All things CoronaVirus

[Typical Lax Dad]

6foot, where are you getting .6%? Based on the current Johns Hopkins numbers (187,392 cases and 3892 deaths), the percent is just over 2%. It has been creeping up over the past week. Was around 1.5% but has been steadily increasing. This is consistent with what Pence just said which is that the United States situation most closely compares to Italy’s. Yes, the actual rate is likely lower than 2% since, as many note, some number of people have the disease but haven’t been tested. But based on the numbers we actually have, the current rate is about 2%, not 0.6%.

It was mentioned in an article as a potential lower threshold with certain assumptions regarding carriers that have not been tested. Maybe 0.66% which is more than 6x the flu. The flu killed 50,000. 6 x 50,000 = 300,000.

[6ftstick]

6foot, where are you getting .6%? Based on the current Johns Hopkins numbers (187,392 cases and 3892 deaths), the percent is just over 2%. It has been creeping up over the past week. Was around 1.5% but has been steadily increasing. This is consistent with what Pence just said which is that the United States situation most closely compares to Italy’s. Yes, the actual rate is likely lower than 2% since, as many note, some number of people have the disease but haven’t been tested. But based on the numbers we actually have, the current rate is about 2%, not 0.6%.

The overall mortality rate for the novel coronavirus disease COVID-19—after taking into account both confirmed and unconfirmed positive cases—is about 0.66%, a new study has found. The figure is significantly lower than all the previous estimates, including a report from the World Health Organisation (WHO) that suggested a death rate around 3 to 4.

This study, conducted by UK-based researchers from Imperial College London, was published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases journal on March 30. The model-based study analysed data from 70,117 lab-confirmed and clinically diagnosed COVID-19 cases from China, along with 689 evacuees from Wuhan.

[jhu72]

Trump should be applauded for this.

[MDlaxfan76]

Humanity is a winner, always! Respectable infectious disease specialist in SF says he has cure; JHU72 sure to demean this fellow shortly.


https://www.cbs8.com/article/news/healt ... d49d20bebf

Assume you are asking for my input, or am I just in your head?

Your prediction is wrong (as usual). Solid approach by reputable people that understand the process (not trying to go around it). May work out.

You mean to say you support actual scientists and doctors going through actual trials and procedures to developing a safe and effective treatment? That's just crazy liberal talk.

For PB and others - these guys are working on a treatment (not a vaccine) that if initially found to be effective and safe, will be available in September for compassionate use only until additional trials occur. It would take a while longer for it to be released to the public.

If this works, it will be great for people who already have the virus, and the treatment may keep doctors and nurses safe for a few weeks. We'll still need a vaccine for longer term immunity.

Interestingly (because of his recent Op-Ed) Bill Gates seems to have some faith in that company - their foundation gave them a $1M grant back in November to do studies on a universal flu vaccine.

Exactly. This is the right sort of approach, but it will take time before actually available, if it actually works.

I was talking with an ex Novartis guy last night...he warned that a vaccine might not ever work ala the common cold. Apparently there are also 8 variations now found of the virus, so we don't also know whether we really will be able to build up immunity. So, he warns that even with the very best science, we need some real luck on this.

[6ftstick]

Humanity is a winner, always! Respectable infectious disease specialist in SF says he has cure; JHU72 sure to demean this fellow shortly.


https://www.cbs8.com/article/news/healt ... d49d20bebf

Assume you are asking for my input, or am I just in your head?

Your prediction is wrong (as usual). Solid approach by reputable people that understand the process (not trying to go around it). May work out.

You mean to say you support actual scientists and doctors going through actual trials and procedures to developing a safe and effective treatment? That's just crazy liberal talk.

For PB and others - these guys are working on a treatment (not a vaccine) that if initially found to be effective and safe, will be available in September for compassionate use only until additional trials occur. It would take a while longer for it to be released to the public.

If this works, it will be great for people who already have the virus, and the treatment may keep doctors and nurses safe for a few weeks. We'll still need a vaccine for longer term immunity.

Interestingly (because of his recent Op-Ed) Bill Gates seems to have some faith in that company - their foundation gave them a $1M grant back in November to do studies on a universal flu vaccine.

Exactly. This is the right sort of approach, but it will take time before actually available, if it actually works.

I was talking with an ex Novartis guy last night...he warned that a vaccine might not ever work ala the common cold. Apparently there are also 8 variations now found of the virus, so we don't also know whether we really will be able to build up immunity. So, he warns that even with the very best science, we need some real luck on this.

OK then skippy. What actions could anyone have taken to affect this virus other than what's been done and is being done

[MDlaxfan76]

6foot, where are you getting .6%? Based on the current Johns Hopkins numbers (187,392 cases and 3892 deaths), the percent is just over 2%. It has been creeping up over the past week. Was around 1.5% but has been steadily increasing. This is consistent with what Pence just said which is that the United States situation most closely compares to Italy’s. Yes, the actual rate is likely lower than 2% since, as many note, some number of people have the disease but haven’t been tested. But based on the numbers we actually have, the current rate is about 2%, not 0.6%.

The overall mortality rate for the novel coronavirus disease COVID-19—after taking into account both confirmed and unconfirmed positive cases—is about 0.66%, a new study has found. The figure is significantly lower than all the previous estimates, including a report from the World Health Organisation (WHO) that suggested a death rate around 3 to 4.

This study, conducted by UK-based researchers from Imperial College London, was published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases journal on March 30. The model-based study analysed data from 70,117 lab-confirmed and clinically diagnosed COVID-19 cases from China, along with 689 evacuees from Wuhan.

Actually, no, the study added in an estimate of unconfirmed cases to arrive at the 0.6% estimate. That's been what we've been saying may well be the case, given that the scientists think there are lots of asymptomatic cases not yet detected. So, 5-20 X the mortality rate of seasonal flu's. And if health systems are overwhelmed, much worse.

The overall mortality rate for the novel coronavirus disease COVID-19—after taking into account both confirmed and unconfirmed positive cases—is about 0.66%, a new study has found. The figure is significantly lower than all the previous estimates, including a report from the World Health Organisation (WHO) that suggested a death rate around 3 to 4.

This study, conducted by UK-based researchers from Imperial College London, was published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases journal on March 30. The model-based study analysed data from 70,117 lab-confirmed and clinically diagnosed COVID-19 cases from China, along with 689 evacuees from Wuhan.

The researchers also adjusted their parametres to include undiagnosed positive COVID-19 cases and population size into their calculations—something the previous studies had failed to consider. As only people with distinguishable symptoms tend to get tested, the people with mild symptoms, asymptomatic infections, and undiagnosed cases often go under the radar.

Following the inclusion of confirmed as well as unconfirmed positive cases of the novel coronavirus, the overall, combined death rate of COVID-19 fell down to 0.66%. Furthermore, the mortality rate of just the confirmed coronavirus cases was found to be around 1.38%—much lower than the earlier estimates, which put it between 2% and 8%.

[MDlaxfan76]

Humanity is a winner, always! Respectable infectious disease specialist in SF says he has cure; JHU72 sure to demean this fellow shortly.


https://www.cbs8.com/article/news/healt ... d49d20bebf

Assume you are asking for my input, or am I just in your head?

Your prediction is wrong (as usual). Solid approach by reputable people that understand the process (not trying to go around it). May work out.

You mean to say you support actual scientists and doctors going through actual trials and procedures to developing a safe and effective treatment? That's just crazy liberal talk.

For PB and others - these guys are working on a treatment (not a vaccine) that if initially found to be effective and safe, will be available in September for compassionate use only until additional trials occur. It would take a while longer for it to be released to the public.

If this works, it will be great for people who already have the virus, and the treatment may keep doctors and nurses safe for a few weeks. We'll still need a vaccine for longer term immunity.

Interestingly (because of his recent Op-Ed) Bill Gates seems to have some faith in that company - their foundation gave them a $1M grant back in November to do studies on a universal flu vaccine.

Exactly. This is the right sort of approach, but it will take time before actually available, if it actually works.

I was talking with an ex Novartis guy last night...he warned that a vaccine might not ever work ala the common cold. Apparently there are also 8 variations now found of the virus, so we don't also know whether we really will be able to build up immunity. So, he warns that even with the very best science, we need some real luck on this.

OK then skippy. What actions could anyone have taken to affect this virus other than what's been done and is being done

"skippy"?

I already answered this question for you, 6ft, as have others. Exhaustively.
Read the thread, please.

[jhu72]

6foot, where are you getting .6%? Based on the current Johns Hopkins numbers (187,392 cases and 3892 deaths), the percent is just over 2%. It has been creeping up over the past week. Was around 1.5% but has been steadily increasing. This is consistent with what Pence just said which is that the United States situation most closely compares to Italy’s. Yes, the actual rate is likely lower than 2% since, as many note, some number of people have the disease but haven’t been tested. But based on the numbers we actually have, the current rate is about 2%, not 0.6%.

It was mentioned in an article as a potential lower threshold with certain assumptions regarding carriers that have not been tested. Maybe 0.66% which is more than 6x the flu. The flu killed 50,000. 6 x 50,000 = 300,000.

Yes, it is the mortality rate (a guesstimate) in a first world country that is practicing "standard of care" medicine. It is still 10 times an average flu year. Very few countries at the end of the day are seeing that or are capable of it. This is most definitely not the case when you are overrunning hospitals or trying to practice SOC when supplies and equipment are non-existent or in short supply in a environment where there is no herd immunity.

[6ftstick]

6foot, where are you getting .6%? Based on the current Johns Hopkins numbers (187,392 cases and 3892 deaths), the percent is just over 2%. It has been creeping up over the past week. Was around 1.5% but has been steadily increasing. This is consistent with what Pence just said which is that the United States situation most closely compares to Italy’s. Yes, the actual rate is likely lower than 2% since, as many note, some number of people have the disease but haven’t been tested. But based on the numbers we actually have, the current rate is about 2%, not 0.6%.

The overall mortality rate for the novel coronavirus disease COVID-19—after taking into account both confirmed and unconfirmed positive cases—is about 0.66%, a new study has found. The figure is significantly lower than all the previous estimates, including a report from the World Health Organisation (WHO) that suggested a death rate around 3 to 4.

This study, conducted by UK-based researchers from Imperial College London, was published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases journal on March 30. The model-based study analysed data from 70,117 lab-confirmed and clinically diagnosed COVID-19 cases from China, along with 689 evacuees from Wuhan.

Actually, no, the study added in an estimate of unconfirmed cases to arrive at the 0.6% estimate. That's been what we've been saying may well be the case, given that the scientists think there are lots of asymptomatic cases not yet detected. SO because I said it its wrong

The overall mortality rate for the novel coronavirus disease COVID-19—after taking into account both confirmed and unconfirmed positive cases—is about 0.66%, a new study has found. The figure is significantly lower than all the previous estimates, including a report from the World Health Organisation (WHO) that suggested a death rate around 3 to 4.

This study, conducted by UK-based researchers from Imperial College London, was published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases journal on March 30. The model-based study analysed data from 70,117 lab-confirmed and clinically diagnosed COVID-19 cases from China, along with 689 evacuees from Wuhan.

The researchers also adjusted their parametres to include undiagnosed positive COVID-19 cases and population size into their calculations—something the previous studies had failed to consider. As only people with distinguishable symptoms tend to get tested, the people with mild symptoms, asymptomatic infections, and undiagnosed cases often go under the radar.

[b]Following the inclusion of confirmed as well as unconfirmed positive cases of the novel coronavirus, the overall, combined death rate of COVID-19 fell down to 0.66%. Furthermore, the mortality rate of just the confirmed coronavirus cases was found to be around 1.38%—much lower than the earlier estimates, which put it between 2% and 8%.[/b]

[Matnum PI]

Florida cruise ship. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/cr ... m-n1173576

[DocBarrister]

According to Vice President Pence, we are the new Italy, which means we are the new standard of failure in this pandemic.

Pence says Italy may be closest comparison now to coronavirus situation in U.S.

Vice President Pence issued a dire prediction Wednesday about the coronavirus pandemic, saying that the trajectory for the United States at the moment most closely resembles that of Italy, one of the countries hardest hit by the virus.

“We think Italy may be the most comparable area to the United States at this point,” Pence said in an interview on CNN, one day after the White House projected that as many as 240,000 people may die from the virus in the United States.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... DMDOT7Y44U

Why is the Trump administration beginning to be more truthful?

With great respect to grieving families, the answer is simple ... it’s hard to lie when the bodies start piling up.

My condolences to those families who have lost loved ones to this pandemic.

DocBarrister

[MDlaxfan76]

6foot, where are you getting .6%? Based on the current Johns Hopkins numbers (187,392 cases and 3892 deaths), the percent is just over 2%. It has been creeping up over the past week. Was around 1.5% but has been steadily increasing. This is consistent with what Pence just said which is that the United States situation most closely compares to Italy’s. Yes, the actual rate is likely lower than 2% since, as many note, some number of people have the disease but haven’t been tested. But based on the numbers we actually have, the current rate is about 2%, not 0.6%.

The overall mortality rate for the novel coronavirus disease COVID-19—after taking into account both confirmed and unconfirmed positive cases—is about 0.66%, a new study has found. The figure is significantly lower than all the previous estimates, including a report from the World Health Organisation (WHO) that suggested a death rate around 3 to 4.

This study, conducted by UK-based researchers from Imperial College London, was published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases journal on March 30. The model-based study analysed data from 70,117 lab-confirmed and clinically diagnosed COVID-19 cases from China, along with 689 evacuees from Wuhan.

Actually, no, the study added in an estimate of unconfirmed cases to arrive at the 0.6% estimate. That's been what we've been saying may well be the case, given that the scientists think there are lots of asymptomatic cases not yet detected. SO because I said it its wrong

The overall mortality rate for the novel coronavirus disease COVID-19—after taking into account both confirmed and unconfirmed positive cases—is about 0.66%, a new study has found. The figure is significantly lower than all the previous estimates, including a report from the World Health Organisation (WHO) that suggested a death rate around 3 to 4.

This study, conducted by UK-based researchers from Imperial College London, was published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases journal on March 30. The model-based study analysed data from 70,117 lab-confirmed and clinically diagnosed COVID-19 cases from China, along with 689 evacuees from Wuhan.

The researchers also adjusted their parametres to include undiagnosed positive COVID-19 cases and population size into their calculations—something the previous studies had failed to consider. As only people with distinguishable symptoms tend to get tested, the people with mild symptoms, asymptomatic infections, and undiagnosed cases often go under the radar.

[b]Following the inclusion of confirmed as well as unconfirmed positive cases of the novel coronavirus, the overall, combined death rate of COVID-19 fell down to 0.66%. Furthermore, the mortality rate of just the confirmed coronavirus cases was found to be around 1.38%—much lower than the earlier estimates, which put it between 2% and 8%.[/b]

6ft, I never said the 0.6% was inaccurate. someone else asked where you got that #.

It includes an estimate of unconfirmed incidence of the disease.

I too had cited that 0.6% as possible. We've been saying that could be the case for a couple of weeks...under certain assumptions.

But that's 5-20X the seasonal flu and only, as another poster just pointed out, in first world health systems and only if they don't become overwhelmed.

Italy has a first world health system with more beds per capita than the US...overwhelmed. We're on the cusp of this in multiple areas of the US, surely a first world health system, right?

In third world health systems and in countries with dense, poor populations we are likely to see much greater mortality. Could be a very rough summer (fall/winter) for much of the Southern Hemisphere.

[Peter Brown]

Florida cruise ship. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/cr ... m-n1173576

It's not a "Florida" cruise ship, Rip van Winkle. It was launched in Argentina and was doing a So American cruise. Most pax are South Americans.

Anyway, before all you yokels bellyache about my Gov, please note that the federal government has told the ship's owners they can not disembark unless the local port assumes all liability. That local port is run by Broward County (the Florida of Florida), more specifically the Mayor of Ft. Lauderdale (not our best).

I say, let the Americans disembark into strict quarantine, then back to the seas you go! (ps: the cruise ship industry will not exist except for very high end services after this is all said and done)

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronaviru ... -u-s-ports

[old salt]

Florida cruise ship. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/cr ... m-n1173576

The Broward County Commission is deciding whether or not to allow the ship to come into Ft Lauderdale.
They're examining ballots for hanging chads to see if the motion was approved or declined.
Trump should be able to allow the ship to tie up in Naval Station Mayport. Their pier can handle an aircraft carrier.
8000 ft runway to fly out the healthy, negative passengers.
Good place to try out the new Abbot point of care test gizmos.

[ardilla secreta]

Toronto has just announced that all public events are banned to June 30th. I’d say we’re in this for the long run.

I don’t see any end of quarantines for a month after a federal lockdown, whenever that happens. My biggest concerns are for the attrition of healthcare workers due to overuse and lack of essential supplies. Also for what will happen when food market workers start becoming sick which could lead to temporary shutdowns and reduced hours which would in turn lead to more panic buying. Civil unrest, especially in low income areas that lack services, could be troublesome made worse by reduced police, fire and EMT services due to illness.

[Peter Brown]

Florida cruise ship. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/cr ... m-n1173576

The Broward County Commission is deciding whether or not to allow the ship to come into Ft Lauderdale.
They're examining ballots for hanging chads to see if the motion was approved or declined.
Trump should be able to allow the ship to tie up in Naval Station Mayport. Their pier can handle an aircraft carrier.
8000 ft runway to fly out the healthy, negative passengers.
Good place to try out the new Abbot point of care test gizmos.

These are mostly So Americans. The countries down there refused the ships to enter their countries, with their own citizens.

The Mayor really has final say so...he tells the Commission what to do. Broward and Ft Lauderdale are awful...the Mayor is a piece of work. Yes, Democrat. Yes, super liberal. It will be interesting to see what he ultimately says or decides.

[jhu72]

Some Liberty University students appear to be "getting religion" about COVID-19.

[MDlaxfan76]

Toronto has just announced that all public events are banned to June 30th. I’d say we’re in this for the long run.

I don’t see any end of quarantines for a month after a federal lockdown, whenever that happens. My biggest concerns are for the attrition of healthcare workers due to overuse and lack of essential supplies. Also for what will happen when food market workers start becoming sick which could lead to temporary shutdowns and reduced hours which would in turn lead to more panic buying. Civil unrest, especially in low income areas that lack services, could be troublesome made worse by reduced police, fire and EMT services due to illness.

my concerns as well.

[njbill]

Thanks, gents. I missed that. I guess I am not watching enough TV. Better up it to 16 hours a day.

So the study is based on Chinese experience which may or may not be transferable to the US.

I focus more on the US death rate. Saw an article on CNN that the number of cases here could be 30-50% higher than those reported. So if you increase the current reported number of 187,392 by 50%, you get 281,088. Using current deaths of 3892, that gives you a death rate of about 1.4%.

I hope, and everyone hopes, the death rate will be as low as possible. Just trying to get my arms around this. Not trying to pick a fight. I’ll come up with an idea for that later in the day no doubt.

[ggait]

OK then skippy. What actions could anyone have taken to affect this virus other than what's been done and is being done.

"The history of failure can almost be summed up in two words: too late." Douglas MacArthur.

The biggest biff was denying, diminishing, minimizing, under-reacting, ignoring, bull shirting and generally doing too little, too late. Many were guilty of not taking it seriously enough early enough. Who knows what the impact has been (since most people have learned to not rely on Trump's BS), but Trump's behavior and public statements are just egregiously horrible. He kept up with the denial/happy talk/hoax/bull shirt long after other laggards saw the looming crisis and got it in gear. There's simply no excuse for it. Any CEO acting like that would have been canned in a NY minute.

More specifically, the U.S. biffed by not doing exactly what the Asian countries did. Act earlier. Act much more seriously. Stood up testing very fast. Track contacts. Made everyone wear masks/gloves in public. Etc. etc. etc.

Those Asian countries will end up with much lower economic damage and deaths than us.