Re: ivy league 2024
Posted: Thu Apr 18, 2024 12:06 am
Yes... I can see your point. it's a funny year. I'd argue that Princeton has (thus far) under-achieved considering the talent that they have on the roster. Massey gives them a two goal edge against Penn this weekend. It will be interesting to see what happens.Can Opener wrote: ↑Thu Apr 18, 2024 12:01 amI suppose a gambling man would take the other side of your prediction. Princeton should be an underdog in both of those games and has assembled a fairly pedestrian record so far. They have only two wins over opponents with a winning record — Rutgers and Harvard. Even if they win one of their two final games, they will be rooting hard for Harvard to defeat Brown. The Bears haven’t lost to Dartmouth since Hector was a pup, so assuming that is a W again this year, their ILT will effectively begin when they travel to Harvard for a play-in game to end the regular season. That kind of late season run would be very “on brand” for Daly. If they beat Harvard, Princeton’s season would be over since Brown holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Tigers and Harvard, making them the #4 seed in either a 2-way or a 3-way tie at 3-3. Princeton’s loss to Brown was just a killer for them.faircornell wrote: ↑Wed Apr 17, 2024 10:13 pmI'd be surprised if Princeton did not clock at least one more win this Ivy regular season.The Orfling wrote: ↑Wed Apr 17, 2024 4:25 pm Don't look now but the race for the Ivy League tournament is getting kind of interesting with Brown's upset of Princeton.
- Brown: currently 1-3, has beaten Princeton head-to-head, still with Dartmouth and Harvard to play.
- Harvard: currently 1-3, with Brown and Cornell still to play;
Correct me if I'm wrong but I think here's a possible path for each team (not saying the only path though):
- Princeton: currently 2-2, with Penn and Yale still to play.
1. Princeton: controls their own destiny, if they win out (vs. two challenging opponents) they end at 4-2 and are in (and I think would clinch at least the #2 seed?);
2. Harvard: Needs more help -- if they win out to get to 3-3 I believe they need Princeton to lose both remaining games because Princeton beat Harvard head-to-head;
3. Brown: Needs medium help -- must win out to get to 3-3 and hope Princeton loses one of their last two games; if Brown is 3-3 in this scenario they'd get into the ILT because they'd hold wins over both Princeton and Harvard.
There's also a flukier possibility of those three teams finishing at 2-4? E.g. Princeton loses to Penn and Yale; Harvard loses to Cornell and beats Brown; Brown loses to Harvard and beats Dartmouth. In that scenario (not the only 2-4 scenario but seemingly the most plausible) then I think it would go to goal differential in the games in which those three teams played/play each other.
In an even flukier 2-4 scenario in which Princeton loses to both Penn and Yale, Harvard beats Cornell but loses to Brown; and Brown beats Harvard but loses to Dartmouth, I believe Brown would emerge with the ILT slot by virtue of having beaten Harvard and Princeton and thus going 2-0 vs the group.
Flukiest of them all, 4 teams at 2-4: Dartmouth beats Brown and Cornell (2-4); Princeton loses to Yale and Penn (2-4); Harvard splits by beating Cornell, losing to Brown (2-4); and Brown splits by losing to Dartmouth and beating Harvard (2-4). In that scenario I think it would go to goal differential.
Makes your head spin!