The Nation's Financial Condition

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a fan
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Joined: Mon Aug 06, 2018 9:05 pm

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by a fan »

Farfromgeneva wrote: Fri Mar 12, 2021 7:08 am Would like to think folks could make due with less but given the obsession folks have with new big houses on postage stamp lots even when they’re hardly above builder grade I’m sure people will upsize when they can afford to do so.

I don’t believe work from home is this permanent condition though.
I think it will be for top companies where on-premise work isn't needed.

if you're top talent----and one company allows you to work from home, and the other doesn't...which would you choose?

Easy call, if you ask me.
Farfromgeneva
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Farfromgeneva »

I prefer working with people but also spent half of my employer work life or more on trading desks or capital markets units which share space and you get a ton of synergies and leverage mental tennis. Cubes are the same. It’s only people who have singular offices that gain less benefit by working with colleagues.
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
Farfromgeneva
Posts: 23818
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:53 am

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Farfromgeneva »

I prefer working with people but also spent half of my employer work life or more on trading desks or capital markets units which share space and you get a ton of synergies and leverage the mental tennis. Cubes are the same. It’s only people who have singular offices that gain less benefit by working with colleagues.
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
PizzaSnake
Posts: 5297
Joined: Tue Mar 05, 2019 8:36 pm

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by PizzaSnake »

Lotsa funny money washing around out there.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/13/tech ... e=Homepage
"There is nothing more difficult and more dangerous to carry through than initiating changes. One makes enemies of those who prospered under the old order, and only lukewarm support from those who would prosper under the new."
Farfromgeneva
Posts: 23818
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:53 am

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Farfromgeneva »

Liquidity premium has been driven to zero, hence Greensill and SoftBank and why a 1.6% ten year crushes tech stocks because god forbid you have to discount 10yr out profits by 11% instead of 10%.

Too much money in the system. Good for my dad and my card collection. Gots plenty of tobacco cards through the play ball and topps only era. Mostly gotten rid of anything past when Donruss and Fleer showed up.
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
PizzaSnake
Posts: 5297
Joined: Tue Mar 05, 2019 8:36 pm

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by PizzaSnake »

Things aren’t going to get better if the .5% keep getting away with this tax evasion. We’re going to get like Italy where everyone cheats on their taxes.

“After getting information from another whistle-blower in 2007, the U.S. government began a well-publicized campaign to weed out tax dodgers with Swiss bank accounts. But while UBS, which had also been accused of helping rich Americans commit tax fraud, was forced to give up the names of about 4,500 U.S.-linked accounts following an I.R.S. summons, Credit Suisse got off more lightly. By early 2014, before it struck its plea deal that May, Credit Suisse had only divulged information on some 238 out of 22,000 U.S. clients.”

I guess Leona was correct. "We don't pay taxes; only the little people pay taxes"


https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/13/busi ... e=Homepage
"There is nothing more difficult and more dangerous to carry through than initiating changes. One makes enemies of those who prospered under the old order, and only lukewarm support from those who would prosper under the new."
Farfromgeneva
Posts: 23818
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:53 am

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Farfromgeneva »

PizzaSnake wrote: Sat Mar 13, 2021 9:33 pm Things aren’t going to get better if the .5% keep getting away with this tax evasion. We’re going to get like Italy where everyone cheats on their taxes.

“After getting information from another whistle-blower in 2007, the U.S. government began a well-publicized campaign to weed out tax dodgers with Swiss bank accounts. But while UBS, which had also been accused of helping rich Americans commit tax fraud, was forced to give up the names of about 4,500 U.S.-linked accounts following an I.R.S. summons, Credit Suisse got off more lightly. By early 2014, before it struck its plea deal that May, Credit Suisse had only divulged information on some 238 out of 22,000 U.S. clients.”

I guess Leona was correct. "We don't pay taxes; only the little people pay taxes"


https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/13/busi ... e=Homepage
Greece is the worst I ever heard of in the developed world (or whatever nomenclature would be your preference) on tax evasion.
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
Farfromgeneva
Posts: 23818
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:53 am

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Farfromgeneva »

Too much Liquidity in the system.

Sent this note and story to a friend who owns around 1.5mm sq ft of solid asset class B industrial assets in great locations in the SE today. (Example would be a 108,000sq Ft asset 0.5mi from a commerce GA exit off I85 where a new medical facility and also a huge LG lithium battery plant facility are being constructed and got the tire company owner seller sign a 2yr lease at way above market rents subsidizing his time to re-let the asset, his general business model)

——

There was once, in the very recent past, a (misguided? I say yes) strategy to going big (“or going home” so to speak) in that you could crowd out competition and create a monopoly where the government wasn’t looking. The idea, taught to me in a 2004-2095 HBS case study in grad school on EBay, is that one can create a virtuous feedback loop, the binary opposite of a negative feedback loop, by generating scale on both sides of a digital platform that only scrape fees (rent seeking or arbitrage of price discovery breakdowns or illiquid, idiosyncratic markets) with no to little capital investment or tangible balance sheet assets to require a return from.

If size no longer matters than the entire VC ecosystem has become complete BS and no different than Atlanta local, Westminster backsalppers doing real estate deals with each other. I.e. a closed system that relies wholly on mark to model and detached from cash or real economics. If this is true then I don’t know what’s next but I can’t be good. Size and/or profitability has to matter. Throw both out and you have nothing.

https://www.axios.com/stripe-digital-pa ... fd9ed.html
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
seacoaster
Posts: 8866
Joined: Thu Aug 02, 2018 4:36 pm

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by seacoaster »

Pretty interesting development:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-polic ... -stimulus/

"Twenty-one Republican state attorneys general on Tuesday threatened to take action against the Biden administration over its new $1.9 trillion coronavirus stimulus law, decrying it for imposing “unprecedented and unconstitutional” limits on their states’ ability to lower taxes.

The letter marks one of the first major political and legal salvos against the relief package since President Biden signed it last week — evincing the sustained Republican opposition that the White House faces as it implements the signature element of the president’s economic policy agenda.

The attorneys general take issue with a $350 billion pot of money set aside under the stimulus, known as the American Rescue Plan, to help cash-strapped cities, counties and states pay for the costs of the pandemic. Congressional lawmakers opted to restrict states from tapping these federal dollars to finance local tax cuts.

Lawmakers included the provision to ensure Washington isn’t footing the bill on behalf of states that later take deliberate steps to reduce their revenue. But the guardrails frustrated many GOP leaders, who said in a letter to the Treasury Department that the law’s vague wording threatens to interfere with states in good financial standing that sought to provide “such tax relief with or without the prospect of COVID-19 relief funds.”

The attorneys general from Arizona, Georgia, West Virginia and 18 other states called on the Biden administration to make it clear that they can proceed with some of their plans to cut taxes, including those that predate the stimulus, in a seven-page missive sent to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Tuesday. Otherwise, they said, the relief law “would represent the greatest invasion of state sovereignty by Congress in the history of our Republic” — and they threatened to take “appropriate additional action” in response.

Some state officials are already discussing a possible lawsuit, according to a person familiar with the matter who was not authorized to discuss the private deliberations.

Congress adopts $1.9 trillion stimulus, securing first major win for Biden

A White House official late Tuesday said Congress had acted appropriately in seeking to stipulate conditions on the federal stimulus funding, emphasizing in a statement the law “does not say that states cannot cut taxes at all.” Rather, the official said, it “simply instructs them not to use that money to offset net revenues lost if the state chooses to cut taxes.”

“So if a state does cut taxes without replacing that revenue in some other way, then the state must pay back to the federal government pandemic relief funds up to the amount of the lost revenue,” the official added.


The legal wrangling reflects early, widespread confusion — and the lingering partisan schisms — that surround one of the more contentious elements of the $1.9 trillion stimulus law. It only adds to the political challenges facing the Biden administration as it begins to dole out aid under one of the largest, most complicated economic rescue packages in U.S. history.

This week, the president tapped Gene Sperling, a former top White House aide, to oversee the government’s efforts to bring the stimulus online. And Biden joined Vice President Harris on Tuesday to start selling the new law to voters nationwide as part of a broader messaging tour.

White House press secretary Jen Psaki said Monday that the stimulus set aside $350 billion in aid for local governments to help “cops, firefighters and other essential employees at work and employed,” adding at her daily briefing it “wasn’t intended to cut taxes.”

In securing the funds, the White House and members of Congress sought to blunt the impact of significant revenue shortfalls in cities, counties and more than half of all U.S. states. State and local governments have shed 1.3 million jobs since the pandemic began last year — a loss of more than 1 in 20 government positions, according to a Washington Post analysis of employment data.

Why some state and local governments are desperate for more stimulus aid

While the losses did not result in the early doomsday scenarios, leaving cities and states financially insolvent, the mixed data and political rancor still muddied the debate on Capitol Hill — repeatedly preventing lawmakers from reaching a deal on the aid until late December.

This year, Biden ultimately sought — and lawmakers later approved — $350 billion in new stimulus spending to help local governments steady their finances and pay for the costs of responding to the crisis. The funds drew bipartisan support from mayors, county leaders and governors, even though Republicans in Congress blasted it as wasteful spending — and falsely contended that it only benefited Democratic-led states.

The aid, however, isn’t unfettered. Local governments can use the dollars to cover the costs of their first responders, provide enhanced pay for essential employees and even make improvements to local infrastructure. But states cannot use the money to address their rising pension costs, nor can they appear to take the dollars and then cut taxes, essentially tapping Washington’s help to make up for any lost revenue either directly or indirectly.

With congressional approval imminent, Biden prepares to send checks, but big stimulus challenges loom

The rules as written could complicate plans in nearly a dozen states where Republicans in control of the governorship or legislature have eyed or already adopted proposals to cut taxes, according to Richard Auxier, a state and local budget analyst at the Tax Policy Center, a nonpartisan think tank. That includes Mississippi, Montana, South Carolina, West Virginia and Arkansas, where better-than-expected revenue has led policymakers to weigh new rounds of income tax cuts.

Legislators in other GOP-held states have explored modest measures, such as a plan to curb property taxes in Idaho and to reduce business taxes in New Hampshire, that similarly may be incompatible with the stimulus rules. Even a bipartisan attempt to approve rebates for low-income families in Maryland threatens to imperil local governments’ ability to take advantage of a key portion of the relief package under a strict reading of the stimulus law.

“The more you study it, the more unclear it becomes,” said John L. Valentine, the tax commissioner of Utah, where lawmakers earlier this month finalized a series of tax cuts.

Top Republican attorneys general similarly blasted the law’s uncertainty in their letter to Yellen sent Tuesday. The GOP leaders said the vague wording of the law could essentially “prohibit tax cuts or relief of any stripe, even if wholly unrelated to and independent of the availability of relief funds.” They demanded the Treasury Department to explain its implementation plans by March 23.

In Washington, meanwhile, Idaho’s two GOP senators introduced a bill this week that would eliminate the tax restriction from the American Rescue Plan. Sen. Mike Crapo (R) said in a statement that the stimulus “infringes on states’ authority to design their own fiscal policies, and invites partisan politics into federal and state relations.”
Farfromgeneva
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Farfromgeneva »

Losing Dollars By Pinching Pennies: When Short-Termism Goes Bad
Corporate America has a way of costing itself big by not adequately preparing for trouble. That lesson has been learned the hard way—again—over the past year.

By Charley Grant
March 19, 2021 11:00 am ET

This time a year ago, Navin Katyal’s phone wouldn’t stop ringing.

The head of Pfizer’s PFE -0.68% North American hospital unit, which sells 165 different medications like antibiotics, analgesics and sedatives for patients on ventilators, was receiving the same message from his thousands of customers as Covid-19 spread: We need more medicine, and we need it now. “Unprecedented demand all at once,” he said to me this week. To respond properly to the crisis, Pfizer had to crank up production but also determine whose requirements were most urgent. “Just as with products like toilet paper, we had to sort out who was using the drugs and who was stocking up,” he said.

Pfizer is hardly the only company to be forced to figure it out on the fly: The Wall Street Journal reported earlier this week that supply chain woes have mounted world-wide for all sorts of businesses, thanks to the pandemic and other disruptions. The world is learning that a just-in-time inventory system and a short-term focus on maximizing return on investment is no match for a restive Mother Nature.

Mr. Katyal’s unit sells items that carry low profit margins, but no one doubts their importance after the pandemic. The emergency ramp-up of those products was a success: It was able to quadruple normal production rates of nine drugs that were in especially high demand. But for its customers, it was too late to avoid the damage. No stockpiles of essential medicines or personal protective equipment for medical staff made the early stages of the pandemic deadlier and more disruptive than it otherwise might have been.

If the extra deaths weren’t bad enough, the situation also wreaked financial havoc for hospitals, which further impacted patient care. Suddenly, elective surgeries like hip replacements were too risky to perform for many hospitals, and a key profit center was lost. Medical equipment with seven-figure price tags was mothballed for want of small-ticket items like masks, gloves and gowns.

If only public health disruptions were the only sort that businesses have to worry about. Severe winter weather in Texas last month froze generators’ water intake facilities and knocked out power for days, snarling local economic activity in the process. Utilities were caught off guard by the weather, even though such extremes aren’t entirely new. In a business world where maximizing return on investment has long been the highest priority, corporate America has a way of costing itself big by not adequately preparing for trouble.

SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS
Are companies incentivized improperly?

So why do similar mistakes keep playing out? In the case of Texas, strategist Michele Wucker points out that the massive financial losses are distributed among homeowners, renters and businesses that need a reliable grid to function. Those entities didn’t have a say in whether equipment should be winterized. “Businesses are basically being subsidized for taking unwise risk when the consequences of bad decisions fall mainly on customers and taxpayers,” said Ms. Wucker, author of the new book You Are What You Risk: The New Art and Science of Navigating an Uncertain World. The end result, she told me this week, is that the benefits of risk taking are privatized, while the consequences of bad decisions can be socialized. The short-termism that Wall Street often demands of CEOs certainly doesn’t help.

While that explanation is clear, its implications are worrying: after all, bad incentives are much more difficult to fix than they are to identify.

As for hospital shortages, things aren’t as simple as executives failing to prepare for trouble, explains Mr. Katyal. After all, they have significant cost pressures of their own. Bulk contracting can help hospitals use collective buying power to bring down expenses, but that has a downside: A 2019 report from the Food and Drug Administration highlighted a lack of financial incentives to maximize production of certain drugs, coupled with contracts that could reset prices for manufacturers without warning. “Contracts should ensure that manufacturers earn sustainable...returns on their investment in launching or continuing to market prescription drugs, especially older generic drugs that remain important elements of the medical armamentarium.”

Clearly, there is value in fixing the next societal pressure point before it bursts, not after. At least some management teams are wide awake. For instance, scientists at Genentech and parent company Roche are working to develop new classes of antibiotics to keep up with the growing threat of antibiotic resistance. “So much of our practice of modern medicine requires good infection control,” explained Genentech vice president and staff scientist Man-Wah Tan; basic dental procedures and routine surgeries could eventually become too dangerous to perform were the problem left unchecked.

Discovering new antibiotics isn’t the only hurdle: Figuring out how to incentivize more development is also a challenge. After all, a new antibiotic that can tackle drug-resistant infection should be used sparingly in order to preserve its useful life, according to John Young, head of global infectious disease research at Roche, making it a challenge to sell.

Away from healthcare, companies like 3M are focused on rebuilding confidence in the return to work and play. After quadrupling production of its N95 respirators last year, 3M now expects increased demand for hygiene monitoring systems for food service areas and a protective film it makes for handrails, among other products, said Chief Technology Officer John Banovetz.

Anticipating what’s coming next has always been a good way for companies to turn a profit. But in less turbulent times, executives have often been rewarded for pinching pennies instead.

Over the past year it’s become clear that pinching too hard can cost them, and their customers, dollars.

Write to Charley Grant at [email protected]
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
PizzaSnake
Posts: 5297
Joined: Tue Mar 05, 2019 8:36 pm

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by PizzaSnake »

Sometimes old adages say it all...

“Penny wise, pound foolish.”

People (I’m looking at you, MBAs) confuse near-real time communication with comprehension. Too much data can be a bad thing if you can’t use it. Creates an illusion of omniscience which sometimes leads to delusions of omnipotence.
"There is nothing more difficult and more dangerous to carry through than initiating changes. One makes enemies of those who prospered under the old order, and only lukewarm support from those who would prosper under the new."
Farfromgeneva
Posts: 23818
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:53 am

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Farfromgeneva »

It's a principal-agency problem, though I'd argue the principal side has abrogated their own responsibilities over time and not all of it is structural, acknowledging some is. Principals' have yet to construct a decent incentivization structure in the entire time of my life on this planet from what I've personally observed.

Problem with MBA, which I have, is that it was designed to be for folks with 4-10ish years of experience to learn about becoming middle management (a portion of the pyramid or matrix, take your pick, that's been flattening for two decades partially due to demographics of the boomer cohort which Tech or some other "greycap" will claim is ageism or take offense rather than picking up a book on Malthusean economic theory). Since wall st became "cool" in the mid - late 1980s, ironically at the same time the firms were really consolidating and going public to become producers of financial prodcuts using "other people's money" rather than advisors and intermediaries with their own partnership capital at risk, it's become either (largest group) a place to go when you can't get the call to make the "A to A" (analyst to associate, street firms typically blow out 90% of their analysts after three years, very few are offered promotions organically) move or go from "sell side" Ibanking analyst preparing pitch books until 3am to "buy side" Private Equity where they work until midnight getting paralysis modeling every hypothetical deal that a banker sends across their bosses desk. None of that has to do with teh original intent and structure of business school but as you might guess our fearless leaders in acadamia have bent the programs to that focus over the past 25yrs.

MBAs are also less "academic" than some other programs, though you could argue that about some hard sciences which would make some folks uncomfortable around here. If you've replaced Kierkegaards "leap of faith" to slaughtering your son for the man to a similar absoute belief in a world that we can never fully understand before we run into Xeno's paradox on time and space (i.e. can never reach the end, or covnersely and understanding of the beginning) including most hard sciences I wouldn't be so quick to dimiss other graduate programs. This is not directed at Pizza more of a "royal" we/you being used here. The nobel prize in economics has been given to Robert Merton and Leland/Rubenstein for option pricing which can only ever approximate the real world in option pricing (Merton) and directly lead to Black Monday in 1987 (other two for discovering something called portfolio insurance, both misunderstood fat tail exposure horribly) and is considered more legitamate by the academic crowd...
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
PizzaSnake
Posts: 5297
Joined: Tue Mar 05, 2019 8:36 pm

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by PizzaSnake »

Farfromgeneva wrote: Fri Mar 19, 2021 12:27 pm It's a principal-agency problem, though I'd argue the principal side has abrogated their own responsibilities over time and not all of it is structural, acknowledging some is. Principals' have yet to construct a decent incentivization structure in the entire time of my life on this planet from what I've personally observed.

Problem with MBA, which I have, is that it was designed to be for folks with 4-10ish years of experience to learn about becoming middle management (a portion of the pyramid or matrix, take your pick, that's been flattening for two decades partially due to demographics of the boomer cohort which Tech or some other "greycap" will claim is ageism or take offense rather than picking up a book on Malthusean economic theory). Since wall st became "cool" in the mid - late 1980s, ironically at the same time the firms were really consolidating and going public to become producers of financial prodcuts using "other people's money" rather than advisors and intermediaries with their own partnership capital at risk, it's become either (largest group) a place to go when you can't get the call to make the "A to A" (analyst to associate, street firms typically blow out 90% of their analysts after three years, very few are offered promotions organically) move or go from "sell side" Ibanking analyst preparing pitch books until 3am to "buy side" Private Equity where they work until midnight getting paralysis modeling every hypothetical deal that a banker sends across their bosses desk. None of that has to do with teh original intent and structure of business school but as you might guess our fearless leaders in acadamia have bent the programs to that focus over the past 25yrs.

MBAs are also less "academic" than some other programs, though you could argue that about some hard sciences which would make some folks uncomfortable around here. If you've replaced Kierkegaards "leap of faith" to slaughtering your son for the man to a similar absoute belief in a world that we can never fully understand before we run into Xeno's paradox on time and space (i.e. can never reach the end, or covnersely and understanding of the beginning) including most hard sciences I wouldn't be so quick to dimiss other graduate programs. This is not directed at Pizza more of a "royal" we/you being used here. The nobel prize in economics has been given to Robert Merton and Leland/Rubenstein for option pricing which can only ever approximate the real world in option pricing (Merton) and directly lead to Black Monday in 1987 (other two for discovering something called portfolio insurance, both misunderstood fat tail exposure horribly) and is considered more legitamate by the academic crowd...
What impact if any?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... n-waterway

Think they’ll need to do this?

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0ENOJBLVgjw
"There is nothing more difficult and more dangerous to carry through than initiating changes. One makes enemies of those who prospered under the old order, and only lukewarm support from those who would prosper under the new."
Farfromgeneva
Posts: 23818
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:53 am

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Farfromgeneva »

Don’t know enough about the size canal Situation read a wsj piece but don’t have BBerg anymore (which if you’ve ever had a terminal and then not, it’s like losing ones eyesight or hearing the way it can be leaned on for a ton of information-not just market/business related too).

But the point I’ve been driving home is that the agent has to set the parameters of the incentive system and oversee it and if they don’t you’ll get free riders all day and night.
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
PizzaSnake
Posts: 5297
Joined: Tue Mar 05, 2019 8:36 pm

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by PizzaSnake »

Farfromgeneva wrote: Thu Mar 25, 2021 6:29 pm Don’t know enough about the size canal Situation read a wsj piece but don’t have BBerg anymore (which if you’ve ever had a terminal and then not, it’s like losing ones eyesight or hearing the way it can be leaned on for a ton of information-not just market/business related too).

But the point I’ve been driving home is that the agent has to set the parameters of the incentive system and oversee it and if they don’t you’ll get free riders all day and night.
Is this a free-rider problem or p$ss-poor engineering?

Bloomberg gives you three free...
"There is nothing more difficult and more dangerous to carry through than initiating changes. One makes enemies of those who prospered under the old order, and only lukewarm support from those who would prosper under the new."
PizzaSnake
Posts: 5297
Joined: Tue Mar 05, 2019 8:36 pm

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by PizzaSnake »

Nothing says dignity of employment quite like defecating in you vehicle. I bet the mothers of these Amazon management cretins are so proud.

https://theintercept.com/2021/03/25/ama ... les-union/
"There is nothing more difficult and more dangerous to carry through than initiating changes. One makes enemies of those who prospered under the old order, and only lukewarm support from those who would prosper under the new."
Farfromgeneva
Posts: 23818
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:53 am

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Farfromgeneva »

I suppose it’s an existential question as to whether the “free rider” problem is really a problem if it’s inherent in our nature in any collective environment. But beyond that I’d say it’s both with poor structuring of incentives the condition precedent for “free riders” to succeed in their wealth and risk transference

(not accepting “poor structuring” as a broadly defined thing that could suggest I’m advocating for a complete tear down of our systems, believe in their superiority to heterodox theoretical systems dependent on execution and consistency. This being said, if I’m on the left and not advocating for complete political and economic overhaul I’m intellectually fraudulent/mistaken because planned intentional movement away from the concept of our structure is rejecting it predominantly and that position needs to be extreme and not marginal.)

I know on BBerg and need to clear my cache and just read it but had skimmed a wsj piece on this stuck tanker so have some very high level idea of the story on just zero command of the details (which could ultimately change my overall understanding of course...). I just really, really miss my Bloomberg. Unfortunately I can’t justify the onboarding which I believe is close to $50k and then another $1500-$2000/mo for our current business. Elected to even skip SNL which was acquired a few years back by S&P* and
Immediately jacked prices and taking a flyer on a new analytics business from Kroll for $5k/license and also assuming as an early beta customer that I get taken care of and I also have some plans to leverage their credit and macro analysts to jointly publish some self serving but useful research so there’s more to that than cost.

Long story short is I’m still in year 1 of a few business and not realizing how comfortable it is being in the warm embrace of a paycheck job where T&E can be up to 10% of gross revenues and shady transfer pricing allows your unit P&L to have highly subsidized infrastructure, especially on licensing and subscription services (Hardware is cheap and continues to be deflationary). But sure would like to have a Bloomberg again one day which will mean business success if I’m passing away $25kyr on something that might save me 50-100 man hours per year tops for business purposes,maybe less...
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
PizzaSnake
Posts: 5297
Joined: Tue Mar 05, 2019 8:36 pm

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by PizzaSnake »

Farfromgeneva wrote: Thu Mar 25, 2021 9:09 pm I suppose it’s an existential question as to whether the “free rider” problem is really a problem if it’s inherent in our nature in any collective environment. But beyond that I’d say it’s both with poor structuring of incentives the condition precedent for “free riders” to succeed in their wealth and risk transference

(not accepting “poor structuring” as a broadly defined thing that could suggest I’m advocating for a complete tear down of our systems, believe in their superiority to heterodox theoretical systems dependent on execution and consistency. This being said, if I’m on the left and not advocating for complete political and economic overhaul I’m intellectually fraudulent/mistaken because planned intentional movement away from the concept of our structure is rejecting it predominantly and that position needs to be extreme and not marginal.)

I know on BBerg and need to clear my cache and just read it but had skimmed a wsj piece on this stuck tanker so have some very high level idea of the story on just zero command of the details (which could ultimately change my overall understanding of course...). I just really, really miss my Bloomberg. Unfortunately I can’t justify the onboarding which I believe is close to $50k and then another $1500-$2000/mo for our current business. Elected to even skip SNL which was acquired a few years back by S&P* and
Immediately jacked prices and taking a flyer on a new analytics business from Kroll for $5k/license and also assuming as an early beta customer that I get taken care of and I also have some plans to leverage their credit and macro analysts to jointly publish some self serving but useful research so there’s more to that than cost.

Long story short is I’m still in year 1 of a few business and not realizing how comfortable it is being in the warm embrace of a paycheck job where T&E can be up to 10% of gross revenues and shady transfer pricing allows your unit P&L to have highly subsidized infrastructure, especially on licensing and subscription services (Hardware is cheap and continues to be deflationary). But sure would like to have a Bloomberg again one day which will mean business success if I’m passing away $25kyr on something that might save me 50-100 man hours per year tops for business purposes,maybe less...
What's up with the unregistered block trades? Somebody cutting and running? Time for some of the air to come out of the bubble?

Time for for some "reality TV"?
"There is nothing more difficult and more dangerous to carry through than initiating changes. One makes enemies of those who prospered under the old order, and only lukewarm support from those who would prosper under the new."
Farfromgeneva
Posts: 23818
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:53 am

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Farfromgeneva »

PizzaSnake wrote: Tue Mar 23, 2021 11:20 pm
Farfromgeneva wrote: Fri Mar 19, 2021 12:27 pm It's a principal-agency problem, though I'd argue the principal side has abrogated their own responsibilities over time and not all of it is structural, acknowledging some is. Principals' have yet to construct a decent incentivization structure in the entire time of my life on this planet from what I've personally observed.

Problem with MBA, which I have, is that it was designed to be for folks with 4-10ish years of experience to learn about becoming middle management (a portion of the pyramid or matrix, take your pick, that's been flattening for two decades partially due to demographics of the boomer cohort which Tech or some other "greycap" will claim is ageism or take offense rather than picking up a book on Malthusean economic theory). Since wall st became "cool" in the mid - late 1980s, ironically at the same time the firms were really consolidating and going public to become producers of financial prodcuts using "other people's money" rather than advisors and intermediaries with their own partnership capital at risk, it's become either (largest group) a place to go when you can't get the call to make the "A to A" (analyst to associate, street firms typically blow out 90% of their analysts after three years, very few are offered promotions organically) move or go from "sell side" Ibanking analyst preparing pitch books until 3am to "buy side" Private Equity where they work until midnight getting paralysis modeling every hypothetical deal that a banker sends across their bosses desk. None of that has to do with teh original intent and structure of business school but as you might guess our fearless leaders in acadamia have bent the programs to that focus over the past 25yrs.

MBAs are also less "academic" than some other programs, though you could argue that about some hard sciences which would make some folks uncomfortable around here. If you've replaced Kierkegaards "leap of faith" to slaughtering your son for the man to a similar absoute belief in a world that we can never fully understand before we run into Xeno's paradox on time and space (i.e. can never reach the end, or covnersely and understanding of the beginning) including most hard sciences I wouldn't be so quick to dimiss other graduate programs. This is not directed at Pizza more of a "royal" we/you being used here. The nobel prize in economics has been given to Robert Merton and Leland/Rubenstein for option pricing which can only ever approximate the real world in option pricing (Merton) and directly lead to Black Monday in 1987 (other two for discovering something called portfolio insurance, both misunderstood fat tail exposure horribly) and is considered more legitamate by the academic crowd...
What impact if any?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... n-waterway

Think they’ll need to do this?

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0ENOJBLVgjw
In the Suez Canal, Economics and Physics Make for Tough Sailing
Container ships have grown in size, making ‘bank effects’ a potential hazard to navigation

Tugboats are continuing their attempts to pull the Ever Given from the thick sediment lining the Suez Canal.
PHOTO: KHALED ELFIQI/SHUTTERSTOCK
By Stu Woo
March 27, 2021 8:00 am ET
SAVE
SHARE
TEXT
Listen to this article4 minutes

00:00 / 03:32
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When Evert Lataire studied the publicly available data for the Ever Given’s fateful voyage this week, he noticed the vessel did something unusual just before settling sideways in the Suez Canal: The container ship veered close to the channel’s western bank.

Mr. Lataire knew the hydrodynamics of the situation. He wrote his Ph.D. dissertation about such physics—and has simulated it over and over with model boats in an indoor testing tank in his native Flanders.

“At that point to me, the accident was inevitable,” he said.


It is still unclear exactly why one of the world’s biggest ships ended up plowing into the canal’s eastern bank, blocking the shipping choke point and upending the global supply chain. But two reasons, one rooted in physics and the other in economics, explain why the conditions were ripe for a mishap.

Big Ships
The ship that held up Suez Canal traffic, the Ever Given, is one of the world’s biggest ships.


How the ship stacks up
Ever Given built 2018
Deadweight*: 220,123 tons
Width: 194 feet
length
1,312 feet
HMM Algeciras 2020 (world’s largest ship)
Deadweight*: 220,462 tons
Width: 200 feet
1,312 feet
18 tractor trailers (72 feet)
1,296 feet
NYK TRITON 2008
The largest ship through the Panama Canal
Deadweight*: 88,456 tons
Width: 131 feet
997 feet
*Summer deadweight tonnage, the ship’s carrying capacity at a particular draught; figures converted to short tons.
Sources: MarineTraffic (measurements); Oil Companies International Marine Forum (deadweight); Marine Insight (largest ship)
One factor is size. Cargo ships didn’t used to be this big. As recently as 1996, the biggest container vessels carried the equivalent of 7,000 boxes, each 20 feet long. There was no reason to go larger. “You get to a point where you need a bigger port and bigger cranes,” said Paul Stott, a U.K.-based maritime consultant who teaches at Newcastle University.


Then harbors went down that route, building larger ports and cranes to accommodate ever-growing vessels. And the industry realized bigger boats made economic sense. Mr. Stott said a massive cargo ship with double the capacity of another requires the same amount of crew, about 20 to 25. Larger boats also burn less fuel per box aboard.

By the mid-2000s, cargo ships could carry the equivalent of 15,000 boxes. In recent years, ships including the Ever Given surpassed 20,000 containers, which laid end-to-end would stretch 75 miles.

Shipbuilders made the vessels bigger by making them wider, which creates consequences for hydrodynamics, especially in shallow, narrow waters such as canals. Imagine standing on a bank, watching a ship sail from right to left, said Mr. Lataire, a Ghent University professor and researcher for the Belgium-based Knowledge Center for Maneuvering in Shallow and Confined Water. The water between the boat and bank would be traveling in the opposite direction, from left to right, as the boat displaces water.

If the boat gets closer to shore and further squeezes the water against the bank, it would create an area of high pressure that nudges the front of the boat toward the center of the canal, while an area of low pressure draws the back of the boat toward the bank, Mr. Lataire said.


A ship moving through a canal creates low-pressure areas alongside it that pilots steering the ship must manage.
1
Canal
bank
North
Low-
pressure
area
Low
pressure
High pressure
If the ship encounters encounters a high-pressure area, the combination can create suction — the back of the boat is pulled toward the bank and the bow veers toward the center of the canal.
2
Suction area
Drift due to
bank effect
High
pressure
Wind can catch the side of a tall container ship, turning the bow even farther towards the opposite bank.
3
Drift due to
wind effect
Wind
Source: Marine Insight
The “bank effects” are well known in the shipping industry. What is unclear is why the Ever Given got so close to the bank.

The ship was sailing north, while a strong gust was blowing west-to-east. To compensate for the wind, a pilot would have had to steer the boat to the left to sail straight ahead. If there were a sudden lull in the gusts while the boat was still steered to the left, the ship could have inadvertently gotten too close to the western bank, Mr. Lataire said. That is where the bank effect would have kicked in, causing the front of the boat to spin out toward the eastern bank.


A mechanical failure, or human error, could have also been the problem. Egyptian officials continue to probe the accident.

Write to Stu Woo at [email protected]
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
PizzaSnake
Posts: 5297
Joined: Tue Mar 05, 2019 8:36 pm

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by PizzaSnake »

Farfromgeneva wrote: Sat Mar 27, 2021 10:29 pm
PizzaSnake wrote: Tue Mar 23, 2021 11:20 pm
Farfromgeneva wrote: Fri Mar 19, 2021 12:27 pm It's a principal-agency problem, though I'd argue the principal side has abrogated their own responsibilities over time and not all of it is structural, acknowledging some is. Principals' have yet to construct a decent incentivization structure in the entire time of my life on this planet from what I've personally observed.

Problem with MBA, which I have, is that it was designed to be for folks with 4-10ish years of experience to learn about becoming middle management (a portion of the pyramid or matrix, take your pick, that's been flattening for two decades partially due to demographics of the boomer cohort which Tech or some other "greycap" will claim is ageism or take offense rather than picking up a book on Malthusean economic theory). Since wall st became "cool" in the mid - late 1980s, ironically at the same time the firms were really consolidating and going public to become producers of financial prodcuts using "other people's money" rather than advisors and intermediaries with their own partnership capital at risk, it's become either (largest group) a place to go when you can't get the call to make the "A to A" (analyst to associate, street firms typically blow out 90% of their analysts after three years, very few are offered promotions organically) move or go from "sell side" Ibanking analyst preparing pitch books until 3am to "buy side" Private Equity where they work until midnight getting paralysis modeling every hypothetical deal that a banker sends across their bosses desk. None of that has to do with teh original intent and structure of business school but as you might guess our fearless leaders in acadamia have bent the programs to that focus over the past 25yrs.

MBAs are also less "academic" than some other programs, though you could argue that about some hard sciences which would make some folks uncomfortable around here. If you've replaced Kierkegaards "leap of faith" to slaughtering your son for the man to a similar absoute belief in a world that we can never fully understand before we run into Xeno's paradox on time and space (i.e. can never reach the end, or covnersely and understanding of the beginning) including most hard sciences I wouldn't be so quick to dimiss other graduate programs. This is not directed at Pizza more of a "royal" we/you being used here. The nobel prize in economics has been given to Robert Merton and Leland/Rubenstein for option pricing which can only ever approximate the real world in option pricing (Merton) and directly lead to Black Monday in 1987 (other two for discovering something called portfolio insurance, both misunderstood fat tail exposure horribly) and is considered more legitamate by the academic crowd...
What impact if any?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... n-waterway

Think they’ll need to do this?

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0ENOJBLVgjw
In the Suez Canal, Economics and Physics Make for Tough Sailing
Container ships have grown in size, making ‘bank effects’ a potential hazard to navigation

Tugboats are continuing their attempts to pull the Ever Given from the thick sediment lining the Suez Canal.
PHOTO: KHALED ELFIQI/SHUTTERSTOCK
By Stu Woo
March 27, 2021 8:00 am ET
SAVE
SHARE
TEXT
Listen to this article4 minutes

00:00 / 03:32
1x

When Evert Lataire studied the publicly available data for the Ever Given’s fateful voyage this week, he noticed the vessel did something unusual just before settling sideways in the Suez Canal: The container ship veered close to the channel’s western bank.

Mr. Lataire knew the hydrodynamics of the situation. He wrote his Ph.D. dissertation about such physics—and has simulated it over and over with model boats in an indoor testing tank in his native Flanders.

“At that point to me, the accident was inevitable,” he said.


It is still unclear exactly why one of the world’s biggest ships ended up plowing into the canal’s eastern bank, blocking the shipping choke point and upending the global supply chain. But two reasons, one rooted in physics and the other in economics, explain why the conditions were ripe for a mishap.

Big Ships
The ship that held up Suez Canal traffic, the Ever Given, is one of the world’s biggest ships.


How the ship stacks up
Ever Given built 2018
Deadweight*: 220,123 tons
Width: 194 feet
length
1,312 feet
HMM Algeciras 2020 (world’s largest ship)
Deadweight*: 220,462 tons
Width: 200 feet
1,312 feet
18 tractor trailers (72 feet)
1,296 feet
NYK TRITON 2008
The largest ship through the Panama Canal
Deadweight*: 88,456 tons
Width: 131 feet
997 feet
*Summer deadweight tonnage, the ship’s carrying capacity at a particular draught; figures converted to short tons.
Sources: MarineTraffic (measurements); Oil Companies International Marine Forum (deadweight); Marine Insight (largest ship)
One factor is size. Cargo ships didn’t used to be this big. As recently as 1996, the biggest container vessels carried the equivalent of 7,000 boxes, each 20 feet long. There was no reason to go larger. “You get to a point where you need a bigger port and bigger cranes,” said Paul Stott, a U.K.-based maritime consultant who teaches at Newcastle University.


Then harbors went down that route, building larger ports and cranes to accommodate ever-growing vessels. And the industry realized bigger boats made economic sense. Mr. Stott said a massive cargo ship with double the capacity of another requires the same amount of crew, about 20 to 25. Larger boats also burn less fuel per box aboard.

By the mid-2000s, cargo ships could carry the equivalent of 15,000 boxes. In recent years, ships including the Ever Given surpassed 20,000 containers, which laid end-to-end would stretch 75 miles.

Shipbuilders made the vessels bigger by making them wider, which creates consequences for hydrodynamics, especially in shallow, narrow waters such as canals. Imagine standing on a bank, watching a ship sail from right to left, said Mr. Lataire, a Ghent University professor and researcher for the Belgium-based Knowledge Center for Maneuvering in Shallow and Confined Water. The water between the boat and bank would be traveling in the opposite direction, from left to right, as the boat displaces water.

If the boat gets closer to shore and further squeezes the water against the bank, it would create an area of high pressure that nudges the front of the boat toward the center of the canal, while an area of low pressure draws the back of the boat toward the bank, Mr. Lataire said.


A ship moving through a canal creates low-pressure areas alongside it that pilots steering the ship must manage.
1
Canal
bank
North
Low-
pressure
area
Low
pressure
High pressure
If the ship encounters encounters a high-pressure area, the combination can create suction — the back of the boat is pulled toward the bank and the bow veers toward the center of the canal.
2
Suction area
Drift due to
bank effect
High
pressure
Wind can catch the side of a tall container ship, turning the bow even farther towards the opposite bank.
3
Drift due to
wind effect
Wind
Source: Marine Insight
The “bank effects” are well known in the shipping industry. What is unclear is why the Ever Given got so close to the bank.

The ship was sailing north, while a strong gust was blowing west-to-east. To compensate for the wind, a pilot would have had to steer the boat to the left to sail straight ahead. If there were a sudden lull in the gusts while the boat was still steered to the left, the ship could have inadvertently gotten too close to the western bank, Mr. Lataire said. That is where the bank effect would have kicked in, causing the front of the boat to spin out toward the eastern bank.


A mechanical failure, or human error, could have also been the problem. Egyptian officials continue to probe the accident.

Write to Stu Woo at [email protected]
Too clever by half. Incomplete engineering driven by disproportionate emphasis on profit. Reminds me of the demise of the culture of Boeing after the LM merger.

"Then harbors went down that route, building larger ports and cranes to accommodate ever-growing vessels. And the industry realized bigger boats made economic sense. Mr. Stott said a massive cargo ship with double the capacity of another requires the same amount of crew, about 20 to 25. Larger boats also burn less fuel per box aboard.

By the mid-2000s, cargo ships could carry the equivalent of 15,000 boxes. In recent years, ships including the Ever Given surpassed 20,000 containers, which laid end-to-end would stretch 75 miles.

Shipbuilders made the vessels bigger by making them wider, which creates consequences for hydrodynamics, especially in shallow, narrow waters such as canals. Imagine standing on a bank, watching a ship sail from right to left, said Mr. Lataire, a Ghent University professor and researcher for the Belgium-based Knowledge Center for Maneuvering in Shallow and Confined Water. The water between the boat and bank would be traveling in the opposite direction, from left to right, as the boat displaces water.

If the boat gets closer to shore and further squeezes the water against the bank, it would create an area of high pressure that nudges the front of the boat toward the center of the canal, while an area of low pressure draws the back of the boat toward the bank, Mr. Lataire said."

Try moving your hands in opposing directions in the bath in a parallel propalinal fashion -- pretty obvious effect.
"There is nothing more difficult and more dangerous to carry through than initiating changes. One makes enemies of those who prospered under the old order, and only lukewarm support from those who would prosper under the new."
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