old salt wrote: ↑Fri Mar 25, 2022 10:25 pm From behind the NRO paywall. More hints of a cease fire in place & negotiated settlement.https://www.nationalreview.com/2022/03/ ... r-weapons/
Ukrainians Frustrated by U.S. Reluctance to Transfer Anti-Ship Missiles, Other Weapons
A source told NR that the weapons will eventually be delivered — ‘it’ll just be when a lot of people are dead.’
One month after the start of the Russian invasion, Kyiv’s calls to the U.S. and European NATO countries to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine have grown softer. Ukrainian officials are now laser-focused on a new, more attainable ask: more weapons from the U.S. and other Western allies with which to launch attacks on Russian positions.
Washington’s slow effort to provide these weapons to the Ukrainians has frustrated leaders in Kyiv, notwithstanding U.S. claims that the administration is moving swiftly and effectively to shore up Ukraine’s position.
During a virtual appearance at an Atlantic Council webinar today, Andriy Yermak, the head of Volodymyr Zelensky’s presidential office, expressed appreciation for weapons transfers from Washington. “But honestly,” he added, “we need more, and need quick.” Yermak also rattled off a list of weapons his country is requesting, including anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles, small arms, and heavier systems, including multiple rocket launchers and long-range artillery.
Ukraine needs the capability to break through Russian lines to recapture territory seized during the invasion, said a source who speaks regularly with senior Ukrainian officials, as President Biden rallied NATO leaders in Brussels yesterday and prepared to visit Poland. But the White House is reluctant to give Kyiv the weapons to do that.
“There’s no interest to give Ukraine counteroffensive capacity. Until that happens, Putin’s game in Ukraine will not change,” the source, who was granted anonymity to candidly discuss the Ukrainian leadership’s perspective, told National Review. “The administration actually thinks that by not provoking Putin you’re de-escalating. Well, quite the opposite.”
Counteroffensive capabilities also include tanks, planes, anti-ship missiles, and high-altitude missiles. During an address to a NATO summit on Thursday, Zelensky requested 1 percent of the alliance’s stocks of those systems. “The only thing I ask of you after this one month of war,” he said, preempting a potential objection, is “please do not tell us that our army is not up to NATO’s standards.”
The Ukrainians have shown that they can do all of the fighting themselves, if President Biden and other leaders empower them to do so.
Ukraine has begun some small counteroffensives in recent days, according to the Institute for the Study of War, which is tracking the conflict. Mounting those counterattacks matters immensely for any negotiated settlement reached between Moscow and Kyiv. Moscow’s advances have been stalled in some places, but the Russian forces have still made alarming progress in recent weeks. If Ukraine doesn’t hold Russian-occupied territory when the talks reach a conclusion, it might be forced to cede much of it.
Although the Biden administration has moved to provide Kyiv with some $2 billion in security assistance, including $1 billion in the past week, the focus up to now has been on Stinger anti-aircraft missiles and Javelin anti-tank missiles.
While that’s made a significant difference on the battlefield, there’s been a reluctance to provide more, as shown by the administration’s headline-grabbing refusal to help Poland transfer MiG jets to Ukraine because the planes are “offensive” in nature. The White House has said that it’s wary of transferring weapons that could be perceived by the Kremlin as escalatory, leaving Kyiv in the lurch and Warsaw unable to act.
Washington’s hesitancy can also be seen in the glacial pace of getting weapons to Ukraine. According to a senior administration official who briefed reporters yesterday, the U.S. has — one month into the Russian attack — “started consulting with allies on providing” anti-ship missiles but also noted “there may be some technical challenges with making that happen.”
Ukrainian officials still want Soviet-era jets, such as the MiGs, and it’s unclear where their latest requests for tanks stand. Reached for comment, the National Security Council referred NR to the White House’s previous comments on weapons transfers and the senior administration official’s comments on discussions about anti-ship weapons and other systems.
Meanwhile, any pressure from Congress on the administration is likely to be negligible for now, if recent history is any indication.
Biden’s move to waive sanctions on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline last year prompted strong bipartisan opposition. Nevertheless, when legislation was introduced to reverse Biden’s move, the White House’s allies in the Senate voted it down. In the days immediately following the start of the invasion, of course, the president revoked the waivers, effectively killing the pipeline.
The source with knowledge of the Ukrainian government’s thinking said that Ukraine has also noticed that Senate Democrats are reluctant to break with the administration to back the transfer of counteroffensive weapons. But the person said that it will take place eventually: “Unfortunately, it’ll take another 20,000–30,000 lives before that happens. It will happen. It’ll just be when a lot of people are dead.”
The administration has signaled a willingness to speak out against Moscow’s barbarism in Ukraine, but it’s been much too slow to give the Ukrainians the means with which to push forward in a new phase in this war.
