All things CoronaVirus

The odds are excellent that you will leave this forum hating someone.

How many of your friends and family members have died of the Chinese Corona Virus?

0 people
45
64%
1 person.
10
14%
2 people.
3
4%
3 people.
5
7%
More.
7
10%
 
Total votes: 70

Farfromgeneva
Posts: 23841
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:53 am

Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Post by Farfromgeneva »

jhu72 wrote: Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:06 am
Peter Brown wrote: Fri Apr 03, 2020 9:55 am It's interesting to see who in America is hysterical and fearful, versus those who accept the cold hard facts of this virus (male, over 80, obese, underlying health conditions especially COPD and heart disease, poor diets).

If you read some posters here, we obviously will be skinning our cats and dogs in just a matter of weeks.

If you understand the human capacity for ingenuity, survival, and achievement, turbocharged by American freedom, you know that this shall pass relatively quickly.

Smart people are buying hard assets at fire-sale prices. Onward.
You mean opportunistic scumbags and grifters. Why should we expect anything different. :roll:
I haven’t heard of many distressed or fire sale transactions in CRE or NPLs from banks. Equipment and inventory maybe I’ll check with my restructuring and liquidation professional friends but there’s been very little transactional activity so far that I’ve heard of and half of my work is in distressed and high yield credit. It will come.

But I also don’t agree it’s scumbags. This is how the world works. Why liquidity is almost always undervalued except in extremely negative macro economic times when it’s too late to get liquid. Everybody who pissed money away on eating out more because they got 5-7% raises last few years rather than building a little more of a savings buffer has no complaint whatsoever. This excludes the true poor and destitute but all sorts of “middle class” households. Responsibility lies everywhere in most of these situations, certainly did in financial crisis. Difference there is the FIRE industries have more effectively executed on regulatory capture than other industries have.
Harvard University, out
University of Utah, in

I am going to get a 4.0 in damage.

(Afan jealous he didn’t do this first)
User avatar
Kismet
Posts: 5132
Joined: Sat Nov 02, 2019 6:42 pm

Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Post by Kismet »

Farfromgeneva wrote: Fri Apr 03, 2020 11:55 am
CU88 wrote: Fri Apr 03, 2020 8:17 am Doctors I would take medical advice from before Donald Trump:

Dr Suess
Dr Pepper
Dr Dre
Dr Demento
Dr Adam Bricker
Dr Hibbertt
"Dr" Nicholas Riviera
Dr Shrinker
Dr Doolittle
Doc Holliday
Doc Severinsen
Doc Dwarf
Hickory Dickory Dock
My sister's boat Dock

Major Frank Burns
What about George Clinton? Doctor of P Funk, Parliament Funkadelic!
Dr Who
or one of the seven dwarves who was also named Doc
Farfromgeneva
Posts: 23841
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:53 am

Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Post by Farfromgeneva »

Dr Dre? He did sell Beats to Apple for a small country’s GDP so he’s already a better businessman than our president.
Harvard University, out
University of Utah, in

I am going to get a 4.0 in damage.

(Afan jealous he didn’t do this first)
Trinity
Posts: 3513
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 8:14 am

Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Post by Trinity »

Dr. John
“I don’t take responsibility at all.” —Donald J Trump
User avatar
cradleandshoot
Posts: 15551
Joined: Fri Oct 05, 2018 4:42 pm

Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Post by cradleandshoot »

MDlaxfan76 wrote: Fri Apr 03, 2020 12:01 pm
cradleandshoot wrote: Fri Apr 03, 2020 11:57 am
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Fri Apr 03, 2020 11:47 am
6ftstick wrote: Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:50 am
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:47 am
6ftstick wrote: Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:35 am 3 interesting dates

February 7, 2020

February 19, 2020

February 25, 2020

Three democrat party primary debates. All after Trump closed the borders to Chinese New Year travelers.

How many questions from a concerned media about Corona virus.

What democrat candidate brought it up for discussion and debate.

If your guess is higher than ZERO. You're wrong
You know, someone whose job it is to tell the candidate (or POTUS) that a situation is coming of epic proportions needing planning and first actions immediately?
How about the people asking the freakin questions THE MSM.
They were asking those questions of those who actually got the intelligence briefings and the experts and officials put forward...you know, the folks in authority.

That said, it sure would have been interesting if they'd asked during the debates. But what a miserable structure that was for any considered discussion of most anything, short little responses and retorts to one another...
"They were asking those questions of those who actually got the intelligence briefings and the experts and officials put forward...you know, the folks in authority."

Thank you MD for my laugh of the day. You lost me after intelligence briefings and experts. :lol: :lol: :lol: The folks in authority here are about as knowledgeable as those bums on the corner with their homeless/hungry/godbless signs.
On that, we'd indeed agree, knuckleheads...though sure would have liked more Fauci early on, unmuzzled.
Problem is, no actual authority for the scientists.

When you again and again and again reject science and for that matter pretty much any expertise...
My wife is living with this reality every damn day MD. The science is in the infancy stage when it comes to understanding this virus. They do not have the slightest idea why some folks die with pre- existing conditions and other wise healthy people die albeit in smaller numbers. My wife has taken to heart the opinion of one her doctors at Rochester General. She has said we don't know what the f**k we are dealing with. This thing does not act like anything they have dealt with before. When it hits your lungs you are in big trouble no matter who you are. The best advice my wife gives me... wash your hands, don't touch your face, and stay away from people. The same damn advice we all get every day.
We don't make mistakes, we have happy accidents.
Bob Ross:
Peter Brown
Posts: 12878
Joined: Fri Mar 15, 2019 11:19 am

Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Post by Peter Brown »

Farfromgeneva wrote: Fri Apr 03, 2020 12:05 pm
jhu72 wrote: Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:06 am
Peter Brown wrote: Fri Apr 03, 2020 9:55 am It's interesting to see who in America is hysterical and fearful, versus those who accept the cold hard facts of this virus (male, over 80, obese, underlying health conditions especially COPD and heart disease, poor diets).

If you read some posters here, we obviously will be skinning our cats and dogs in just a matter of weeks.

If you understand the human capacity for ingenuity, survival, and achievement, turbocharged by American freedom, you know that this shall pass relatively quickly.

Smart people are buying hard assets at fire-sale prices. Onward.
You mean opportunistic scumbags and grifters. Why should we expect anything different. :roll:
I haven’t heard of many distressed or fire sale transactions in CRE or NPLs from banks. Equipment and inventory maybe I’ll check with my restructuring and liquidation professional friends but there’s been very little transactional activity so far that I’ve heard of and half of my work is in distressed and high yield credit. It will come.

But I also don’t agree it’s scumbags. This is how the world works. Why liquidity is almost always undervalued except in extremely negative macro economic times when it’s too late to get liquid. Everybody who ticked money away on eating out more because they got 5-7% raises last few years rather than building a little more of a savings buffer has no complaint whatsoever. This excludes the true poor and destitute but all sorts of “middle class” households. Responsibility lies everywhere in most of these situations, certainly did in financial crisis. Difference there is the FIRE industries have more effectively executed on regulatory capture than other industries have.


That is the correct take. +1

Also, I' m not a scumbag. :lol:

Also again, private jets are almost first assets to get reduced when there is an economic shock...trust me, I've been in this rodeo a few times now.
6ftstick
Posts: 3194
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2018 5:19 pm

Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Post by 6ftstick »

Media has begun the COVER YOUR rump phase.

Could all this misery have been avoided.

What?
On Tuesday, professors of medicine at Stanford University, Dr. Bendavid and Dr. Bhattacharya, released statistical data that shows the estimated death rates of the novel coronavirus, or COVID-19, are likely “orders of magnitude too high.”Models that have been used by government officials project that million of Americans, 2.2-4 million, will perish from COVID-19 if no precautions are taken, peaking in June. But after looking at data samples from places like Wuhan, China, where the virus originated, hard-hit northeast Italy, Iceland, and the United States, our nation may be looking at a .01 death rate, which is a ten-fold lower death rate than that of the flu and equating to some 20,000-40,000 deaths total, the study found.

Experts, Trump’s advisers doubt White House’s 240,000 coronavirus deaths estimate
by William Wan, Josh Dawsey, Ashley Parker and Joel Achenbach, Washington Post, Updated: April 3, 2020- 6:26 AM

What? Who developed the FN model

https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronav ... 00403.html

What?
Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
https://www.dailywire.com/news/epidemio ... ises-model
User avatar
ChairmanOfTheBoard
Posts: 967
Joined: Tue Jan 30, 2018 8:40 pm
Location: Having a beer with CWBJ in Helsinki, Finland

Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Post by ChairmanOfTheBoard »

There are 29,413,039 corporations in America; but only one Chairman of the Board.
Farfromgeneva
Posts: 23841
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:53 am

Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Post by Farfromgeneva »

Peter Brown wrote: Fri Apr 03, 2020 12:24 pm
Farfromgeneva wrote: Fri Apr 03, 2020 12:05 pm
jhu72 wrote: Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:06 am
Peter Brown wrote: Fri Apr 03, 2020 9:55 am It's interesting to see who in America is hysterical and fearful, versus those who accept the cold hard facts of this virus (male, over 80, obese, underlying health conditions especially COPD and heart disease, poor diets).

If you read some posters here, we obviously will be skinning our cats and dogs in just a matter of weeks.

If you understand the human capacity for ingenuity, survival, and achievement, turbocharged by American freedom, you know that this shall pass relatively quickly.

Smart people are buying hard assets at fire-sale prices. Onward.
You mean opportunistic scumbags and grifters. Why should we expect anything different. :roll:
I haven’t heard of many distressed or fire sale transactions in CRE or NPLs from banks. Equipment and inventory maybe I’ll check with my restructuring and liquidation professional friends but there’s been very little transactional activity so far that I’ve heard of and half of my work is in distressed and high yield credit. It will come.

But I also don’t agree it’s scumbags. This is how the world works. Why liquidity is almost always undervalued except in extremely negative macro economic times when it’s too late to get liquid. Everybody who ticked money away on eating out more because they got 5-7% raises last few years rather than building a little more of a savings buffer has no complaint whatsoever. This excludes the true poor and destitute but all sorts of “middle class” households. Responsibility lies everywhere in most of these situations, certainly did in financial crisis. Difference there is the FIRE industries have more effectively executed on regulatory capture than other industries have.


That is the correct take. +1

Also, I' m not a scumbag. :lol:

Also again, private jets are almost first assets to get reduced when there is an economic shock...trust me, I've been in this rodeo a few times now.
Private jets = conspicuous consumption. Doesn’t reflect broader distress. I’d imagine some yacht sales have occurred but not sure with depreciation and an unclear future how much of a fire sale it is. Worked on a $45mm credit (group of loans) to a mid sized boat manufacturer in SC and their bank had increasingly loosed terms the past few years, taking the debt to non-recourse, dividend recap loan to owner, etc. have to assume that business and the bank associated have problems now but the bank could’ve maintained certain protections had they of chosen to ho la the line.
Harvard University, out
University of Utah, in

I am going to get a 4.0 in damage.

(Afan jealous he didn’t do this first)
seacoaster
Posts: 8866
Joined: Thu Aug 02, 2018 4:36 pm

Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Post by seacoaster »

seacoaster
Posts: 8866
Joined: Thu Aug 02, 2018 4:36 pm

Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Post by seacoaster »

Uh oh; maybe they just forgot?

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/03/politics ... index.html

"Washington (CNN)Two top administration officials last year listed the threat of a pandemic as an issue that greatly worried them, undercutting President Donald Trump's repeated claims that the coronavirus pandemic was an unforeseen problem.

Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar and Tim Morrison, then a special assistant to the President and senior director for weapons of mass destruction and biodefense on the National Security Council, made the comments at the BioDefense Summit in April 2019.

"Of course, the thing that people ask: 'What keeps you most up at night in the biodefense world?' Pandemic flu, of course. I think everyone in this room probably shares that concern," Azar said, before listing off efforts to mitigate the impact of flu outbreaks.

The Trump administration is facing scrutiny over its preparations for the coronavirus pandemic and its slow response to provide states and cities assistance in testing kits and personal protective equipment. The 2019 summit, hosted by the assistant secretary for preparedness and response in the Department of Health and Human Services to "discuss and solicit input on implementing the National Biodefense Strategy," offers insights into early awareness of the potential for a pandemic threat.

Transcripts of Azar's and Morrison's comments at the summit, which have not been previously reported on, are available on the HHS website.
President Donald Trump has repeatedly said no one predicted a pandemic crisis like the one caused by coronavirus.
"Nobody knew there'd be a pandemic or an epidemic of this proportion," Trump said March 19 in comments in the Rose Garden. "Nobody has ever seen anything like this before." The crisis is "an unforeseen problem" that "came out of nowhere," Trump said on March 6. "We're having to fix a problem that, four weeks ago, nobody ever thought would be a problem," he said on March 11. "It's something that nobody expected," he said again on March 14. "Nobody would have ever thought a thing like this could have happened," he added on March 26th.

The White House defended the President's comments in a statement, saying he had shown a "great commitment" to global health security.
"It is not inconsistent to acknowledge the threat posed by pandemics and posture the government to respond, and also acknowledge that this is a new or never seen before virus that came out of nowhere and was initially covered up by the Chinese Communist Party," a senior administration official told CNN.

Health and Human Services did not respond to a request for comment on Azar's remarks.

At the 2019 summit, Azar also said, "It's a cardinal rule of leadership that you have to have accountability, which means picking a leader, and that's a leadership lesson well understood by President Trump, who has a particular interest not just in our national security, but in preparedness for biodefense in particular."

Morrison said during his speech that he prepared for his appearance at the conference by turning to the "The Great Influenza," a book on the "Spanish Flu" pandemic of 1918. "When people ask me what am I really worried about, it's always the thing we're not thinking about," Morrison said. "The thing we're not prepared for that we should be. And when we were working on the Biodefense Strategy, we started thinking a little bit about what would we likely confront, what's likely to come next?" Morrison then described the impact of the 1918 pandemic, noting in raw numbers it killed "more people than any other outbreak of disease in human history."

"So when people ask me what keeps me up at night, it's issues like that," he added.

A national security presidential memorandum ordered in September 2018 placed the HHS secretary in charge of coordinating the National Biodefense Strategy across the administration, including the White House's National Security Council. At the end of January 2020, the White House created the coronavirus task force to be led by HHS Secretary Azar. Nearly a month later, the President appointed Vice President Mike Pence to become the new leader of the task force.

Morrison, a longtime Republican staffer, left the Trump administration in October 2019. He notably testified in the impeachment inquiry of Trump last fall, telling House impeachment investigators that he was told Trump wanted a top Ukrainian official to announce an investigation that would help the President politically before US security aid to Ukraine would be released.
He is currently a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, a conservative think tank.
In an email to CNN, Morrison defended the Trump administration's preparations for a pandemic, and heavily criticized China's handling of the coronavirus outbreak.

Morrison wrote the Trump administration was "highly active in drafting the strategy" to prepare for pandemics and "already very engaged in dealing with the epidemic of Ebola in the Democratic Republic of Congo (which was ultimately defeated)."

Morrison also blamed the Chinese Communist Party "work[ing] so hard to conceal from the Chinese people and the world the origins of the virus and the extent of its spread, costing the rest of the world months of response time, and compromising the independence of the WHO. We expected the CCP would have learned from its mistakes in 2003 during the outbreak of SARS. Even now, no one believes the numbers being released by the CCP."
seacoaster
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Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Post by seacoaster »

Peter Brown
Posts: 12878
Joined: Fri Mar 15, 2019 11:19 am

Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Post by Peter Brown »

Farfromgeneva wrote: Fri Apr 03, 2020 12:47 pm Private jets = conspicuous consumption. Doesn’t reflect broader distress. I’d imagine some yacht sales have occurred but not sure with depreciation and an unclear future how much of a fire sale it is. Worked on a $45mm credit (group of loans) to a mid sized boat manufacturer in SC and their bank had increasingly loosed terms the past few years, taking the debt to non-recourse, dividend recap loan to owner, etc. have to assume that business and the bank associated have problems now but the bank could’ve maintained certain protections had they of chosen to ho la the line.


You actually sound like one of the more intelligent posters here...praying you're not a Dem, but if so, that's okay; with age comes wisdom. :lol:

Your reply has me thinking. The private jet consumer (owners, not charter, though I suspect there is overlap) is divided imo in two: the uber-wealthy with almost unlimited liquidity even in bad times, and those that want to be. The broader economy seems to never affect the uber-wealthy, but if the economy sneezes, the aspirational (second group) seem to be first to feel the effects.

In 2000 and 2008, there was a 50% reduction in price for sub-Tier 1 level private jets (Tier 1 is like a G650, Challenger 350; Falcon 2000lxs: perfect planes for their missions, and they hold their value fairly well). Tier 1 planes do not depreciate half as much as Tier 2 and below. Tier 2 and below, brand new out of the box and flying home, knock 25% off the retail price you just paid. In an economic downturn, these unattractive assets are nothing but money-burns; the FAA mandates time items whether the Dow is at 30,000 or 3,000. And those items ain't cheap. And they keep coming.

If your wallet can barely afford the burn in good times, your wallet REALLY can't afford the burn in bad times.

An Embraer Legacy 600 is an unusual plane; was considered Tier 2 by most until last year, when it's maintenance costs began to look reasonable relative to other planes in its size category. All sorts of other variables go into pricing these things (they stopped manufacturing a few years ago), but maintenance (this would be the FAA-mandated items) is #1.

If you got the cash, now's the time to 'kick engines'. You're helping someone else out.

Again, not a scumbag. :lol:
Laxgunea
Posts: 622
Joined: Fri Feb 15, 2019 4:00 pm

Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Post by Laxgunea »

cradleandshoot wrote: Fri Apr 03, 2020 12:23 pm
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Fri Apr 03, 2020 12:01 pm
cradleandshoot wrote: Fri Apr 03, 2020 11:57 am
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Fri Apr 03, 2020 11:47 am
6ftstick wrote: Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:50 am
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:47 am
6ftstick wrote: Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:35 am 3 interesting dates

February 7, 2020

February 19, 2020

February 25, 2020

Three democrat party primary debates. All after Trump closed the borders to Chinese New Year travelers.

How many questions from a concerned media about Corona virus.

What democrat candidate brought it up for discussion and debate.

If your guess is higher than ZERO. You're wrong
You know, someone whose job it is to tell the candidate (or POTUS) that a situation is coming of epic proportions needing planning and first actions immediately?
How about the people asking the freakin questions THE MSM.
They were asking those questions of those who actually got the intelligence briefings and the experts and officials put forward...you know, the folks in authority.

That said, it sure would have been interesting if they'd asked during the debates. But what a miserable structure that was for any considered discussion of most anything, short little responses and retorts to one another...
"They were asking those questions of those who actually got the intelligence briefings and the experts and officials put forward...you know, the folks in authority."

Thank you MD for my laugh of the day. You lost me after intelligence briefings and experts. :lol: :lol: :lol: The folks in authority here are about as knowledgeable as those bums on the corner with their homeless/hungry/godbless signs.
On that, we'd indeed agree, knuckleheads...though sure would have liked more Fauci early on, unmuzzled.
Problem is, no actual authority for the scientists.

When you again and again and again reject science and for that matter pretty much any expertise...
My wife is living with this reality every damn day MD. The science is in the infancy stage when it comes to understanding this virus. They do not have the slightest idea why some folks die with pre- existing conditions and other wise healthy people die albeit in smaller numbers. My wife has taken to heart the opinion of one her doctors at Rochester General. She has said we don't know what the f**k we are dealing with. This thing does not act like anything they have dealt with before. When it hits your lungs you are in big trouble no matter who you are. The best advice my wife gives me... wash your hands, don't touch your face, and stay away from people. The same damn advice we all get every day.
Agreed on best advice, but would add stop smoking/vaping, drop weight, eat well, sleep enough, and take your insulin and other meds. Plus, what's the harm of a mask at Wegs?
jhu72
Posts: 14484
Joined: Wed Sep 19, 2018 12:52 pm

Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Post by jhu72 »

6ftstick wrote: Fri Apr 03, 2020 12:37 pm Media has begun the COVER YOUR rump phase.

Could all this misery have been avoided.

What?
On Tuesday, professors of medicine at Stanford University, Dr. Bendavid and Dr. Bhattacharya, released statistical data that shows the estimated death rates of the novel coronavirus, or COVID-19, are likely “orders of magnitude too high.”Models that have been used by government officials project that million of Americans, 2.2-4 million, will perish from COVID-19 if no precautions are taken, peaking in June. But after looking at data samples from places like Wuhan, China, where the virus originated, hard-hit northeast Italy, Iceland, and the United States, our nation may be looking at a .01 death rate, which is a ten-fold lower death rate than that of the flu and equating to some 20,000-40,000 deaths total, the study found.

Experts, Trump’s advisers doubt White House’s 240,000 coronavirus deaths estimate
by William Wan, Josh Dawsey, Ashley Parker and Joel Achenbach, Washington Post, Updated: April 3, 2020- 6:26 AM

What? Who developed the FN model

https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronav ... 00403.html

What?
Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
https://www.dailywire.com/news/epidemio ... ises-model

So how would you have "avoided all this"? I am dying to hear this.
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jhu72
Posts: 14484
Joined: Wed Sep 19, 2018 12:52 pm

Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Post by jhu72 »

Peter Brown wrote: Fri Apr 03, 2020 1:24 pm
Farfromgeneva wrote: Fri Apr 03, 2020 12:47 pm Private jets = conspicuous consumption. Doesn’t reflect broader distress. I’d imagine some yacht sales have occurred but not sure with depreciation and an unclear future how much of a fire sale it is. Worked on a $45mm credit (group of loans) to a mid sized boat manufacturer in SC and their bank had increasingly loosed terms the past few years, taking the debt to non-recourse, dividend recap loan to owner, etc. have to assume that business and the bank associated have problems now but the bank could’ve maintained certain protections had they of chosen to ho la the line.


You actually sound like one of the more intelligent posters here...praying you're not a Dem, but if so, that's okay; with age comes wisdom. :lol:

Your reply has me thinking. The private jet consumer (owners, not charter, though I suspect there is overlap) is divided imo in two: the uber-wealthy with almost unlimited liquidity even in bad times, and those that want to be. The broader economy seems to never affect the uber-wealthy, but if the economy sneezes, the aspirational (second group) seem to be first to feel the effects.

In 2000 and 2008, there was a 50% reduction in price for sub-Tier 1 level private jets (Tier 1 is like a G650, Challenger 350; Falcon 2000lxs: perfect planes for their missions, and they hold their value fairly well). Tier 1 planes do not depreciate half as much as Tier 2 and below. Tier 2 and below, brand new out of the box and flying home, knock 25% off the retail price you just paid. In an economic downturn, these unattractive assets are nothing but money-burns; the FAA mandates time items whether the Dow is at 30,000 or 3,000. And those items ain't cheap. And they keep coming.

If your wallet can barely afford the burn in good times, your wallet REALLY can't afford the burn in bad times.

An Embraer Legacy 600 is an unusual plane; was considered Tier 2 by most until last year, when it's maintenance costs began to look reasonable relative to other planes in its size category. All sorts of other variables go into pricing these things (they stopped manufacturing a few years ago), but maintenance (this would be the FAA-mandated items) is #1.

If you got the cash, now's the time to 'kick engines'. You're helping someone else out.

Again, not a scumbag. :lol:
So you just hangout with them?? :lol:
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Farfromgeneva
Posts: 23841
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:53 am

Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Post by Farfromgeneva »

Peter Brown wrote: Fri Apr 03, 2020 1:24 pm
Farfromgeneva wrote: Fri Apr 03, 2020 12:47 pm Private jets = conspicuous consumption. Doesn’t reflect broader distress. I’d imagine some yacht sales have occurred but not sure with depreciation and an unclear future how much of a fire sale it is. Worked on a $45mm credit (group of loans) to a mid sized boat manufacturer in SC and their bank had increasingly loosed terms the past few years, taking the debt to non-recourse, dividend recap loan to owner, etc. have to assume that business and the bank associated have problems now but the bank could’ve maintained certain protections had they of chosen to ho la the line.


You actually sound like one of the more intelligent posters here...praying you're not a Dem, but if so, that's okay; with age comes wisdom. :lol:

Your reply has me thinking. The private jet consumer (owners, not charter, though I suspect there is overlap) is divided imo in two: the uber-wealthy with almost unlimited liquidity even in bad times, and those that want to be. The broader economy seems to never affect the uber-wealthy, but if the economy sneezes, the aspirational (second group) seem to be first to feel the effects.

In 2000 and 2008, there was a 50% reduction in price for sub-Tier 1 level private jets (Tier 1 is like a G650, Challenger 350; Falcon 2000lxs: perfect planes for their missions, and they hold their value fairly well). Tier 1 planes do not depreciate half as much as Tier 2 and below. Tier 2 and below, brand new out of the box and flying home, knock 25% off the retail price you just paid. In an economic downturn, these unattractive assets are nothing but money-burns; the FAA mandates time items whether the Dow is at 30,000 or 3,000. And those items ain't cheap. And they keep coming.

If your wallet can barely afford the burn in good times, your wallet REALLY can't afford the burn in bad times.

An Embraer Legacy 600 is an unusual plane; was considered Tier 2 by most until last year, when it's maintenance costs began to look reasonable relative to other planes in its size category. All sorts of other variables go into pricing these things (they stopped manufacturing a few years ago), but maintenance (this would be the FAA-mandated items) is #1.

If you got the cash, now's the time to 'kick engines'. You're helping someone else out.

Again, not a scumbag. :lol:
When I moved south my wife’s grandfather dropped the old: “son of it flies, floats or f...s you are better off renting than owning. Trust me I’ve owned all three” (not sure what kind of plane he had, both boat and plane were before my time, but I’ve seen pics of the 54’ boat they had, not sure if that qualifies as a yacht but it had four bedrooms). He more or less was a top exec at what is now Fluor Corp (president of what at the time was known at Fluor Daniels, started at a predecessor called Daniels Construction in I guess the 60s, his dad ran a textile business called EJ Cohn back when Greenville was all about textile manufacturing)
Harvard University, out
University of Utah, in

I am going to get a 4.0 in damage.

(Afan jealous he didn’t do this first)
jhu72
Posts: 14484
Joined: Wed Sep 19, 2018 12:52 pm

Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Post by jhu72 »

seacoaster wrote: Fri Apr 03, 2020 1:14 pm Corona-Federalism? Fun!!

https://twitter.com/jgeltzer/status/1246086629669961735
Ain't that the truth.
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Trinity
Posts: 3513
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 8:14 am

Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Post by Trinity »

https://www.politico.com/states/florida ... mp-1271172

Florida unemployment is a sh*t sandwich left by Scott for DeSantis. Hard to apply for, Max is $275 a week.
“I don’t take responsibility at all.” —Donald J Trump
Trinity
Posts: 3513
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 8:14 am

Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Post by Trinity »

“The Trump administration just changed its language about the Strategic National Stockpile on an HHS website to jibe with Jared Kushner's claim that this isn't for the states.”

Aaron Blake, Washington Post
“I don’t take responsibility at all.” —Donald J Trump
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