it at least, some not so much on a quality perspective. Have a Dylan and the Dead show from Foxboro from 1987 that just straight up sucks.
If only my kids were a little older and I could put them to real work...
I have looked at both, and frozen in indecision (not the band). The services I have found are stupid expensive, the DIY seems to have a lot of different ways to accomplish it, and i have never been able to tell which is the best.
Say what you will about Kanye, but the man has some real good ideas.
Speaking to Forbes magazine in an interview published Wednesday, the musician said he was “taking the red hat off, with this interview,” and starting his own party for 2020, “the Birthday Party.”
If President Trump weren’t already the GOP candidate, West told the magazine, he would run as a Republican, adding, “I will run as an independent if Trump is there.”
Asked why his political party will be called the Birthday Party, he explained, “Because when we win, it’s everybody’s birthday.”
Farfromgeneva wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 6:18 pmA. I too would gladly pay for a copy
B. Any chance you could explain how to digitize tapes? I have a number of Dave Matthews, Rusted Root, Phish and later in life dead tapes that I simply won't toss but don't know what to do with.
LOL that reminds me of my sister spending days and days one summer converting my dad's LPs to cassettes for him.
Depending on the quality of tapes you might want to go with a different setup and find a stereo with an aux out to your computer's aux in. Then use a sound recording app and use a file format that's not as lossy as MP3. Also depending on what your time is worth you may want to take it to a local digitizer and pay them to do it.
Thanks. I'm sure if I used the google machine I'd have found something, but it falls off the to do list every day of my life. Will look into what I'd get charged, there's a few worth it at least, some not so much on a quality perspective. Have a Dylan and the Dead show from Foxboro from 1987 that just straight up sucks.
If only my kids were a little older and I could put them to real work...
I have looked at both, and frozen in indecision (not the band). The services I have found are stupid expensive, the DIY seems to have a lot of different ways to accomplish it, and i have never been able to tell which is the best.
Try this service. They have a 50% off sale and run it often. I have a box of 10 video tapes that I am sending in tomorrow to be converted. It is going to cost me $8.00 a tape + shipping. Easy and convenient. This is my second time doing it. Good service.
Sarah is a total fraud, just fyi. Not a Republican, she played one to get a paycheck. Now the mumu is off, she's back to eating twinkies 24-7 and engaging in almost purely liberal policy making.
Re: 2020 Elections - Enough Divisiveness Already
Posted: Fri Jul 10, 2020 5:00 pm
by CU77
She saw the light, in other words.
Like the Republican Voters Against Trump 2020, who are giving the Lincoln Project a run for its money in producing the best ads:
Re: 2020 Elections - Enough Divisiveness Already
Posted: Fri Jul 10, 2020 5:11 pm
by wgdsr
kramerica.inc wrote: ↑Fri Jul 10, 2020 1:09 pm
More on Kanye's vision:
Looking more and more like the most lucid candidate this year.
omg.
worse, i can't even debate that point.
what's up with the green party folks? libertarians? should i be looking at airline tickets?
Re: 2020 Elections - Enough Divisiveness Already
Posted: Fri Jul 10, 2020 5:14 pm
by a fan
Peter Brown wrote: ↑Fri Jul 10, 2020 4:55 pm
Sarah is a total fraud, just fyi. Not a Republican, she played one to get a paycheck. Now the mumu is off, she's back to eating twinkies 24-7 and engaging in almost purely liberal policy making.
You can't even tell us what Republican policies are, Pete. So why are you saying she's "not a Republican"?
