School Closings

[Matnum PI]

Patriot League cancelled fall sports.

[xxxxxxx]

This is great news and what we need for things to go back to normal, including a full Spring Lacrosse Season. I also read where other prominent Pharma companies may be even closer.

https://time.com/5864690/pfizer-vaccine-coronavirus/

[xxxxxxx]

Big East playing fall sports, conference games only. I'll take this as good news especially compared to other conferences.

https://www.bigeast.com/news/2020/7/16/ ... plans.aspx

[Parputt]

Big East playing fall sports, conference games only. I'll take this as good news especially compared to other conferences.

https://www.bigeast.com/news/2020/7/16/ ... plans.aspx

Only a matter of time before this too changes.

[FMUBart]

The sky is falling, the sky is falling!

[Parputt]

The sky is falling, the sky is falling!

And apparently it can only be stopped if we have fall sports.

[Hunter]

Big East playing fall sports, conference games only. I'll take this as good news especially compared to other conferences.

https://www.bigeast.com/news/2020/7/16/ ... plans.aspx

This and big10 plus I'm sure other power 5 conference following suit is huge on athletics budgets of smaller D-1 schools. Not to mention the power 5 which lose a significant number of home games. A lot of smaller schools pad their athletic budgets by agreeing to play away games only with power 5 schools. For example. Idaho got 1.45 million to play at PSU. And it might be two games that they do it a year. Significant part of their budget. Lacrosse schools examples this year Rchmond at Pitt or Delaware at NC State. Not sure of payouts but sure it helps the budgets.

While better than nothing, its going to have huge impacts.

[Wheels]

CAA apparently cancelling fall sports. Gotta think the rest of the FCS football conferences will, too.

[FMUBart]

The sky is falling, the sky is falling!

And apparently it can only be stopped if we have fall sports.

Stay in your bubble!

[Parputt]

The sky is falling, the sky is falling!

And apparently it can only be stopped if we have fall sports.

Stay in your bubble!

Oh good one...

[10stone5]

CAA apparently cancelling fall sports. Gotta think the rest of the FCS football conferences will, too.

I think its just football right now, so not all the
schools impacted, crew is up and running from
what I’ve seen.

[bauer4429]

Ok so now Ivy, Patriot, AEC, and CAA leagues are out and it looks like a few have pushed off the decision. Certainly not looking good. Sadly I think we will see more colleges drop sports.

[pcowlax]

Impossible to predict what administrators will do and what they will consider acceptable risk and infection rates to proceed on campus but this article is fascinating, corresponds well with anecdotal data that has been floating around, would be complementary with the low nasal/pulmonary ACE2 density in kids in explaining the extremely low infection rates they have demonstrated and fits with the absence to date of any real second wave anywhere in the world in a place that has had a large outbreak. Prediction has been a fools errand for much of this pandemic and this is NOT to say it is just going to go away or not have rates somewhat increase again in areas that were previously hard hit but MIGHT be very good news for next year. Progress in vaccines is superficially encouraging but no data at all yet on actual effectiveness (as opposed to efficacy). While they may help with outcomes, therapeutics will almost certainly play no role in getting g things back closer to normal.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... via%3Dihub

[10stone5]

Ok so now Ivy, Patriot, AEC, and CAA leagues are out and it looks like a few have pushed off the decision. Certainly not looking good. Sadly I think we will see more colleges drop sports.

The CAA is not out, that CAA directive is really for football which isn’t a money maker at that level.
The PA guv shut down the PA schools so they’re hamstrung, other schools do not have to shut down, except for football.

That Inquirer piece is wrong, the article was written by some kid.

[wgdsr]

Impossible to predict what administrators will do and what they will consider acceptable risk and infection rates to proceed on campus but this article is fascinating, corresponds well with anecdotal data that has been floating around, would be complementary with the low nasal/pulmonary ACE2 density in kids in explaining the extremely low infection rates they have demonstrated and fits with the absence to date of any real second wave anywhere in the world in a place that has had a large outbreak. Prediction has been a fools errand for much of this pandemic and this is NOT to say it is just going to go away or not have rates somewhat increase again in areas that were previously hard hit but MIGHT be very good news for next year. Progress in vaccines is superficially encouraging but no data at all yet on actual effectiveness (as opposed to efficacy). While they may help with outcomes, therapeutics will almost certainly play no role in getting g things back closer to normal.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... via%3Dihub

thanks. i had seen this a while back, and would like to go through it more detail when i can... who knows how much i'd be able to make heads or tails of all the details, it's pretty in depth. if i had to make a wager on outcomes... given all the information i've tried to take in... unless normal herd immunity thresholds given for the high transmissability of this virus are just way, way off... my wager would be that there is a significant portion of the population that may have natural immunity, cross reactive or some other form. or put another way, they have reactions that are better, quicker, more extinguishing with their t-cells (and maybe antibodies) than even show up as having "gotten sick" or had the virus in their body at all (measurably).

just as asymptomatic, mild or moderate folks have shown a better ability to control, eventually extinguish the infection than those of more severe cases... a group that gets a viral load and it's eradicated very quickly. maybe where antibodies aren't detected (b cells), and t cells are called up and don't allow for what we know as measurable infection at least. and they aren't carriers as a result.

if that's a significant portion of the population, that lessens the hit number down to much lower numbers (15? 20%?) of measurable infected/carriers, potentially that drives the ro under one, and maybe significantly under 1. that to me aligns with a lot of data that has transpired in swings up and down. there are a lot of moving parts with mitigation efforts that muddy the waters, but that's where i see things, if i had to wager on it. with optimism sprinkled on top.

how long any immunity lasts for some/all, virus mutating are other questions. i'm not sure we are anywhere yet on really measuring therapeutics or prophylaxis, really disappointing how little has come out yet in studies/trials. that might change, but my only discouragement hasn't been on effectiveness but by how slowly trials/studies have come along.

[bauer4429]

Looks like SWAC may have cancelled fall sports too. With fall pushed off to spring it will certainly impact spring sports. Testing will also be costly as someone posted on another feed.

[pcowlax]

Impossible to predict what administrators will do and what they will consider acceptable risk and infection rates to proceed on campus but this article is fascinating, corresponds well with anecdotal data that has been floating around, would be complementary with the low nasal/pulmonary ACE2 density in kids in explaining the extremely low infection rates they have demonstrated and fits with the absence to date of any real second wave anywhere in the world in a place that has had a large outbreak. Prediction has been a fools errand for much of this pandemic and this is NOT to say it is just going to go away or not have rates somewhat increase again in areas that were previously hard hit but MIGHT be very good news for next year. Progress in vaccines is superficially encouraging but no data at all yet on actual effectiveness (as opposed to efficacy). While they may help with outcomes, therapeutics will almost certainly play no role in getting g things back closer to normal.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... via%3Dihub

thanks. i had seen this a while back, and would like to go through it more detail when i can... who knows how much i'd be able to make heads or tails of all the details, it's pretty in depth. if i had to make a wager on outcomes... given all the information i've tried to take in... unless normal herd immunity thresholds given for the high transmissability of this virus are just way, way off... my wager would be that there is a significant portion of the population that may have natural immunity, cross reactive or some other form. or put another way, they have reactions that are better, quicker, more extinguishing with their t-cells (and maybe antibodies) than even show up as having "gotten sick" or had the virus in their body at all (measurably).

just as asymptomatic, mild or moderate folks have shown a better ability to control, eventually extinguish the infection than those of more severe cases... a group that gets a viral load and it's eradicated very quickly. maybe where antibodies aren't detected (b cells), and t cells are called up and don't allow for what we know as measurable infection at least. and they aren't carriers as a result.

if that's a significant portion of the population, that lessens the hit number down to much lower numbers (15? 20%?) of measurable infected/carriers, potentially that drives the ro under one, and maybe significantly under 1. that to me aligns with a lot of data that has transpired in swings up and down. there are a lot of moving parts with mitigation efforts that muddy the waters, but that's where i see things, if i had to wager on it. with optimism sprinkled on top.

how long any immunity lasts for some/all, virus mutating are other questions. i'm not sure we are anywhere yet on really measuring therapeutics or prophylaxis, really disappointing how little has come out yet in studies/trials. that might change, but my only discouragement hasn't been on effectiveness but by how slowly trials/studies have come along.

Happy to chat about it here or PM, I try to stay out of the non-lax boards to maintain my equanimity. Discussing the medicine/science isn’t lax related per se of course but I’ll try to keep any opinions out of it and just focus on what I see the medical developments as meaning for potential future seasons.

[pcowlax]

Impossible to predict what administrators will do and what they will consider acceptable risk and infection rates to proceed on campus but this article is fascinating, corresponds well with anecdotal data that has been floating around, would be complementary with the low nasal/pulmonary ACE2 density in kids in explaining the extremely low infection rates they have demonstrated and fits with the absence to date of any real second wave anywhere in the world in a place that has had a large outbreak. Prediction has been a fools errand for much of this pandemic and this is NOT to say it is just going to go away or not have rates somewhat increase again in areas that were previously hard hit but MIGHT be very good news for next year. Progress in vaccines is superficially encouraging but no data at all yet on actual effectiveness (as opposed to efficacy). While they may help with outcomes, therapeutics will almost certainly play no role in getting g things back closer to normal.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... via%3Dihub

thanks. i had seen this a while back, and would like to go through it more detail when i can... who knows how much i'd be able to make heads or tails of all the details, it's pretty in depth. if i had to make a wager on outcomes... given all the information i've tried to take in... unless normal herd immunity thresholds given for the high transmissability of this virus are just way, way off... my wager would be that there is a significant portion of the population that may have natural immunity, cross reactive or some other form. or put another way, they have reactions that are better, quicker, more extinguishing with their t-cells (and maybe antibodies) than even show up as having "gotten sick" or had the virus in their body at all (measurably).

just as asymptomatic, mild or moderate folks have shown a better ability to control, eventually extinguish the infection than those of more severe cases... a group that gets a viral load and it's eradicated very quickly. maybe where antibodies aren't detected (b cells), and t cells are called up and don't allow for what we know as measurable infection at least. and they aren't carriers as a result.

if that's a significant portion of the population, that lessens the hit number down to much lower numbers (15? 20%?) of measurable infected/carriers, potentially that drives the ro under one, and maybe significantly under 1. that to me aligns with a lot of data that has transpired in swings up and down. there are a lot of moving parts with mitigation efforts that muddy the waters, but that's where i see things, if i had to wager on it. with optimism sprinkled on top.

how long any immunity lasts for some/all, virus mutating are other questions. i'm not sure we are anywhere yet on really measuring therapeutics or prophylaxis, really disappointing how little has come out yet in studies/trials. that might change, but my only discouragement hasn't been on effectiveness but by how slowly trials/studies have come along.

Happy to chat about it here or PM, I try to stay out of the non-lax boards to maintain my equanimity. Discussing the medicine/science isn’t lax related per se of course but I’ll try to keep any opinions out of it and just focus on what I see the medical developments as meaning for potential future seasons.

[bauer4429]

Just wondering how colleges will handle the influx of students and athletes from hot zone states. Professional athletes need 3 negative tests to travel out of state in some areas. The MLL has put all it’s players in a bubble to compete for one week. To be honest, I hope states that have control of the virus mandate college students from hot zones test negative at least twice before traveling, or maybe mandate they must remote learn till their home states have control. States that have gotten control should not be put at risk.

[socalref]

At my son's school, he and his teammates from hot states have to be quarantined 14 days prior to class which starts 08/24. They have to be tested as soon as they arrive in state. Coordinated with the team doctor and coach.