Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine
Posted: Tue Jul 19, 2022 7:39 am
Thank goodness he ain't Peter the Great.
Same Party, Different House
https://fanlax.com/forum/
No, we don’t. But we can see what he is doing.a fan wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 11:45 pmMore speculation masquerading as fact. We have no clue what Putin is thinking, Doc.DocBarrister wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 11:03 pmAs the article above reports, it is the current assessment of U.S. intelligence that this is likely going to be a very prolonged war.a fan wrote: ↑Fri Jul 15, 2022 3:43 pmOk....here's a few:MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 15, 2022 1:20 pm Fair skepticism, but you're not really engaging in the various probabilities by simply dismissing this "we have no idea" what anyone will do, much less what Putin will do.
-It wouldn't surprise me at all if what we're seeing now is the end goal for Putin.....a war that doesn't end.
-Putin could be waiting out the winter, and then put the screws to the geniuses who depend on him for energy.
-It could be he's slowly installing/locating "his guys" with Ukraine to establish a puppet Ukraine
-It could be that Putin is waiting to wipe out Ukraine's current leadership structure.
-Zelensky could have personal motives that we don't see
I really have no idea. The one thing I think is unlikely, is that this is as cut and dry and Doc and others think it is.
There is always the possibility of some unforeseen event ending this war sooner than later. But hoping for such unforeseen events amounts to wishful thinking.
Putin is in this war for the long haul. That is not my opinion alone … it is the growing consensus of not only U.S. intelligence, but other experts as well. The reasons behind this assessment are described well in this NY Times article.
Everything is going according to plan.
That’s the line from President Vladimir Putin. The war in Ukraine, in its fifth month and with no end in sight, may be grueling. But senior Kremlin officials keep repeating that Russia, gaining the upper hand in Ukraine’s east, will achieve all its goals.
That might seem hard to believe. After all, Russia has been forced to retreat from Kyiv, experienced several military reversals, faced sanctions on an unprecedented scale and been subjected to a chorus of international condemnation. To call such a litany of difficulties and outright failures a success may be to court the charge of propaganda, hypocrisy or even self-delusion.
But it’s what the Kremlin seems to believe. Over two decades I have closely followed Mr. Putin’s words, behavior and decisions, forming a comprehensive picture of the president’s calculations. Based on his public rhetoric and policy moves and informal discussions with insiders, I have been able to work out — as far as is possible — the contours of the Kremlin’s current thinking. What is very clear is that in late May, the Kremlin came to the firm conclusion that it is winning this conflict in the long run. And Mr. Putin, in contrast to the early chaotic months, now has a clear plan.
… Mr. Putin’s wager appears to be that the fundamental political shifts in Western countries will in time bring about a transformed, friendly West. Russia will then be able to return to all the security demands it set out in its December ultimatum to the United States and NATO. This may seem wishful to the point of impossible. But that doesn’t stop it from being what Mr. Putin expects to happen.
There is some good news. The very fact that the plan seems realistic to him should, in the short term, prevent any nuclear escalation. But the bad news is that sooner or later, Mr. Putin will face reality. It is in that moment, when his plans are stymied and his disappointment high, that he is likely to be most dangerous.
For the West avoid a catastrophic clash, it needs to truly understand what it’s really dealing with when it comes to Mr. Putin.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/18/opin ... nning.html
Putin’s war against Ukraine is probably the single most dangerous conflict since WWII.
President Biden is dealing with a counterpart in Moscow who is almost certainly to some degree delusional and irrational.
We must not appease … indeed, cannot appease … a tyrant like Putin.
Putin and Russia MUST LOSE THIS WAR.
President Biden is walking a tightrope, and falling off could easily mean WWIII.
The allies will need to be patient and continue supporting Ukraine.
DocBarrister
And yet you think they they know precisely what Putin wants.DocBarrister wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 1:20 amYou are simply wrong about that.a fan wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 11:45 pmMore speculation masquerading as fact. We have no clue what Putin is thinking, Doc.DocBarrister wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 11:03 pmAs the article above reports, it is the current assessment of U.S. intelligence that this is likely going to be a very prolonged war.a fan wrote: ↑Fri Jul 15, 2022 3:43 pmOk....here's a few:MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 15, 2022 1:20 pm Fair skepticism, but you're not really engaging in the various probabilities by simply dismissing this "we have no idea" what anyone will do, much less what Putin will do.
-It wouldn't surprise me at all if what we're seeing now is the end goal for Putin.....a war that doesn't end.
-Putin could be waiting out the winter, and then put the screws to the geniuses who depend on him for energy.
-It could be he's slowly installing/locating "his guys" with Ukraine to establish a puppet Ukraine
-It could be that Putin is waiting to wipe out Ukraine's current leadership structure.
-Zelensky could have personal motives that we don't see
I really have no idea. The one thing I think is unlikely, is that this is as cut and dry and Doc and others think it is.
There is always the possibility of some unforeseen event ending this war sooner than later. But hoping for such unforeseen events amounts to wishful thinking.
Putin is in this war for the long haul. That is not my opinion alone … it is the growing consensus of not only U.S. intelligence, but other experts as well. The reasons behind this assessment are described well in this NY Times article.
Everything is going according to plan.
That’s the line from President Vladimir Putin. The war in Ukraine, in its fifth month and with no end in sight, may be grueling. But senior Kremlin officials keep repeating that Russia, gaining the upper hand in Ukraine’s east, will achieve all its goals.
That might seem hard to believe. After all, Russia has been forced to retreat from Kyiv, experienced several military reversals, faced sanctions on an unprecedented scale and been subjected to a chorus of international condemnation. To call such a litany of difficulties and outright failures a success may be to court the charge of propaganda, hypocrisy or even self-delusion.
But it’s what the Kremlin seems to believe. Over two decades I have closely followed Mr. Putin’s words, behavior and decisions, forming a comprehensive picture of the president’s calculations. Based on his public rhetoric and policy moves and informal discussions with insiders, I have been able to work out — as far as is possible — the contours of the Kremlin’s current thinking. What is very clear is that in late May, the Kremlin came to the firm conclusion that it is winning this conflict in the long run. And Mr. Putin, in contrast to the early chaotic months, now has a clear plan.
… Mr. Putin’s wager appears to be that the fundamental political shifts in Western countries will in time bring about a transformed, friendly West. Russia will then be able to return to all the security demands it set out in its December ultimatum to the United States and NATO. This may seem wishful to the point of impossible. But that doesn’t stop it from being what Mr. Putin expects to happen.
There is some good news. The very fact that the plan seems realistic to him should, in the short term, prevent any nuclear escalation. But the bad news is that sooner or later, Mr. Putin will face reality. It is in that moment, when his plans are stymied and his disappointment high, that he is likely to be most dangerous.
For the West avoid a catastrophic clash, it needs to truly understand what it’s really dealing with when it comes to Mr. Putin.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/18/opin ... nning.html
Putin’s war against Ukraine is probably the single most dangerous conflict since WWII.
President Biden is dealing with a counterpart in Moscow who is almost certainly to some degree delusional and irrational.
We must not appease … indeed, cannot appease … a tyrant like Putin.
Putin and Russia MUST LOSE THIS WAR.
President Biden is walking a tightrope, and falling off could easily mean WWIII.
The allies will need to be patient and continue supporting Ukraine.
DocBarrister
U.S. intelligence correctly predicted that Putin would invade. The Ukrainians didn’t think he would. More than a few European governments were skeptical.
The U.S. intelligence services haven’t gotten everything right (they certainly overestimated Russia’s military capability).
A lot of Russian people, especially younger, were fully on board with "rapprochement" with the west...but they're fleeing this Russia. It'll require a very different leadership and political situation in Russia for them to return.old salt wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 10:38 am ...neither is total defeat or driving Putin from power a realistic aspiration or expectation.
It might happen but we can't count on it. Also, the aftermath could pose other dangers.
Deterrence & containment are the way forward, as we are doing in Ukraine.
Even when Putin passes from the scene, the paranoia, resentment & sense of grievance of the Russian people will persist.
The collapse of the USSR did not produce the national sense of guilt felt by the German & Japanese peoples after their military defeat.
The West must reach a rapprochement with the Russian people or risk driving them into the embrace of China.
Old Salt gets why I'm asking the question....
The "best & the brightest" may possess the means to leave Russia, but they are a small minority.MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 10:55 amA lot of Russian people, especially younger, were fully on board with "rapprochement" with the west...but they're fleeing this Russia. It'll require a very different leadership and political situation in Russia for them to return.old salt wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 10:38 am ...neither is total defeat or driving Putin from power a realistic aspiration or expectation.
It might happen but we can't count on it. Also, the aftermath could pose other dangers.
Deterrence & containment are the way forward, as we are doing in Ukraine.
Even when Putin passes from the scene, the paranoia, resentment & sense of grievance of the Russian people will persist.
The collapse of the USSR did not produce the national sense of guilt felt by the German & Japanese peoples after their military defeat.
The West must reach a rapprochement with the Russian people or risk driving them into the embrace of China.
“The Russian people still feel betrayed by the breakup of the Soviet Union & carry a sense of grievance similar to the Germans following the Treaty of Versailles.”old salt wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 11:02 amThe "best & the brightest" may possess the means to leave Russia, but they are a small minority.MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 10:55 amA lot of Russian people, especially younger, were fully on board with "rapprochement" with the west...but they're fleeing this Russia. It'll require a very different leadership and political situation in Russia for them to return.old salt wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 10:38 am ...neither is total defeat or driving Putin from power a realistic aspiration or expectation.
It might happen but we can't count on it. Also, the aftermath could pose other dangers.
Deterrence & containment are the way forward, as we are doing in Ukraine.
Even when Putin passes from the scene, the paranoia, resentment & sense of grievance of the Russian people will persist.
The collapse of the USSR did not produce the national sense of guilt felt by the German & Japanese peoples after their military defeat.
The West must reach a rapprochement with the Russian people or risk driving them into the embrace of China.
The Russian people still feel betrayed by the breakup of the Soviet Union & carry a sense of grievance similar to the Germans following WW-I & the harsh terms of the Treaty of Versailles. Putin is appealing to that sense of grievance, just as you-know-who did in Germany.
You think the average American knows that Reagan's policies marked the dissolution of the middle class? Union busting, and the removal of multinational corporations as taxpayers at both the State and Federal level?PizzaSnake wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 11:20 am The American people still feel betrayed by the violation of the social contract following Reagan Revolution & carry a sense of grievance similar to the Germans following the Treaty of Versailles.
PizzaSnake wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 11:20 am This discussion board is a good example of the failure of civility and rational discourse. Opinions masquerade as certainty, and faith as fact.
He may be deposed, but he's also shrewd enough to eliminate those threats proactively. So, he may hang on, but diminished. And over time, if our sanctions are sustained, that diminishment will grow, hampering the very real ongoing threat.a fan wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 10:48 amAnd yet you think they they know precisely what Putin wants.DocBarrister wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 1:20 amYou are simply wrong about that.a fan wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 11:45 pmMore speculation masquerading as fact. We have no clue what Putin is thinking, Doc.DocBarrister wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 11:03 pmAs the article above reports, it is the current assessment of U.S. intelligence that this is likely going to be a very prolonged war.a fan wrote: ↑Fri Jul 15, 2022 3:43 pmOk....here's a few:MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 15, 2022 1:20 pm Fair skepticism, but you're not really engaging in the various probabilities by simply dismissing this "we have no idea" what anyone will do, much less what Putin will do.
-It wouldn't surprise me at all if what we're seeing now is the end goal for Putin.....a war that doesn't end.
-Putin could be waiting out the winter, and then put the screws to the geniuses who depend on him for energy.
-It could be he's slowly installing/locating "his guys" with Ukraine to establish a puppet Ukraine
-It could be that Putin is waiting to wipe out Ukraine's current leadership structure.
-Zelensky could have personal motives that we don't see
I really have no idea. The one thing I think is unlikely, is that this is as cut and dry and Doc and others think it is.
There is always the possibility of some unforeseen event ending this war sooner than later. But hoping for such unforeseen events amounts to wishful thinking.
Putin is in this war for the long haul. That is not my opinion alone … it is the growing consensus of not only U.S. intelligence, but other experts as well. The reasons behind this assessment are described well in this NY Times article.
Everything is going according to plan.
That’s the line from President Vladimir Putin. The war in Ukraine, in its fifth month and with no end in sight, may be grueling. But senior Kremlin officials keep repeating that Russia, gaining the upper hand in Ukraine’s east, will achieve all its goals.
That might seem hard to believe. After all, Russia has been forced to retreat from Kyiv, experienced several military reversals, faced sanctions on an unprecedented scale and been subjected to a chorus of international condemnation. To call such a litany of difficulties and outright failures a success may be to court the charge of propaganda, hypocrisy or even self-delusion.
But it’s what the Kremlin seems to believe. Over two decades I have closely followed Mr. Putin’s words, behavior and decisions, forming a comprehensive picture of the president’s calculations. Based on his public rhetoric and policy moves and informal discussions with insiders, I have been able to work out — as far as is possible — the contours of the Kremlin’s current thinking. What is very clear is that in late May, the Kremlin came to the firm conclusion that it is winning this conflict in the long run. And Mr. Putin, in contrast to the early chaotic months, now has a clear plan.
… Mr. Putin’s wager appears to be that the fundamental political shifts in Western countries will in time bring about a transformed, friendly West. Russia will then be able to return to all the security demands it set out in its December ultimatum to the United States and NATO. This may seem wishful to the point of impossible. But that doesn’t stop it from being what Mr. Putin expects to happen.
There is some good news. The very fact that the plan seems realistic to him should, in the short term, prevent any nuclear escalation. But the bad news is that sooner or later, Mr. Putin will face reality. It is in that moment, when his plans are stymied and his disappointment high, that he is likely to be most dangerous.
For the West avoid a catastrophic clash, it needs to truly understand what it’s really dealing with when it comes to Mr. Putin.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/18/opin ... nning.html
Putin’s war against Ukraine is probably the single most dangerous conflict since WWII.
President Biden is dealing with a counterpart in Moscow who is almost certainly to some degree delusional and irrational.
We must not appease … indeed, cannot appease … a tyrant like Putin.
Putin and Russia MUST LOSE THIS WAR.
President Biden is walking a tightrope, and falling off could easily mean WWIII.
The allies will need to be patient and continue supporting Ukraine.
DocBarrister
U.S. intelligence correctly predicted that Putin would invade. The Ukrainians didn’t think he would. More than a few European governments were skeptical.
The U.S. intelligence services haven’t gotten everything right (they certainly overestimated Russia’s military capability).
Good luck with that.
Question: what do you think will happen to Putin if he Ukrainian forces push him out of Russia, Doc? What do you think will happen to Putin if he "loses"?
I don't think that was his point...the underlying zeitgeist is resentment and grievance, how that gets channeled is the question...'who to blame?'a fan wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 11:36 amYou think the average American knows that Reagan's policies marked the dissolution of the middle class? Union busting, and the removal of multinational corporations as taxpayers at both the State and Federal level?PizzaSnake wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 11:20 am The American people still feel betrayed by the violation of the social contract following Reagan Revolution & carry a sense of grievance similar to the Germans following the Treaty of Versailles.
I sure don't. If you ask the average American, I'd wager they'd tell you that Reagan cut spending by 20% or more over his reign, and "got government out of the way".
I quite agree that's what the authoritarian is doing with his propaganda...I'm just saying that all that can change, with time, under different leadership. It'll take real progress and generational turnover, but it's entirely possible.old salt wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 11:02 amThe "best & the brightest" may possess the means to leave Russia, but they are a small minority.MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 10:55 amA lot of Russian people, especially younger, were fully on board with "rapprochement" with the west...but they're fleeing this Russia. It'll require a very different leadership and political situation in Russia for them to return.old salt wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 10:38 am ...neither is total defeat or driving Putin from power a realistic aspiration or expectation.
It might happen but we can't count on it. Also, the aftermath could pose other dangers.
Deterrence & containment are the way forward, as we are doing in Ukraine.
Even when Putin passes from the scene, the paranoia, resentment & sense of grievance of the Russian people will persist.
The collapse of the USSR did not produce the national sense of guilt felt by the German & Japanese peoples after their military defeat.
The West must reach a rapprochement with the Russian people or risk driving them into the embrace of China.
The Russian people still feel betrayed by the breakup of the Soviet Union & carry a sense of grievance similar to the Germans following WW-I & the harsh terms of the Treaty of Versailles. Putin is appealing to that sense of grievance, just as you-know-who did in Germany.
Not a chance. If Putin can't let Ukraine push Russian forces out. He's a dead man if he does.MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 11:47 am He may be deposed, but he's also shrewd enough to eliminate those threats proactively. So, he may hang on, but diminished.
Sanctions? What sanctions? We're still buying Russian cr*p here in the US. And everyone in the EU and UK are still trading with him. There are no meaningful sanctions.....and THAT is why Zelensky and Biden are left twisting in the wind. Want to be angry? Be angry at every Western country that's trading with Putin.MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 11:47 am And over time, if our sanctions are sustained, that diminishment will grow, hampering the very real ongoing threat.
Since when do you believe what a politician says in speeches, MDLax?MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 11:47 am I don't understand what you think is difficult to understand re Putin...he's been incredibly clear, repeatedly, about what he "wants", speech after speech over years and years of such, as well as contemporaneously.
If he's backed into a corner, Ukraine takes back land, and starts attacking Russian targets? I sure as sh*t wouldn't be against it.MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 11:47 am The big, hairy question, IMO, is whether he orders his military to go to nukes...is he that insane?
I. don't. know. No clue.MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 11:54 amSo, tell us what you think he will do...given that you don't think we can know what Putin thinks...
I do think my question set at the end, above, is big and hairy...
EDIT...looks like you just answered...
a fan wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 11:54 amNot a chance. If Putin can't let Ukraine push Russian forces out. He's a dead man if he does.MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 11:47 am He may be deposed, but he's also shrewd enough to eliminate those threats proactively. So, he may hang on, but diminished.
Sanctions? What sanctions? We're still buying Russian cr*p here in the US. And everyone in the EU and UK are still trading with him. There are no meaningful sanctions.....and THAT is why Zelensky and Biden are left twisting in the wind. Want to be angry? Be angry at every Western country that's trading with Putin.MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 11:47 am And over time, if our sanctions are sustained, that diminishment will grow, hampering the very real ongoing threat.
which "cr*p"? Energy? Yes, but dropping and will continue to drop. Some other raw materials? Certainly no western country cares about their finished goods.
Sanctions on chips and technology generally are what will most degrade Russian effectiveness,
Since when do you believe what a politician says in speeches, MDLax?MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 11:47 am I don't understand what you think is difficult to understand re Putin...he's been incredibly clear, repeatedly, about what he "wants", speech after speech over years and years of such, as well as contemporaneously.
I don't see Putin as a "politician" in that sense...He's an autocrat, a despot, a propagandist...what he says on the international stage absolutely can't be trusted. But what he says in his off the cuff, rambling speeches to smaller groups, definitely reveal his worldview. And that worldview has been quite consistent...we just didn't want to believe he was that delusional.
If he's backed into a corner, Ukraine takes back land, and starts attacking Russian targets? I sure as sh*t wouldn't be against it.MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 11:47 am The big, hairy question, IMO, is whether he orders his military to go to nukes...is he that insane?
well, I certainly hope that you would be against it. Again, I'm not advocating that Ukraine bomb Moscow...I'm saying push them out of Ukraine and until they leave, their staging bases, supply depots on the border are fair targets. But as soon as they leave, cease fire.
The main problem here, MDLax....is that the world isn't aligned against Putin. THAT is the problem here. And that is why Putin can do as he chooses.
I certainly agree that's a huge problem. But that's also why I think it's far better to get Ukraine onto the offensive, retaking their land, destroying any exposed Russian military assets along the way.
His economy is a mess, but nowhere near where it would be if the West stopped trading with him.
Certainly the more that the West weans itself off of Russian energy and raw materials, the better...but that's going to take awhile.