Re: 2020 Elections - Trump Fatigue Pandemic
Posted: Sun Jun 28, 2020 6:31 am
The Lincoln's drop another one on DOPUS - this time for the latest Putin bounty scandal
Brutal.
Brutal.
Same Party, Different House
https://fanlax.com/forum/
seacoaster wrote: ↑Sun Jun 28, 2020 6:51 am The VP sweepstakes:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/27/opin ... e=Homepage
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The Debt clip is great for showing the senior voters what r's think about them.
Come on no generation of Americans were great. Neither was the country. You've told us that repeatedly. The civil war was a waste of time. transferring 15 trillion from the productive to the Great Society was just more waste. America sucks.CU88 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 29, 2020 8:28 amThe Debt clip is great for showing the senior voters what r's think about them.
Donald Trump said, "we can't let the cure be worse than the disease."
By that he meant, the Greatest Generation weren't worth the sacrifice. That's a hell of a way to pay them back for liberating the world from fascism.
6ftstick wrote: ↑Mon Jun 29, 2020 9:02 amCome on no generation of Americans were great. Neither was the country. You've told us that repeatedly. The civil war was a waste of time. transferring 15 trillion from the productive to the Great Society was just more waste. America sucks.CU88 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 29, 2020 8:28 amThe Debt clip is great for showing the senior voters what r's think about them.
Donald Trump said, "we can't let the cure be worse than the disease."
By that he meant, the Greatest Generation weren't worth the sacrifice. That's a hell of a way to pay them back for liberating the world from fascism.
It will be high level entertainment. And you rightly point out, that from where we sit right now:wgdsr wrote: ↑Sat Jun 27, 2020 12:46 pmwe're not influencing elections here on fanlax, but polls are getting a lot of play lately everywhere. a novice, i woulda thought democrats would downplay all polls after 2016. actually would have thought that would be the playbook, along with banging the drum for the youngins to get out.CU88 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 27, 2020 12:31 pm Frontloading has a stunning EC map for 2020
https://frontloading.blogspot.com/2020/ ... 62620.html
Base numbers:
Strong plus Lean to Biden = 248 EC votes
Strong plus Leans to IMPOTUS o d = 125 EC votes
Joe then only needs to win PA with its 20 EC votes and NH with its 4 EC votes to cross the 270 EC threshold.
joe's basement strategy has been the right one so far, but eventually he'll have to campaign and debate. trump's warts are consistently out there for all to see. joe has never been in a presidential election as the target, his warts past and present on display.
as always, battleground states and who handles them best are gonna win the day.
what an election!!!
Trump is toast. Even some of the states like GA that are called for Trump have Biden leading in polls. Good luck overcoming that in Nov. The pandemic has done enough to the economy and D talking points to squash any hope for Trump's campaign.HooDat wrote: ↑Mon Jun 29, 2020 11:36 amIt will be high level entertainment. And you rightly point out, that from where we sit right now:wgdsr wrote: ↑Sat Jun 27, 2020 12:46 pmwe're not influencing elections here on fanlax, but polls are getting a lot of play lately everywhere. a novice, i woulda thought democrats would downplay all polls after 2016. actually would have thought that would be the playbook, along with banging the drum for the youngins to get out.CU88 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 27, 2020 12:31 pm Frontloading has a stunning EC map for 2020
https://frontloading.blogspot.com/2020/ ... 62620.html
Base numbers:
Strong plus Lean to Biden = 248 EC votes
Strong plus Leans to IMPOTUS o d = 125 EC votes
Joe then only needs to win PA with its 20 EC votes and NH with its 4 EC votes to cross the 270 EC threshold.
joe's basement strategy has been the right one so far, but eventually he'll have to campaign and debate. trump's warts are consistently out there for all to see. joe has never been in a presidential election as the target, his warts past and present on display.
as always, battleground states and who handles them best are gonna win the day.
what an election!!!
Biden basically has no where to go but down. Very little upside for him between now and the election, with lots of room for Biden style gaffs and even more digging into his personal history and negative ads that target his health and mental state. Look for friendly third-parties to seek to call off the debates. Expect Biden to make very few public appearances and to participate in nothing that is unscripted.
Trump on the other hand has a lot more potential for upside movement than downward risk. His warts are pretty well vetted at this point. Can he behave long enough for people to lean his way? I am not sure its a winning bet.
As a matter of long term strategy, I am not sure this is an election you want to win. It smells a bit like the 77 election won by Carter. The winner was doomed to one term. Perhaps instead that was Trump's "victory" and we just saw the one-term "cleansing" administration. Who ever wins, inherits a dump-storm of unrest.
A Trump victory will have the usual suspects losing their ever living minds, to the extent that I really worry about people's safety and mental health. The extreme end of the party will insist that (again) the DNC did not go far enough left. That is what the never-Trumpers are counting on, in the belief that the Dems will put up a far-far left candidate in 2024, that will lose to their moderate. I am not so sure the Globalist/Corporatist wing of the DNC will give up control though and if they lose, I think they end up with a decent candidate in 2024 to run against Haley.
If Biden wins, the Dems better hope the Republicans hold the Senate, because if they don't there will be no one to blame for not enacting legislation like the New Green Deal. Another question the Dems need to ask themselves is after Biden wins --- then what? Who is really running the country at that point? Does anyone really think that Biden has the mental capacity to run the country? He didn't have the brains to be president when his mind was clear - which is clearly is not anymore.
The "Any Competent Adult - 2020" bumper-stickers were great, the problem is the DNC couldn't even manage that. So once again, because of the failure of the two parties, the people are faced with a lesser of two evils election.
President Dukakis just called to remind us of his 17 point lead in July 1988.Trump is toast. Even some of the states like GA that are called for Trump have Biden leading in polls. Good luck overcoming that in Nov. The pandemic has done enough to the economy and D talking points to squash any hope for Trump's campaign.
Peter Brown wrote: ↑Mon Jun 29, 2020 9:07 am6ftstick wrote: ↑Mon Jun 29, 2020 9:02 amCome on no generation of Americans were great. Neither was the country. You've told us that repeatedly. The civil war was a waste of time. transferring 15 trillion from the productive to the Great Society was just more waste. America sucks.CU88 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 29, 2020 8:28 amThe Debt clip is great for showing the senior voters what r's think about them.
Donald Trump said, "we can't let the cure be worse than the disease."
By that he meant, the Greatest Generation weren't worth the sacrifice. That's a hell of a way to pay them back for liberating the world from fascism.
The Democratic Party's Day of Mourning is this Saturday, otherwise known as The Fourth of July.
They will always have May Day.
How many combat vets are still alive?CU88 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 29, 2020 8:28 amThe Debt clip is great for showing the senior voters what r's think about them.
Donald Trump said, "we can't let the cure be worse than the disease."
By that he meant, the Greatest Generation weren't worth the sacrifice. That's a hell of a way to pay them back for liberating the world from fascism.
HooDat wrote: ↑Mon Jun 29, 2020 11:36 amIt will be high level entertainment.You got that right. Get some popcorn and pull up a chair. And you rightly point out, that from where we sit right now:wgdsr wrote: ↑Sat Jun 27, 2020 12:46 pmwe're not influencing elections here on fanlax, but polls are getting a lot of play lately everywhere. a novice, i woulda thought democrats would downplay all polls after 2016. actually would have thought that would be the playbook, along with banging the drum for the youngins to get out.CU88 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 27, 2020 12:31 pm Frontloading has a stunning EC map for 2020
https://frontloading.blogspot.com/2020/ ... 62620.html
Base numbers:
Strong plus Lean to Biden = 248 EC votes
Strong plus Leans to IMPOTUS o d = 125 EC votes
Joe then only needs to win PA with its 20 EC votes and NH with its 4 EC votes to cross the 270 EC threshold.
joe's basement strategy has been the right one so far, but eventually he'll have to campaign and debate. trump's warts are consistently out there for all to see. joe has never been in a presidential election as the target, his warts past and present on display.
as always, battleground states and who handles them best are gonna win the day.
what an election!!!
Biden basically has no where to go but down. Perhaps, but not a sure thing. I do expect things to get closer before we get to what will be a VERY wild ride in October.Very little upside for him between now and the election, with lots of room for Biden style gaffs agreeand even more digging into his personal history Maybe, but Joe has been in public life for 50 yearsand negative ads that target his health and mental state. Trump has tried that, and it hasn't been very effective so far.
Actually, I think Trump's health is more of an issue than Biden's. You have the ramp and the trouble drinking water. The slurring of words. Also, Trump has failed to disclose what happened to him in November. Why did he go to the hospital? What tests were performed? What were the results? Why is he not telling us? Trump has also gained a lot of weight since he took office. He looks unhealthy.
Joe, on the other hand, looks pretty fit for a guy his age.
Both have issues with mental health or mental acuity, though not identical. Joe has slowed down, but he never was articulate and has always stuttered. The right wing does mash ups that make him look bad, but if you watch a full interview, he does OK.
Trump's issues are more a fundamental lack of focus or interest in the critically important aspects of the job and his proclivity to make decisions based on how they will impact him politically or personally.
Look for friendly third-parties to seek to call off the debates. I would bet my bottom dollar there will be debates. If Trump continues to be behind, he will insist on them. The public has grown accustomed to debates and will demand them. Joe is a traditionalist and he will follow tradition.Expect Biden to make very few public appearances and to participate in nothing that is unscripted. That would be a good strategy for him. If the pandemic doesn't let up, that would give him good cover. But I suspect he is going to have to get out their on the campaign trail at some point to some degree.
Trump on the other hand has a lot more potential for upside movement than downward risk. Yes, but only because he is substantially behind at this point.His warts are pretty well vetted at this point. We'll see if there are any October surprises. His warts may be known, but that isn't the same thing as their being accepted or immaterial to the election. The cumulative weight of his warts will draw votes away from him.Can he behave long enough for people to lean his way? Trump can't and won't change his behavior.I am not sure its a winning bet.
As a matter of long term strategy, I am not sure this is an election you want to win. It smells a bit like the 77 election won by Carter. The winner was doomed to one term. I disagree about Carter. As a general proposition, I don't think you can predict election results four years out so I don't agree the 1976 winner was a sure loser in 1980. Yes, the Dems were going to win in 1976 even though Ford was a decent man, if not a superstar politician. But the Nixon stink was so bad, the Rs just weren't going to be able to hold the presidency. Carter was easily the most decent, moral president of my lifetime. But he wasn't particularly good at the job. The micromanager label was pretty accurate. Plus he got bit by the economy and the Iran hostage situation. I voted for Anderson in 1980. Didn't think Carter was up to the job. Thought Reagan was a dumb actor from Hollywood who was all hat and no cattle. Perhaps instead that was Trump's "victory" and we just saw the one-term "cleansing" administration. Again, don't think you can predict four years out. If so, tell me now who wins in 2024.Who ever wins, inherits a dump-storm of unrest.
A Trump victory will have the usual suspects losing their ever living minds,no doubt about that, mine included to the extent that I really worry about people's safety and mental health. The extreme end of the party will insist that (again) the DNC did not go far enough left. That is what the never-Trumpers are counting on, in the belief that the Dems will put up a far-far left candidate in 2024, that will lose to their moderate.Maybe, but it is too early to predict 2024. Lots of other plausible scenarios. The country swings right and left over time. We may be at the beginning of a leftward swing. I am not so sure the Globalist/Corporatist wing of the DNC will give up control though and if they lose, I think they end up with a decent candidate in 2024 to run against Haley. Not a Haley fan (even for an R). Think the Rs have much better talent in their stable. She was smart to quit when she did, but she still has some Trump stink on her. If Trump loses this year, the party is going to sprint away from him faster that Usain Bolt. She may get left in the dust. And she was a bit of a party girl while in NY. Not that there is anything wrong with that (in NY).
If Biden wins, the Dems better hope the Republicans hold the Senate, because if they don't there will be no one to blame for not enacting legislation like the New Green Deal. Disagree. Dems need the Senate. Moscow Mitch needs to be sent to the back bench. He's done enough damage to the country already. Among other things, Dems need the Senate for the Supreme Court as Ginsberg and probably Breyer will retire during the next four years. The rest of the justices probably will stay, but you never know. The Green New Deal won't be enacted, certainly in its current form. One of the things that gets underplayed with Joe is his likely ability to work with the Senate. They are his long-time colleagues, and many are his friends. He has very good relationships there and, I think, will be able to get a few votes here and there when he needs them. Another question the Dems need to ask themselves is after Biden wins --- then what? Who is really running the country at that point? Does anyone really think that Biden has the mental capacity to run the country? He didn't have the brains to be president when his mind was clear - which it clearly is not anymore. Come on. Now you are just spouting Trump pap. To turn that around, do you think Trump has the mental capacity to run the country?
The "Any Competent Adult - 2020" bumper-stickers were great, the problem is the DNC couldn't even manage that. Well, OK, that is the Trumpist perspective, but you know that isn't true.So once again, because of the failure of the two parties, the people are faced with a lesser of two evils election.
Trump has proven that he does not have the attention span, maturity or temperament to be President and yet here we are. With that said, I don't think he is mentally impaired.
Your cat would be just fine...the other kitty kat not so much.HooDat wrote: ↑Mon Jun 29, 2020 1:28 pmTrump has proven that he does not have the attention span, maturity or temperament to be President and yet here we are. With that said, I don't think he is mentally impaired.
as far as challenging whether in Biden the Dems put forward a candidate that is a "Competent Adult" - that is not a Trumpist perspective, because I am no Trumpist. I wouldn't trust Biden to babysit my cat. Truly, think about it. Would you go on vacation for a week and leave Biden ALONE in your home responsible for the care of YOUR cat? The thought makes me very uncomfortable - and yet he is most likely about to be the leader of the free world. But I guess if we have (barely) survived Trump as our president, we can survive almost anything.
by the way, I wouldn't trust Trump in my house for a week either, but for different reasons - with him I worry he would go through my wife's underwear drawer .....
You didn't mention mental impairment in your initial post, nor did I in my response. New point, which is fair. I agree that he doesn't seem to be impaired.HooDat wrote: ↑Mon Jun 29, 2020 1:28 pmTrump has proven that he does not have the attention span, maturity or temperament to be President and yet here we are. With that said, I don't think he is mentally impaired.
as far as challenging whether in Biden the Dems put forward a candidate that is a "Competent Adult" - that is not a Trumpist perspective, because I am no Trumpist. I wouldn't trust Biden to babysit my cat. Truly, think about it. Would you go on vacation for a week and leave Biden ALONE in your home responsible for the care of YOUR cat? The thought makes me very uncomfortable - and yet he is most likely about to be the leader of the free world. But I guess if we have (barely) survived Trump as our president, we can survive almost anything.
by the way, I wouldn't trust Trump in my house for a week either, but for different reasons - with him I worry he would go through my wife's underwear drawer .....
well cat's are pretty self-sufficient. It doesn't take much.....njbill wrote: ↑Mon Jun 29, 2020 1:45 pmThe cat sitting test. That's a new one on me.HooDat wrote: ↑Mon Jun 29, 2020 1:28 pmTrump has proven that he does not have the attention span, maturity or temperament to be President and yet here we are. With that said, I don't think he is mentally impaired.
as far as challenging whether in Biden the Dems put forward a candidate that is a "Competent Adult" - that is not a Trumpist perspective, because I am no Trumpist. I wouldn't trust Biden to babysit my cat. Truly, think about it. Would you go on vacation for a week and leave Biden ALONE in your home responsible for the care of YOUR cat? The thought makes me very uncomfortable - and yet he is most likely about to be the leader of the free world. But I guess if we have (barely) survived Trump as our president, we can survive almost anything.
by the way, I wouldn't trust Trump in my house for a week either, but for different reasons - with him I worry he would go through my wife's underwear drawer .....
Trump and the underwear drawer?
man, you guys are being pretty cute, nah , cavalier, playing with the USA's soul.......betting it all Biden.ggait wrote: ↑Mon Jun 29, 2020 12:23 pmPresident Dukakis just called to remind us of his 17 point lead in July 1988.Trump is toast. Even some of the states like GA that are called for Trump have Biden leading in polls. Good luck overcoming that in Nov. The pandemic has done enough to the economy and D talking points to squash any hope for Trump's campaign.
Agree that Trump can't go much lower even if he tried (and he is trying). He's pretty much shooting people on 5th Avenue and he's still at 40% approval. But after four years of this, he's never going to get popular either. High floor, low ceiling.
Biden doesn't much matter. It is a referendum on Trump. Any of Joe's faults are so much smaller than Trump's. If you think Joe is old, unhealthy, demented, corrupt etc., so you are going to pick young, healthy, intellectual, honest Trump instead? At this point, who is really undecided on how they view Trump?
In 2016, Trump was trailing 3-4 points in the national polls and wound up losing by 2.1 points. Spread for Bush/Gore was 0.5%.
In 2020, Trump has no chance of winning the PV (proven to be the best method of winning the EC). So he has to get to within 2, 3, maybe 4 points, in order to have a shot a pulling the EC inside straight a second time. Quants say that Biden has a 95% chance in the EC at +5% nationally, and 100% at +6% nationally.