Cornell 2019

[RedIvy]

While I agree low FO win percentage can be mitigated/overcome I also agree we need real strength in all other parts of our game:

1. Need to come out strong in first quarter and not dig a hole as we have in most games this year.
2. Assuming we loose the FO battle by large margin (remember last year at Albany, same matchup with now what seems to be a hurt shoulder so expect same result) and can’t get quick turnover like we did vs. Towson, we need to avoid pinch and pop breaks and even force the FO loss to Yale’s defensive end of the field where they have to clear and we ride hard.
3. Shot percentage needs to stay High, with high percentage doorstep assisted goals as we have been doing for 2+ seasons now
4. Need 55%+ goal tending (this was a key stat in ILT game by Knight last year)
5. Limit unforced turnovers
6. Win the non FO ground ball battle (wish this was a clean separate stat).
7. 92%+ clear percentage
8. Reduce penalties while still playing hard (off sides, unsportsmanlike... just can’t happen), I understand that some of the push calls come from aggressive play so we may get a few of these type 30 second fouls as a consequence of aggressive ground ball play
9 Tenatious ride that generates a couple turnovers and maybe even a goal, perhaps be ready with 4th attackman to rest a tired attackman due to tough rides
10. Extra man conversion, I think this may be a Yale weakness, need to covert at 50%+

Go Big Red

[Gobigred]

While I agree low FO win percentage can be mitigated/overcome I also agree we need real strength in all other parts of our game:

1. Need to come out strong in first quarter and not dig a hole as we have in most games this year.
2. Assuming we loose the FO battle by large margin (remember last year at Albany, same matchup with now what seems to be a hurt shoulder so expect same result) and can’t get quick turnover like we did vs. Towson, we need to avoid pinch and pop breaks and even force the FO loss to Yale’s defensive end of the field where they have to clear and we ride hard.
3. Shot percentage needs to stay High, with high percentage doorstep assisted goals as we have been doing for 2+ seasons now
4. Need 55%+ goal tending (this was a key stat in ILT game by Knight last year)
5. Limit unforced turnovers
6. Win the non FO ground ball battle (wish this was a clean separate stat).
7. 92%+ clear percentage
8. Reduce penalties while still playing hard (off sides, unsportsmanlike... just can’t happen), I understand that some of the push calls come from aggressive play so we may get a few of these type 30 second fouls as a consequence of aggressive ground ball play
9 Tenatious ride that generates a couple turnovers and maybe even a goal, perhaps be ready with 4th attackman to rest a tired attackman due to tough rides
10. Extra man conversion, I think this may be a Yale weakness, need to covert at 50%+

Go Big Red

Sold! I'll take every one of these. Where do I sign up?

[RedIvy]

I’m very curious to see how Yale plays JT51. Last year it seems clear that it was a mistake not to lock him off in the ILT, but with the improvement of Piatelli and CP45, along with time to develop and refine plays to counter this strategy, I think I would play him straight up. The lock off on Teat when he’s GLE gives Piatelli a lot of room for his improved wrap around, with slide now coming from crease instead of adjacent he can also dump to CP. I think Piatelli’s increased assist production is a direct result of an improved staregy against the Shut off.

[faircornell]

My guess is that they put Fake on JT51. They'll need to be ready to slide to deal with Petterson and Piatelli, and they need to cover Donville, Fletcher and McCulloch up-top. Personally, and has been mentioned, I assume that our offensive efficiency will be really good. I just hope that we get the ball enough.

[RedIvy]

Put Fake on Teat knowing he will have little to no help/back up in an attempt to limit his assists and trusting Fake can handle him 1:1. Good game within the game......

[DMac]

Choose your poison with Teat, concur that you play him 1v1 with your best/most capable Dman and trust the rest of the D to provide enough support. That's been tried and failed, but facing him...nah.
TD looms.

[wgdsr]

my team already knows how to play its base defenses.
cornell had several games last year to figure out effective counters to shutting off teat, and was largely deficient in rising to its previous production. it was a whole thing.

not employing that strategy for at least the better part of the first half to see how it goes is coaching hubris.

[DMac]

I think that very much depends on the type of Dmen you've got. If you're playing with a bunch lumbering, heavy-footed Dmen, guess you better face him and hope the rest can cover all the green the 5v5 game offers. If I have a quick footed Dman with good reaction time and a D pole he can can use like a swordsman, I'm not facing him. Tough to shut Teat out, but I'd take my chances that way and adjust if I have to.
Very interesting match up, we'll see how it all plays out.
Cornell 14, Yale 12.

[margolism]

I am not all too concerned about us getting the ball enough.

Yale scores 13.25 goals per game and wins 77.9% of their face-offs.
Clear percentage is 80.9%

Cornell scores 16.2 goals per game despite winning 32.2% of their face-offs.
Clear percentage is 86.3%

Stats above are based on a fairly comparable competitive set:
Cornell has defeated teams currently ranked 5 and 16, and three of four wins this season have been by more than one goal.
Yale has defeated teams currently ranked 1 (and only has only one win this season by more than one goal)

Once again, I am not a lacrosse guru by any measure, but my interpretation of this is:
- Yale is not taking enough advantage of their face-off dominance. They are squandering it due to their subpar offensive efficiency.
- Cornell is doing a terrific job neutralizing their face-off disadvantage. I would dare say almost a perfect job, based on the stats I present below.

An interesting look at some key stats this season (based on games through 3/12)
Here are the top five scoring teams in D1 with their face-off percentages, rank in terms of shot percentage:

#1 Penn State 18.86 (58.1% - #15) - #2 in shot percentage
#2 Hobart 18.40 (68.6% - #4) - #10 in shot percentage
#3 Cornell 16.20 (32.2% - #71) - #1 in shot percentage
#4 Sienna 15.60 (41.3% - #58) - #5 in shot percentage
#5 Princeton 14.60 (54% - #26) - #30 in shot percentage

Of the top scoring teams in the country, only 1 is in the top 10, 2 in the top 20 in terms of face-off %.
On the other hand, four of the top scoring teams in the country are in the top 10 in terms of shot percentage.

Cornell this season already has wins against the teams with the #2, #4, and #5 best face-off win percentages (Towson, Hobart, and Lehigh.) All of those wins were by at least three goals. In terms of face off win percentage, Cornell is ahead of newcomers Utah and St. Bonaventure. That's it. We are 71st out of 73 D1 teams.

As a stats guy, the correlation between face-off wins and scoring does not seem to be that strong, or even exist, at least this season. If I had some time, I would love to see the relationship between face-off wins and time of possession. (Is TOP even tracked in lacrosse? I couldn't find any data on this.) I would also find it interesting to see the correlation between face-off win percentage and offense production in the pre-shot clock era.

[wgdsr]

I think that very much depends on the type of Dmen you've got. If you're playing with a bunch lumbering, heavy-footed Dmen, guess you better face him and hope the rest can cover all the green the 5v5 game offers. If I have a quick footed Dman with good reaction time and a D pole he can can use like a swordsman, I'm not facing him. Tough to shut Teat out, but I'd take my chances that way and adjust if I have to.
Very interesting match up, we'll see how it all plays out.
Cornell 14, Yale 12.

tomato, tomato.
i believe that line of thinking is hubris. and in the hypothetical.
towson has a pretty good defense, no?
they limited cornell's possessions via the faceoff, and still let up 18 goals.

has anybody employed shutting him off yet? they are scoring at an absurd approx 50% rate against some good competition thus far. what was their rate in games where he was shut off last year?

sure, it's a new year. but same coaches and tho with some new faces, there are also a lot of the same guys back. this offense torches defenses 6 v 6.

[nyclaxfan]

Yup...if there is room I might have to switch sides at the half to stay close to the Cornell offense/Yale defense match-up. I hope Yale’s stadium does not feel too clausterphobic.

[Gobigred]

Yup...if there is room I might have to switch sides at the half to stay close to the Cornell offense/Yale defense match-up. I hope Yale’s stadium does not feel too clausterphobic.

I think you'd have to switch at the quarter.

[DMac]

....and make that plural.

[CU77]

In terms of face off win percentage, Cornell is ahead of newcomers Utah and St. Bonaventure.

I guess that means we'll be favored against St.B next Tuesday!

[RedIvy]

It’s really the combination of strengths and weaknesses, our efficient offense and other strengths can make up for low FO win percentage. Not to dream or go back to last summer but could you imagine if you combined TD’s FO win percentage with Cornell’s efficient offense.....

[FannOLax]

With TD, hands-down favorite to win the national championship.

[RedIvy]

With TD, hands-down favorite to win the national championship.

Agreed.... now back to reality and a good game to start off Ivy conference play

[faircornell]

Some of what happens may be determined by early game momentum. In the Penn State game this year, and the Princeton game in 2018, the opposition seemed to be able to force Cornell out of it's rythm early on. Following last weekend's ups and downs, I don't think that this is a risk that Cornell will be unprepared for.

[Ivyman]

Part of the awful face off percentage is the excellent face off opponents. From the list above we played two of the five on the list, and Towson and Lehigh who have very good guys as well.

Or are those teams so high on the list because THEY played US?

[DMac]

Got some hope for you, Ivy. In 2013 Cuse's achilles heel was the face off. So much so that their coach embarrassingly suggested that lacrosse should consider doing away with the face off. Cuse played on Memorial Day that year (lost to Duke). The next year the phenom Ben Williams transferred to Cuse, his prowess was the talk of the lax world. Cuse never made it back to Memorial Day with the phenom and even got beat in the first round of post season play with him at the face off X. Plenty of hope, complete teams win games, not FOGOs.