All Things Russia & Ukraine

[DocBarrister]

Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense reportedly confirmed the missile strike and the Moskva is reported by Forbes to have sunk.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2 ... tical/amp/

Not confirmed by most major news outlets.

In any case, the Moskva is now clearly out of commission.

Major loss for Russia, and it appears likely that there were numerous casualties.

DocBarrister

[old salt]

Moskva

https://news.usni.org/2022/04/13/russia ... doned-ship

[old salt]

the snub. ...& 6 critical weeks - wasted.
https://www.dw.com/en/the-day-with-bren ... v-19049331

[MDlaxfan76]

the snub. ...& 6 critical weeks - wasted.
https://www.dw.com/en/the-day-with-bren ... v-19049331

Interesting indeed; good to see sentiment change in Germany, but the leadership continues to move slowly, at least from the perspective of Ukraine....seems to me that the pressure continues to build to do more and faster.

[DocBarrister]

the snub. ...& 6 critical weeks - wasted.
https://www.dw.com/en/the-day-with-bren ... v-19049331

Interesting indeed; good to see sentiment change in Germany, but the leadership continues to move slowly, at least from the perspective of Ukraine....seems to me that the pressure continues to build to do more and faster.

The snub of President Steinmeier wasn’t the most advisable action, but it’s certainly an understandable one.

Steinmeier and other German leaders were far too close to Putin and Russia. They were close to Putin and Russia even after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014.

Putin and Russia need to be further isolated, economically, diplomatically, and militarily.

To that end, Finland and Sweden should be encouraged to join NATO, and the EU’s reliance on Russian energy needs to end.

None of that is easy, but at least the Germans are beginning to see the light.

DocBarrister

[Kismet]

Russian Ministry of Defense reports via TASS that the Black Sea flagship, cruiser Moskva sank while being towed in a storm. Reports are that the Ukrainians hit it with an anti-ship homemade Neptune cruise missile which ignited stored ammunition on board.

Russian fleet has backed off 60+ miles from Ukrainian coast. So much for a seaborne landing at or near Odessa.

"Russian ship Moskva is down - we are celebrating. If you give us more weapons - we will do more." - Ukrainian parliamentarian

[old salt]

This is EPIC ! Who needs NATO or the EU. Let's invite Ukraine to be our 51st state, if they'll all join the US military & fight on our side.

[DocBarrister]

Russian Ministry of Defense reports via TASS that the Black Sea flagship, cruiser Moskva sank while being towed in a storm. Reports are that the Ukrainians hit it with an anti-ship homemade Neptune cruise missile which ignited stored ammunition on board.

Russian fleet has backed off 60+ miles from Ukrainian coast. So much for a seaborne landing at or near Odessa.

"Russian ship Moskva is down - we are celebrating. If you give us more weapons - we will do more." - Ukrainian parliamentarian

Yep.

The Moskva has been sunk.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/04/14/euro ... index.html

Putin and Russia are losers.

DocBarrister

[Typical Lax Dad]

Russian Ministry of Defense reports via TASS that the Black Sea flagship, cruiser Moskva sank while being towed in a storm. Reports are that the Ukrainians hit it with an anti-ship homemade Neptune cruise missile which ignited stored ammunition on board.

Russian fleet has backed off 60+ miles from Ukrainian coast. So much for a seaborne landing at or near Odessa.

"Russian ship Moskva is down - we are celebrating. If you give us more weapons - we will do more." - Ukrainian parliamentarian

Yep.

The Moskva has been sunk.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/04/14/euro ... index.html

Putin and Russia are losers.

DocBarrister

[MDlaxfan76]

This is EPIC ! Who needs NATO or the EU. Let's invite Ukraine to be our 51st state, if they'll all join the US military & fight on our side.

It's not looking like Putin will have much to celebrate on May 9th at this rate...won't stop him from claiming 'victory' nevertheless.

Interesting re the drones...the anti-ship missiles...how do we best help them further hit the supply lines into Donbas and the southern areas? It's the logistics that matter a lot...

I'm less sanguine about direct tank warfare, but sounds like there are ways to tilt the scales further for what had been assumed to be the underdogs.

[DocBarrister]

This is EPIC ! Who needs NATO or the EU. Let's invite Ukraine to be our 51st state, if they'll all join the US military & fight on our side.

It's not looking like Putin will have much to celebrate on May 9th at this rate...won't stop him from claiming 'victory' nevertheless.

Interesting re the drones...the anti-ship missiles...how do we best help them further hit the supply lines into Donbas and the southern areas? It's the logistics that matter a lot...

I'm less sanguine about direct tank warfare, but sounds like there are ways to tilt the scales further for what had been assumed to be the underdogs.

The Switchblade drones may become important against tanks in more open landscapes. Same with the ancient 155mm Howitzers.

DocBarrister

[old salt]

This is EPIC ! Who needs NATO or the EU. Let's invite Ukraine to be our 51st state, if they'll all join the US military & fight on our side.

It's not looking like Putin will have much to celebrate on May 9th at this rate...won't stop him from claiming 'victory' nevertheless.

Interesting re the drones...the anti-ship missiles...how do we best help them further hit the supply lines into Donbas and the southern areas? It's the logistics that matter a lot...

I'm less sanguine about direct tank warfare, but sounds like there are ways to tilt the scales further for what had been assumed to be the underdogs.

I'm still not sure the Ukrainians can hold Donbas. It depends on what long range weapons they get in time (like artillery & MLRS) & the necessary targeting info to "shoot & scoot". What matters most is that their army stays intact to defend the rest of the country.

If the Russians hold the land bridge far enough W to secure the N Crimea Canal (guaranteeing fresh water supply & irrigation to Crimea), plus the ports & entire coastline of the Sea of Azov, that is a significant addition to what they had before. It strengthens their hold on Crimea & allows the export of Russian grain & minerals via those Azov ports, rather than having to use Ukrainian ports. That would be a significant victory & could be spun as such to the Russian people.

The Ukrainians will never formally agree to that, but may tacitly accept it for the foreseeable future. with a cease fire & contested frozen conflict in place, while they recover & rearm to the point that their future as a nation is secure. If Ukraine is at peace, not a corrupt democracy, a EU member, defended by the US & other NATO nations, they'll provide a model for internal change in Russia, & more immediately -- Belarus, which would be the next nation to assert it's independence & depose it's corrupt dictator.

[MDlaxfan76]

This is EPIC ! Who needs NATO or the EU. Let's invite Ukraine to be our 51st state, if they'll all join the US military & fight on our side.

It's not looking like Putin will have much to celebrate on May 9th at this rate...won't stop him from claiming 'victory' nevertheless.

Interesting re the drones...the anti-ship missiles...how do we best help them further hit the supply lines into Donbas and the southern areas? It's the logistics that matter a lot...

I'm less sanguine about direct tank warfare, but sounds like there are ways to tilt the scales further for what had been assumed to be the underdogs.

I'm still not sure the Ukrainians can hold Donbas. It depends on what long range weapons they get in time (like artillery & MLRS) & the necessary targeting info to "shoot & scoot". What matters most is that their army stays intact to defend the rest of the country.

If the Russians hold the land bridge far enough W to secure the N Crimea Canal (guaranteeing fresh water supply & irrigation to Crimea), plus the ports & entire coastline of the Sea of Azov, that is a significant addition to what they had before. It strengthens their hold on Crimea & allows the export of Russian grain & minerals via those Azov ports, rather than having to use Ukrainian ports. That would be a significant victory & could be spun as such to the Russian people.

The Ukrainians will never formally agree to that, but may tacitly accept it for the foreseeable future. with a cease fire & contested frozen conflict in place, while they recover & rearm to the point that their future as a nation is secure. If Ukraine is at peace, not a corrupt democracy, a EU member, defended by the US & other NATO nations, they'll provide a model for internal change in Russia, & more immediately -- Belarus, which would be the next nation to assert it's independence & depose it's corrupt dictator.

I think Ukraine is ultimately going to join NATO and we should support that, calling Putin's bluff once and for all. Finland and Sweden may be first, but Ukraine is going to get in.

I also think the question is not whether the Ukrainians can hold Donbas, but rather whether and when they will push the Russians out.

Again, I think it's beyond time to stop imagining ways Putin can declare victory, but rather figure out how the Russian military will be thoroughly defeated and repelled from Ukraine. It's up to the Russian people as to whether Putin is deposed, but if he keeps sending Russian boys to die, it'll ultimately happen.

I think it's going to take at least a year for the Ukrainians to achieve the defeat of Russia, but it sure looks like the Russian military's decades of corruption and ill-training is proving to be very important in contrast to Ukraine's morale. Probably take at least that long as well to fully end the West's (Germany's) reliance on Russian gas...looks like the oil part may end this summer...but gas will take longer, probably. Putin may try to force the issue faster, but that's only going to Harden the West's resolve.

[old salt]

This is EPIC ! Who needs NATO or the EU. Let's invite Ukraine to be our 51st state, if they'll all join the US military & fight on our side.

It's not looking like Putin will have much to celebrate on May 9th at this rate...won't stop him from claiming 'victory' nevertheless.

Interesting re the drones...the anti-ship missiles...how do we best help them further hit the supply lines into Donbas and the southern areas? It's the logistics that matter a lot...

I'm less sanguine about direct tank warfare, but sounds like there are ways to tilt the scales further for what had been assumed to be the underdogs.

I'm still not sure the Ukrainians can hold Donbas. It depends on what long range weapons they get in time (like artillery & MLRS) & the necessary targeting info to "shoot & scoot". What matters most is that their army stays intact to defend the rest of the country.

If the Russians hold the land bridge far enough W to secure the N Crimea Canal (guaranteeing fresh water supply & irrigation to Crimea), plus the ports & entire coastline of the Sea of Azov, that is a significant addition to what they had before. It strengthens their hold on Crimea & allows the export of Russian grain & minerals via those Azov ports, rather than having to use Ukrainian ports. That would be a significant victory & could be spun as such to the Russian people.

The Ukrainians will never formally agree to that, but may tacitly accept it for the foreseeable future. with a cease fire & contested frozen conflict in place, while they recover & rearm to the point that their future as a nation is secure. If Ukraine is at peace, not a corrupt democracy, a EU member, defended by the US & other NATO nations, they'll provide a model for internal change in Russia, & more immediately -- Belarus, which would be the next nation to assert it's independence & depose it's corrupt dictator.

I think Ukraine is ultimately going to join NATO and we should support that, calling Putin's bluff once and for all. Finland and Sweden may be first, but Ukraine is going to get in.

I also think the question is not whether the Ukrainians can hold Donbas, but rather whether and when they will push the Russians out.

Again, I think it's beyond time to stop imagining ways Putin can declare victory, but rather figure out how the Russian military will be thoroughly defeated and repelled from Ukraine. It's up to the Russian people as to whether Putin is deposed, but if he keeps sending Russian boys to die, it'll ultimately happen.

I think it's going to take at least a year for the Ukrainians to achieve the defeat of Russia, but it sure looks like the Russian military's decades of corruption and ill-training is proving to be very important in contrast to Ukraine's morale. Probably take at least that long as well to fully end the West's (Germany's) reliance on Russian gas...looks like the oil part may end this summer...but gas will take longer, probably. Putin may try to force the issue faster, but that's only going to Harden the West's resolve.

Based on Ukraine's success to date, I'm not sure your optimism is warranted. This analysis lays out the challenges in the battle for the south & stresses why Odessa can't be allowed to fall. Neither am I confident that the EUroburghers have the staying power to bring about your hope for total military victory. Russia's early military failures will erode the EUros sense of urgency & weaken their resolve to achieve energy independence. .

https://www.hudson.org/research/17637-a ... in-ukraine

The Moskva was a capital ship & a major part of Russia's integrated air defense.
It's sinking is significant morale booster. It's also being exploited as propaganda by boosters in western media.
Contrast with the coverage of the fate of Ukraine's flagship. ...did you learn of this in our mass media ? NYT, WP, WSJ, CNN, MSNBC, FNC ?
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/4 ... n-scuttled
...or the rest of Ukraine's fleet of smaller vessels ?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_s ... ian_Navy_2

[MDlaxfan76]

This is EPIC ! Who needs NATO or the EU. Let's invite Ukraine to be our 51st state, if they'll all join the US military & fight on our side.

It's not looking like Putin will have much to celebrate on May 9th at this rate...won't stop him from claiming 'victory' nevertheless.

Interesting re the drones...the anti-ship missiles...how do we best help them further hit the supply lines into Donbas and the southern areas? It's the logistics that matter a lot...

I'm less sanguine about direct tank warfare, but sounds like there are ways to tilt the scales further for what had been assumed to be the underdogs.

I'm still not sure the Ukrainians can hold Donbas. It depends on what long range weapons they get in time (like artillery & MLRS) & the necessary targeting info to "shoot & scoot". What matters most is that their army stays intact to defend the rest of the country.

If the Russians hold the land bridge far enough W to secure the N Crimea Canal (guaranteeing fresh water supply & irrigation to Crimea), plus the ports & entire coastline of the Sea of Azov, that is a significant addition to what they had before. It strengthens their hold on Crimea & allows the export of Russian grain & minerals via those Azov ports, rather than having to use Ukrainian ports. That would be a significant victory & could be spun as such to the Russian people.

The Ukrainians will never formally agree to that, but may tacitly accept it for the foreseeable future. with a cease fire & contested frozen conflict in place, while they recover & rearm to the point that their future as a nation is secure. If Ukraine is at peace, not a corrupt democracy, a EU member, defended by the US & other NATO nations, they'll provide a model for internal change in Russia, & more immediately -- Belarus, which would be the next nation to assert it's independence & depose it's corrupt dictator.

I think Ukraine is ultimately going to join NATO and we should support that, calling Putin's bluff once and for all. Finland and Sweden may be first, but Ukraine is going to get in.

I also think the question is not whether the Ukrainians can hold Donbas, but rather whether and when they will push the Russians out.

Again, I think it's beyond time to stop imagining ways Putin can declare victory, but rather figure out how the Russian military will be thoroughly defeated and repelled from Ukraine. It's up to the Russian people as to whether Putin is deposed, but if he keeps sending Russian boys to die, it'll ultimately happen.

I think it's going to take at least a year for the Ukrainians to achieve the defeat of Russia, but it sure looks like the Russian military's decades of corruption and ill-training is proving to be very important in contrast to Ukraine's morale. Probably take at least that long as well to fully end the West's (Germany's) reliance on Russian gas...looks like the oil part may end this summer...but gas will take longer, probably. Putin may try to force the issue faster, but that's only going to Harden the West's resolve.

Based on Ukraine's success to date, I'm not sure your optimism is warranted. This analysis lays out the challenges in the battle for the south & stresses why Odessa can't be allowed to fall. Neither am I confident that the EUroburghers have the staying power to bring about your hope for total military victory. Russia's early military failures will erode the EUros sense of urgency & weaken their resolve to achieve energy independence. .

https://www.hudson.org/research/17637-a ... in-ukraine

The Moskva was a capital ship & a major part of Russia's integrated air defense.
It's sinking is significant morale booster. It's also being exploited as propaganda by boosters in western media.
Contrast with the coverage of the fate of Ukraine's flagship. ...did you learn of this in our mass media ? NYT, WP, WSJ, CNN, MSNBC, FNC ?
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/4 ... n-scuttled
...or the rest of Ukraine's fleet of smaller vessels ?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_s ... ian_Navy_2

Nope, the Ukrainians scuttling their fleet didn't get much coverage, but most of the news has been about Ukraine being battered at every turn, war atrocities committed against civilians, cities completely destroyed, so I don't think there's been a dearth of news about the desperate straits the Ukrainians have been facing.

I think you're quite mistaken about Europe's resolve, given the war atrocities, much more of which will be revealed in the coming weeks and months. The Germans are moving through a sea change in political view, the current government seen as dragging their feet (though with some good reason given challenge of extricating from Russian energy) but the commitment to eliminating dependence on Russian oil and gas is definitely happening, with major drops in purchases already and investments shifting fast. But it's a long way to getting there.

And I don't think Russia's military ineptitude will erode Europe's resolve, quite the opposite, given the atrocities and civilian bombardments. The potential complete repudiation of Russian aggression can be seen as within reach, given the right support for Ukraine. It'll take time, and certainly Putin will have the advantage of dictatorship to fight a long war of attrition, but meanwhile the stranglehold on the Russian economy will continue to deepen.

But yes, can't let Odessa fall. That would be disastrous. (I'd note that the Hudson analysis was back on March 7, prior to the Russian advance in the south toward Odessa being stymied and even reversed. and prior to this strike on the Russian fleet, the pull back of that fleet in response.)

And yeah, morale is the biggest weapon the Ukrainians have versus the Russians.

[CU88]

Contrast with the coverage of the fate of Ukraine's flagship. ...did you learn of this in our mass media ? NYT, WP, WSJ, CNN, MSNBC, FNC ?
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/4 ... n-scuttled
...or the rest of Ukraine's fleet of smaller vessels ?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_s ... ian_Navy_2

I am not sure of the "tone" of your commentary here, what are you trying to convey?

[Typical Lax Dad]

Contrast with the coverage of the fate of Ukraine's flagship. ...did you learn of this in our mass media ? NYT, WP, WSJ, CNN, MSNBC, FNC ?
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/4 ... n-scuttled
...or the rest of Ukraine's fleet of smaller vessels ?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_s ... ian_Navy_2

I am not sure of the "tone" of your commentary here, what are you trying to convey?

Sour grapes

[DocBarrister]

Contrast with the coverage of the fate of Ukraine's flagship. ...did you learn of this in our mass media ? NYT, WP, WSJ, CNN, MSNBC, FNC ?
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/4 ... n-scuttled
...or the rest of Ukraine's fleet of smaller vessels ?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_s ... ian_Navy_2

I am not sure of the "tone" of your commentary here, what are you trying to convey?

What “tone”? The pro-Putin, pro-Russia “tone”?

DocBarrister

[DocBarrister]

Official word from the Pentagon:

Ukrainian forces struck the Russian warship Moskva with two Neptune missiles, causing it to sink, a senior U.S. defense official said Friday. The confirmation comes after dueling reports in which Ukrainian forces claimed a successful attack on the flagship vessel in Russia’s Black Sea fleet while Russian officials said the ship had experienced a fire.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... e-updates/

DocBarrister

[old salt]

Contrast with the coverage of the fate of Ukraine's flagship. ...did you learn of this in our mass media ? NYT, WP, WSJ, CNN, MSNBC, FNC ?
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/4 ... n-scuttled
...or the rest of Ukraine's fleet of smaller vessels ?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_s ... ian_Navy_2

I am not sure of the "tone" of your commentary here, what are you trying to convey?

Don't rely solely on the US media alone to give you the full picture, especially if you seek detail.