All things CoronaVirus

[Cooter]

In a nutshell


jefferson.jpg

Me too.

[Cooter]

Anyone know where to find a listing of US deaths by Age chart?

[Farfromgeneva]

Death count estimates for Wuhan in WaPo:

Chinese families should be sweeping graves now. But thousands still haven’t buried their dead.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/as ... story.html

Using photos posted online, social media sleuths have estimated that Wuhan funeral homes had returned 3,500 urns a day since March 23. That would imply a death toll in Wuhan of about 42,000 — or 16 times the official number. Another widely shared calculation, based on Wuhan’s 84 furnaces running nonstop and each cremation taking an hour, put the death toll at 46,800.

Wuhan residents say the activities belie the official statistics. “It can’t be right . . . because the incinerators have been working round the clock, so how can so few people have died?” a man, identified only by his surname of Zhang, told Radio Free Asia.

U.S. intelligence agencies have reportedly concluded that China’s numbers are much lower than they are in reality.

Or more...

If accurate, this report should not surprise anyone who's paying attention re Chicoms.

It shouldn't. But it did indeed surprise most of our leaders.

It's plainly, CLEARLY a surprise to many of our Federal and State leaders who laughed this off, from both parties.

And the entirety of FoxNews. FoxNews trusted that it was no big deal, and pumped its viewers with this notion for weeks.

Remember the wanker who wore the gasmask to Congress? That freaking guy thought it was a joke, and believed China, and ignored Italy.

The security briefings warned early on that China was minimizing the severity of the outbreak and that it had a very high chance of being a global pandemic. The people at the top were properly warned. They failed to act in a timely manner.

there have been dozens of reports, viral and otherwise, that china had millions of infections, 10s of thousands of dead. crematories running 24/7 for months. have been backing out their numbers since the beginning.

We have joined that club - at least one million infections and it will be many millions before it is done. We have had an administration that has been trying to hide / minimize the problem since the beginning as well.

When the H1 Ni1 pandemic had been contracted by 30 million Americans and an estimated 18 thousand Americans died where was your outrage.

I have to say the continued repetition of complains about decade old stuff and blaming Obama or Hillary in the middle of the f’ng Black Plague is just perhaps the dumbest thing on all of these boards. I understand you don’t like that your boy is getting crushed but do you understand what a pandemic is? That people are dropping all over the country and world? This is a joke, even if you were a Russian bot rather than a person, which it almost seems like.

Crying like a little b*#ch: But, but Obama did something a decade ago!!! Pathetic.

[youthathletics]

Anyone know where to find a listing of US deaths by Age chart?

This is the best I could find....in percentages. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ographics/

[youthathletics]

(omitte)
Are you all now going to blame Trump for "LISTENING" to Fauci back on January 21st? Enough of the blame game.



#OrangeManBad

Read the WaPo article I posted. Fauci changed his tune within a couple of weeks:

I did read it, that does not change a darned thing. Fauci SCREWED UP and he is the #1 guy as a medical adviser in this mess.

Pick a lane Red. You all are bashing Trump constantly....some worthy. I proved in the video Facui screwed up...BIGLY, Trump clearly listened to him and counted on the Cornell/NIH directors advice...Trump walks it out AFTER listening to Facui.....and many like you....shoot Trump for it. It's okay to to hate Trump.....but maybe you should come out and say you are ticked at Fauci for advising our President incorrectly.

Fauci had clearly changed his tune by mid February - but Trump was NOT listening to him then. He was listening instead to a lot of other non-expert voices like Hannity et al. (Mid February was too late, the damage was done. and PROVE IT about Hannity)

And yes - Fauci screwed up early, but fixed his views fairly early. But the administration as a whole at the top delayed and delayed. There were efforts (Mulvaney convening meetings, Azar working with his head down to avoid the scrutiny of Trump) that were happening underneath, but if you don't have the leader, you are not going to make much progress. (Does not the mere fact the Fauci slow rolled this, prove the uncertaintly as this grew. Heck...we could not even get our CDC into China early b/c the Chinese would not allow us...remember that?)

You cannot place all the blame on Fauci - but what ever happened to "the buck stops here?" Oh - “I don’t take responsibility at all.” —Donald J Trump (No argument that there is plenty of blame to throw around. But that does no good, now does it...unless it makes you feel better inside.

I believe far too many are looking at this in a snapshot and not following the bread crumbs. Go back to the first post on this thread of January 28th....read the posts kramerica cited...this was all just ramping up...and you know what, it was 6 days...yes 6 days.... after Fauci spoke in the youtube video I cited above that is nothing to get spun up about. I suppose the POTUS was supposed to pull testing for a new virus for millions out of his fat orange ( | ) just so you all wouldn't whine and complain in a partisan fashion. We are in this together. AND as kramaerica poston in his first thread......Protect yourself with (duh!) good hygene and social distancing:

[jhu72]

https://www.sermo.com/press-releases/la ... n-context/

sermo poll of global physicians article. you can deep dive on results if you want to sign up.
these guys and gals are the front lines of what's happening, in numbers not one offs.

Interesting study. Couple of quick takeaways: (1) Those nations in the most trouble currently are relying on "Hail Mary medicine"; Spain and Italy. Pretty much everyone is treating for pneumonia. (2) Only China seems to (have) prioritize for the elderly.

[Cooter]

Anyone know where to find a listing of US deaths by Age chart?

This is the best I could find....in percentages. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ographics/

I has seen that chart but I was looking for the U.S. numbers.

That Iceland study had 50% being asymptomatic with coronavirus.
I get the feeling that the chance of a healthy individual under the age of 50 dying from coronavirus might be less than 1/1000.
Given that you get a lot of people with health problems in the 50-70 range - the numbers might not really be to different for a healthy person aged 50-70.

Here we are in the information age, so why isn't the government providing us with these sorts of numbers?

[RedFromMI]

Anyone know where to find a listing of US deaths by Age chart?

This is the best I could find....in percentages. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ographics/

I has seen that chart but I was looking for the U.S. numbers.

That Iceland study had 50% being asymptomatic with coronavirus.
I get the feeling that the chance of a healthy individual under the age of 50 dying from coronavirus might be less than 1/1000.
Given that you get a lot of people with health problems in the 50-70 range - the numbers might not really be to different for a healthy person aged 50-70.

Here we are in the information age, so why isn't the government providing us with these sorts of numbers?

Because unlike Iceland, we are NOT testing anywhere near the level we should be. So we are partially blind to the actual situation on the ground.

[jhu72]

In the short term: stay inside, wash hands, stop smoking, drop weight, don't hoard, wear a mask. Beyond that: send the ventilators where they're needed. Geneva General has 2 confirmed cases ... there are probably 30 cases in the county ... for now others need the ventilators more than we do. [BTW ... still looking for the evidence that ventilators generally save lives in COVID cases]. Beyond that: short term economic relief ... some direct checks TO THOSE WHO NEED THEM ... other relief via debt forgiveness (eg, student loans). Infrastructure stimulus is a good idea for long term economy ... not just roads and bridges, but 5g networks, etc... yreat internet as public utility and subsidize (on line education today shows us this is necessary). Beyond that: health care for all. No one should be hesitating to see a doctor or dying for lack of money for insulin. Beyond that: a comprehensive plan for pandemic response at federal, state and county levels. Beneath it all: reestablish trust in public information by not lying. First step out of a hole: stop digging.

Great post - as to your question on ventilators: they "save" lives by buying time for the body to heal. No ventilator would mean no way to get enough oxygen into the bloodstream, and that would kill someone directly.

The ultimate question is who is best to put on a ventilator - because the sicker they are as well as the longer they are on one the less likely this buying of time will matter. The Sermo link a couple of posts up shows that physicians in different countries are making differing decisions on ventilator use...

Not sure anyone really has an answer.

Thanks for the info. I've heard from a doc in Roch that it's proving hard to get folks off of the ventilators and that with COVID the intubation procedure seems to be doing even more damage. I guess they are experimenting with allowing oxygen levels to go lower than usual with COVID cases and to only intubate when mo other option is available.

Someone posted an article a few days ago that ventilators are only effective in riding people through the disease in about 20% of all cases. You go on a ventilator and the most likely outcome is death. Normally, across all diseases the survival rate is much higher, but not 100%.

[youthathletics]

https://www.sermo.com/press-releases/la ... n-context/

sermo poll of global physicians article. you can deep dive on results if you want to sign up.
these guys and gals are the front lines of what's happening, in numbers not one offs.

Interesting study. Couple of quick takeaways: (1) Those nations in the most trouble currently are relying on "Hail Mary medicine"; Spain and Italy. Pretty much everyone is treating for pneumonia. (2) Only China seems to (have) prioritize for the elderly.

It was my understanding, that they are treating with z-pack (often a pneumonia script) so that it buys your body more time to fight off the virus, which seems to attack the lungs with a coating. The Z-pack, essentially buys you time. I may have that wrong, but that was my understanding of the process of one of the multiple meds.

[Cooter]

Anyone know where to find a listing of US deaths by Age chart?

This is the best I could find....in percentages. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ographics/

I has seen that chart but I was looking for the U.S. numbers.

That Iceland study had 50% being asymptomatic with coronavirus.
I get the feeling that the chance of a healthy individual under the age of 50 dying from coronavirus might be less than 1/1000.
Given that you get a lot of people with health problems in the 50-70 range - the numbers might not really be to different for a healthy person aged 50-70.

Here we are in the information age, so why isn't the government providing us with these sorts of numbers?

Because unlike Iceland, we are NOT testing anywhere near the level we should be. So we are partially blind to the actual situation on the ground.

I am sure that the CDC knows the age (and health status) of everyone who has died in America, along with the number of tested cases.

[Kismet]

Anyone know where to find a listing of US deaths by Age chart?

This is the best I could find....in percentages. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ographics/

I has seen that chart but I was looking for the U.S. numbers.

That Iceland study had 50% being asymptomatic with coronavirus.
I get the feeling that the chance of a healthy individual under the age of 50 dying from coronavirus might be less than 1/1000.
Given that you get a lot of people with health problems in the 50-70 range - the numbers might not really be to different for a healthy person aged 50-70.

Here we are in the information age, so why isn't the government providing us with these sorts of numbers?

Because unlike Iceland, we are NOT testing anywhere near the level we should be. So we are partially blind to the actual situation on the ground.

I am sure that the CDC knows the age (and health status) of everyone who has died in America, along with the number of tested cases.

I wouldn't bet the ranch on that being totally true - you'd think and hope so but don't think its a given at this point or they would make the information public in some fashion you'd think...

For a bit of levity and information - the TP shortage explained, sort of, and its not necessarily hoarding

https://marker.medium.com/what-everyone ... 12e1358fe0

and in good news dept

Statement from Oregon Governor Kate Brown - "New York needs more ventilators, and we are answering their call for help.We'll be sending 140 ventilators to help NY because Oregon is in a better position right now. We must do all that we can to help those on the front lines of this response."

Oregon's timeline for peak is behind NY and NY has promised to reciprocate.

[jhu72]

Bad news for those thinking US deaths will be limited to 20,000. They graph I presented a few pages back indicates we will be above 10,000 deaths by Sunday evening. 2 day projection based on current trendline. We are riding up the curve. You get an equal number of deaths riding down the curve.

If you project out 14 days (I have) we will have 80,000 dead. Assume that is that is the peak. You end up with 160,000 dead. Frankly I think the models being used by the experts today, are bad models (they know this, but the best they have currently). They behave as if there is only a single peak. There is not. We have different states and cities all riding different curves peaking at different times. This makes the problem worse.

Hopefully the states looking at later peaking curves are learning something from the examples of those that go before. Currently that doesn't seem to be happening to the degree it should be.

[jhu72]

https://www.sermo.com/press-releases/la ... n-context/

sermo poll of global physicians article. you can deep dive on results if you want to sign up.
these guys and gals are the front lines of what's happening, in numbers not one offs.

Interesting study. Couple of quick takeaways: (1) Those nations in the most trouble currently are relying on "Hail Mary medicine"; Spain and Italy. Pretty much everyone is treating for pneumonia. (2) Only China seems to (have) prioritize for the elderly.

It was my understanding, that they are treating with z-pack (often a pneumonia script) so that it buys your body more time to fight off the virus, which seems to attack the lungs with a coating. The Z-pack, essentially buys you time. I may have that wrong, but that was my understanding of the process of one of the multiple meds.

Treating for pneumonia is the right thing to do. It has no effect on the virus however.

[Farfromgeneva]

I’m probably trekking beyond my mathematical skills but the 160k implies something of a Gaussian bell curve I assume or some other equation to get to the 160k? Is it possible this is very non linear on either side of the peak or is your model attempting to smooth that out? Just curious.

[Peter Brown]

What? Pete misinterpreted a map and used that to take a gratuitous swipe at his liberal tormentors?? Laudy, say it AIN'T SO! Another victim of LDS taking his lumps...

..

I didn't have the mental bandwidth the other day to yet again school a gaggle of lefty throat-braying penguins. But now that you ask, read slowly:

https://indyweek.com/news/northcarolina ... the-south/

Thread:

https://twitter.com/oliviacpaschal/stat ... 9890320386

Money shot:

there's a reason why so many of the places where distance traveled fell below 2 miles earlier are in cities. A lot of the South is rural, and, more importantly, a lot of places don't have access to essential goods and services (groceries, internet, healthcare) w/o travel.

You prefer everyone stay home and die?

If you like data without context (and alienating an entire region of the country), the map was fine!!

[jhu72]

Anyone know where to find a listing of US deaths by Age chart?

This is the best I could find....in percentages. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ographics/

I has seen that chart but I was looking for the U.S. numbers.

That Iceland study had 50% being asymptomatic with coronavirus.
I get the feeling that the chance of a healthy individual under the age of 50 dying from coronavirus might be less than 1/1000.
Given that you get a lot of people with health problems in the 50-70 range - the numbers might not really be to different for a healthy person aged 50-70.

Here we are in the information age, so why isn't the government providing us with these sorts of numbers?

Because unlike Iceland, we are NOT testing anywhere near the level we should be. So we are partially blind to the actual situation on the ground.

I am sure that the CDC knows the age (and health status) of everyone who has died in America, along with the number of tested cases.

I wouldn't bet the ranch on that being totally true - you's think and hope so but don't think its a given at this point or they would make the information public in some fashion you'd think...

For a bit of levity and information - the TP shortage explained, sort of, and its not necessarily hoarding

https://marker.medium.com/what-everyone ... 12e1358fe0

and in good news dept

Statement from Oregon Governor Kate Brown - "New York needs more ventilators, and we are answering their call for help.We'll be sending 140 ventilators to help NY because Oregon is in a better position right now. We must do all that we can to help those on the front lines of this response."

Oregon's timeline for peak is behind NY and NY has promised to reciprocate.

Good for Oregon!!

[Kismet]

Another example of some of the lunacy out there - this from today's Chicago Sun-Times

Illinois adjusts on the fly to meet medical supply needs in a coronavirus ‘Wild West’

"To meet the deadline of a supplier and get 1.5 million potentially life-saving N95 masks, Illinois’ assistant comptroller raced north on I-55 with a $3.4 million check. In a state where the government usually operates on the basis of buy now, pay later (often much, much later), the emergency of the coronavirus pandemic has required a decidedly different approach.

About two weeks ago, Illinois officials tracked down a supply of 1.5 million potentially life-saving N95 respirator masks in China through a middleman in the Chicago area and negotiated a deal to buy them.

One day before they were expecting to complete the purchase, they got a call in the morning from the supplier informing them he had to get a check to the bank by 2 p.m. that day, or the deal was off. Other bidders had surfaced.

Realizing there was no way the supplier could get to Springfield and back by the deadline, Illinois assistant comptroller Ellen Andres jumped in her car and raced north on I-55 with a check for $3,469,600.

From the other end, Jeffrey Polen, president of The Moving Concierge in Lemont, drove south. Polen isn’t in the medical supply business, but he “knows a guy,” an old friend who specializes in working with China’s factories.

As they drove, Andres and Polen arranged to meet in the parking lot of a McDonald’s restaurant just off the interstate in Dwight. They made the handoff there.

Polen made it back to his bank with 20 minutes to spare. Illinois already has received part of the mask shipment. There’s more on the way."

That’s just a taste of the “Wild West” world of emergency procurement taking place over the past several weeks as the state fights for equipment and supplies to protect frontline workers and patients in the battle against COVID-19."

Does it really have to be this way?

[calourie]

Number of patients in intensive care in Italy declined over the past day for the first time since the virus started gaining traction (approximately 42 days in) !

[wgdsr]

Another example of some of the lunacy out there - this from today's Chicago Sun-Times

Illinois adjusts on the fly to meet medical supply needs in a coronavirus ‘Wild West’

"To meet the deadline of a supplier and get 1.5 million potentially life-saving N95 masks, Illinois’ assistant comptroller raced north on I-55 with a $3.4 million check. In a state where the government usually operates on the basis of buy now, pay later (often much, much later), the emergency of the coronavirus pandemic has required a decidedly different approach.

About two weeks ago, Illinois officials tracked down a supply of 1.5 million potentially life-saving N95 respirator masks in China through a middleman in the Chicago area and negotiated a deal to buy them.

One day before they were expecting to complete the purchase, they got a call in the morning from the supplier informing them he had to get a check to the bank by 2 p.m. that day, or the deal was off. Other bidders had surfaced.

Realizing there was no way the supplier could get to Springfield and back by the deadline, Illinois assistant comptroller Ellen Andres jumped in her car and raced north on I-55 with a check for $3,469,600.

From the other end, Jeffrey Polen, president of The Moving Concierge in Lemont, drove south. Polen isn’t in the medical supply business, but he “knows a guy,” an old friend who specializes in working with China’s factories.

As they drove, Andres and Polen arranged to meet in the parking lot of a McDonald’s restaurant just off the interstate in Dwight. They made the handoff there.

Polen made it back to his bank with 20 minutes to spare. Illinois already has received part of the mask shipment. There’s more on the way."

That’s just a taste of the “Wild West” world of emergency procurement taking place over the past several weeks as the state fights for equipment and supplies to protect frontline workers and patients in the battle against COVID-19."

Does it really have to be this way?

not sure anyone could reasonably explain why they couldn't wire the money.
i know that's not really your question, but we're in crazy town right now.