All Things Russia & Ukraine

[Brooklyn]

There's certainly a fair critique to be had on spending. And priorities.

Looks like we'll spend 10-15% of the amount of our annual defense budget on helping Ukraine defeat Russia. Given the global ramifications, IMO that's worthwhile. Note that it's just a few grains of sand compared to what we just spent domestically on COVID.

But that doesn't eliminate the very valid critique of why we can't seem to solve other issues, too. It's really not the $, it's the will...and the belief that it'll be ineffective, in some quarters...

Sub Saharan African countries have been at war with each other with far greater casualties and refugee crises. Yet, USA aid to these countries is considerably less. Their global ramifications are no less than those along Russia-Ukraine's border. Priorities, man. Priorities.

[old salt]

Our EU allies are terrified. They're not echoing our triumphalism. They're worried about surviving, not "winning".
They want a cease fire asap, so they can keep buying the Russian energy upon which their economies are still dependent.

SecDef can't promise a military victory when US forces are not involved.
He gave Putin the perfect talking point & justification for using a tac nuc.
He is creating false expectations among the US public.

Speak softly & wield a big stick, or better yet, give one to the Ukrainians.
No one can "win" without control of the airspace & the Black Sea.

This comes across as defeatist.

Our EU allies are not "terrified", though we all certainly should be very worried about Putin taking this nuclear when he's otherwise defeated. EU certainly. But as previously said, if he does, NATO should/will utterly destroy his conventional capacities and create that no fly zone. Don't escalate to respond with nuclear. The world, not just NATO, will rally in horror.

On energy, Poland is leading the way and everyone else in NATO is scrambling as well. But the entire region has decided that they MUST decouple from energy from Russia...the only reversal of that would be Putin's overthrow.

Defeatist ? It's not our war, or NATO's. It's a civil war between former Soviet states. Unresolved issues from the breakup of the USSR. We have chosen to support Ukraine with financial & military aid. That's it.

Watch the evening news from Germany, France & the UK. They're -- asking their "experts" w.t.f is Sec Austin proposing ? You don't hear any of their retired Generals calling to fill the skies over Ukraine with F-35's. The EUroburghers don't want to humiliate Russia & devastate their military. They want the killing & destruction to end asap so they can return to the status quo & resume trading with Russia & buying their energy. It will be years before they don't need Russian energy.

Russia is still holding & slowly gaining territory. They still control the sea & the skies. They are free to lob missiles into Ukraine at their liesure. They are far from defeated.
So you'd trade a tac nuc strike for a no fly zone ? That's just nuts. Once a tac nuc flies, if we escalate conventionally, more will follow.

[old salt]

What is the value in overtly stating our intent (via our Ukrainian proxy fighters) to destroy the ability of Russia to threaten their neighbors ?
Are our NATO allies saying that too ? Don't threaten it unless you intend to do it & have the means to deliver on the threat.

How is Ukraine going to keep their ports open ? Will we be providing them a Navy ?

NATO, the EU, South Korea, Japan, and the United States are going to slowly degrade Russia’s military by denying what Russia needs for spare parts and maintenance.

It’s a deviously simple and devastatingly effective long-term strategy.

Virtually every military in the world, including that of the United States, struggles with spare parts and maintenance of their armed forces. Russia is practically an exemplar of the problem. The NATO and U.S. allies are simply going after the soft underside of the Russian military.

DocBarrister

That's indeed a major element, and might well be the most important part. Electronic components and technology will also remain severely restricted.

https://www.reuters.com/world/shrinking ... 022-04-26/
Shrinking U.S. Stinger missile supply faces re-stocking challenges

WASHINGTON, April 26 (Reuters) - Shoulder-fired Stinger missiles are in hot demand in Ukraine where they have successfully stopped Russian assaults from the air, but U.S. supplies have shrunk and producing more of the anti-aircraft weapons faces significant hurdles.

Challenges include complications related to ramping up production, reluctance by the United States to redirect valuable manufacturing capacity to decades-old technology, and fears among defense companies that they would be stuck with unwanted arms when the Ukraine war winds down, according to interviews with U.S. officials and defense firms.

While U.S. troops themselves have limited use for the current supply of Stingers -- a lightweight, self-contained weapon that can be deployed quickly to defend against helicopters, airplanes, drones and even cruise missiles -- the U.S. needs to maintain its supply on hand while it develops the next generation of a "man-portable air defense system."

"Right before Ukraine hit, we were going to divest ourselves of Stingers," a congressional source said. Still, Pentagon officials are concerned about a "dwindling" surplus, according to a Pentagon official and the congressional source.

Ukrainian troops have shot down at least six targets during the conflict using Lithuanian-provided Stingers, according to an April 6 Facebook post by Arvydas Anusauskas, Lithuania's defense minister, including helicopters, planes, drones and a cruise missile. Reuters could not verify the claim.

Since February, the U.S. has shipped 1,400 Stingers to Ukraine, according to an administration official. But sourcing more will be difficult.

The Stinger production line was closed in December 2020, said Pentagon spokesperson Jessica Maxwell. Since then, Raytheon Technologies (RTX.N) won a contract in July 2021 to manufacture more Stingers, but mainly for international governments, according to the U.S. Army. The sole Stinger facility, in Arizona, only produces at a low rate.

The Pentagon has not ordered new Stingers for about 18 years, but has ordered parts or made other efforts to increase its supply. For example, the Army is in the middle of a "service life extension plan" for some of its Stingers that were to become obsolete in 2023 and is extending what the military calls their "useful life" until 2030.

The Pentagon, which has thrown together weekly meetings to discuss surging weapons demand from Eastern Europe, met with a group of eight defense-contractor chief executives in mid-April to discuss the supply of weapons to Ukraine, including the Stinger. read more

Two sources familiar with the meeting said Raytheon CEO Greg Hayes noted that it can require six to 12 months to restart a munitions production line.

Hayes told analysts on a post-earnings conference call on Tuesday that "we have a very limited stock of material for Stinger production."

"We've been working with the Department of Defense for the last couple of weeks," Hayes said. "Some of the components are no longer commercially available, and so we're going to have to go out and redesign some of the electronics in the missile of the seeker head. That's going to take us a little bit of time."

Hayes said he could ramp up production in 2022, but larger replenishments will be in 2023 or 2024.

At the meeting of CEOs earlier this month, industry executives voiced reservations about increasing weapons production. One chief executive said that when the Ukraine war winds down, they do not want to be stuck with warehouses full of unsellable inventory without a guaranteed buyer, three people familiar with the discussion said.

Congress also wants more Stingers, or at least something that can do the same job.

The chairman of the House of Representatives Armed Services Committee, Representative Adam Smith, wrote Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin last week and pointed out an "apparent absence of a Department of Defense plan to meet short-range air defense replenishment requirements for not only our U.S. stocks of Stinger systems, but those of other contributing allies and partners."

A Pentagon official who oversees weapons acquisitions for the Army, Doug Bush, told Congress on March 31 the Defense Department was putting together a plan to increase Stinger production and planned to inform Congress imminently.

But as of late last week, a second congressional source who spoke on condition of anonymity said there has been no information about the plan.

Senator Richard Blumenthal, a member of the Senate's Committee on Armed Services, asked Austin earlier in April at a Senate budget hearing about using the Defense Production Act (DPA) to restore depleted supplies of Stingers and Javelin anti-tank missiles.

But using that law, which forces industry to put resources into an immediate effort to make a product needed for national security purposes, is premature, Pentagon spokesperson Maxwell said.

In the longer term, the Army is looking for a replacement for the Stinger that will go into production in 2027.

[old salt]

Our EU allies are terrified. They're not echoing our triumphalism. They're worried about surviving, not "winning".
They want a cease fire asap, so they can keep buying the Russian energy upon which their economies are still dependent.

SecDef can't promise a military victory when US forces are not involved.
He gave Putin the perfect talking point & justification for using a tac nuc.
He is creating false expectations among the US public.

Speak softly & wield a big stick, or better yet, give one to the Ukrainians.
No one can "win" without control of the airspace & the Black Sea.

This comes across as defeatist.

Our EU allies are not "terrified", though we all certainly should be very worried about Putin taking this nuclear when he's otherwise defeated. EU certainly. But as previously said, if he does, NATO should/will utterly destroy his conventional capacities and create that no fly zone. Don't escalate to respond with nuclear. The world, not just NATO, will rally in horror.

On energy, Poland is leading the way and everyone else in NATO is scrambling as well. But the entire region has decided that they MUST decouple from energy from Russia...the only reversal of that would be Putin's overthrow.

It is Russia … not Europe, NATO, the United States, South Korea, or Japan … that is terrified.

We see Russia’s fear in its tactical reset in Ukraine, Putin’s increasingly unhinged rhetoric, and escalating brutality against Ukrainian civilians.

Supporters of fascist strongmen, and we know there are some here, are watching the destruction of one of their idols.

This war in Ukraine might continue for a very, very long time. God forbid if Putin and Russia become desperate enough to employ weapons of mass destruction or even nukes. If they do that, it will be the end of Putin, and the end of Russia.

Unless Putin resorts to mass civilian genocides that would force even President Zalensky to surrender, Putin and Russia will lose this war.

What comes next may be even more terrifying … a Russian failed state that is no longer in complete control of its nuclear and military forces. Russia is already one massive criminal organization.

What happens if the organization and order vanish from a defeated Russia?

DocBarrister

No matter how you look at, it ain't pretty.

So let's push Putin over the brink & see how he responds. Great plan. What could go wrong ?

The EUros won't follow you keyboard warrior US cowboys down this trail into a box canyon.

What's your plan to depose Putin ? How long will it take ? Will the fight be contained within Ukraine ? Will it require US military intervention ?

Anybody remember our pivot to Asia ?

[Typical Lax Dad]

Our EU allies are terrified. They're not echoing our triumphalism. They're worried about surviving, not "winning".
They want a cease fire asap, so they can keep buying the Russian energy upon which their economies are still dependent.

SecDef can't promise a military victory when US forces are not involved.
He gave Putin the perfect talking point & justification for using a tac nuc.
He is creating false expectations among the US public.

Speak softly & wield a big stick, or better yet, give one to the Ukrainians.
No one can "win" without control of the airspace & the Black Sea.

This comes across as defeatist.

Our EU allies are not "terrified", though we all certainly should be very worried about Putin taking this nuclear when he's otherwise defeated. EU certainly. But as previously said, if he does, NATO should/will utterly destroy his conventional capacities and create that no fly zone. Don't escalate to respond with nuclear. The world, not just NATO, will rally in horror.

On energy, Poland is leading the way and everyone else in NATO is scrambling as well. But the entire region has decided that they MUST decouple from energy from Russia...the only reversal of that would be Putin's overthrow.

It is Russia … not Europe, NATO, the United States, South Korea, or Japan … that is terrified.

We see Russia’s fear in its tactical reset in Ukraine, Putin’s increasingly unhinged rhetoric, and escalating brutality against Ukrainian civilians.

Supporters of fascist strongmen, and we know there are some here, are watching the destruction of one of their idols.

This war in Ukraine might continue for a very, very long time. God forbid if Putin and Russia become desperate enough to employ weapons of mass destruction or even nukes. If they do that, it will be the end of Putin, and the end of Russia.

Unless Putin resorts to mass civilian genocides that would force even President Zalensky to surrender, Putin and Russia will lose this war.

What comes next may be even more terrifying … a Russian failed state that is no longer in complete control of its nuclear and military forces. Russia is already one massive criminal organization.

What happens if the organization and order vanish from a defeated Russia?

DocBarrister

No matter how you look at, it ain't pretty.

So let's push Putin over the brink & see how he responds. Great plan. What could go wrong ?

The EUros won't follow you keyboard warrior US cowboys down this trail into a box canyon.

What's your plan to depose Putin ? How long will it take ? Will the fight be contained within Ukraine ? Will it require US military intervention ?

I say Ukraine should surrender before Putin decides to go after the next border country.

[old salt]

Here's what David Sanger of the NYT writes about Sec Austin's speech :
Behind Austin's call for a weakened Russia, Hints of a shift.
The immediate impetus for Mr Austin's carefully orchestrated declaration... several administration officials said, was to set up Pres Zelensky with what one senior State Dept official called "the strongest possible hand" for what they expect will be some kind of cease-fire negotiations in coming months. But over the long term, Mr Austin's description of America's strategic goal is bound to reinforce Putin's oft-stated belief that the war is really about the West's desire to choke off Russian power & destabilize his government.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Here's what David Sanger of the NYT writes about Sec Austin's speech :
Behind Austin's call for a weakened Russia, Hints of a shift.
The immediate impetus for Mr Austin's carefully orchestrated declaration... several administration officials said, was to set up Pres Zelensky with what one senior State Dept official called "the strongest possible hand" for what they expect will be some kind of cease-fire negotiations in coming months. But over the long term, Mr Austin's description of America's strategic goal is bound to reinforce Putin's oft-stated belief that the war is really about the West's desire to choke off Russian power & destabilize his government.

[DocBarrister]

Our EU allies are terrified. They're not echoing our triumphalism. They're worried about surviving, not "winning".
They want a cease fire asap, so they can keep buying the Russian energy upon which their economies are still dependent.

SecDef can't promise a military victory when US forces are not involved.
He gave Putin the perfect talking point & justification for using a tac nuc.
He is creating false expectations among the US public.

Speak softly & wield a big stick, or better yet, give one to the Ukrainians.
No one can "win" without control of the airspace & the Black Sea.

This comes across as defeatist.

Our EU allies are not "terrified", though we all certainly should be very worried about Putin taking this nuclear when he's otherwise defeated. EU certainly. But as previously said, if he does, NATO should/will utterly destroy his conventional capacities and create that no fly zone. Don't escalate to respond with nuclear. The world, not just NATO, will rally in horror.

On energy, Poland is leading the way and everyone else in NATO is scrambling as well. But the entire region has decided that they MUST decouple from energy from Russia...the only reversal of that would be Putin's overthrow.

Defeatist ? It's not our war, or NATO's. It's a civil war between former Soviet states. Unresolved issues from the breakup of the USSR. We have chosen to support Ukraine with financial & military aid. That's it.

Watch the evening news from Germany, France & the UK. They're -- asking their "experts" w.t.f is Sec Austin proposing ? You don't hear any of their retired Generals calling to fill the skies over Ukraine with F-35's. The EUroburghers don't want to humiliate Russia & devastate their military. They want the killing & destruction to end asap so they can return to the status quo & resume trading with Russia & buying their energy. It will be years before they don't need Russian energy.

Russia is still holding & slowly gaining territory. They still control the sea & the skies. They are free to lob missiles into Ukraine at their liesure. They are far from defeated.
So you'd trade a tac nuc strike for a no fly zone ? That's just nuts. Once a tac nuc flies, if we escalate conventionally, more will follow.

“It's a civil war between former Soviet states. Unresolved issues from the breakup of the USSR.”—old salt

You can’t be serious.

Anyone who does not understand that Russia has invaded a sovereign European nation, Ukraine, with its own unique culture, language, and history, has a really distorted perspective of what’s going on.

DocBarrister

[DocBarrister]

Our EU allies are terrified. They're not echoing our triumphalism. They're worried about surviving, not "winning".
They want a cease fire asap, so they can keep buying the Russian energy upon which their economies are still dependent.

SecDef can't promise a military victory when US forces are not involved.
He gave Putin the perfect talking point & justification for using a tac nuc.
He is creating false expectations among the US public.

Speak softly & wield a big stick, or better yet, give one to the Ukrainians.
No one can "win" without control of the airspace & the Black Sea.

This comes across as defeatist.

Our EU allies are not "terrified", though we all certainly should be very worried about Putin taking this nuclear when he's otherwise defeated. EU certainly. But as previously said, if he does, NATO should/will utterly destroy his conventional capacities and create that no fly zone. Don't escalate to respond with nuclear. The world, not just NATO, will rally in horror.

On energy, Poland is leading the way and everyone else in NATO is scrambling as well. But the entire region has decided that they MUST decouple from energy from Russia...the only reversal of that would be Putin's overthrow.

It is Russia … not Europe, NATO, the United States, South Korea, or Japan … that is terrified.

We see Russia’s fear in its tactical reset in Ukraine, Putin’s increasingly unhinged rhetoric, and escalating brutality against Ukrainian civilians.

Supporters of fascist strongmen, and we know there are some here, are watching the destruction of one of their idols.

This war in Ukraine might continue for a very, very long time. God forbid if Putin and Russia become desperate enough to employ weapons of mass destruction or even nukes. If they do that, it will be the end of Putin, and the end of Russia.

Unless Putin resorts to mass civilian genocides that would force even President Zalensky to surrender, Putin and Russia will lose this war.

What comes next may be even more terrifying … a Russian failed state that is no longer in complete control of its nuclear and military forces. Russia is already one massive criminal organization.

What happens if the organization and order vanish from a defeated Russia?

DocBarrister

No matter how you look at, it ain't pretty.

So let's push Putin over the brink & see how he responds. Great plan. What could go wrong ?

The EUros won't follow you keyboard warrior US cowboys down this trail into a box canyon.

What's your plan to depose Putin ? How long will it take ? Will the fight be contained within Ukraine ? Will it require US military intervention ?

Anybody remember our pivot to Asia ?

There’s no absolute need to depose Putin. We just need to leave the diminutive little fascist thug a markedly diminished leader of a neutered and impotent Russia.

DocBarrister

[old salt]

Our EU allies are terrified. They're not echoing our triumphalism. They're worried about surviving, not "winning".
They want a cease fire asap, so they can keep buying the Russian energy upon which their economies are still dependent.

SecDef can't promise a military victory when US forces are not involved.
He gave Putin the perfect talking point & justification for using a tac nuc.
He is creating false expectations among the US public.

Speak softly & wield a big stick, or better yet, give one to the Ukrainians.
No one can "win" without control of the airspace & the Black Sea.

This comes across as defeatist.

Our EU allies are not "terrified", though we all certainly should be very worried about Putin taking this nuclear when he's otherwise defeated. EU certainly. But as previously said, if he does, NATO should/will utterly destroy his conventional capacities and create that no fly zone. Don't escalate to respond with nuclear. The world, not just NATO, will rally in horror.

On energy, Poland is leading the way and everyone else in NATO is scrambling as well. But the entire region has decided that they MUST decouple from energy from Russia...the only reversal of that would be Putin's overthrow.

It is Russia … not Europe, NATO, the United States, South Korea, or Japan … that is terrified.

We see Russia’s fear in its tactical reset in Ukraine, Putin’s increasingly unhinged rhetoric, and escalating brutality against Ukrainian civilians.

Supporters of fascist strongmen, and we know there are some here, are watching the destruction of one of their idols.

This war in Ukraine might continue for a very, very long time. God forbid if Putin and Russia become desperate enough to employ weapons of mass destruction or even nukes. If they do that, it will be the end of Putin, and the end of Russia.

Unless Putin resorts to mass civilian genocides that would force even President Zalensky to surrender, Putin and Russia will lose this war.

What comes next may be even more terrifying … a Russian failed state that is no longer in complete control of its nuclear and military forces. Russia is already one massive criminal organization.

What happens if the organization and order vanish from a defeated Russia?

DocBarrister

No matter how you look at, it ain't pretty.

So let's push Putin over the brink & see how he responds. Great plan. What could go wrong ?

The EUros won't follow you keyboard warrior US cowboys down this trail into a box canyon.

What's your plan to depose Putin ? How long will it take ? Will the fight be contained within Ukraine ? Will it require US military intervention ?

I say Ukraine should surrender before Putin decides to go after the next border country.

Ukraine will never surrender, but they won't recover Crimea, probably not the Donbas territory that Russia now holds & 50:50 they'll retake the land bridge territory that Russia now holds. I don't think Russia makes any further gains west, takes Odessa, unites with Transnistra & takes the entire coast line (imo).

As my quote from the NYT above implies, they are currently in a battle for the territorial boundaries which will follow from the inevitable cease fire & frozen conflict.

That's my best guess & most hopeful likely outcome for Ukraine, but then I didn't think Putin would invade & I did not expect the Ukrainians to fight so successfully.

My hope is that the fighting, killing & destruction end as soon as possible, so long as Ukraine survives as a viable nation, even if it loses some territory in the process.

It will now be years before Russia can credibly threaten a conventional invasion of a NATO country.

[MDlaxfan76]

There's certainly a fair critique to be had on spending. And priorities.

Looks like we'll spend 10-15% of the amount of our annual defense budget on helping Ukraine defeat Russia. Given the global ramifications, IMO that's worthwhile. Note that it's just a few grains of sand compared to what we just spent domestically on COVID.

But that doesn't eliminate the very valid critique of why we can't seem to solve other issues, too. It's really not the $, it's the will...and the belief that it'll be ineffective, in some quarters...

Sub Saharan African countries have been at war with each other with far greater casualties and refugee crises. Yet, USA aid to these countries is considerably less. Their global ramifications are no less than those along Russia-Ukraine's border. Priorities, man. Priorities.

I disagree as to geopolitical consequences, though you can certainly make a valid case that there are other tragedies in the world deserving of more attention and help. (Just as you can make a valid case that we have important issues at home).

But we went to war when Iraq invaded and intended to absorb Kuwait for much the same reason, the preservation of the rule of current international law against such attempts to change the boundaries of countries by military force.

Here, we have a global superpower, a nuclear power, with a conventional force more than 10X of the invaded countries's military, a country to whom we had pledged to support, to guarantee peace, under the condition that they would give up their nuclear arsenal...yeah, let that go and the hell with the international rules.

Far greater geopolitically than anything happening in Africa, horrific as some of those atrocities have been and could be.

[MDlaxfan76]

Our EU allies are terrified. They're not echoing our triumphalism. They're worried about surviving, not "winning".
They want a cease fire asap, so they can keep buying the Russian energy upon which their economies are still dependent.

SecDef can't promise a military victory when US forces are not involved.
He gave Putin the perfect talking point & justification for using a tac nuc.
He is creating false expectations among the US public.

Speak softly & wield a big stick, or better yet, give one to the Ukrainians.
No one can "win" without control of the airspace & the Black Sea.

This comes across as defeatist.

Our EU allies are not "terrified", though we all certainly should be very worried about Putin taking this nuclear when he's otherwise defeated. EU certainly. But as previously said, if he does, NATO should/will utterly destroy his conventional capacities and create that no fly zone. Don't escalate to respond with nuclear. The world, not just NATO, will rally in horror.

On energy, Poland is leading the way and everyone else in NATO is scrambling as well. But the entire region has decided that they MUST decouple from energy from Russia...the only reversal of that would be Putin's overthrow.

Defeatist ? It's not our war, or NATO's. It's a civil war between former Soviet states. Unresolved issues from the breakup of the USSR. We have chosen to support Ukraine with financial & military aid. That's it.

Watch the evening news from Germany, France & the UK. They're -- asking their "experts" w.t.f is Sec Austin proposing ? You don't hear any of their retired Generals calling to fill the skies over Ukraine with F-35's. The EUroburghers don't want to humiliate Russia & devastate their military. They want the killing & destruction to end asap so they can return to the status quo & resume trading with Russia & buying their energy. It will be years before they don't need Russian energy.

Russia is still holding & slowly gaining territory. They still control the sea & the skies. They are free to lob missiles into Ukraine at their liesure. They are far from defeated.
So you'd trade a tac nuc strike for a no fly zone ? That's just nuts. Once a tac nuc flies, if we escalate conventionally, more will follow.

Yup, defeatist...thank goodness the Ukrainians aren't led by you, Salty. Just bend over and take and ask for another, please sir Putin, can I have another?

I totally agree with you that Russia is far from defeated. But they need to be, thoroughly. Repelled from Ukraine, choked from rebuilding their military capacities. That's likely to take many months if not years.

And you're kidding yourself if you think the bulk of Europeans don't know that, too. Maybe it's just your RT reading crowd that's whining about getting back to 'normal' dependence on Russian energy?

Would I trade a tac nuclear strike for a no fly zone? Of course not, no one is asking for a tactical nuclear strike...the point is that Putin's military sure as shooting should know that their forces will be utterly destroyed if they go nuclear. And no, we don't need to respond with nuclear to achieve that end. So, if Putin wants to go that path, he's going to need to overcome the generals and the rest of the forces who remain sane...of course, they may do it...and then we'll need to respond hard.

But if that happens, we should NOT go nuclear (or chem/bio)...our not doing so, yet utterly destroying their forces, will rally the world and set the stage for Putin's demise.

[MDlaxfan76]

What is the value in overtly stating our intent (via our Ukrainian proxy fighters) to destroy the ability of Russia to threaten their neighbors ?
Are our NATO allies saying that too ? Don't threaten it unless you intend to do it & have the means to deliver on the threat.

How is Ukraine going to keep their ports open ? Will we be providing them a Navy ?

NATO, the EU, South Korea, Japan, and the United States are going to slowly degrade Russia’s military by denying what Russia needs for spare parts and maintenance.

It’s a deviously simple and devastatingly effective long-term strategy.

Virtually every military in the world, including that of the United States, struggles with spare parts and maintenance of their armed forces. Russia is practically an exemplar of the problem. The NATO and U.S. allies are simply going after the soft underside of the Russian military.

DocBarrister

That's indeed a major element, and might well be the most important part. Electronic components and technology will also remain severely restricted.

https://www.reuters.com/world/shrinking ... 022-04-26/
Shrinking U.S. Stinger missile supply faces re-stocking challenges

WASHINGTON, April 26 (Reuters) - Shoulder-fired Stinger missiles are in hot demand in Ukraine where they have successfully stopped Russian assaults from the air, but U.S. supplies have shrunk and producing more of the anti-aircraft weapons faces significant hurdles.

Challenges include complications related to ramping up production, reluctance by the United States to redirect valuable manufacturing capacity to decades-old technology, and fears among defense companies that they would be stuck with unwanted arms when the Ukraine war winds down, according to interviews with U.S. officials and defense firms.

While U.S. troops themselves have limited use for the current supply of Stingers -- a lightweight, self-contained weapon that can be deployed quickly to defend against helicopters, airplanes, drones and even cruise missiles -- the U.S. needs to maintain its supply on hand while it develops the next generation of a "man-portable air defense system."

"Right before Ukraine hit, we were going to divest ourselves of Stingers," a congressional source said. Still, Pentagon officials are concerned about a "dwindling" surplus, according to a Pentagon official and the congressional source.

Ukrainian troops have shot down at least six targets during the conflict using Lithuanian-provided Stingers, according to an April 6 Facebook post by Arvydas Anusauskas, Lithuania's defense minister, including helicopters, planes, drones and a cruise missile. Reuters could not verify the claim.

Since February, the U.S. has shipped 1,400 Stingers to Ukraine, according to an administration official. But sourcing more will be difficult.

The Stinger production line was closed in December 2020, said Pentagon spokesperson Jessica Maxwell. Since then, Raytheon Technologies (RTX.N) won a contract in July 2021 to manufacture more Stingers, but mainly for international governments, according to the U.S. Army. The sole Stinger facility, in Arizona, only produces at a low rate.

The Pentagon has not ordered new Stingers for about 18 years, but has ordered parts or made other efforts to increase its supply. For example, the Army is in the middle of a "service life extension plan" for some of its Stingers that were to become obsolete in 2023 and is extending what the military calls their "useful life" until 2030.

The Pentagon, which has thrown together weekly meetings to discuss surging weapons demand from Eastern Europe, met with a group of eight defense-contractor chief executives in mid-April to discuss the supply of weapons to Ukraine, including the Stinger. read more

Two sources familiar with the meeting said Raytheon CEO Greg Hayes noted that it can require six to 12 months to restart a munitions production line.

Hayes told analysts on a post-earnings conference call on Tuesday that "we have a very limited stock of material for Stinger production."

"We've been working with the Department of Defense for the last couple of weeks," Hayes said. "Some of the components are no longer commercially available, and so we're going to have to go out and redesign some of the electronics in the missile of the seeker head. That's going to take us a little bit of time."

Hayes said he could ramp up production in 2022, but larger replenishments will be in 2023 or 2024.

At the meeting of CEOs earlier this month, industry executives voiced reservations about increasing weapons production. One chief executive said that when the Ukraine war winds down, they do not want to be stuck with warehouses full of unsellable inventory without a guaranteed buyer, three people familiar with the discussion said.

Congress also wants more Stingers, or at least something that can do the same job.

The chairman of the House of Representatives Armed Services Committee, Representative Adam Smith, wrote Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin last week and pointed out an "apparent absence of a Department of Defense plan to meet short-range air defense replenishment requirements for not only our U.S. stocks of Stinger systems, but those of other contributing allies and partners."

A Pentagon official who oversees weapons acquisitions for the Army, Doug Bush, told Congress on March 31 the Defense Department was putting together a plan to increase Stinger production and planned to inform Congress imminently.

But as of late last week, a second congressional source who spoke on condition of anonymity said there has been no information about the plan.

Senator Richard Blumenthal, a member of the Senate's Committee on Armed Services, asked Austin earlier in April at a Senate budget hearing about using the Defense Production Act (DPA) to restore depleted supplies of Stingers and Javelin anti-tank missiles.

But using that law, which forces industry to put resources into an immediate effort to make a product needed for national security purposes, is premature, Pentagon spokesperson Maxwell said.

In the longer term, the Army is looking for a replacement for the Stinger that will go into production in 2027.

ok, that's the 'longer term', post 2027...in the meantime, hopefully we'll realize that we need to direct the production and guarantee purchase of the best tech we have today for the warfare in front of us today. Sounds like the problem is getting recognized, not ignored...but they need to put some juice behind it.

[MDlaxfan76]

Our EU allies are terrified. They're not echoing our triumphalism. They're worried about surviving, not "winning".
They want a cease fire asap, so they can keep buying the Russian energy upon which their economies are still dependent.

SecDef can't promise a military victory when US forces are not involved.
He gave Putin the perfect talking point & justification for using a tac nuc.
He is creating false expectations among the US public.

Speak softly & wield a big stick, or better yet, give one to the Ukrainians.
No one can "win" without control of the airspace & the Black Sea.

This comes across as defeatist.

Our EU allies are not "terrified", though we all certainly should be very worried about Putin taking this nuclear when he's otherwise defeated. EU certainly. But as previously said, if he does, NATO should/will utterly destroy his conventional capacities and create that no fly zone. Don't escalate to respond with nuclear. The world, not just NATO, will rally in horror.

On energy, Poland is leading the way and everyone else in NATO is scrambling as well. But the entire region has decided that they MUST decouple from energy from Russia...the only reversal of that would be Putin's overthrow.

Defeatist ? It's not our war, or NATO's. It's a civil war between former Soviet states. Unresolved issues from the breakup of the USSR. We have chosen to support Ukraine with financial & military aid. That's it.

Watch the evening news from Germany, France & the UK. They're -- asking their "experts" w.t.f is Sec Austin proposing ? You don't hear any of their retired Generals calling to fill the skies over Ukraine with F-35's. The EUroburghers don't want to humiliate Russia & devastate their military. They want the killing & destruction to end asap so they can return to the status quo & resume trading with Russia & buying their energy. It will be years before they don't need Russian energy.

Russia is still holding & slowly gaining territory. They still control the sea & the skies. They are free to lob missiles into Ukraine at their liesure. They are far from defeated.
So you'd trade a tac nuc strike for a no fly zone ? That's just nuts. Once a tac nuc flies, if we escalate conventionally, more will follow.

“It's a civil war between former Soviet states. Unresolved issues from the breakup of the USSR.”—old salt

You can’t be serious.

Anyone who does not understand that Russia has invaded a sovereign European nation, Ukraine, with its own unique culture, language, and history, has a really distorted perspective of what’s going on.

DocBarrister

If you read enough RT, you get that way, apparently.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Our EU allies are terrified. They're not echoing our triumphalism. They're worried about surviving, not "winning".
They want a cease fire asap, so they can keep buying the Russian energy upon which their economies are still dependent.

SecDef can't promise a military victory when US forces are not involved.
He gave Putin the perfect talking point & justification for using a tac nuc.
He is creating false expectations among the US public.

Speak softly & wield a big stick, or better yet, give one to the Ukrainians.
No one can "win" without control of the airspace & the Black Sea.

This comes across as defeatist.

Our EU allies are not "terrified", though we all certainly should be very worried about Putin taking this nuclear when he's otherwise defeated. EU certainly. But as previously said, if he does, NATO should/will utterly destroy his conventional capacities and create that no fly zone. Don't escalate to respond with nuclear. The world, not just NATO, will rally in horror.

On energy, Poland is leading the way and everyone else in NATO is scrambling as well. But the entire region has decided that they MUST decouple from energy from Russia...the only reversal of that would be Putin's overthrow.

Defeatist ? It's not our war, or NATO's. It's a civil war between former Soviet states. Unresolved issues from the breakup of the USSR. We have chosen to support Ukraine with financial & military aid. That's it.

Watch the evening news from Germany, France & the UK. They're -- asking their "experts" w.t.f is Sec Austin proposing ? You don't hear any of their retired Generals calling to fill the skies over Ukraine with F-35's. The EUroburghers don't want to humiliate Russia & devastate their military. They want the killing & destruction to end asap so they can return to the status quo & resume trading with Russia & buying their energy. It will be years before they don't need Russian energy.

Russia is still holding & slowly gaining territory. They still control the sea & the skies. They are free to lob missiles into Ukraine at their liesure. They are far from defeated.
So you'd trade a tac nuc strike for a no fly zone ? That's just nuts. Once a tac nuc flies, if we escalate conventionally, more will follow.

“It's a civil war between former Soviet states. Unresolved issues from the breakup of the USSR.”—old salt

You can’t be serious.

Anyone who does not understand that Russia has invaded a sovereign European nation, Ukraine, with its own unique culture, language, and history, has a really distorted perspective of what’s going on.

DocBarrister

If you read enough RT, you get that way, apparently.

Stockholm syndrome

[old salt]

Yup, defeatist...thank goodness the Ukrainians aren't led by you, Salty. Just bend over and take and ask for another, please sir Putin, can I have another?

...yeah, you're a real tough guy, so long as other people's kids are dying over the border lines of former Russian provinces.
There have been plenty of stupid wars in our lifetime, but this may be the worst.

[old salt]

Our EU allies are terrified. They're not echoing our triumphalism. They're worried about surviving, not "winning".
They want a cease fire asap, so they can keep buying the Russian energy upon which their economies are still dependent.

SecDef can't promise a military victory when US forces are not involved.
He gave Putin the perfect talking point & justification for using a tac nuc.
He is creating false expectations among the US public.

Speak softly & wield a big stick, or better yet, give one to the Ukrainians.
No one can "win" without control of the airspace & the Black Sea.

This comes across as defeatist.

Our EU allies are not "terrified", though we all certainly should be very worried about Putin taking this nuclear when he's otherwise defeated. EU certainly. But as previously said, if he does, NATO should/will utterly destroy his conventional capacities and create that no fly zone. Don't escalate to respond with nuclear. The world, not just NATO, will rally in horror.

On energy, Poland is leading the way and everyone else in NATO is scrambling as well. But the entire region has decided that they MUST decouple from energy from Russia...the only reversal of that would be Putin's overthrow.

Defeatist ? It's not our war, or NATO's. It's a civil war between former Soviet states. Unresolved issues from the breakup of the USSR. We have chosen to support Ukraine with financial & military aid. That's it.

Watch the evening news from Germany, France & the UK. They're -- asking their "experts" w.t.f is Sec Austin proposing ? You don't hear any of their retired Generals calling to fill the skies over Ukraine with F-35's. The EUroburghers don't want to humiliate Russia & devastate their military. They want the killing & destruction to end asap so they can return to the status quo & resume trading with Russia & buying their energy. It will be years before they don't need Russian energy.

Russia is still holding & slowly gaining territory. They still control the sea & the skies. They are free to lob missiles into Ukraine at their liesure. They are far from defeated.
So you'd trade a tac nuc strike for a no fly zone ? That's just nuts. Once a tac nuc flies, if we escalate conventionally, more will follow.

“It's a civil war between former Soviet states. Unresolved issues from the breakup of the USSR.”—old salt

You can’t be serious.

Anyone who does not understand that Russia has invaded a sovereign European nation, Ukraine, with its own unique culture, language, and history, has a really distorted perspective of what’s going on.

DocBarrister

If you read enough RT, you get that way, apparently.

Stockholm syndrome

Have you tough guys sent your kids to join the Ukrainian foreign legion ?

[Typical Lax Dad]

Our EU allies are terrified. They're not echoing our triumphalism. They're worried about surviving, not "winning".
They want a cease fire asap, so they can keep buying the Russian energy upon which their economies are still dependent.

SecDef can't promise a military victory when US forces are not involved.
He gave Putin the perfect talking point & justification for using a tac nuc.
He is creating false expectations among the US public.

Speak softly & wield a big stick, or better yet, give one to the Ukrainians.
No one can "win" without control of the airspace & the Black Sea.

This comes across as defeatist.

Our EU allies are not "terrified", though we all certainly should be very worried about Putin taking this nuclear when he's otherwise defeated. EU certainly. But as previously said, if he does, NATO should/will utterly destroy his conventional capacities and create that no fly zone. Don't escalate to respond with nuclear. The world, not just NATO, will rally in horror.

On energy, Poland is leading the way and everyone else in NATO is scrambling as well. But the entire region has decided that they MUST decouple from energy from Russia...the only reversal of that would be Putin's overthrow.

Defeatist ? It's not our war, or NATO's. It's a civil war between former Soviet states. Unresolved issues from the breakup of the USSR. We have chosen to support Ukraine with financial & military aid. That's it.

Watch the evening news from Germany, France & the UK. They're -- asking their "experts" w.t.f is Sec Austin proposing ? You don't hear any of their retired Generals calling to fill the skies over Ukraine with F-35's. The EUroburghers don't want to humiliate Russia & devastate their military. They want the killing & destruction to end asap so they can return to the status quo & resume trading with Russia & buying their energy. It will be years before they don't need Russian energy.

Russia is still holding & slowly gaining territory. They still control the sea & the skies. They are free to lob missiles into Ukraine at their liesure. They are far from defeated.
So you'd trade a tac nuc strike for a no fly zone ? That's just nuts. Once a tac nuc flies, if we escalate conventionally, more will follow.

“It's a civil war between former Soviet states. Unresolved issues from the breakup of the USSR.”—old salt

You can’t be serious.

Anyone who does not understand that Russia has invaded a sovereign European nation, Ukraine, with its own unique culture, language, and history, has a really distorted perspective of what’s going on.

DocBarrister

If you read enough RT, you get that way, apparently.

Stockholm syndrome

Have you tough guys sent your kids to join the Ukrainian foreign legion ?

My son is a money changer and daughter is in tech….you send yours to help ol’ Vlad.

[old salt]

ok, that's the 'longer term', post 2027...in the meantime, hopefully we'll realize that we need to direct the production and guarantee purchase of the best tech we have today for the warfare in front of us today. Sounds like the problem is getting recognized, not ignored...but they need to put some juice behind it.

They can no longer get the sub-components for the Stinger seeker head. They are going to have to redesign the entire seeker head.

[old salt]

Our EU allies are terrified. They're not echoing our triumphalism. They're worried about surviving, not "winning".
They want a cease fire asap, so they can keep buying the Russian energy upon which their economies are still dependent.

SecDef can't promise a military victory when US forces are not involved.
He gave Putin the perfect talking point & justification for using a tac nuc.
He is creating false expectations among the US public.

Speak softly & wield a big stick, or better yet, give one to the Ukrainians.
No one can "win" without control of the airspace & the Black Sea.

This comes across as defeatist.

Our EU allies are not "terrified", though we all certainly should be very worried about Putin taking this nuclear when he's otherwise defeated. EU certainly. But as previously said, if he does, NATO should/will utterly destroy his conventional capacities and create that no fly zone. Don't escalate to respond with nuclear. The world, not just NATO, will rally in horror.

On energy, Poland is leading the way and everyone else in NATO is scrambling as well. But the entire region has decided that they MUST decouple from energy from Russia...the only reversal of that would be Putin's overthrow.

Defeatist ? It's not our war, or NATO's. It's a civil war between former Soviet states. Unresolved issues from the breakup of the USSR. We have chosen to support Ukraine with financial & military aid. That's it.

Watch the evening news from Germany, France & the UK. They're -- asking their "experts" w.t.f is Sec Austin proposing ? You don't hear any of their retired Generals calling to fill the skies over Ukraine with F-35's. The EUroburghers don't want to humiliate Russia & devastate their military. They want the killing & destruction to end asap so they can return to the status quo & resume trading with Russia & buying their energy. It will be years before they don't need Russian energy.

Russia is still holding & slowly gaining territory. They still control the sea & the skies. They are free to lob missiles into Ukraine at their liesure. They are far from defeated.
So you'd trade a tac nuc strike for a no fly zone ? That's just nuts. Once a tac nuc flies, if we escalate conventionally, more will follow.

“It's a civil war between former Soviet states. Unresolved issues from the breakup of the USSR.”—old salt

You can’t be serious.

Anyone who does not understand that Russia has invaded a sovereign European nation, Ukraine, with its own unique culture, language, and history, has a really distorted perspective of what’s going on.

DocBarrister

If you read enough RT, you get that way, apparently.

Stockholm syndrome

Have you tough guys sent your kids to join the Ukrainian foreign legion ?

My son is a money changer and daughter is in tech….you send yours to help ol’ Vlad.

Figures. Somebody else will do the fighting for them & you.