Peter Brown wrote: ↑Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:49 pm
Ramp up production of the Abbott 5-minute test kit, get other factories to make it
OMG, Pete we agree on something. I have been saying this for at least days. Are you stealing ideas from me? At least subconsciously?
This is really going to hurt me on the “Peter Brown unbalanced scale.”
There’s hope for you yet. Or for me. Not sure which.
Great, everyone agrees. I doubt the timeline can be made as aggressive as envisioned (end of April). So what are you going to do with guys like RRR? Live free or die, I ain't taken no vaccine - you can't stick my finger types?
If you are serious, I am very scared for my neighbors and this country.
You really have NO problem forcing a fellow human to take something ? I think you should be able to move a mile in 12 minutes, or less. Or else you go to lethargy camp. Can you? exactly
ggait wrote: ↑Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:57 pm
Pete -- I think almost everyone agrees with all that. I think that is exactly what will happen.
We can go back to work when we are able to widely deploy new/additional tools.
But until we have those tools, you are stuck with keeping up the full SD.
So it seems like the main point of differentiation is whether you hate on Trump or not?
I agree that SD needs to go through end of April. But we should be testing now to get people to start thinking of May 1 as 'back to work', which relaly will be May 4th.
But get that test kit ramped up production-wise. Set up a CDC website which shows locations of test sites. Clearly explain what people need, to go back to work. This is not hard.
And yes, most of the nonsense here is how much can I hate Trump... I don't sense anyone who defends Trump is necessarily a supporter of his, but merely show up here to balance the scale which leans hard to the hysteria side about EVERY issue, let alone Covid-19.
Never mind that even the fairly optimistic UW group predictions assume full SD through the end of May. Not April.
And if you look at the UW projections, you see significant differences in the states that were hit hard early (NY/NJ, MI, LA) which will be diving toward zero in early May versus the "late" states like yours and mine (FL and SC, and see death rate peaks projected in 15/17 days) where the governors were quite late with something approximating the full SD and will see their numbers taper off in late May and early June.
So your idea that in FL we reduce SD on May 1 is not that likely to lead to a good outcome. Maybe mid-May or later.
You need about two disease cycles to break the pandemic in any locale. Roughly four weeks. And FL just got started (although South Florida might be ready sooner).
I would point out that the UW studies, like most studies, never factor in dynamic change (ie: every action causes a reaction), so their models have had produced forecasted static outcomes. All of their original models were wildly overblown. I'd be cautious reading too much into their modeling.
… and the modelers call out those assumptions, which right wingers never read, and thereby make claims for the models that the modelers themselves never made.
Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus
Posted: Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:55 pm
by Matnum PI
6ftstick wrote: ↑Wed Apr 08, 2020 12:52 pm
What? We've destroyed 15 trillion in wealth, put 10-15 million people out of work... And you're being cute.
Not cute. I'm being frank. All the economic implications are in the name of saving human lives. And you seem to be ignoring this.
Peter Brown wrote: ↑Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:49 pm
Ramp up production of the Abbott 5-minute test kit, get other factories to make it
OMG, Pete we agree on something. I have been saying this for at least days. Are you stealing ideas from me? At least subconsciously?
This is really going to hurt me on the “Peter Brown unbalanced scale.”
There’s hope for you yet. Or for me. Not sure which.
Great, everyone agrees. I doubt the timeline can be made as aggressive as envisioned (end of April). So what are you going to do with guys like RRR? Live free or die, I ain't taken no vaccine - you can't stick my finger types?
If you are serious, I am very scared for my neighbors and this country.
You really have NO problem forcing a fellow human to take something ? I think you should be able to move a mile in 12 minutes, or less. Or else you go to lethargy camp. Can you? exactly
… you assume wrong. Just asking the question. Society feels it has a need to know, and folks like you feel you owe society nothing, even if you are carrying a dangerous disease.
Peter Brown wrote: ↑Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:49 pm
Ramp up production of the Abbott 5-minute test kit, get other factories to make it
OMG, Pete we agree on something. I have been saying this for at least days. Are you stealing ideas from me? At least subconsciously?
This is really going to hurt me on the “Peter Brown unbalanced scale.”
There’s hope for you yet. Or for me. Not sure which.
Great, everyone agrees. I doubt the timeline can be made as aggressive as envisioned (end of April). So what are you going to do with guys like RRR? Live free or die, I ain't taken no vaccine - you can't stick my finger types?
If you are serious, I am very scared for my neighbors and this country.
You really have NO problem forcing a fellow human to take something ? I think you should be able to move a mile in 12 minutes, or less. Or else you go to lethargy camp. Can you? exactly
… you assume wrong. Just asking the question. Society feels it has a need to know, and folks like you feel you owe society nothing, even if you are carrying a dangerous disease.
I, nor do most of the US citizens, feel society needs to know . HIPPA is a joke........write?
V-19 is dangerous? honestly, you really, really worried about DYING jhu72?
love how "society" suddenly cares about maNpa.......the elderly. Meanwhile, they have neatly tucked "them" away into "ASSisted living" or whatever name they want to call them....nursing homes. to the tune of 1.5 million "facility" residents.
Who is bringing maNpa kettle back into the home? exactly spare me the faux concern
Peter Brown wrote: ↑Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:49 pm
Ramp up production of the Abbott 5-minute test kit, get other factories to make it
OMG, Pete we agree on something. I have been saying this for at least days. Are you stealing ideas from me? At least subconsciously?
This is really going to hurt me on the “Peter Brown unbalanced scale.”
There’s hope for you yet. Or for me. Not sure which.
Great, everyone agrees. I doubt the timeline can be made as aggressive as envisioned (end of April). So what are you going to do with guys like RRR? Live free or die, I ain't taken no vaccine - you can't stick my finger types?
If you are serious, I am very scared for my neighbors and this country.
You really have NO problem forcing a fellow human to take something ? I think you should be able to move a mile in 12 minutes, or less. Or else you go to lethargy camp. Can you? exactly
… you assume wrong. Just asking the question. Society feels it has a need to know, and folks like you feel you owe society nothing, even if you are carrying a dangerous disease.
I, nor do most of the US citizens, feel society needs to know . HIPPA is a joke........write?
V-19 is dangerous? honestly, you really, really worried about DYING jhu72?
love how "society" suddenly cares about maNpa.......the elderly. Meanwhile, they have neatly tucked "them" away into "ASSisted living" or whatever name they want to call them....nursing homes. to the tune of 1.5 million "facility" residents.
Who is bringing maNpa kettle back into the home? exactly spare me the faux concern
ggait wrote: ↑Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:57 pm
Pete -- I think almost everyone agrees with all that. I think that is exactly what will happen.
We can go back to work when we are able to widely deploy new/additional tools.
But until we have those tools, you are stuck with keeping up the full SD.
So it seems like the main point of differentiation is whether you hate on Trump or not?
I agree that SD needs to go through end of April. But we should be testing now to get people to start thinking of May 1 as 'back to work', which relaly will be May 4th.
But get that test kit ramped up production-wise. Set up a CDC website which shows locations of test sites. Clearly explain what people need, to go back to work. This is not hard.
And yes, most of the nonsense here is how much can I hate Trump... I don't sense anyone who defends Trump is necessarily a supporter of his, but merely show up here to balance the scale which leans hard to the hysteria side about EVERY issue, let alone Covid-19.
Never mind that even the fairly optimistic UW group predictions assume full SD through the end of May. Not April.
And if you look at the UW projections, you see significant differences in the states that were hit hard early (NY/NJ, MI, LA) which will be diving toward zero in early May versus the "late" states like yours and mine (FL and SC, and see death rate peaks projected in 15/17 days) where the governors were quite late with something approximating the full SD and will see their numbers taper off in late May and early June.
So your idea that in FL we reduce SD on May 1 is not that likely to lead to a good outcome. Maybe mid-May or later.
You need about two disease cycles to break the pandemic in any locale. Roughly four weeks. And FL just got started (although South Florida might be ready sooner).
I would point out that the UW studies, like most studies, never factor in dynamic change (ie: every action causes a reaction), so their models have had produced forecasted static outcomes. All of their original models were wildly overblown. I'd be cautious reading too much into their modeling.
Wrong. Last weekend they spent a considerable time updating what went into their model. And they do update the data set daily as well, so there is a dynamic action here.
Called it weeks ago. The game is, after all the social distancing .....when it works, you'd have a bunch of people saying "see, I TOLD YOU this virus was no big deal".
I'm left wondering how many of these Americans wake up from successful open heart surgery and say "see? I'm fine. Obviously I didn't need the surgery in the first place".
Homer shares this brilliance.....
Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus
Posted: Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:39 pm
by Typical Lax Dad
a fan wrote: ↑Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:28 pm
Called it weeks ago. The game is, after all the social distancing .....when it works, you'd have a bunch of people saying "see, I TOLD YOU this virus was no big deal".
I'm left wondering how many of these Americans wake up from successful open heart surgery and say "see? I'm fine. Obviously I didn't need the surgery in the first place".
Homer shares this brilliance.....
Yep. I posted last week that once Trump starting talking about 100k to 200k deaths I figured the number would be lower. That is how he rolls. Create a mess, tell people it will be worse than the reality and when it comes in under he will say hey, look at what I did.....I closed the Chinese border.
a fan wrote: ↑Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:28 pm
Called it weeks ago. The game is, after all the social distancing .....when it works, you'd have a bunch of people saying "see, I TOLD YOU this virus was no big deal".
I'm left wondering how many of these Americans wake up from successful open heart surgery and say "see? I'm fine. Obviously I didn't need the surgery in the first place".
Homer shares this brilliance.....
Yep. I posted last week that once Trump starting talking about 100k to 200k deaths I figured the number would be lower. That is how he rolls. Create a mess, tell people it will be worse than the reality and when it comes in under he will say hey, look at what I did.....I closed the Chinese border.
And in addition, there is a concerted movement in the Fox News media universe and cohorts to spin the new "they are over counting deaths" except that they are using the long standard procedures (like was used for H1N1) to factor in the uncounted cases. They have always counted a death where someone was known to have H1N1 as an H1N1 death, and estimated from death rate departures from normal numbers the missed cases.
Fox News is suggesting coronavirus deaths are significantly inflated. Data and logic suggest otherwise.
ggait wrote: ↑Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:43 pm
Pete, Six, RRR -- I'm not personally interested in the partisan ax grinding. I didn't need Covid to make me dislike Trump.
So again, what should we be doing differently? Is it 6 feet, or 27'? Masks or no masks?
Keep doing the full SD until 5/31 but just not trash Trump?
SD lite a la Sweden? At this point, I care about my neighbors. Save Tibet......later.
Fully re-open the country today? On the 15th
What does "Back to work!!" mean? For Moi? Contracts signed, but the start date was March 1st. What does it mean for you?
RRR -- 2.8 million people die in the U.S. every year. So adding an incremental 2.2 million seems like a material variance, no? How is the US Census going? You know, the one required by law? American Liberty League is a thing of fiction
partisan? Like I have been saying, this place would be more enjoyable if one could put up a bio. TAATS is the pragmatic way to say, "follow the money", not what the partisans say, but what they do. You really think I am a CONservative? That I like the creep who is currently POTUSA? Get real.
Doing differntly ? We should allow EVERYONE to return to work. Not just the folks delivering your cubano sandwich.
Deaths is certainly one way to look at the damage from this virus...any are bad. If it's in your circle, it blows.
My concern, away from my circle - we are unable to keep our healthcare system from collapsing.
2 million deaths means tens of millions sick....the healthcare system, along with the economy, would collapse.
We should allow everyone back to work, at the appropriate time.
a fan wrote: ↑Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:28 pm
Called it weeks ago. The game is, after all the social distancing .....when it works, you'd have a bunch of people saying "see, I TOLD YOU this virus was no big deal".
I'm left wondering how many of these Americans wake up from successful open heart surgery and say "see? I'm fine. Obviously I didn't need the surgery in the first place".
Homer shares this brilliance.....
Yep. I posted last week that once Trump starting talking about 100k to 200k deaths I figured the number would be lower. That is how he rolls. Create a mess, tell people it will be worse than the reality and when it comes in under he will say hey, look at what I did.....I closed the Chinese border.
And in addition, there is a concerted movement in the Fox News media universe and cohorts to spin the new "they are over counting deaths" except that they are using the long standard procedures (like was used for H1N1) to factor in the uncounted cases. They have always counted a death where someone was known to have H1N1 as an H1N1 death, and estimated from death rate departures from normal numbers the missed cases.
Fox News is suggesting coronavirus deaths are significantly inflated. Data and logic suggest otherwise.
What follows is a VERY GOOD discussion of how they are wrong and in fact the death toll is undercounted...
I saw a forum member posit that yesterday. Figured that idea was circling in tripe land. Hospitals and coroners are maxed out and they are not counting many people that weren’t diagnosed. A buddy told me two bodies were pulled out of his complex recently. Doesn’t know how long they were dead. Old couple.
Peter Brown wrote: ↑Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:49 pm
Ramp up production of the Abbott 5-minute test kit, get other factories to make it
OMG, Pete we agree on something. I have been saying this for at least days. Are you stealing ideas from me? At least subconsciously?
This is really going to hurt me on the “Peter Brown unbalanced scale.”
There’s hope for you yet. Or for me. Not sure which.
Great, everyone agrees. I doubt the timeline can be made as aggressive as envisioned (end of April). So what are you going to do with guys like RRR? Live free or die, I ain't taken no vaccine - you can't stick my finger types?
If you are serious, I am very scared for my neighbors and this country.
You really have NO problem forcing a fellow human to take something ? I think you should be able to move a mile in 12 minutes, or less. Or else you go to lethargy camp. Can you? exactly
… you assume wrong. Just asking the question. Society feels it has a need to know, and folks like you feel you owe society nothing, even if you are carrying a dangerous disease.
I, nor do most of the US citizens, feel society needs to know . HIPPA is a joke........write?
V-19 is dangerous? honestly, you really, really worried about DYING jhu72?
love how "society" suddenly cares about maNpa.......the elderly. Meanwhile, they have neatly tucked "them" away into "ASSisted living" or whatever name they want to call them....nursing homes. to the tune of 1.5 million "facility" residents.
Who is bringing maNpa kettle back into the home? exactly spare me the faux concern
Who? Me.
Why? Because we could.
Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus
Posted: Wed Apr 08, 2020 4:01 pm
by jhu72
a fan wrote: ↑Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:28 pm
Called it weeks ago. The game is, after all the social distancing .....when it works, you'd have a bunch of people saying "see, I TOLD YOU this virus was no big deal".
I'm left wondering how many of these Americans wake up from successful open heart surgery and say "see? I'm fine. Obviously I didn't need the surgery in the first place".
a fan wrote: ↑Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:28 pm
Called it weeks ago. The game is, after all the social distancing .....when it works, you'd have a bunch of people saying "see, I TOLD YOU this virus was no big deal".
I'm left wondering how many of these Americans wake up from successful open heart surgery and say "see? I'm fine. Obviously I didn't need the surgery in the first place".
Homer shares this brilliance.....
Yep. I posted last week that once Trump starting talking about 100k to 200k deaths I figured the number would be lower. That is how he rolls. Create a mess, tell people it will be worse than the reality and when it comes in under he will say hey, look at what I did.....I closed the Chinese border.
And in addition, there is a concerted movement in the Fox News media universe and cohorts to spin the new "they are over counting deaths" except that they are using the long standard procedures (like was used for H1N1) to factor in the uncounted cases. They have always counted a death where someone was known to have H1N1 as an H1N1 death, and estimated from death rate departures from normal numbers the missed cases.
Fox News is suggesting coronavirus deaths are significantly inflated. Data and logic suggest otherwise.
What follows is a VERY GOOD discussion of how they are wrong and in fact the death toll is undercounted...
I saw a forum member posit that yesterday. Figured that idea was circling in tripe land. Hospitals and coroners are maxed out and they are not counting many people that weren’t diagnosed. A buddy told me two bodies were pulled out of his complex recently. Doesn’t know how long they were dead. Old couple.
Everyone with half a brain knows we are undercounting, always do in healthcare emergencies. Those that don't report it, don't believe in doctors, don't have the money, etc. Going to find lots of dead bodies hidden away when things ease up. Ask the Italians.
honestly, you really, really worried about DYING jhu72?