Re: School Closings
Posted: Mon Jul 13, 2020 10:07 pm
Patriot League cancelled fall sports.
xxxxxxx wrote: ↑Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:29 pm Big East playing fall sports, conference games only. I'll take this as good news especially compared to other conferences.
https://www.bigeast.com/news/2020/7/16/ ... plans.aspx
This and big10 plus I'm sure other power 5 conference following suit is huge on athletics budgets of smaller D-1 schools. Not to mention the power 5 which lose a significant number of home games. A lot of smaller schools pad their athletic budgets by agreeing to play away games only with power 5 schools. For example. Idaho got 1.45 million to play at PSU. And it might be two games that they do it a year. Significant part of their budget. Lacrosse schools examples this year Rchmond at Pitt or Delaware at NC State. Not sure of payouts but sure it helps the budgets.xxxxxxx wrote: ↑Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:29 pm Big East playing fall sports, conference games only. I'll take this as good news especially compared to other conferences.
https://www.bigeast.com/news/2020/7/16/ ... plans.aspx
The CAA is not out, that CAA directive is really for football which isn’t a money maker at that level.
thanks. i had seen this a while back, and would like to go through it more detail when i can... who knows how much i'd be able to make heads or tails of all the details, it's pretty in depth. if i had to make a wager on outcomes... given all the information i've tried to take in... unless normal herd immunity thresholds given for the high transmissability of this virus are just way, way off... my wager would be that there is a significant portion of the population that may have natural immunity, cross reactive or some other form. or put another way, they have reactions that are better, quicker, more extinguishing with their t-cells (and maybe antibodies) than even show up as having "gotten sick" or had the virus in their body at all (measurably).pcowlax wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 12:26 pm Impossible to predict what administrators will do and what they will consider acceptable risk and infection rates to proceed on campus but this article is fascinating, corresponds well with anecdotal data that has been floating around, would be complementary with the low nasal/pulmonary ACE2 density in kids in explaining the extremely low infection rates they have demonstrated and fits with the absence to date of any real second wave anywhere in the world in a place that has had a large outbreak. Prediction has been a fools errand for much of this pandemic and this is NOT to say it is just going to go away or not have rates somewhat increase again in areas that were previously hard hit but MIGHT be very good news for next year. Progress in vaccines is superficially encouraging but no data at all yet on actual effectiveness (as opposed to efficacy). While they may help with outcomes, therapeutics will almost certainly play no role in getting g things back closer to normal.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... via%3Dihub
Happy to chat about it here or PM, I try to stay out of the non-lax boards to maintain my equanimity. Discussing the medicine/science isn’t lax related per se of course but I’ll try to keep any opinions out of it and just focus on what I see the medical developments as meaning for potential future seasons.wgdsr wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 1:44 pmthanks. i had seen this a while back, and would like to go through it more detail when i can... who knows how much i'd be able to make heads or tails of all the details, it's pretty in depth. if i had to make a wager on outcomes... given all the information i've tried to take in... unless normal herd immunity thresholds given for the high transmissability of this virus are just way, way off... my wager would be that there is a significant portion of the population that may have natural immunity, cross reactive or some other form. or put another way, they have reactions that are better, quicker, more extinguishing with their t-cells (and maybe antibodies) than even show up as having "gotten sick" or had the virus in their body at all (measurably).pcowlax wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 12:26 pm Impossible to predict what administrators will do and what they will consider acceptable risk and infection rates to proceed on campus but this article is fascinating, corresponds well with anecdotal data that has been floating around, would be complementary with the low nasal/pulmonary ACE2 density in kids in explaining the extremely low infection rates they have demonstrated and fits with the absence to date of any real second wave anywhere in the world in a place that has had a large outbreak. Prediction has been a fools errand for much of this pandemic and this is NOT to say it is just going to go away or not have rates somewhat increase again in areas that were previously hard hit but MIGHT be very good news for next year. Progress in vaccines is superficially encouraging but no data at all yet on actual effectiveness (as opposed to efficacy). While they may help with outcomes, therapeutics will almost certainly play no role in getting g things back closer to normal.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... via%3Dihub
just as asymptomatic, mild or moderate folks have shown a better ability to control, eventually extinguish the infection than those of more severe cases... a group that gets a viral load and it's eradicated very quickly. maybe where antibodies aren't detected (b cells), and t cells are called up and don't allow for what we know as measurable infection at least. and they aren't carriers as a result.
if that's a significant portion of the population, that lessens the hit number down to much lower numbers (15? 20%?) of measurable infected/carriers, potentially that drives the ro under one, and maybe significantly under 1. that to me aligns with a lot of data that has transpired in swings up and down. there are a lot of moving parts with mitigation efforts that muddy the waters, but that's where i see things, if i had to wager on it. with optimism sprinkled on top.
how long any immunity lasts for some/all, virus mutating are other questions. i'm not sure we are anywhere yet on really measuring therapeutics or prophylaxis, really disappointing how little has come out yet in studies/trials. that might change, but my only discouragement hasn't been on effectiveness but by how slowly trials/studies have come along.
Happy to chat about it here or PM, I try to stay out of the non-lax boards to maintain my equanimity. Discussing the medicine/science isn’t lax related per se of course but I’ll try to keep any opinions out of it and just focus on what I see the medical developments as meaning for potential future seasons.wgdsr wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 1:44 pmthanks. i had seen this a while back, and would like to go through it more detail when i can... who knows how much i'd be able to make heads or tails of all the details, it's pretty in depth. if i had to make a wager on outcomes... given all the information i've tried to take in... unless normal herd immunity thresholds given for the high transmissability of this virus are just way, way off... my wager would be that there is a significant portion of the population that may have natural immunity, cross reactive or some other form. or put another way, they have reactions that are better, quicker, more extinguishing with their t-cells (and maybe antibodies) than even show up as having "gotten sick" or had the virus in their body at all (measurably).pcowlax wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 12:26 pm Impossible to predict what administrators will do and what they will consider acceptable risk and infection rates to proceed on campus but this article is fascinating, corresponds well with anecdotal data that has been floating around, would be complementary with the low nasal/pulmonary ACE2 density in kids in explaining the extremely low infection rates they have demonstrated and fits with the absence to date of any real second wave anywhere in the world in a place that has had a large outbreak. Prediction has been a fools errand for much of this pandemic and this is NOT to say it is just going to go away or not have rates somewhat increase again in areas that were previously hard hit but MIGHT be very good news for next year. Progress in vaccines is superficially encouraging but no data at all yet on actual effectiveness (as opposed to efficacy). While they may help with outcomes, therapeutics will almost certainly play no role in getting g things back closer to normal.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... via%3Dihub
just as asymptomatic, mild or moderate folks have shown a better ability to control, eventually extinguish the infection than those of more severe cases... a group that gets a viral load and it's eradicated very quickly. maybe where antibodies aren't detected (b cells), and t cells are called up and don't allow for what we know as measurable infection at least. and they aren't carriers as a result.
if that's a significant portion of the population, that lessens the hit number down to much lower numbers (15? 20%?) of measurable infected/carriers, potentially that drives the ro under one, and maybe significantly under 1. that to me aligns with a lot of data that has transpired in swings up and down. there are a lot of moving parts with mitigation efforts that muddy the waters, but that's where i see things, if i had to wager on it. with optimism sprinkled on top.
how long any immunity lasts for some/all, virus mutating are other questions. i'm not sure we are anywhere yet on really measuring therapeutics or prophylaxis, really disappointing how little has come out yet in studies/trials. that might change, but my only discouragement hasn't been on effectiveness but by how slowly trials/studies have come along.