LaxPower Back-Up Stick

ICGrad wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 2:09 pm

bearlaxfan wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 7:54 am ... can scrape three bids. (Scrape two bids?! )

I mean, look at the ACC last year. The dearth of quality OOC wins at this point may well mean that the Ivies are a one-bid league.

That's entirely possible.
Ivies have a few more shots, but there's a lot to overcome at this point.

Happens and no one should whine about it (unlike some did last year).

ICGrad wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 2:09 pm

bearlaxfan wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 7:54 am ... can scrape three bids. (Scrape two bids?! )

I mean, look at the ACC last year. The dearth of quality OOC wins at this point may well mean that the Ivies are a one-bid league.

I see 3 as the ceiling, wouldn't be surprised by 2, would be surprised by 1 (but not "attack the selection committee chair by name with misogynist invective" surprised). There's a lot of parity this year outside of UVA/Notre Dame. Maryland has that Loyola loss, Duke lost to Jacksonville, Rutgers lost to Army, Loyola got obliterated by Duke, North Carolina lost to Denver etc.

Although Yale doesn't have a "gaudy" out-of-conference win, its wins over UMass (which has beaten Army), Villanova (which has beaten Penn State), and Denver (which has beaten UNC) are solid, as is Cornell's win over Ohio State (which has beaten UNC). If BU does well in the Patriot League and Yale gets the win over them, that could be another solid out of conference win. If Yale and Cornell both do fairly well in the Ivy slate of games, they would be expected to get bids (although who knows re: seed). Somewhat less likely, but possible: If both those teams look good and somebody else wins the Ivy tournament automatic bid, maybe the Ivy League gets 3. If the Ivies really beat each other up (e.g. Yale and Cornell go 3-3 in the league), then maybe it's a 1 bid year, automatic bid only (although that still feels remote to me).

But yesterday's out of conference losses really hurt, no question.

The Orfling wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 4:42 pm

ICGrad wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 2:09 pm

bearlaxfan wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 7:54 am ... can scrape three bids. (Scrape two bids?! )

I mean, look at the ACC last year. The dearth of quality OOC wins at this point may well mean that the Ivies are a one-bid league.

I see 3 as the ceiling, wouldn't be surprised by 2, would be surprised by 1 (but not "attack the selection committee chair by name with misogynist invective" surprised). There's a lot of parity this year outside of UVA/Notre Dame. Maryland has that Loyola loss, Duke lost to Jacksonville, Rutgers lost to Army, Loyola got obliterated by Duke, North Carolina lost to Denver etc.

Although Yale doesn't have a "gaudy" out-of-conference win, its wins over UMass (which has beaten Army), Villanova (which has beaten Penn State), and Denver (which has beaten UNC) are solid, as is Cornell's win over Ohio State (which has beaten UNC). If BU does well in the Patriot League and Yale gets the win over them, that could be another solid out of conference win. If Yale and Cornell both do fairly well in the Ivy slate of games, they would be expected to get bids (although who knows re: seed). Somewhat less likely, but possible: If both those teams look good and somebody else wins the Ivy tournament automatic bid, maybe the Ivy League gets 3. If the Ivies really beat each other up (e.g. Yale and Cornell go 3-3 in the league), then maybe it's a 1 bid year, automatic bid only (although that still feels remote to me).

But yesterday's out of conference losses really hurt, no question.

Classic intransitivity.

“Gates had recognized that Buffett’s dice exhibited a curious property: No one of them was the strongest. If Gates had chosen first, then whichever die he chose, Buffett would have been able to find another die that could beat it (that is, one with more than a 50 percent chance of winning).”

https://www.wired.com/story/mathematici ... -scissors/

MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 4:36 pm

Henpecked wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 11:12 am

MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 11, 2023 6:57 pm

xxxxxxx wrote: ↑Sat Mar 11, 2023 6:41 pm Ivys been over rated all year, and all these losses will barely change their rankings.

I disagree; '23 Ivy's are certainly not going to be a 4, 5, or 6 team to NCAA league this year, and probably won't be 3 and the rankings next week will reflect the impact of these aggregate losses.

Last year was last year, this is a new year, new set of teams. We start the ranking assumptions based on past performances, players added and subtracted, etc, but we don't really know until the games get played.

Was Georgetown ranked too high? I dunno, but I'd bet they end the season better than their first 3 games...

I wouldn't be surprised to see the Ivy teams improve from here, but the way the math works, the Ivies won't have to OC wins needed to get more than 2, best case 3 into NCAA's.

But they may yet beat teams which will be higher ranked next week...hard to know at this point. That's why the games get played!

How can you disagree with this statement? He said that the Ivy League has been overrated all year. They started with 6 teams in the top 20. And three were in the top 5!! Last week Princeton was still ranked 14 despite only beating Monmouth and Manhattan. They were Ranked 4 spots ahead of Villanova who beat Delaware and Penn State. The rankings are a joke.

Yale and Cornell are the only teams that should be considered for an at-large this year. Hopefully one of them wins the Ivy Tournament.

There's a lot of lacrosse yet to be played, but when you say "the rankings are a joke", we may agree, at least insofar as preseason rankings are usually reflective of just best guesses based upon prior year, some adds and subtracts, but are entirely meaningless otherwise...mid-season rankings, which we aren't even at yet, are "more informed", but all that really matters is how teams end up.

So, I don't consider teams ranked too far or too low, pre or early season, because it's obvious that they reflect only the available minimal data...they are what they are...and then they move as teams perform, or don't, against others.

"over rated" is a particularly pejorative phrase, especially as it was used, so that's not necessary IMO.

Overrated is not a pejorative term at all. Overrated does not imply that a team or individual sucks. It just implies that the team or individual gets more recognition than is rightly deserved.

MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 4:37 pm

ICGrad wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 2:09 pm

bearlaxfan wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 7:54 am ... can scrape three bids. (Scrape two bids?! )

I mean, look at the ACC last year. The dearth of quality OOC wins at this point may well mean that the Ivies are a one-bid league.

That's entirely possible.
Ivies have a few more shots, but there's a lot to overcome at this point.

Happens and no one should whine about it (unlike some did last year).

Hopefully, unlike last year, two boyish ESPN pundits won't stake their reputations this year on a non-AQ team getting in if they win certain games. And no, Notre Dame's success this year doesn't mean they were right; it's a new year, with a lot of changes, including two players on the Irish roster who were key members of Yale's 2018 national championship squad.

Last year, the Big 10 got three teams in. This year, Hop, Michigan and especially Penn State look improved, so that conference could pick up a bid or two (maybe three?).

Last year, the ACC was a one-bid conference, and that will definitely change; three seems a likely minimum.

So if those conferences pick up a combined four bids, maybe all of those reduce the number of Ivy slots and we're down to two. Somehow, I can't imagine Quark and Kint howling in protest if Penn finishes strong, passes the eye test with flying colors, but doesn't win the ILT and therefore doesn't make the dance.

FannOLax wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 5:23 pm

MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 4:37 pm

ICGrad wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 2:09 pm

bearlaxfan wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 7:54 am ... can scrape three bids. (Scrape two bids?! )

I mean, look at the ACC last year. The dearth of quality OOC wins at this point may well mean that the Ivies are a one-bid league.

That's entirely possible.
Ivies have a few more shots, but there's a lot to overcome at this point.

Happens and no one should whine about it (unlike some did last year).

Hopefully, unlike last year, two boyish ESPN pundits won't stake their reputations this year on a non-AQ team getting in if they win certain games. And no, Notre Dame's success this year doesn't mean they were right; it's a new year, with a lot of changes, including two players on the Irish roster who were key members of Yale's 2018 national championship squad.

Last year, the Big 10 got three teams in. This year, Hop, Michigan and especially Penn State look improved, so that conference could pick up a bid or two (maybe three?).

Last year, the ACC was a one-bid conference, and that will definitely change; three seems a likely minimum.

So if those conferences pick up a combined four bids, maybe all of those reduce the number of Ivy slots and we're down to two. Somehow, I can't imagine Quark and Kint howling in protest if Penn finishes strong, passes the eye test with flying colors, but doesn't win the ILT and therefore doesn't make the dance.

Your last paragraph is the analogy to ND last season. If an Ivy team like Penn or Princeton that lost its key OOC games gets hot and goes 6-0 or 5-1 in the conference and then loses in the ILT and does not get a bid, that would replicate ND's season last year. I seriously doubt the ESPN fanboys would complain if an Ivy team is left out as compared to the ACC/Big 10. And I don't think you'd see the Ivy League fans complain for a full year if that happens. Definitely a terrible day for the Ivy League yesterday.

Henpecked wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 4:56 pm

MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 4:36 pm

Henpecked wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 11:12 am

MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 11, 2023 6:57 pm

xxxxxxx wrote: ↑Sat Mar 11, 2023 6:41 pm Ivys been over rated all year, and all these losses will barely change their rankings.

I disagree; '23 Ivy's are certainly not going to be a 4, 5, or 6 team to NCAA league this year, and probably won't be 3 and the rankings next week will reflect the impact of these aggregate losses.

Last year was last year, this is a new year, new set of teams. We start the ranking assumptions based on past performances, players added and subtracted, etc, but we don't really know until the games get played.

Was Georgetown ranked too high? I dunno, but I'd bet they end the season better than their first 3 games...

I wouldn't be surprised to see the Ivy teams improve from here, but the way the math works, the Ivies won't have to OC wins needed to get more than 2, best case 3 into NCAA's.

But they may yet beat teams which will be higher ranked next week...hard to know at this point. That's why the games get played!

How can you disagree with this statement? He said that the Ivy League has been overrated all year. They started with 6 teams in the top 20. And three were in the top 5!! Last week Princeton was still ranked 14 despite only beating Monmouth and Manhattan. They were Ranked 4 spots ahead of Villanova who beat Delaware and Penn State. The rankings are a joke.

Yale and Cornell are the only teams that should be considered for an at-large this year. Hopefully one of them wins the Ivy Tournament.

There's a lot of lacrosse yet to be played, but when you say "the rankings are a joke", we may agree, at least insofar as preseason rankings are usually reflective of just best guesses based upon prior year, some adds and subtracts, but are entirely meaningless otherwise...mid-season rankings, which we aren't even at yet, are "more informed", but all that really matters is how teams end up.

So, I don't consider teams ranked too far or too low, pre or early season, because it's obvious that they reflect only the available minimal data...they are what they are...and then they move as teams perform, or don't, against others.

"over rated" is a particularly pejorative phrase, especially as it was used, so that's not necessary IMO.

Overrated is not a pejorative term at all. Overrated does not imply that a team or individual sucks. It just implies that the team or individual gets more recognition than is rightly deserved.

"rightly deserved"?
You mean that they don't "deserve" to be considered strong players or teams based upon most recent experience...ie, last year?

I understand how one might make that claim about kids coming out of HS, before they've played any college ball, but that's not what we're talking about, right?

I don't think anyone on here is claiming that the Ivy teams will deserve more "recognition" than they'll get this coming week in the rankings...based on most recent experiences.

Henpecked wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 4:56 pm

MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 4:36 pm

Henpecked wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 11:12 am

MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 11, 2023 6:57 pm

xxxxxxx wrote: ↑Sat Mar 11, 2023 6:41 pm Ivys been over rated all year, and all these losses will barely change their rankings.

I disagree; '23 Ivy's are certainly not going to be a 4, 5, or 6 team to NCAA league this year, and probably won't be 3 and the rankings next week will reflect the impact of these aggregate losses.

Last year was last year, this is a new year, new set of teams. We start the ranking assumptions based on past performances, players added and subtracted, etc, but we don't really know until the games get played.

Was Georgetown ranked too high? I dunno, but I'd bet they end the season better than their first 3 games...

I wouldn't be surprised to see the Ivy teams improve from here, but the way the math works, the Ivies won't have to OC wins needed to get more than 2, best case 3 into NCAA's.

But they may yet beat teams which will be higher ranked next week...hard to know at this point. That's why the games get played!

How can you disagree with this statement? He said that the Ivy League has been overrated all year. They started with 6 teams in the top 20. And three were in the top 5!! Last week Princeton was still ranked 14 despite only beating Monmouth and Manhattan. They were Ranked 4 spots ahead of Villanova who beat Delaware and Penn State. The rankings are a joke.

Yale and Cornell are the only teams that should be considered for an at-large this year. Hopefully one of them wins the Ivy Tournament.

There's a lot of lacrosse yet to be played, but when you say "the rankings are a joke", we may agree, at least insofar as preseason rankings are usually reflective of just best guesses based upon prior year, some adds and subtracts, but are entirely meaningless otherwise...mid-season rankings, which we aren't even at yet, are "more informed", but all that really matters is how teams end up.

So, I don't consider teams ranked too far or too low, pre or early season, because it's obvious that they reflect only the available minimal data...they are what they are...and then they move as teams perform, or don't, against others.

"over rated" is a particularly pejorative phrase, especially as it was used, so that's not necessary IMO.

Overrated is not a pejorative term at all. Overrated does not imply that a team or individual sucks. It just implies that the team or individual gets more recognition than is rightly deserved.

In all of my years of sports, I have never seen a team or player that sucks be subjected to calls of "overrated". Have you? Usually it's good players and good teams.

Exactly. You can’t say that the NY Jets are overrated. They just suck beyond human comprehension. You can, however, say that the NY Yankees are overrated because every year they’re picked to go to the World Series and every year they fall short. Very short. EVERY F’N YEAR! Sigh.

Henpecked wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 6:46 pm Exactly. You can’t say that the NY Jets are overrated. They just suck beyond human comprehension. You can, however, say that the NY Yankees are overrated because every year they’re picked to go to the World Series and every year they fall short. Very short. EVERY F’N YEAR! Sigh.

Yep. The Yankees are overrated. They suck! I agree!!

Henpecked wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 6:46 pm Exactly. You can’t say that the NY Jets are overrated. They just suck beyond human comprehension. You can, however, say that the NY Yankees are overrated because every year they’re picked to go to the World Series and every year they fall short. Very short. EVERY F’N YEAR! Sigh.

Ouch. That one hurt BUT we may get some dude named Rodgers to lead us to the promised land.
Gobigred
Joewillie78

joewillie78 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 7:07 pm

Henpecked wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 6:46 pm Exactly. You can’t say that the NY Jets are overrated. They just suck beyond human comprehension. You can, however, say that the NY Yankees are overrated because every year they’re picked to go to the World Series and every year they fall short. Very short. EVERY F’N YEAR! Sigh.

Ouch. That one hurt BUT we may get some dude named Rodgers to lead us to the promised land.
Gobigred
Joewillie78

Aaron Rogers is overrated!

joewillie78 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 7:07 pm

Henpecked wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 6:46 pm Exactly. You can’t say that the NY Jets are overrated. They just suck beyond human comprehension. You can, however, say that the NY Yankees are overrated because every year they’re picked to go to the World Series and every year they fall short. Very short. EVERY F’N YEAR! Sigh.

Ouch. That one hurt BUT we may get some dude named Rodgers to lead us to the promised land.
Gobigred
Joewillie78

I live in Indiana and have been a Colts fan since I moved here (they drafted a little-known quarterback named Manning the year we moved here; we both made the move from Knoxville to Indiana at the same time).

Anyway, the Colts have spent half a decade signing over-the-hill QBs as free agents. Still waiting for that return to the promised land.

ICGrad wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 7:38 pm

joewillie78 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 7:07 pm

Henpecked wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 6:46 pm Exactly. You can’t say that the NY Jets are overrated. They just suck beyond human comprehension. You can, however, say that the NY Yankees are overrated because every year they’re picked to go to the World Series and every year they fall short. Very short. EVERY F’N YEAR! Sigh.

Ouch. That one hurt BUT we may get some dude named Rodgers to lead us to the promised land.
Gobigred
Joewillie78

I live in Indiana and have been a Colts fan since I moved here (they drafted a little-known quarterback named Manning they years we moved here; we both made the move from Knoxville to Indiana at the same time).

Anyway, the Colts have spent half a decade signing over-the-hill QBs as free agents. Still waiting for that return to the promised land.

You have no right to complain after 20+ years of Manning and then lucking into Luck after the Manning year off. Luck retiring was bad luck, but you have about 50 more years of disappointment to compare to us Jets fans.

Chousnake wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 7:55 pm

You have no right to complain after 20+ years of Manning and then lucking into Luck after the Manning year off. Luck retiring was bad luck, but you have about 50 more years of disappointment to compare to us Jets fans.

Fair enough. Just pointing out that the "rent-a-geezer" plan may not be as rosy as it seems.

joewillie78 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 7:07 pm

Henpecked wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 6:46 pm Exactly. You can’t say that the NY Jets are overrated. They just suck beyond human comprehension…

Ouch. That one hurt …
Gobigred
Joewillie78

Oops, sorry, my mistake; I thought this was the Ivy League thread, but I must be off by one letter, because it seems it's actually the NY Jets thread ...

CU77 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 8:41 pm Oops, sorry, my mistake; I thought this was the Ivy League thread, but I must be off by one letter, because it seems it's actually the NY Jets thread ...

After this weekend I can't blame the thread for going off-topic a bit. If I need positivity I'll head over to the Yale and Dartmouth!!! threads.

Typical Lax Dad wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 7:09 pm

joewillie78 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 7:07 pm

Henpecked wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 6:46 pm Exactly. You can’t say that the NY Jets are overrated. They just suck beyond human comprehension. You can, however, say that the NY Yankees are overrated because every year they’re picked to go to the World Series and every year they fall short. Very short. EVERY F’N YEAR! Sigh.

Ouch. That one hurt BUT we may get some dude named Rodgers to lead us to the promised land.
Gobigred
Joewillie78

Aaron Rogers is overrated!

Compared to;
Zach Wilson
Sam Darnold
Browning Nagle
Joe Flacco
Mark Sanchez
Fitzmagic
Mcaelroy
And on and on.

We haven't had a Qb who could hit the planet earth with a pass in 20 years.

I don't care if the dude is hitting 40 this year, he is an actual NFL QB who actually knows how to read defenses, can make all the throws and makes everyone around him better. Please JETS, sign Rodgers now.

Gobigred
Joewillie78

joewillie78 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 9:03 pm

Typical Lax Dad wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 7:09 pm

joewillie78 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 7:07 pm

Henpecked wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 6:46 pm Exactly. You can’t say that the NY Jets are overrated. They just suck beyond human comprehension. You can, however, say that the NY Yankees are overrated because every year they’re picked to go to the World Series and every year they fall short. Very short. EVERY F’N YEAR! Sigh.

Ouch. That one hurt BUT we may get some dude named Rodgers to lead us to the promised land.
Gobigred
Joewillie78

Aaron Rogers is overrated!

Compared to;
Zach Wilson
Sam Darnold
Browning Nagle
Joe Flacco
Mark Sanchez
Fitzmagic
Mcaelroy
And on and on.

We haven't had a Qb who could hit the planet earth with a pass in 20 years.

I don't care if the dude is hitting 40 this year, he is an actual NFL QB who actually knows how to read defenses, can make all the throws and makes everyone around him better. Please JETS, sign Rodgers now.

Gobigred
Joewillie78

You forgot Ray Ray Lucas!