Sensible Gun Safety

[Typical Lax Dad]

Happy Thursday!

https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/04/us/iowa- ... index.html

Just the price of a robust Second Amendment. Reporting one dead right now.

Sensible gun legislation is a bridge too far……we need to do something about Drag Queen Storytime

[Kismet]

NRA CEO Wayne LaPierre resigns ahead of his New York civil corruption trial, charging he used NRA funds for personal use.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/wayne ... r-AA1mwwox

In Iowa, Orange Fatso tells people "to get over it" with regard to the school shooting in Perry where a 6th grader was killed and a principal was wounded.

Idiot.

[Farfromgeneva]

Legal illegal? Let the gun acolytes suck on the barrel of this story while they work to excuse and twist it.

The Gun Influencer Who Used Small-Town Cops to Import Machine Guns
Federal prosecutors target high-end gunrunning operation


Until one day several years ago, when Sawyer got a strange request, according to court documents. A man named Larry Vickers, who held popular firearms-tactics training sessions for law enforcement, needed a favor: Could Sawyer help him import a machine gun into the country? All he had to do was write a letter that would be submitted to the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives saying his one-man department was interested in buying the highly restricted weapon.

Vickers was no ordinary instructor. He was a Delta Force veteran, revered by military veterans and cops, whose gun videos got millions of views on YouTube. Sawyer agreed to help. The chief went on to write letters saying his department was possibly interested in buying 73 different firearms, including machine guns and short-barreled rifles, prosecutors allege. He never saw the guns. The letters allowed Vickers and his associates to keep or sell them.

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“You’re the only one I’ve ever done these for because I consider you a good friend, brother,” Sawyer wrote to Vickers in 2018, according to federal court documents.

Federal prosecutors in Maryland last October announced that a grand jury indicted Sawyer, Vickers and several others for conspiracy to illegally acquire machine guns. Prosecutors allege that dealers and police officials from around the country worked together to illegally import numerous heavily regulated weapons into the U.S. The sprawling gunrunning operation has entangled a former Homeland Security analyst and the former sheriff of the most populous county in New Mexico.

Most of the defendants have yet to enter pleas, but Vickers shocked his fans, many of whom believe he was unfairly targeted, by pleading guilty in October to participating in the gun-import operation as well as other charges. He faces at least five years in prison.

“I own my actions and understand the consequences—big-boy rules as many of us, myself included, have said in the past,” Vickers said, according to a post on his Facebook account.

Sawyer, who resigned from his post months before he was charged, also faces five years in prison if convicted. Neither Sawyer nor his lawyer responded to requests for comment.


According to court documents, Sean Reidpath Sullivan helped export two Swiss rifles in 2019. In a text exchange, Larry Vickers expressed interest in the lower rifle, prosecutors say.
The federal government first imposed tight restrictions on machine guns—which fire continuously with one pull of the trigger—and short-barreled rifles in 1934 to crack down on their use by gangsters and bootleggers. Anyone wanting to buy one had to register it with the federal government and pay a special tax.

In 1986, President Ronald Reagan signed a law that banned the manufacturing of new machine guns for sale to civilians. Legal machine guns—those made before 1986—have since soared in value because of their limited number. A fully automatic M16 is worth between $40,000 and $60,000, according to industry experts. Their owners are usually wealthy gun collectors.

There was an exception. Dealers could still get new machine guns to show off to police departments that were interested in buying them for their SWAT teams. All the dealer had to do was get a letter from the police department and submit it to the ATF, a division of the Justice Department. If police officials liked what they saw, they could make the purchase.

But some dealers began using the process to bring guns into the country without any intention of selling them to police agencies, prosecutors and industry experts say.

“People started abusing it,” said a gun-industry consultant. “Now you’ve got guys bringing in hundreds of machine guns a year.”

In recent years, authorities have begun to crack down. A Maryland sheriff was indicted last year for writing letters to help get machine guns that a local shooting-range owner allegedly rented out to his customers. The sheriff has pleaded not guilty. Deputies from a small Pennsylvania sheriff’s department and a gun dealer were sentenced to prison time in 2017 and 2018 for illegally importing machine guns and selling the parts.

Federal and local law-enforcement officials are making changes to their policies. One sheriff’s department ensnared in the case has stopped issuing such letters. The ATF increased scrutiny of such transactions.

“When we see indications of noncompliance or unlawful activity, we appropriately respond,” an agency spokeswoman said. “We have enhanced review of these transfers.”

She declined to comment on the Vickers case.

The government hasn’t presented any evidence in the Vickers case that the guns ended up being used in violent crime. But federal prosecutors say their effort to reduce gun violence includes cracking down on illegal gun trafficking and possession.

“Law-enforcement officers who engage in this criminal behavior are not above the law,” said Marcia Lubin, spokeswoman for the U.S. attorney’s office in Maryland, which is heading prosecution of the case.

Mr_Big_Koch

It was a single gun sold online by an Arizona man with the username “Mr_Big_Koch” that played a vital role in cracking the case.

Christopher Fiorentino dabbled in bitcoin, real estate and firearms made by the German company
Heckler & Koch
, hence his username on an online gun marketplace. He lived in a wealthy Phoenix suburb, and owned an Aston Martin and a Mercedes-Benz G wagon.

Investigators at the ATF grew suspicious when a dealer in Florida reported that a gun it had purchased from Fiorentino appeared to be a highly regulated short-barreled rifle. They discovered that Mr_Big_Koch was selling a lot of guns and didn’t have a dealer’s license, prosecutors allege.

When ATF agents raided the condo Fiorentino shared with his fiancée, they found more than 60 guns, including four short-barreled rifles that he hadn’t registered with the federal government, prosecutors allege. They also discovered that he had a Heckler & Koch machine gun that wasn’t registered.

But it was his phone that revealed a much broader web. There were WhatsApp messages between Fiorentino and a former Homeland Security analyst named Sean Reidpath Sullivan who had a side business importing guns from Europe. Prosecutors alleged that Fiorentino was buying imported guns through an alleged black-market network that Sullivan and Vickers had developed.

Fiorentino has pleaded not guilty to several charges, including possession of the unregistered guns, dealing without a license and pandemic unemployment-assistance fraud.

“Any transactions that he engaged in were through federally licensed dealers and anything they’re alleged to have been doing he was not aware of or involved in,” said Brian Russo, Fiorentino’s lawyer.

Sullivan also pleaded not guilty to illegal-gun-importation charges in September.

“We look forward to resolving in court the allegations that he unlawfully imported machine guns as part of his business,” said Jim Wyda, an attorney for Sullivan. “There is no evidence that Mr. Sullivan intended for firearms to get into the hands of dangerous people. And they didn’t.”

‘A peaceful place…a friendly face’

To make their scheme work and help get the machine guns they wanted, Vickers and Sullivan appear to have zeroed in on small-town police chiefs like Sawyer, prosecutors allege.

The grand jury also indicted Matthew Hall, who served as police chief in Coats, N.C., from 2012 to 2020. Coats has a population of about 2,200, and had seven officers and no SWAT team during Hall’s tenure. Yet during his time as chief of Coats—whose town motto is “A peaceful place…a friendly face”—Hall requested the demonstration of 92 guns, prosecutors said.

At one point, Hall—on Vickers’s behalf—requested to see a belt-fed Belgian machine gun for possible purchase for his department, prosecutors say.

Hall hasn’t entered a plea, his lawyer said.

Prosecutors don’t say whether the police chiefs got anything in return for aiding Vickers. Text exchanges between Vickers and the chiefs included in the indictment convey the chiefs’ admiration for the celebrity gun trainer. Ray officials said it is their understanding Sawyer was an avid fan of Vickers’s YouTube videos.

At least one major law-enforcement figure was involved, prosecutors say. In the indictment of Vickers, Sullivan and police chiefs Hall and Sawyer, they allege that the former sheriff of Bernalillo County, N.M., identified as M.G., along with his undersheriff, sent letters to an Albuquerque gun-shop owner requesting demonstrations of more than 1,000 guns between 2015 and 2021, even though the agency’s SWAT team began phasing out machine guns in 2013. Manny Gonzales was the sheriff during the time frame noted by prosecutors.

Prosecutors say that Gonzales, like the other law-enforcement officials involved, had no expectation the guns would ever be used by the sheriff’s office. Gonzales, who ran unsuccessfully for Albuquerque mayor in 2021 and had been a Democrat, announced a U.S. Senate bid as a Republican this month.


Manny Gonzales formerly served as the sheriff of Bernalillo County, N.M. Photo: Roberto E. Rosales/Albuquerque Journal/Zuma Press
Gonzales hasn’t been charged. A spokesman for his Senate campaign referred requests for comment to a recent FoxNews.com story in which Gonzales calls the allegations politically motivated, and said he followed the law and that his name would be cleared.

Prosecutors say the Albuquerque gun-shop owner to whom Gonzales submitted letters was helping Sullivan try to illegally obtain the weapons, and has been indicted in the scheme.

Current Bernalillo County Sheriff John Allen, said he had no information on whether any of the machine guns requested by Gonzales were ever used for demonstrations for his agency—or where the guns are now. Allen has since barred anyone in the sheriff’s office from requesting machine guns for demonstrations.

“Sheriff Allen is deeply concerned about the potential circulation of over a thousand machine guns, especially in light of Albuquerque’s challenges with gun violence,” said sheriff’s office spokeswoman Jayme Fuller.

Last February, before townspeople in Ray learned about the charges, James Sawyer submitted his resignation letter. He said his health was deteriorating and he needed to retire from law enforcement. Sawyer had been living in a city-owned trailer and said he was moving back home to Alabama.

For Vickers, the felony conviction means that one of the nation’s leading gun gurus can no longer own or possess firearms. He must forfeit his gun collection to the U.S. government. Prosecutors said he can still use airsoft guns, but only for active-shooter training.

“Nothing could be a greater punishment for him than his inability to possess, use and demonstrate the use of firearms,” said Gerald Ruter, his attorney.

Write to Dan Frosch at [email protected] and Zusha Elinson at [email protected]

[WaffleTwineFaceoff]

I know of no one in the gun policy debates on either side of the issue who feels Vickers doesn’t deserve exactly what his criminal actions earned him. Came up on some blogs and podcasts in the recent months, to head scratching amazement of all. No excuse is valid. Justice is being served. Any yahoo acolytes claiming otherwise are fringe idiots, and can cut the line to do that barrel sucking you suggest. Vicker’s combo of arrogance, entitlement and stupidity are an affront to law abiding non criminal gun owners throughout the land. Hope his cohorts go down hard, too.

The oddest thing of all is he had the resources to legally acquire a man cave full of NFA fully auto items through existing legal channels. Moronic. Apparently his inflated ego was well known in the industry.

[MDlaxfan76]

I know of no one in the gun policy debates on either side of the issue who feels Vickers doesn’t deserve exactly what his criminal actions earned him. Came up on some blogs and podcasts in the recent months, to head scratching amazement of all. No excuse is valid. Justice is being served. Any yahoo acolytes claiming otherwise are fringe idiots, and can cut the line to do that barrel sucking you suggest. Vicker’s combo of arrogance, entitlement and stupidity are an affront to law abiding non criminal gun owners throughout the land. Hope his cohorts go down hard, too.

The oddest thing of all is he had the resources to legally acquire a man cave full of NFA fully auto items through existing legal channels. Moronic. Apparently his inflated ego was well known in the industry.

Agree on your view of Vickers and those "yahoo acolytes" and "fringe idiots" but there are a heck of a lot of them.

But really "no one in the gun policy debates"? How do you define who is in these "policy debates" and who is not?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-CXGGdsfyhA

Tons of pro Vickers videos talking about the case. Comments sections off the hook...

Here's two pro gun guys being quite reasonable (as you are), but look at the comments thread!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1jqCFpvdKYo

[cradleandshoot]

Happy Thursday!

https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/04/us/iowa- ... index.html

Just the price of a robust Second Amendment. Reporting one dead right now.

Sensible gun legislation is a bridge too far……we need to do something about Drag Queen Storytime

Can you define what "sensible gun control " should look like? It is a lot like beauty, it exists in the eye of the beholder. Realistically there is no one solution that makes everyone happy.

[youthathletics]

Will be interesting to see how this pans out....so far, reporting indicates positive outcome: https://www.instagram.com/reel/C2Pvzulu ... _copy_link

#qfp

[NattyBohChamps04]

Will be interesting to see how this pans out....so far, reporting indicates positive outcome: https://www.instagram.com/reel/C2Pvzulu ... _copy_link

The entire country saw an 8-10% decrease in deaths and injuries from gun violence from 2022-2023. Ohio's carry law had probably nothing to do with their rates.

https://www.axios.com/2024/01/09/mass-s ... ce-us-2023

[WaffleTwineFaceoff]

Will be interesting to see how this pans out....so far, reporting indicates positive outcome: https://www.instagram.com/reel/C2Pvzulu ... _copy_link

The entire country saw an 8-10% decrease in deaths and injuries from gun violence from 2022-2023. Ohio's carry law had probably nothing to do with their rates.

https://www.axios.com/2024/01/09/mass-s ... ce-us-2023

The "constitutional carry" debates and data "curation" gets us into the weeds very quickly. My dives into the topic has brought me to a few things I feel are pertinent. I'll share them, with no endeavor other than to suggest you can do the same. Draw your own conclusions.

The axios link above bases their data on the Gun Violence Archive. Right off the bat for me puts me on alert. Why? GVA's dubious methodology gerrymandering. Unfortunately, MSM, our political leaders, and lobbying interests quote and requote the GVA, thus creating an "if we just say it enough, it becomes truth" echo chamber which imho is counter productive to identifying and addressing actual root causes (and thus suggestiong paths toward effective solutions) to the myriad elements of criminal violence and murder in America.

My best analogy for the GVA is if CRIMINAL gun violence is envisioned as a pizza, then the GVA takes the slices of that pizza - each of which is 1) a different size (reflecting a particular TYPE of violence's percentage share of the overall total) and 2) has different toppings (the gang violence slice has unique toppings, the family annihilation slice has unique toppings, the Mass Public Shooter slice has unique toppings, etc.) - and puts those slices of different sizes and toppings into a blender to create a uniquely unrealistic and misleading "uniform pizza with equal sized slices with uniform toppings" statistic that is then packaged for public consumption, acceptance, and a desired effect by, yup, press, politicians and lobbying interests. Happens on the right, and in my personal opinion is an epidemic on the left. No, I'm not MAGA, don't watch Fox, 0-2 voting for Trump, will never vote for trump, registered D voter (lifelong), and never seen a Tucker episode.

Speaking of GVA, I am taking a completely separate set of statistics lumped by GVA - suicides - out of the above mentioned pizza altogether. Piling in suicide by firearm as "gun violence" simply does not compute in my mind, and I am skeptical of any such conflation into actual criminal gun violence numbers. Suicide in an entirely separate "pizza". In America, roughly 50% is by firearm for men, and 50% is by poison, asphyxiation, and gravity. Depending on sources, those percentages can vary +/- 5%. We don't hear about gravity violence, rope violence, or pill violence. Are guns extremely effective in terms of suicide success rate? Yes. Is suicide an extremely prevalent public health crisis issue? Yes. In the meantime, America has lower suicide rates than heavily gun restricted "first world peer" nations including France, Switzerland, Hungary, Japan, Belgium, South Korea, Austria, Poland, India, and Finland, among others. So when we talk about suicide, let's do so in a meaningful, and granular way, and not utilize it as a convenient - like GVA and it's acolytes in the press, political, and lobbying - "gun violence" numbers padding tool.

Back on point regarding right to carry: What is exceedingly difficult to how to attribute the passing of permit less carry laws in a state correlate to violence in the state. Difficult to control statistically, assess regarding causation vs. correlation, and put in context with regard to larger trends at work in society related to violence. I feel this article is an illuminating one in terms of trying to unpack much of this difficult to unpack and attribute data:

https://manhattan.institute/article/mor ... lent-crime

A few things I will share in terms of my thinking is three pertinent (to me) facts:

1) Concealed carry permit holders, and constitutional carry citizens, are responsible for a nearly negligible amount of CRIMINAL gun violence. Law abiding citizens with guns are kind of really law abiding.

2) DGU's - Defensive Gun Uses (the majority of which never result in a gun being carried by a law abiding citizen even being unholstered - and thus are rarely reported) are an "inconvenient truth" for those who wish to portray gun ownership as unnecessary for anyone's safety, and some sort of portent of a bunch of wild west hero wannabe's about to take matters into their own hands. DGU occurences are estimated in the low end at 100,000 incidents per year - and the high end at more than 1,000,000 per year. I think of a DGU as this: A criminal comes across a potential victim. The potential victim has chosen to actively exercise a right to protect their life, liberty, and pursuit of happiness. The criminal, realizing this, has their intent to victimize redirected. And the creation of a new victim of criminal violence in America has thus been thwarted.

3) Violence and gun violence is purposefully looked at on a statewide level. The press, politicians, and lobbying interests are all focused on "Red" vs. "Blue". There have been some incredibly illuminating violence (and gun violence) studies which actually look at the criminal violence based on counties and municipalities and how these much more meaningful statistically data centers contribute within a particular state. When this level of granular scrutiny is applied, broad and blunt proclamations unravel or reverse. Small pockets contribute extremely robust "beyond their fair share" violence numbers, regardless of where that pocket resides in terms of a state (Red or Blue). This is another inconvenient truth for many depending on their desired narrative - or if we choose an exceptional opportunity for crafting effective legislation - and carry through utilizing existing laws. And, just another reason to be skeptical of sound bites and billboard lobbying slogans and proclamations.

I think a few more states in 2024 are on track to become constitutional carry ones. I am sure data regarding whether permit less carry will continue to be gathered and scrutinized.

As always, most violence (and gun violence) is being perpetrated by criminals (and gun violence perpetrating criminals) behaving criminally. Until the individual and unique pizza slices are acknowledged, addressed, and framed for the public in an earnest fashion, we will stay divided, confused, emotional, off-target, and stuck. Just my .02

[jhu72]

Will be interesting to see how this pans out....so far, reporting indicates positive outcome: https://www.instagram.com/reel/C2Pvzulu ... _copy_link

The entire country saw an 8-10% decrease in deaths and injuries from gun violence from 2022-2023. Ohio's carry law had probably nothing to do with their rates.

https://www.axios.com/2024/01/09/mass-s ... ce-us-2023

Yup. Big city murder rates down big time. Baltimore was down 20% YOY. It's Biden that deserves the credit.

[youthathletics]

Will be interesting to see how this pans out....so far, reporting indicates positive outcome: https://www.instagram.com/reel/C2Pvzulu ... _copy_link

The entire country saw an 8-10% decrease in deaths and injuries from gun violence from 2022-2023. Ohio's carry law had probably nothing to do with their rates.

https://www.axios.com/2024/01/09/mass-s ... ce-us-2023

The "constitutional carry" debates and data "curation" gets us into the weeds very quickly. My dives into the topic has brought me to a few things I feel are pertinent. I'll share them, with no endeavor other than to suggest you can do the same. Draw your own conclusions.

The axios link above bases their data on the Gun Violence Archive. Right off the bat for me puts me on alert. Why? GVA's dubious methodology gerrymandering. Unfortunately, MSM, our political leaders, and lobbying interests quote and requote the GVA, thus creating an "if we just say it enough, it becomes truth" echo chamber which imho is counter productive to identifying and addressing actual root causes (and thus suggestiong paths toward effective solutions) to the myriad elements of criminal violence and murder in America.

My best analogy for the GVA is if CRIMINAL gun violence is envisioned as a pizza, then the GVA takes the slices of that pizza - each of which is 1) a different size (reflecting a particular TYPE of violence's percentage share of the overall total) and 2) has different toppings (the gang violence slice has unique toppings, the family annihilation slice has unique toppings, the Mass Public Shooter slice has unique toppings, etc.) - and puts those slices of different sizes and toppings into a blender to create a uniquely unrealistic and misleading "uniform pizza with equal sized slices with uniform toppings" statistic that is then packaged for public consumption, acceptance, and a desired effect by, yup, press, politicians and lobbying interests. Happens on the right, and in my personal opinion is an epidemic on the left. No, I'm not MAGA, don't watch Fox, 0-2 voting for Trump, will never vote for trump, registered D voter (lifelong), and never seen a Tucker episode.

Speaking of GVA, I am taking a completely separate set of statistics lumped by GVA - suicides - out of the above mentioned pizza altogether. Piling in suicide by firearm as "gun violence" simply does not compute in my mind, and I am skeptical of any such conflation into actual criminal gun violence numbers. Suicide in an entirely separate "pizza". In America, roughly 50% is by firearm for men, and 50% is by poison, asphyxiation, and gravity. Depending on sources, those percentages can vary +/- 5%. We don't hear about gravity violence, rope violence, or pill violence. Are guns extremely effective in terms of suicide success rate? Yes. Is suicide an extremely prevalent public health crisis issue? Yes. In the meantime, America has lower suicide rates than heavily gun restricted "first world peer" nations including France, Switzerland, Hungary, Japan, Belgium, South Korea, Austria, Poland, India, and Finland, among others. So when we talk about suicide, let's do so in a meaningful, and granular way, and not utilize it as a convenient - like GVA and it's acolytes in the press, political, and lobbying - "gun violence" numbers padding tool.

Back on point regarding right to carry: What is exceedingly difficult to how to attribute the passing of permit less carry laws in a state correlate to violence in the state. Difficult to control statistically, assess regarding causation vs. correlation, and put in context with regard to larger trends at work in society related to violence. I feel this article is an illuminating one in terms of trying to unpack much of this difficult to unpack and attribute data:

https://manhattan.institute/article/mor ... lent-crime

A few things I will share in terms of my thinking is three pertinent (to me) facts:

1) Concealed carry permit holders, and constitutional carry citizens, are responsible for a nearly negligible amount of CRIMINAL gun violence. Law abiding citizens with guns are kind of really law abiding.

2) DGU's - Defensive Gun Uses (the majority of which never result in a gun being carried by a law abiding citizen even being unholstered - and thus are rarely reported) are an "inconvenient truth" for those who wish to portray gun ownership as unnecessary for anyone's safety, and some sort of portent of a bunch of wild west hero wannabe's about to take matters into their own hands. DGU occurences are estimated in the low end at 100,000 incidents per year - and the high end at more than 1,000,000 per year. I think of a DGU as this: A criminal comes across a potential victim. The potential victim has chosen to actively exercise a right to protect their life, liberty, and pursuit of happiness. The criminal, realizing this, has their intent to victimize redirected. And the creation of a new victim of criminal violence in America has thus been thwarted.

3) Violence and gun violence is purposefully looked at on a statewide level. The press, politicians, and lobbying interests are all focused on "Red" vs. "Blue". There have been some incredibly illuminating violence (and gun violence) studies which actually look at the criminal violence based on counties and municipalities and how these much more meaningful statistically data centers contribute within a particular state. When this level of granular scrutiny is applied, broad and blunt proclamations unravel or reverse. Small pockets contribute extremely robust "beyond their fair share" violence numbers, regardless of where that pocket resides in terms of a state (Red or Blue). This is another inconvenient truth for many depending on their desired narrative - or if we choose an exceptional opportunity for crafting effective legislation - and carry through utilizing existing laws. And, just another reason to be skeptical of sound bites and billboard lobbying slogans and proclamations.

I think a few more states in 2024 are on track to become constitutional carry ones. I am sure data regarding whether permit less carry will continue to be gathered and scrutinized.

As always, most violence (and gun violence) is being perpetrated by criminals (and gun violence perpetrating criminals) behaving criminally. Until the individual and unique pizza slices are acknowledged, addressed, and framed for the public in an earnest fashion, we will stay divided, confused, emotional, off-target, and stuck. Just my .02

Wells said, and as usual, becomes overly complicated.

[NattyBohChamps04]

Will be interesting to see how this pans out....so far, reporting indicates positive outcome: https://www.instagram.com/reel/C2Pvzulu ... _copy_link

The entire country saw an 8-10% decrease in deaths and injuries from gun violence from 2022-2023. Ohio's carry law had probably nothing to do with their rates.

https://www.axios.com/2024/01/09/mass-s ... ce-us-2023

The "constitutional carry" debates and data "curation" gets us into the weeds very quickly. My dives into the topic has brought me to a few things I feel are pertinent. I'll share them, with no endeavor other than to suggest you can do the same. Draw your own conclusions.

The axios link above bases their data on the Gun Violence Archive. Right off the bat for me puts me on alert. Why? GVA's dubious methodology gerrymandering. Unfortunately, MSM, our political leaders, and lobbying interests quote and requote the GVA, thus creating an "if we just say it enough, it becomes truth" echo chamber which imho is counter productive to identifying and addressing actual root causes (and thus suggestiong paths toward effective solutions) to the myriad elements of criminal violence and murder in America.

My best analogy for the GVA is if CRIMINAL gun violence is envisioned as a pizza, then the GVA takes the slices of that pizza - each of which is 1) a different size (reflecting a particular TYPE of violence's percentage share of the overall total) and 2) has different toppings (the gang violence slice has unique toppings, the family annihilation slice has unique toppings, the Mass Public Shooter slice has unique toppings, etc.) - and puts those slices of different sizes and toppings into a blender to create a uniquely unrealistic and misleading "uniform pizza with equal sized slices with uniform toppings" statistic that is then packaged for public consumption, acceptance, and a desired effect by, yup, press, politicians and lobbying interests. Happens on the right, and in my personal opinion is an epidemic on the left. No, I'm not MAGA, don't watch Fox, 0-2 voting for Trump, will never vote for trump, registered D voter (lifelong), and never seen a Tucker episode.

Speaking of GVA, I am taking a completely separate set of statistics lumped by GVA - suicides - out of the above mentioned pizza altogether. Piling in suicide by firearm as "gun violence" simply does not compute in my mind, and I am skeptical of any such conflation into actual criminal gun violence numbers. Suicide in an entirely separate "pizza". In America, roughly 50% is by firearm for men, and 50% is by poison, asphyxiation, and gravity. Depending on sources, those percentages can vary +/- 5%. We don't hear about gravity violence, rope violence, or pill violence. Are guns extremely effective in terms of suicide success rate? Yes. Is suicide an extremely prevalent public health crisis issue? Yes. In the meantime, America has lower suicide rates than heavily gun restricted "first world peer" nations including France, Switzerland, Hungary, Japan, Belgium, South Korea, Austria, Poland, India, and Finland, among others. So when we talk about suicide, let's do so in a meaningful, and granular way, and not utilize it as a convenient - like GVA and it's acolytes in the press, political, and lobbying - "gun violence" numbers padding tool.

Back on point regarding right to carry: What is exceedingly difficult to how to attribute the passing of permit less carry laws in a state correlate to violence in the state. Difficult to control statistically, assess regarding causation vs. correlation, and put in context with regard to larger trends at work in society related to violence. I feel this article is an illuminating one in terms of trying to unpack much of this difficult to unpack and attribute data:

https://manhattan.institute/article/mor ... lent-crime

A few things I will share in terms of my thinking is three pertinent (to me) facts:

1) Concealed carry permit holders, and constitutional carry citizens, are responsible for a nearly negligible amount of CRIMINAL gun violence. Law abiding citizens with guns are kind of really law abiding.

2) DGU's - Defensive Gun Uses (the majority of which never result in a gun being carried by a law abiding citizen even being unholstered - and thus are rarely reported) are an "inconvenient truth" for those who wish to portray gun ownership as unnecessary for anyone's safety, and some sort of portent of a bunch of wild west hero wannabe's about to take matters into their own hands. DGU occurences are estimated in the low end at 100,000 incidents per year - and the high end at more than 1,000,000 per year. I think of a DGU as this: A criminal comes across a potential victim. The potential victim has chosen to actively exercise a right to protect their life, liberty, and pursuit of happiness. The criminal, realizing this, has their intent to victimize redirected. And the creation of a new victim of criminal violence in America has thus been thwarted.

3) Violence and gun violence is purposefully looked at on a statewide level. The press, politicians, and lobbying interests are all focused on "Red" vs. "Blue". There have been some incredibly illuminating violence (and gun violence) studies which actually look at the criminal violence based on counties and municipalities and how these much more meaningful statistically data centers contribute within a particular state. When this level of granular scrutiny is applied, broad and blunt proclamations unravel or reverse. Small pockets contribute extremely robust "beyond their fair share" violence numbers, regardless of where that pocket resides in terms of a state (Red or Blue). This is another inconvenient truth for many depending on their desired narrative - or if we choose an exceptional opportunity for crafting effective legislation - and carry through utilizing existing laws. And, just another reason to be skeptical of sound bites and billboard lobbying slogans and proclamations.

I think a few more states in 2024 are on track to become constitutional carry ones. I am sure data regarding whether permit less carry will continue to be gathered and scrutinized.

As always, most violence (and gun violence) is being perpetrated by criminals (and gun violence perpetrating criminals) behaving criminally. Until the individual and unique pizza slices are acknowledged, addressed, and framed for the public in an earnest fashion, we will stay divided, confused, emotional, off-target, and stuck. Just my .02

We can look at stats from the FBI and CDC if you don't like that previous source. For instance Tennessee passed constitutional carry in April 2021. 2020 death rate was 21.3 and 2021 was 22.8 (deaths per 100,000 people).

Of course that's cherry picking one piece of data, similar to what YA's instagram post did.

There's been a number of studies on various carry laws and rates of gun violence. They're out there to find and look up. Here's a more conservative outlet:

States with relaxed concealed carry laws see spike in violent crime: Studies

Poverty and easy access to guns (mostly stolen) is not a great combo. And the pro-gun people generally aren't tackling the poverty issue.

I'd prefer to eliminate the gun violence before a DGU is necessary.

[NattyBohChamps04]

A few things I will share in terms of my thinking is three pertinent (to me) facts:

1) Concealed carry permit holders, and constitutional carry citizens, are responsible for a nearly negligible amount of CRIMINAL gun violence. Law abiding citizens with guns are kind of really law abiding.

2) DGU's - Defensive Gun Uses (the majority of which never result in a gun being carried by a law abiding citizen even being unholstered - and thus are rarely reported) are an "inconvenient truth" for those who wish to portray gun ownership as unnecessary for anyone's safety, and some sort of portent of a bunch of wild west hero wannabe's about to take matters into their own hands. DGU occurences are estimated in the low end at 100,000 incidents per year - and the high end at more than 1,000,000 per year. I think of a DGU as this: A criminal comes across a potential victim. The potential victim has chosen to actively exercise a right to protect their life, liberty, and pursuit of happiness. The criminal, realizing this, has their intent to victimize redirected. And the creation of a new victim of criminal violence in America has thus been thwarted.

3) Violence and gun violence is purposefully looked at on a statewide level. The press, politicians, and lobbying interests are all focused on "Red" vs. "Blue". There have been some incredibly illuminating violence (and gun violence) studies which actually look at the criminal violence based on counties and municipalities and how these much more meaningful statistically data centers contribute within a particular state. When this level of granular scrutiny is applied, broad and blunt proclamations unravel or reverse. Small pockets contribute extremely robust "beyond their fair share" violence numbers, regardless of where that pocket resides in terms of a state (Red or Blue). This is another inconvenient truth for many depending on their desired narrative - or if we choose an exceptional opportunity for crafting effective legislation - and carry through utilizing existing laws. And, just another reason to be skeptical of sound bites and billboard lobbying slogans and proclamations.

Wanted to address your points separately.

1) You are correct. The problem is that hundreds of thousands of guns are stolen each year from law abiding gun owners. They also leave them on the back of the toilet. Or on coffee tables. Or other places where they are found by kids and others. The more guns out there means more guns to be stolen by criminals, and more accidents. I don't carry, and if the kids or a criminal wants to get my guns, they have to get through a locked door, then into a large safe. Possible, but a lot harder than a smash and grab of a car with a M&P or Glock sticker on it.

2) DGUs are wildly tough to define and estimate and categorize. Hence the nearly 2 orders of magnitude difference in the lower bounds and upper bounds in the various studies over the years. like Hemenway at 55,000 and NSPOF at 4,700,000. But yes, they do happen. The problem is that there are millions of criminals out there who don't care or are too stupid to know if someone else is armed. Heck, you have criminals trying to rob gun stores during the day. And a lot of violence and gun deaths occurs where victims wouldn't necessarily have access to their gun or having it wouldn't matter. Crimes of passion, mass shootings, lots of domestic violence incidents, drive-bys, etc. Certainly hope you're not carrying if you're out at a tailgate having some beers. Speaking of drive-bys, how much gang violence occurs where everyone is carrying? And they know everyone is carrying. Constitutional carry is gonna do diddly for gang violence and lots of other crime. And one person's DGU is another person's illegal brandishing in a survey.

3) The media (and people here) regularly break it down by city to demonize a few Democratic cities. Which do have a lot of problems. And people on the other side retort with the even more violent poverty-stricken rural red counties in the south. If you read this thread, and the years and years of discussion prior? You'll see gun violence regularly broken down by country, state, county, city and neighborhood. We've discussed it ad nauseum. And yes, Chicago as a city is very different depending what neighborhood you're in. Now, It's a nation-wide problem of varying degrees in different areas based on many factors. One of the biggest, as I've mentioned, is how wealthy an area is.

And yes, it's unfortunately reduced to simple instagram "gotchas" way too often.

[Seacoaster(1)]

The Uvalde report is just heartbreaking. And there is no better advertisement for banning assault rifles than 19 students and teachers dead, and five school officers, eight federal DEA agents, 13 U.S. Marshals, 16 sheriff’s deputies, 25 Uvalde officers, 69 officers of nearby law enforcement, 91 state police officers plus 149 U.S. Border Patrol agents being scared of 1 shooter with an AR-15. The Good Guys had plenty of guns. The question is why did they ever need to face a guy with an assault weapon.

[njbill]

Very well said.

[WaffleTwineFaceoff]

Appreciate the various thoughts, replies, insights above.

Regarding the Uvalde report, it is discouraging on many levels. I won't wade in on the assault weapon aspect for this one. I have strong opinions and unpopular ones regarding their definition, ownership, use, and prevalence (or more accurately lack thereof) in criminal gun murder.

I will throw out what is most frustrating and head-scratching to me, which I have touched upon numerous times in previous posts. The overwhelming majority of Mass Public Shootings, when assessed focusing on NOT the day of shooting incident but rather on the days and weeks and months and in many cases years BEFORE/Leading up to the day of shooting incident, frustratingly and sadly repeat a clear narrative: that warning signs, sirens, and bells were BLARING with regard to those who knew the perpetrator. Family, friends, classmates, teachers, law enforcement, counselors - one or more or all - knew, sensed, feared - socially, medically, legally, criminally - more than enough to compel an intervention to off ramp tomorrow's mass public shooter TODAY.

A great read or Audible is "Stop the Killing" by Katherine Schweit, former head of FBI active shooter program. She headed up a task force formed by Obama after the Sandy Hook shooting, of which Biden was a participant, and the development of an effective fact and field experience based program (toolkit) to identify and intervene BEFORE a shot would be fired.

What is so frustrating is that Uvalde is a textbook example of myriad glaring and missed intervention opportunities. That is where my outrage and sadness focus. We have the tools. But you barely hear the press, politicians, or lobbying interests mention them, ever. They are a big part of the problem, imho.

You name the Mass Public Shooting, and the warning signs were in place before the killer opened their eyes the morning they perpetrated their atrocity.

[WaffleTwineFaceoff]

Sensible gun safety at work? Let's keep allowing those perpetrating criminal gun offenses to post bail, and head back out into society to magically become good citizens. Except when they don't, and they kill 8 people during a little murder with a criminally owned firearm spree:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/8- ... rcna135176

One year ago, after being identified as a suspect in a drive by shooting/road rage incident, police caught up with Romeo. Nance put up a struggle as they attempted to take him into custody. Police said officers found a loaded gun in the car. He was charged with aggravated discharge of a weapon, aggravated unlawful use of a weapon, aggravated assault, reckless discharge of a firearm and obstructing a peace officer. Next steps for our legal system? Hey, let's let him out on bail. What could possibly go wrong? County jail records indicate he was freed after posting $10,000 of his $100,000 bail. Smfh.

Even better, Illinois' SAFE-T Act established cashless bail last September. More brilliant! It's an outrage he had to post a $10k bail in the first place! Future violent arrested folks perpetrating illegal firearm offenses will just...walk right out the door of the precinct after the inconvenience of an hour or two of processing.

Would all law abiding citizens who own and utilize guns legally kindly report to the nearest government facility to hand them in. You are the problem. You are unsafe to society! And the government has got the public safety thing covered.

[a fan]

Sensible gun safety at work? Let's keep allowing those perpetrating criminal gun offenses to post bail, and head back out into society to magically become good citizens. Except when they don't, and they kill 8 people during a little murder with a criminally owned firearm spree:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/8- ... rcna135176

One year ago, after being identified as a suspect in a drive by shooting/road rage incident, police caught up with Romeo. Nance put up a struggle as they attempted to take him into custody. Police said officers found a loaded gun in the car. He was charged with aggravated discharge of a weapon, aggravated unlawful use of a weapon, aggravated assault, reckless discharge of a firearm and obstructing a peace officer. Next steps for our legal system? Hey, let's let him out on bail. What could possibly go wrong? County jail records indicate he was freed after posting $10,000 of his $100,000 bail. Smfh.

Even better, Illinois' SAFE-T Act established cashless bail last September. More brilliant! It's an outrage he had to post a $10k bail in the first place! Future violent arrested folks perpetrating illegal firearm offenses will just...walk right out the door of the precinct after the inconvenience of an hour or two of processing.

Then reach out to your Federal and State leaders. Tell them to raise taxes so we can build even more jails....we don't have enough to do what you are asking.

And then throw everyone in jail without bail while they await trial...... for any allegation that includes violence.

[Olderbarndog]

https://pandora.app.link/hkezzZ1GHGb

Preach Buddy Guy, preach!

[cradleandshoot]

https://pandora.app.link/hkezzZ1GHGb

Preach Buddy Guy, preach!

Buddy guy, my man. I use to be able to play strong persuader on my accoustic guitar. What a great tune it is. She was right next door and such a strong persuader

Hold the phone, my bad... Robert Cray did strong persuader. I still use to be able to play it. Point of order I played it on my acoustic guitar. Robert Cray made his Fender sing playing this classic tune. This carries on the never ending debate between a Les Paul and a Fender strat. There is no Les Paul that will ever outdo a Fender Strat if your flat out down and dirty playing the blues.