6ftstick wrote: ↑Sat Apr 04, 2020 3:35 pm
Today according to the CDC
277,205 cases
6,593 deaths
.023% mortality
Thats excludes all Americans still untested that may have the disease. So .023 could be much less
At .023% mortality minimum 50 million Americans have to contract the disease to have 100,000 deaths from the virus.
3/22-3/25 cases doubled in 3 days
3/25-3/28 cases doubled in 3 days
3/28-4/2 cases doubled in 5 days
Number of cases today has to double 8 more times to get to 50 million cases.
You and everyone else missed that your math is wrong first and foremost. It's a 2.3% mortality rate from those numbers (6593 deaths / 277,205 cases * 100). 2018-2019 Flu is about 0.096% (34,157 deaths / 35,520,883 cases * 100)
If we had 50,000,000 cases we'd have 1.1 million deaths at a 2.3% or 0.023 death rate (50,000,000 cases * 0.023).
DocBarrister wrote: ↑Sat Apr 04, 2020 4:12 pm The Trump administration received its first formal notification of the outbreak of the coronavirus in China on Jan. 3. Within days, U.S. spy agencies were signaling the seriousness of the threat to Trump by including a warning about the coronavirus — the first of many — in the President’s Daily Brief.
And yet, it took 70 days from that initial notification for Trump to treat the coronavirus not as a distant threat or harmless flu strain well under control, but as a lethal force that had outflanked America’s defenses and was poised to kill tens of thousands of citizens. That more-than-two-month stretch now stands as critical time that was squandered.
Are you Dr. Fauci, trying to run for cover from your public comment on January 21? Is that the best thing you can find to still cast blame? Over here Doc....wake up.
I was among the first here to criticize Dr. Fauci. I am very confident that Dr. Fauci will come under heavy criticism when the full story of this pandemic comes out. He cared too much about keeping his position and his seat at Trump’s table rather than speaking the whole truth.
Doesn’t excuse Trump’s moral culpability for what amounts to negligent mass homicide.
6ftstick wrote: ↑Sat Apr 04, 2020 3:35 pm
Today according to the CDC
277,205 cases
6,593 deaths
.023% mortality
Thats excludes all Americans still untested that may have the disease. So .023 could be much less
The vast majority of those cases are new cases that have not yet run their course to possible death. The proper baseline for deaths is the number of cases 10 days or so back. So the .023% is almost certainly much too low.
For one thing, it's five times lower than the approximately 0.1% for ordinary flu.
CU, you are of course correct about the timing between identification and death, with ~40,000 cases 10 days ago...the rest are all within first 10 days of identification.
But that wasn't 6ft's most egregious error.
He thinks when dividing 6,593 by 277,205 and getting 0.023...that's means .O23%...oops...it means 2.3%....that's a good 20X of the seasonal flu.
Your 0.1% for seasonal flu is correct in an average year.
Of course, it's also likely that there's 2-3X the 277,000 cases actually in existence in the US, so when this all shakes out, we're going to look not unlike the rest of the world in fatality, albeit a differential if a health system collapses ala the challenge in Italy and Spain...and maybe here, let's hope not. We'll likely see higher fatality in less developed countries, but we won't have a very good data as they'll be over run.
6ftstick wrote: ↑Sat Apr 04, 2020 3:35 pm
Today according to the CDC
277,205 cases
6,593 deaths
.023% mortality
Thats excludes all Americans still untested that may have the disease. So .023 could be much less
At .023% mortality minimum 50 million Americans have to contract the disease to have 100,000 deaths from the virus.
3/22-3/25 cases doubled in 3 days
3/25-3/28 cases doubled in 3 days
3/28-4/2 cases doubled in 5 days
Number of cases today has to double 8 more times to get to 50 million cases.
You and everyone else missed that your math is wrong first and foremost. It's a 2.3% mortality rate from those numbers (6593 deaths / 277,205 cases * 100). 2018-2019 Flu is about 0.096% (34,157 deaths / 35,520,883 cases * 100)
If we had 50,000,000 cases we'd have 1.1 million deaths at a 2.3% or 0.023 death rate (50,000,000 cases * 0.023).
You beat me to it!
Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus
Posted: Sat Apr 04, 2020 4:26 pm
by CU77
I just assumed 6ft could do basic math … shoulda checked!
6ftstick wrote: ↑Sat Apr 04, 2020 3:35 pm
Today according to the CDC
277,205 cases
6,593 deaths
.023% mortality
Thats excludes all Americans still untested that may have the disease. So .023 could be much less
At .023% mortality minimum 50 million Americans have to contract the disease to have 100,000 deaths from the virus.
3/22-3/25 cases doubled in 3 days
3/25-3/28 cases doubled in 3 days
3/28-4/2 cases doubled in 5 days
Number of cases today has to double 8 more times to get to 50 million cases.
You and everyone else missed that your math is wrong first and foremost. It's a 2.3% mortality rate from those numbers (6593 deaths / 277,205 cases * 100). 2018-2019 Flu is about 0.096% (34,157 deaths / 35,520,883 cases * 100)
If we had 50,000,000 cases we'd have 1.1 million deaths at a 2.3% or 0.023 death rate (50,000,000 cases * 0.023).
6ftstick wrote: ↑Sat Apr 04, 2020 3:35 pm
Today according to the CDC
277,205 cases
6,593 deaths
.023% mortality
Thats excludes all Americans still untested that may have the disease. So .023 could be much less
At .023% mortality minimum 50 million Americans have to contract the disease to have 100,000 deaths from the virus.
3/22-3/25 cases doubled in 3 days
3/25-3/28 cases doubled in 3 days
3/28-4/2 cases doubled in 5 days
Number of cases today has to double 8 more times to get to 50 million cases.
You and everyone else missed that your math is wrong first and foremost. It's a 2.3% mortality rate from those numbers (6593 deaths / 277,205 cases * 100). 2018-2019 Flu is about 0.096% (34,157 deaths / 35,520,883 cases * 100)
If we had 50,000,000 cases we'd have 1.1 million deaths at a 2.3% or 0.023 death rate (50,000,000 cases * 0.023).
Wondered if that was extrapolating to the whole population or something bc it’s easy as the sun to see that 1% of 277,000 is 2,770 ergo 6,500 couldn’t possibly be 2/100 of 1.00%.
Eight Holdouts, Eight Republican Governors
Posted: Sat Apr 04, 2020 4:33 pm
by DocBarrister
There are still 8 governors refusing to issue statewide stay-in-place orders. All Republicans. They are following the Moron-in-Chief, a Republican, who still refuses to issue a nationwide stay-in-place order.
I have often called Republicans the Party of Stupid.
Hyperbole or vast understatement?
DocBarrister
Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus
Posted: Sat Apr 04, 2020 4:34 pm
by CU88
Trump on Feb. 10: “Looks like by April, you know, in theory, when it gets a little warmer, it miraculously goes away.”
Trump today: “There’s going to be a lot of death.”
Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus
Posted: Sat Apr 04, 2020 4:36 pm
by DocBarrister
CU88 wrote: ↑Sat Apr 04, 2020 4:34 pm
Trump on Feb. 10: “Looks like by April, you know, in theory, when it gets a little warmer, it miraculously goes away.”
Trump today: “There’s going to be a lot of death.”
DocBarrister wrote: ↑Sat Apr 04, 2020 4:33 pm
There are still 8 governors refusing to issue statewide stay-in-place orders. All Republicans. They are following the Moron-in-Chief, a Republican, who still refuses to issue a nationwide stay-in-place order.
I have often called Republicans the Party of Stupid.
Hyperbole or vast understatement?
DocBarrister
The CFO of the company my FIL is partner is and my wife works for us playing golf today. Total doughnut, slack jawed Auburn grad whos a glorified controller/accountant in over his head there except they dont have much F,P&A needs. Arrogant too and somehow they have even given him a little equity (less than 1%, small) but it’s guys like this where it’s hard to have much sympathy if he gets sick.
Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus
Posted: Sat Apr 04, 2020 4:40 pm
by Typical Lax Dad
CNN opinion piece:
I can’t believe China let us down. They are good guys:
You know what Chinese think of Americans? They think little of Americans....a Chinese billionaire that has plants here compares the American worker to a donkey. Believes we are spoiled so we have to be soothed...”A donkey likes to be rubbed in the direction it hair grows”....we don’t like to be made uncomfortable.... these are the people that Trump was supposed to trust. Send 7+ billion of supplies because Xi is a good guy. GMAFB
Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus
Posted: Sat Apr 04, 2020 4:41 pm
by Trinity
“There’s gonna be a lot of death. And we gotta get back to work. The news is fake. Obama gave me broken tests. Everyone snaps-to when I call. Nobody knew.”
Reader’s Digest condensed Trump monologue today. Waiting for the special guests, then the Pence adoration ceremony.
Re: All things CoronaVirus
Posted: Sat Apr 04, 2020 4:43 pm
by 6ftstick
DocBarrister wrote: ↑Wed Feb 26, 2020 1:43 pm
Even if the actual number of coronavirus infection cases is double the “official” count of around 80,000, the mortality rate would still be 1,000 times that of “ordinary” flu. That’s pretty frightening.
This epidemic can still be managed, but we’re definitely on the cusp of a global pandemic. If it truly becomes a pandemic, then we’re talking about many thousands of additional deaths and a potential global recession.
DocBarrister
So Doc here's your first post in the thread. February 26th, You don't sound like your hairs on fire. Pretty reasoned. Where were you in January and February screaming Trump was a stumbling idiot.
Were were the democrats and their media amplifier in three debates prior to this withoutt a mention of this disease.
NYs health commissioner had already advised all NewYorkers to come to the Chinese New Year parade to show they were WOKE and not racists.
The Mayor of New Orleans another Democrat had pushed attendance at Mardi Gras.
And Trump had already closed the borders declared a public health emergency and put the coronavirus task force together.